Member Info for MikeS02

Hi russ - having read the NatWest results site, it looks clear that it will be in the form of a dividend payment mid September and not B shares.
Ref the consolidation and what it 'actually' means - guess we'll have to wait until we receive the prospectus in August although I totally agree with your sentiment about simply paying a special divi which reverses in the sp etc and keeping it simple - assume it's something to do with keeping the government stake at 48%, but again, right now can't get my head around this part
Bristolcupid - also really appreciate the clarity

Help - Special Dividend - Like many on this forum, it's SUPERB to have a day like this and certainly 'the best' since I started acquiring my stake in NWG, back in 2008.
The help I'm seeking please, is to understand more about what will happen and what the special divi actually means - from what I've read in the results, it looks like the bank will retain the current split of shares at the end of August so that the government will remain at 48% ish and then they will issue a special divid for 17.5p per share in September?? Is this correct or am I'm mis-reading and as I say would be great to understand a little more of the mechanics of this one as the terminology is new to me and expect new to many others too - huge thanks

Hello Prime, I'm a NWG investor and just coming back on what you say ref the Barclays and NWG sp and unfortunately right now, you're absolutely correct, in that it's not good news for Barclays. So since I bought into NWG back in 2008, I've been tracking the 'gap' in sp between Barclays and NWG and in the 2010 - 2015 period, Barclays sp was ahead of NWG - since then the gap went NWG way at about 30p and this was maintained for a decent few years. Interestingly this year though, the gap has widened quite significantly - with it sitting at 79p in favour of NWG as of today and it hit 80p just about 3 months ago - now all of this is simply stats and I understand that, but it does suggest a pretty significant shift in analysts and investors momentum to the side of NWG over Barclays and just so that you know

Hi Gary,
Many thanks for adding to the debate. If you click onto the short positions tab at the top of the page, you'll see that one hedge company is shorting 0.5% of our shares. As Tiberian and myself and undoubtedly you and all other NWG shareholders hope and believe, this is simply a non starter and I strongly;y believe that when the share price starts rising quite significantly in the coming weeks, you'll quickly see this hedge fund close it's short position very quickly - also, if you take a closer look at what this hedge fund shorts etc, 0.5% is the LOWEST it does, so to me sounds more like dipping its toes in the water so to speak and rather than any meaningful position and/or its only able to mop up 0.5% of our stock in the marketplace which then shows how strongly other big investors rate our stock - guess we'll see eh, but still, have no doubts that our half year results will be strong and will be SEEN to be strong by analysts too

Not sure if you've read the article in today's Sunday Times from Ms Rose, but some interesting points which bode well for us:
1. She's very clear that as far as our customers and business owners go, that right now, the bank sees 'no' additional significant stress' in terms of defaults etc and that they don't see any noticeable rise in the numbers of people falling behind in their payments
2 She states that borrowers will be resilient and able to stand more interest rate increases due to the fact that many customers and businesses came out of the pandemic is a 'very resilient way'
3. Future revenue is pencilled in at £11 Billion, but this is based on interest rates of 1.25% which we're already at and undoubtedly with more to follow, there will be further upside to come
4. Her aim is about putting shareholder distributions ahead of any acquisitions and indeed states 'I don't fall into the hubris of needing to go and make big acquisitions'
5. She makes it clear that she sees herself as CEO through to the full privatisation of NWG from the government's remaining 48% stake which will give additional confidence to investors etc
She's clearly learned a lot about sharing information and giving interviews to the press in the 2 years as being CEO - at the start, she did a lot of mis-steps, but this interview is very assured and confident and again shows that NWG is a strong bank with capital to 'play with'
So hopefully, will be a decent momentum for our SP in the comings days and through to the half year results, where I'm hoping for a divi of 5p and a special divi of 5p - let's hope so eh

Alas_Smith - Really sorry you're signing off as you always added to the conversation - you probably won't read this, but just in case you check in later, may I wish you the VERY best for your future

Hello livestock & stagecoach,

Many thanks for your comments - just as an update, it looks like general consensus is that 'all' of the US banks will post 2nd quarter profits that are from -20% to -50% on last years numbers and basically because of accounting rules introduced in the US back in 2020 which will recognise the impending recession in the not too distant future, but also because the banks in the US were pretty aggressive in releasing their Covid contingency this time last year too. Guess it will simply be interesting when the numbers come out as to whether they are as bad as this? Clearly the market is setting up for such numbers though with JP Morgan for instance, already down 35% vs it's year's high

