Member Info for MikeS02

Troajan, Many thanks for the link. Have to say that I'm at a bit of a loss as to why NWG has hit the skids a bit today and over Lloyds and Barclays? Anyone with further insights would be hugely appreciated, although of course I understand the ups and downs like everyone else and if that's all it is, then so be it! Reading the minutes from the BOE and with 3 members actually voting for a 0.5% increase, then again would have thought that this would have fed into a positive for us? Didn't hear anything from the minutes suggesting 'pausing' further increases and as the US get much more aggressive and with our Inflation projected to be even higher, then I have no doubts that more increases will be on the way. We've just received our Divi, so always a bright note and as the link suggests and I think we all know, capital 'give aways' this year, will again provide more bright spots with I believe, additional special Divis at both the half year AND full year!!

Minnie - As many have commented, you may want to simply STOP commenting and providing links which are WHOLLY out of date and to be honest add very little value if at all. Who cares if Amsterdam is rising up the ranks etc - it does NOT affect us one iota - we're a 'simple bank' dependent on the UK business community and consumer - end of. PLEASE do us all a favour and STOP posting. You're clearly a Remainer, which again is YEARS OLD and it's time to move on and OUT of this forum - Good luck

Hi JABH - Many thanks for the message, which makes sense, BUT I think it's down to two key points: as I've shared previously on this forum and as mentioned by you too, I was worried that the company would be 'ultra conservative' on results day and I certainly believe that to be true, which of course doesn't help. BUT, I believe the much bigger issue is that the bank has left its full year guidance unchanged, which is CRAZY, given that pretty much all of the other banks reporting this week have 'upped' their guidance based on rate increases and the fact that we actually BEAT last year's quarter profit, which many others didn't and with the known rate increases etc etc, I strongly believe that it is this point alone that has resulted in the negative SP. That said and based on our results today, as usual we need to take the downs 'on our chin' and again once the analysts start reporting their thoughts on the banks in the coming weeks, I'm very confident that we will remain one of the best rated, with lots of buy recommendations, which will certainly drive our SP forwards. Finally and I think this happened at our full year results too - we take a hit on the results day and then when analysts have had the chance to properly digest and compare etc, then our price recovers quickly the following week!

Hi Mo, Not sure I'd get too excited right now - probably just because banking reporting in Europe has started in earnest and as such, is drawing more attention and possibly the reason for today's increase? As we know from recent days and weeks, there's quite a bit of volatility in the market, which of course affects banking stocks too. KEY for me this Friday, will be that our bank isn't overly conservative in their views on things and if we deliver against the key metrics, there could be a nice upside? As our peers are reporting before us though, any negativity of their results, could equally affect ours, so right now, simply expecting more volatility, BUT against our peers and if you've not seen it yet, please take a look at analysts forecasts for this year and beyond and think you'll be pleasantly surprised - putting in a FULL YEAR Divi of some 16p, which will be WAY ahead of our peers if it happens and together with a future buy back of over 1 BILLION shares over the next 12 months and to be signed off this Thursday at our GM, then I'm hopeful we'll continue to be ahead of the pack going forwards - hope this helps a little - by the way, if you don't know where to find the analyst consensus, simply go to the results centre and you'll see a link at the top of the page

Hi, Welcome to the party!! As always, there's lots of views on here as expected, but generally speaking and as a long term holder of this stock and buying 'extra' from time to time, would suggest that it's certainly the strongest amongst the UK facing banks - simply look at the posts for Barclays and indeed Lloyds and just from a 'sanity' point of view, think you'll be very pleased you're within the NWG family - best of wishes

hi Bob - Whilst I totally share your positivity with regards interest rate rises, I'm not so positive on what NWG will declare in the short term - interestingly, JP Morgan has just declared today and they set aside nearly $1.5 Billion against future losses and generally provisioning for the effects of significant inflation going forwards and its impact on customers and businesses - so my 'fear' is that future provisioning by NWG, who has a HUGE habit of erring on the conservative side of things, will simply knock out the positive effect of rate increases and therefore will keep our SP lower than where it should be. REALLY hope I'm wrong

