Member Info for MikeS02

Interestingly, 4 members voted for a 0.5% increase - PITY that one didn't come off, but because of that fact, undoubtedly keeps another 0.25% increase 'alive' for the next meeting - will also be interesting to see if the Fed actually starts off with a 0.5% rise, which would put the cat amongst the pigeons eh!! Also believe that our bank will announce a £300 million bonus payout at the full year, which will be one of the biggest since 2008, so guess looking good for divi and buying back that 5% stake off the government hopefully late March into April, which will then take us to 47% government ownership and 14 years later back into private ownership, which should provide good momentum for our SP

So with about 2.5 weeks until our full year results, just thought I'd share the following and would be great to get thoughts back - it's interesting to note that if you go onto the NWG shareholder site and look at analysts forecasts, that their FY divi payment is about 9p - so with a 3p at half year, then an end of year Divi of some 6p! What's interesting though is that the Divi is based on a NIM (net interest margin, ie basically the % profit margin the bank makes for those who might not know) where NO changes have been made based on the BOE base rate changes. So assuming that the BOE raises interest rates again this coming Thursday, which has a 95% chance according to the market, then of course over time, this will simply translate directly into more profits for all banks - so I guess what I'm saying, is that at the full year results, it will be hugely interesting to see what the bank predicts for it's NIM's going forwards and more importantly for us investors, how much of that additional profit will be made to shareholders - also with an extra 0.5% additional interest hopefully 'baked in' following Thursday, that may also give rise to a bigger end of year divi too (through and enhanced special divi) and be a driver to our SP too

Let's hope that the BOE next Thursday, 3rd Feb 2022 do the right thing and raise interest rates again to 0.5% which should be another reason for the SP to continue rising and especially as most analysts suggest that our bank is the most sensitive to interest rate changes and so a positive for our SP - if so, hopefully upwards and onwards to our full year results and a decent dividend and hopefully special divi too

It's just the market right now and driven by a number of factors - how many times will the US fed raise interest rates this year; will Russia invade Ukraine; have we peaked on growth and in fact is a recession now on the cards with run away inflation as it is? Finally, the US bank results last week weren't too clever and there's a concern on rising costs eating into profits, which of course will depress possible dividends; buy backs etc - simply hoping that this doesn't translate into our results in 2.5 weeks time. So a number of factors which unfortunately won't go away quickly. The Nasdaq has already gone into correction; the S&P and Dow are pretty close to correction, ie a 10% decline from their 52 week high - our SP is on the cusp of correction, so basically all markets and many share prices are moving in tandem, which often happens with a significant sell off. Afraid we need to simply 'buckle up' and ride this out - at SOME stage, there is always a recovery!

Sadanby001 - The government have been selling our shares at a considerable loss into the market and will undoubtedly continue to do so - from memory and at the time of the bailout, our shares were in excess of £5 and clearly if we 'ever' get to these heady heights, it will take a number of years from here. The treasury and Rishi have made it very clear that they're more interested in the money as opposed to getting value for tax payers and they've also set a timeline of 2025 at the latest in exiting NW in totality. Let's be honest, right now, 'any monies' coming into the treasury coffers against the mountain of debt we've stacked up during the pandemic can only be helpful - even if it is in 'dribs and drabs' Hope this helps

Happy 2022 to everyone.

So a brilliant start to the 2022 trading calendar. At the time of writing, our SP was pretty much at it's 52 week high at 2.34 and intraday, it created a new high at 2.3535.
According to technical analysts the KEY SP to watch out for is 2.46 - if the SP gets to this level, it's supposedly a significant 'buy' signal technically and should encourage a significant 'leg up'

Hello everyone and hope you all have a brilliant Christmas and very best wishes for 2022.
As it feels a bit 'doom and gloom' right now, thought I'd share some thinking about why there may be reasons to stay hopeful and positive when it comes to our NatWest SP into 2022:
1. Probably the biggest positive is that as we get into and beyond March 2022, the bank has the option to buy a further 5% of the government stock, as approved by us shareholders - it's not the 5% per se, but the impact it may have with the broader investor world - many of whom are prevented from owning our stock because of the government's holding in excess of 50% (currently standing at just under 54% I believe). Beyond March 2022 and acceptance of us buying back 5%, then this will take overall ownership back into private hands and us the shareholders and should bring many more investors to our table
2. Morgan Stanley have been given the sole right by the UK Treasury of off-loading up to 20% of the government's stock holding - believe this agreement is in place until September 2022 and so on top of point 1 above, we could get another 20% of stock changing hands and into private hands - whilst I get that this may initially dilute the SP, I believe that once the 50% ownership mark is breached, any dilution will be short lived and ultimately will add to the SP going forwards
3. More and more brokers are advising their clients that our shares are a strong buy and again can only add to acceleration of our SP into 2022 and as points 1 & 2 are realised
4. Over the years, I have a very simple metric of comparing our SP with that of Barclays - simply the difference and which now stands at 40p and towards a high in recent years - indeed a couple of years ago and once or twice since, this has reverted with Barclays SP leading the way, but as Brokers confidence has grown in our SP, so the differential has grown too and as I say, ending the year with a 40p differential I believe continues to bode well into 2022
5. Finally dividends, which I know are close to all our hearts - according to Broker consensus, Year End should come in with a 6.8p dividend, but I wonder if the bank will be a little more generous and in the order of 7.5-10p and through a special dividend
It would be great to get any other thoughts shared back and again, hope everyone has a brilliant few days over the Christmas and New Year Period