Hi. Alas_Smith,
Many thanks for the link and your comments below which are really well framed. I also had times in the past where I 'dabbled' with stocks, but to be honest and unlike you, I had more dogs then expected and so I largely came out of the markets. NWG is and remains my only stock interest and largely because I've tied up quite a bit of money in it and like many on this forum, I lost shedloads back in 2008 and slowly built additional positions in the stock over the last 10 years, but to recoup 'everything' I need the stock to get to the £3 mark - it's certainly possible in the coming 12-24 months, although clearly sentiment in particular needs to change.
Now for the not so good news from my perspective and vs the commentary in the link below - unfortunately, I believe the next 6 months will be as bad as the first when it comes to stocks - although bonds I believe will get a bid and start to reverse some of the loss over the last 6 months and of course recent years.
I don't believe stocks have bottomed and I'm sure you'll have read Meta's note to their staff last Thursday, which pretty much stated to 'hold on to your hats' as we're already entering a significant slowdown, which for them also means pulling investment; HR freeze etc etc. So in particular, I believe that the Nasdaq will continue to be hit hard and often when the Nasdaq leads lower, so does the rest of the US stock indices and then of course the rest of the world - I don't believe that stocks will bottom until the end of this year.
The interesting bit for me in the article link was and unless I missed it, they didn't mention a recession 'at all'?? That to me is hugely strange when you have the likes of Meta; Tesla openly stating we're entering a big re-adjustment in the economy and it's THIS fact that I believe will determine how low stocks go int the next 6 months.
Finally and probably no surprise, I absolutely agree with your sentiment for NWB vs Lloyds and Barclays and to state that many others believe the same too, simply look at the current share prices vs their highs they all attained in the last 6 months and we're certainly closest to our high by some margin. We have the best capital; the VAST majority of the loan book, some 90% is 'secured' and when you look at the current buy backs (which will remove c17% of our stock in circulation vs for instance Lloyds, which will only remove c5%) and indeed the levels of divis vs the other two, we certainly NOW are in a different league. If we can stay around the £2.20 - £2.30 mark, which we've largely done in the last few months, whilst the market continues to re-adjust, then think we'll be in a strong position later in the year, when the markets have 'washed out' and start moving upwards again - just my thinking and looking forward to other commentary too

honestbob and others - Whilst I certainly understand your frustration as I'm also a long term holder of this stock, I'm not quite sure what you and others posting recently with simple 'negative thoughts' on what we all know to be true, is trying to achieve?? If you simply want to let off steam etc, then guess so be it, but not really adding anything to debate etc. One thing I will add though - I will guarantee that at the half year and full year 2022/2023 that NWG WILL pay out bigger divis and/or buybacks per share than either Lloyds or Barclays and probably you could add theirs together and we'll STILL come out top. So as always, maybe consider some small silver linings as I try to do - it's one of the ways I think to remain invested as of course you could always head for the exit if you desire

Broomfielder - Your 'assertion' lacks credibility - WHY not bring in comparatives to ALL the other major banks in the UK and especially Lloyds and Barclays and you'll clearly see that the NWG is doing significantly better in comparison over recent years - oh and finally, compare recent Divis and buy backs which from a value perspective is WAY ahead of Lloyds and Barclays. So maybe a less 'pompous' commentary might be helpful

Hi Oldapache and Broomfield - Just to correct one of your assertions below - NWG share price got to £4 back at the start of 2015, so hardly static and pretty much doubled from it's current share price - also take a look at analysts recommendations and whilst all of us can take these so called 'experts' with a pinch of salt, clearly they 'rate us' and as such, will undoubtedly help move our SP over time more so than others

Hi Jim, Many thanks for the perspective and totally agree with you.
To be honest and it may be true of others too - we've signalled to Dinoken a number of times about his negativity and indeed encouraged him to disclose why his negativity with regards NWG in particular, but with no joy. As such and it may be worth accommodating too if you'd like - I will NO LONGER reply to Dinoken's posts accordingly and until he has the courtesy to share why he only posts negatives for NWG

I understand that people have very differing views on the 'power' of buy backs vs divi, but surely Lloyds' INABILITY to provide ANY power to their SP whilst wasting a £Billion, shows how useless buy backs are when the market is basically in correction territory! As such, it's DIVI'S all the way for me and Lloyds and other businesses need to wake up to this fact if they want to retain investors in their stock

Hi Tiberian, From what I believe and understand, whilst this has been announced and OVER TIME will be great news ref capital etc, my understanding is that anything and everything relating to Ireland still needs overall regulatory sign off and whilst this will happen, until it does, I don't believe they can release the relevant capital etc etc until then and believe this will be in Q2 2023, according to NWG

Superb post!!

Dinoken - Can we simply understand WHY you're so negative on here?? Think we all understand the risks and headwinds ahead, but ALL you seem to share is negative, which of course is your right, but just interested as to why 'always' the negative?