Hi woody111, I too was part of the consolidation. Guess the thing to remember is that we have now some 10.6 Billion shares in circulation, whilst Lloyds has 70 Billion shares in circulation - what this means in reality in my thinking is that the bank needs to spend considerably 'less' comparatively speaking vs Lloyds to reward higher divis over time and we get a bigger bang for the buck spent on share buybacks too ie a 2 Billion share reduction for us is considerably better than the equivalent for Lloyds in % term reduction - that's my take on the matter, but hopefully others will chip in too and hope it helps

Tuneup - Don't believe you're being serious, but just incase you are - if you think our shares are problematic, just look at Barclays for instance, which has simply 'tanked' in the last couple of weeks and mainly down to its own issues. As a long terms shareholder, you have to accept the ups and downs and with a war still raging; cost of living crisis; world wide inflation and interest rates on the climb and undoubtedly in a 'big way', then this is simply a moment in time when banks are under pressure - simple as that. DON'T sell would be my advice if you're being serious, as with our strong capital; share buy backs and undoubtedly some good divis ahead, once the war is finished and other things start to work their way through the economic cycle, I would suggest that you're in one of the best UK banks going and things WILL improve - but it will take time

Brilliant news and can only get better - looking at the agenda for our annual GM in April, not only are they getting us to vote for another 5% of government shares, but ALSO an extra 10% from the open market totalling up to 1.1B shares. Today's tranche should take us down to approx 10.5B shares in circulation and with the extras as above, by the middle of 2023, we could be as low as 9B shares which would be a 25% reduction on where our share allocation stood just a few months ago and will be HUGELY beneficial for future Divis!! Certainly starting to move with momentum and it's SO GOOD that we were able to buy our own shares back from the government to take us 'private' some 14 years after the crisis!!

Scad - Totally agree and only wish Bailey would be much more consistent in his views and thinking - 'spooked' the markets a little last week when he sounded quite dovish which is simply crazy with where things stand ref inflation. I guess the good news is that over in the US, Powell etc are only getting more hawkish and its good news, because they may well force Bailey's hand with future rate hikes as of course if the US get ahead of us with rate hikes, it will weaken our currency vs the Dollar which is something that would then fuel inflation our side even more and which we wouldn't want

According to what I've read, the government still has nearly 52% voting rights, which of course until that's under 50% will still keep various investors out of our market. Assuming that the real step below will be when we hopefully buy back our next 5% slice and hopefully in the next month or two as clearly the treasury are still VERY hungry for any monies it can get right now - would also hope that when that happens, the 'pop' in share price would be quite substantial

Not sure it will today unfortunately - looks like the 'words' from the BOE are suggesting that rates will now pause for a little time and wasn't as hawkish in its sentiment - indeed one member voted to leave rates unchanged. So with our bank being the most impacted by rates and rates now being suggested to be on hold for a little while, will lose that part of momentum - next BIG momentum upwards as we all know, will be when the government's holding drops below 50% - let's hope that's not too far away

Hello Notsofastyou - I'll try my best - banks like other businesses from time to time will 'offer' coupons for money and rather than giving additional shares for this money, they'll pay those that provide the money - often in the hundreds of millions or low billions, an interest payment on often highly advantageous terms. These are only open to BIG players in the market with very deep pockets and money. So what the bank is looking to do is simply 'pay the debt off' ie the money received and any remaining interest back to the parties concerned. Is it good? Well it's good in the sense that the bank is confident in its capital position to be able to pay this off and of course for the long term, they'll no longer have to pay back any further interest - the downside is that it eats into capital, but in general terms believe it's seen as advantageous over time - so hope this helps and please if I've got anything wrong here, very happy to be corrected