Totally agree and great to see!! That said, think Bailey understands that he '****ed up' big style back in November and this is a bit of catch up - good to see an 8-1 vote for the increase and sets us up nicely into 2022, provided Omicron doesn't scupper everything, believe they'll increase again in Feb's meeting and then onwards and upwards. Enjoy the increases in SP and actually may now mean that we exceed our year high of £2.35 by the end of December 2021 - would be nice

Saw something in passing today in the Daily Mail and just checked it out on the NatWest Group Shareholder site.
So last Friday, 5th November, the government sold 1% of its shares, some 183,481,626 ordinary shares, taking their ownership down to 52.9%
Assuming because it was such a low amount, it didn't get any real publicity?
I know there are many brighter people on this forum who have a much deeper understanding of these things, but can anyone shed any light as to why such a small sale happened and any intention off the back of it - I wondered whether it was simply Morgan Stanley dipping their toe into the water etc and before making a bigger off-load, but would really value any further insights - Thanks

Hello checkricky,
Like you, I've had my holding since 2008 and as previously shared, bought back in at the 1 in 10 split and again late last year, so like yourself and I'm guessing everyone else on this forum, we're looking for some good luck and news going forwards. Wonder if I can share some thoughts that might be positive going forwards:
1. Whilst this share buy back will be closing in the next couple of months or so, I have no doubt that more will be announced into 2022 and indeed 2023 and on top of the 5% stock we're allowing the company to buy back directly from the government - if you look at analyst consensus thinking, by 2023, the ordinary shares in circulation should be less than 10 BILLION - approx 11.37 Billion right now and running alongside the buy back - that means more 'free cash' coming our way in dividends
2. Once the buy backs both from the government and the market have come to an end in 2023, there'll be substantially more given away as cash dividends - just think right now and in the next year or two, the bank is spending approx £2 BILLION in buying back shares each year - from 2023 onwards, that cash could translate directly into cash dividends
3. The government currently owns just under 55% of our shares - once the next tranche is sold and takes us below 50% government ownership, this will open the company up to MANY more investors being able to buy our shares - right now MANY investment companies cannot invest in any company with more than 50% government ownership, so we are certainly on the cusp of bringing in more investors which will naturally drive up the price - personally and because of the above, I see many more reasons to be in NatWest stock that any other British Bank stock and hopefully the above will provide real momentum in the coming 2 to 3 years
Today's been crap for sure, but brighter days will certainly come our way - hold on in there

Hope this helps and best

Oh dear, there goes Bailey's credibility!!

Hi jotom750,
Many thanks for the welcome and hopefully over time, may contribute some additional comments that might help. In terms of background - I bought into NatWest, probably like a few on here back in 2008 and 'of course' just as things then slid away! Also bought more following the 1 in 10 split and lastly bought some about 12 months ago - like you, I guess my position is pretty sizeable too. The only other thing I was going to add with regards the rate discussion and of course we'll know for certain on Thursday, is that over the weekend, I was reading commentary that said that Andrew Bailey has pretty much tied his own hands with regards the comments he made 10 days ago and as such, he would rather raise rates and ensure that what he says is taken seriously, rather than pulling back at this late stage - which I guess makes sense to me - he supposedly doesn't want to be regarded as a Mark Carney, who raised various spectres and then never delivered on time etc - so wouldn't want to be regarded as a flip flop merchant. As we all know, Thursday will tell and whilst I understand that the increase will be almost insignificant in terms of the rise itself, as with all of these things, it's undoubtedly the message it sends and also the path of travel

Hello jotom750
First time of contributing and not sure if it helps - believe rates will got up on Thursday and if for no other reason that if they don't, then Andrew Bailey will be seen as weak and to the point of 'misleading' markets and indeed the public, based on his very strong comments about 10 days ago, stating everyone should prepare for rate rises and that with medium term inflation expectations rising, action was needed
. Additionally and based on the OBR projections last week saying that inflation will likely rise to over 5% next year will surely also play into their thinking and imminent action - markets are certainly predicting an increase and indeed a second increase could come as early as December too. Analysts consistently state that NatWest as a bank is the most sensitive to rates, so would only be good news