Hi Gary,
Sorry, but I won't be able to offer any further advice on other stocks etc - to be honest and probably like lots of people on this forum, I've tried a number of individual stocks over time and many didn't pan out, so I learnt my lesson and have only kept up with NWG over time, because it was my biggest investment back in 2008. Since and like many people again, I've topped up at low prices and am happy where I am right now, although to break even with my investment, I still need the SP to move up a tad more from where it is today - that said and as shared previously, even if the SP did rise to my breakeven point, right now I wouldn't sell because I believe that where the bank is in terms of capital; buy backs; divi disbursements and their conservative approach to things, means money coming investors way and as such, happy to take what I can get accordingly in the meantime.

Hi Gary,
Many thanks for your messages back and maybe I can try to clarify where the £800 comes from.
So with £10k to buy at say today's price of £2.20, this will give you 4,545 shares.
If the divi pay as expected on my note below, this will give a full year effect of 17.5p per share which equates to just under £800 and hence my figure.
Now clearly, these divi payouts need to materialise in order to get the payout, but as I say below, please take a look at analyst consensus for 2022 and I believe they stand at 16p for the full year in total, so pretty close to mine and right up to 32p per share which of course is cloud cuckoo land, but if only eh!! You can find it by going to the results centre on the investor part of NWG site and the consensus report is at the top

So good luck again and if there is ONE thing if you go with NWG on this site - if you take a look at commentary on both Lloyds and Barclays, my goodness are we a little more 'happier' and 'respectful' in general terms

Hi Gary,
I've been a long term holder of NWG and 'suffered' hugely after the government bail in back in 2008 - equally of course Lloyds holders of stock will also have suffered hugely due to exactly the same thing.
What I've tried to use as a bit of a benchmark about sentiment and confidence which goes an enormous way when it comes to banks is back in 2010 ish I tied NWG share price 'gap' to Barclays, which at the time had 'escaped' most of the crap out of the financial crisis. So through the 2010 - 2020 scenario, at the VERY best the gap in NWG to Barclays was 30p to NWG - I should add though that often during that time the SP of Barclays was actually HIGHER than ours. Interestingly though and in the last 2 years or so, we've been able to open up quite a gap with Barclays, which as I say above, is down to a much improved sentiment and especially from analysts about NWG - indeed just a couple of months ago, the gap was as much as 80p - today down to 56p, but still significantly above the long term trend mentioned above. So I guess this may be a longish way of saying that my confidence is strong and vs other UK banks, very strong and which I believe is shown in analysts ratings which you can see on a separate tab above. KEY bits for me would be: 1. Like you, I actually prefer divi over buy backs, but I know many have the alternative view - ideally a nice balance would be great eh - so if you take a look at the analysts views of forward divis for 2022 and beyond - which you can find on the results page of NWG at the top, you'll see a pretty bullish set of figures and for me, I quite strongly believe that for 2022, NWG will announce e divi of 7.5p for the half year and 10p for the full year - and based on your buy at today's price, would give you a divi of pretty much £800. Doing the same exercise with Lloyds - believe they'll pay 1p at the half year and 2p for the full year and again based on today's price and your £10k - would give approx £677. 2. The final bit for me if we're then taking about buybacks is that we now have approx 10.5 Billion shares in circulation - believe Lloyds have approx 72 Billion - now we've announced a 750 million buy back which started a little while ago, but at the AGM we also voted for the bank to buy back up to another 1.1 Billion shares and this is in ADDITION to any further government buy back, so within the next year or so, our shares in circulation will be near 9 Billion. Lloyds has announced a £2 Billion buy back for this year, but even assuming all this was made at a price c40p, they 'only buy back' some 5 Billion shares and so Lloyds will buy back approx 7% of their shares, whilst we will buy back closer to 14% and thereby suggesting that our share buy back will be more valuable to the remaining shareholders - It will therefore COST NWG less to pay us more, than when there were say 11 Billion shares in circulation. Know it's lengthy, but really hope it helps and good luck

Broomfielder, Many thanks for your thoughts, which as always, are interesting to read and food for thought. Not sure if you watched Powell yesterday during the press conference after their announcement, but he did raise ONE very interesting point and as follows: BOTH in the US and here, we have a demand shortage in the fact that businesses can't get enough people to work for them and meet their demand needs. In both countries we have MANY more vacancies than people looking to work/unemployed and so Powell made the point that even as the economy started to contract, which is likely with rising interest rates, then the fact of the above may well mean that even as people start to lose their jobs, then of course with the vast numbers of vacancies on offer, that unemployment will NOT rise and therefore bank balance sheets (not that he quoted that exactly of course, but just filling in the blanks so to speak) should be protected to that degree! Just found this a really interesting point, which made total sense to me, but as always the proofs in the 'eating' - hope it helps