Scad, whilst I'd love to share your enthusiasm, being a long term shareholder, the current situation is really nothing to do with the bank fundamentals.
Shares in banks are under significant pressure, because there is real fear of major defaults happening somewhere within the banking system and starting off some systemic losses - these may be from Russian bond defaults; Russian company defaults linked in to banks mainly in Europe and with these defaults spreading more widely to other banks - just think of the Financial Crisis back in 2008 and who would have thought that fraudulent shares bundled up and linked to the US sub prime housing market would have caused the collapse of Lehman Brothers etc etc. Additionally and with energy 'spiking', there is now real worry that the whole world will go into recession in the next few months and as we all know, recessions mean lost jobs and people being able to service their debt; reduced capital deployment from companies and again real pressure on bank balance sheets. You're right in one KEY aspect though - we have significant capital buffers available and which hopefully will 'see off' any default shocks etc - again though the downside to this is that if buffers are largely absorbed fighting off defaults, then it may take several more years to build it back up again - finally, the significant share price fall of 22% from the £2.58 high only a short few weeks ago will also possibly mean a significant delay in the government willing to off load any more shares. I SO want things to stabilise, but with this awful war just getting worse and worse, I'm currently on the downside in my thinking - I REALLY hope that I'm wrong and something comes about which fires things up again

I see a number of posts tackling Ukraine, so I'll keep WELL clear of that and simply share some 'better news'. So in the last 2 days, there have been 5 upbeat broker assessments of Nat West - Berenger; Barclays; Credit Suisse; UBS and Deutsche have all given ratings of Our perform; Over weight or Strong Buy, so undoubtedly helped to keep our price rising rather than falling right now and hopefully bodes well for the future too. Also interesting to see HSBC this morning - whilst they posted 4 times our profit and as expected, their divi was only 2 times higher converting into UK monies etc, so again, says that ours was a decent return. Finally, clearly we're not messing about with stock buy backs - if you didn't see, UBS acting on our behalf, bought back over 3 million shares yesterday and of course will be back in the market daily until the £750 million is reached - so not all bad news eh

Notsofastyou - Totally agree - in fact, I believe that the 'panic' of the West has very nearly put Putin's back against the wall so to speak and very nearly left him with no place to go, but TO invade Ukraine. The West has shared the consequence of invasion, so it needs to back off NOW and simply let Putin end his military manoeuvres and then go back to their barracks - indeed the best person I can see in dealing with this perceived crisis is the President of Ukraine - very measured; not in a panic etc etc

Great news - one FINAL push into the next month or two and we'll be private again!! Really hope it's NWG that succeeds in buying back 5% and takes us below the 50% government ownership - just think it would be a fitting scenario. Finally with regards 'safe from Ukraine' - not quite sure what you mean? With £80 BILLION of capital though, would suggest that whatever happens in Ukraine etc, we are as 'safe a bank' as can be

Hello whonew,
Afraid not - looks like it's a 1.5 Billion euro up and coming redemption of floating rate notes, so afraid nothing to do with HM government's 52% holding. My sense is that as a 'marker' after 14 years in public ownership, that it will be ourselves, ie NWB. who will ultimately buy back the next tranche of 5% and take ownership back into private hands and below the 50% mark - we can offer this from the end of March 2022 as per our shareholder agreement and as such, hopefully in the next month or two, it will be further good news! Hope this helps

Personally, I believe that they should post good results, but as always on the day, the SP will be driven by the divi announcement; future share buybacks, with the government 5% one already baked in really, but sure they will want to mention this fact; probably MOST importantly will be their updated forward thinking on future profitabilty and what they do with their outlook on NIM's - you have to think that simply based on the 0.5% movement by the BOE in the last couple of months, that this will drive this upwards and with more happening, future NIM's will increase too - Rose and the bank though seem to be ULTRA conservative and any sense of the announcement focussing on 'hard up' businesses and customers with potential more bad debt, could derail what should be one of our best yearly results for a few years - can only hope - Oh and if you didn't spot it, we are the FIRST of the big banks to announce, with the others into the following week, so again, if the message is a good one, our SP should have a significant boost

Hopefully not, as of course millions were supported by their banks during the pandemic and therefore a very different backdrop to the profligate profits and indeed illegal activities of the early and mid 2000's leading to the financial crisis. Also as you know, the corporation tax surcharge on banks was only recently reduced from 8% to 3% and specifically to help with bank competitiveness following Brexit and therefore you have to think that the government right now, are not thinking about bank windfall taxes - mind you, famous last words and all that - would hope and believe that if there are indeed bumper profits announced and hopefully going forwards too, that the government will be pleased to received payroll tax; corporation tax; the surcharge tax and of course tax on profits, all of which flow directly to the Exchequer