Member Info for MikeS02

Hi SK,

Can I suggest you take a BREAK from posting such nonsense.

You're continually incorrect in your thinking and to be honest, it's getting a bit embarrassing for yourself!

I'm also not quite sure what you're actually trying to achieve by sharing such information? As investors in Tui, we absolutely KNOW the pros and cons - surely you know that?

GLA

Hi Mary,

Always like your posts and just as a reminder, the figure to enable a break out is above £6.30, which was the highest SP achieved since the RI last March. Would be great to see for sure and let's see...........

Of course, another great upgrade by an analyst or two, would fire rocket the SP too

GLA

Hi swazers,

Many thanks for posting, although I'll be honest - I don't understand these charts - I wish I did!

Do you have any 'words' you can share or indeed any other chart readers out there to help explain what this is telling us?

Genuinely interested and best

Hi zccax77,

It's a great Q and likely one of the reasons it's SP has struggled somewhat.

So interesting that the MS analyst, as part of his upgrade etc, was stating exactly that - that in his opinion by 2026, margins etc should be back to pre pandemic.

My 'guess' is that in the years since coming out of the pandemic, the company has driven sales at the expense of margins - just look at 2023 results - RECORD sales and improving, but still a way to go profitability etc etc.

What this does though, is it encourages brand loyalty for one and second, in a marketplace renowned for 'value', it enables Tui to claim that crown too.

That's why MS believes that their 'intent' this year of growing profits by 25% is, in their words 'conservative'

Hope this helps and of course only my thinking, but any business coming out of a scenario which nearly killed them off, has to start somewhere and that was generating sales. NOW, they need to show that they can grow profits considerably too and me and assume many here, believe that's on the way

GLA

Hi OTCDS and all,

Sorry, the other thing that struck me out of your broader MS commentary, was about the remaining KfW facility, which MS is quoting as only having 0.5 Billion left to clear - think I shared last week when Tui released the sustainability Bond, that the KfW might have 0.6 Billion left to clear - so all in the same ball park and remember that it is THIS facility which needs clearing and the final hurdle to being able to re-instate a divi! Starting to have confidence that a divi could be reinstated by the end of the year and wouldn't that be something

GLA

Hi OTCDS2023,

Many thanks for sharing the whole lot - I read it on Market Screener this morning and thought that was positive enough, but the fuller detail makes it excellent reading.

To be honest, the BIG thing for me today, as well as the analyst words of course, is the fact that it comes from one of the BIG boys over in the US.

So we now have Deutsche and MS fully within our camp and have no doubt, more will follow.

Also based on what MS says, we may even get Tui to upgrade it's earnings outlook at the Half Year, which would be another great step forward with the SP

Thanks again

Hi Robert,

By the way, think all of your lost monies are now sorted, which is great and good luck in your future investments!

Speculation; speculation - what you say may well be true, BUT do you really believe this would stop anyone seeking a decent holiday this year - I really don't think it will.

Also with our huge array of holidays and pricing power being the biggest Travel Operator in the World - don't believe again that any increases would dent us one iota.

If anyone suffers, it would be the low cost flight providers IMO

Hi balmus,

Many thanks for sharing, although your title is a bit misleading stating 2019 and whilst the article is stating record travel in 2024 and above the record set in 2019.

All good of course and interestingly, read in the Times over the weekend, that if you take one hotspot, ie Turkey - because of the huge devaluation in the Turkish Lire and the improving valuation of the pound across many currencies in the world; Brits will be 80% BETTER OFF than last year on their Turkish holidays 2024.

We simply need to see it flow into Tui's coffers, which I'm very confident it will

Email and all,

Rest assured that the 'big boys and girls' will have already cashed out if that's their intent.

That said ALL rm's and ii's trade across the world so as some say below, to them this is simply a non event!

Don't doubt there may well be some further turbulence, but if I'm honest, I think it's the 'big stuff' that really matters - eg War between Israel/Hamas; Budget on Wednesday (lesser extent); GE; US GE; What's happening with rates; Inflation etc etc.

What I am looking forward to though is:

1. Tui updating the market ref Easter bookings and this should happen the final week of this month - when they announced last year, our SP went up in a day by 12% - let's hope it's even bigger this time around

2. In April, Tui will get it's Premier Listing in Germany and which will then be a precursor to joining the MDAX in June - both of these offer new opportunities for investment in our shares

3. Ending of the Israel/Hamas war - of course mostly for the suffering to stop; but we got hammered when the war started and so once it's stopped and hopefully in the next 2-3 months it will have finished, then looking forward to a nice bounce too

GLA

Oh finally and as I've shared a number of times - PLEASE wait until Tui formally announce next steps when it comes to the delisting - only THEY know all the relevant next steps. Brokers, just like us, need to be patient and wait for the full details

Hi robertgleed

To be honest, I'm not sure what you're trying to achieve with your 'charges' commentary?

You DON'T KNOW

Also in your original post, you stated 'there will be transaction charges' and now you're saying 'charges will probably apply'?

As I say, you simply DON'T KNOW, so why not simply wait until Tui communicates to all of us, as what you are doing is possibly adding angst to those investors who are maybe new at this and/or are patiently waiting for an official update from Tui?

Finally and to re-state - there is nothing in the legal comms from Tui about the delisting that suggests anything other than Tui covering all costs.

As selecta6 states - the only likely cost, will be a minor currency conversion cost when you then transact the shares after delisting has occurred and they are in euros.

GLA

Think you're assuming incorrectly, as nothing of this sort mentioned in the legal documents released to date and I certainly would have thought that they would have been!

As I've shared previously, believe that Tui will assume ALL costs - of course will have to wait until Tui formally communicates to all of us shareholders to clarify and as such, let's not assume

Correct

Hi Badgernator,

Many thanks for your thoughts and TOTALLY agree with your thinking ref valuation - ref delisting, just want to get it done and move on eh!

With regards the KfW facility and from what I can see, there's a yearly interest of 9.5% through to redeeming the facility. they have until 2026 to redeem, although the BOD's has declared their intention to redeem it sooner and let's hope that the bond issued yesterday helps us down that road

Hi Duka,

Hope you're very well.

Evanescent is correct in saying that if ANY broker simply cancelled your shares, they would indeed be breaking the law and as such, they simply couldn't do it.

If I'm honest, as I've seen a number of queries on here, I'd simply wait until the official comms comes for Tui, which I'm guessing may come in April, although it may come out with the Half Year results on 15th May, as this is still approx 5 weeks from delisting on the 21st-24th June 2024, which is more than enough time to get things sorted.

Brokers have no more clue than any of us right now and as such, any comms from them should be taken with a big dose of salt!

As I say, best to wait for the official comms and then you'll be good to go - hope this helps

Hi all,

So was wondering what the RNS today titled Pre-Stabilisation was all about and my sense is that they've incorrectly titled it, as it should be sustainability - I think!

Anyway, for full details what this entails please see link below, which is from the Investor news Tui site itself.

The reason for sharing is that it feels a good thing to do, but also gives them further monies to help pay off the remaining KfW facility, which was part of the deal done during the pandemic and which basically saved the company from going bust!

The reason it's a good thing to do and I'm hoping they do one or two more of these bonds at a similar value, as from my understanding, until they remove the KfW facility, which stands at 1.1 Billion euros as of now (they paid off 1 Billion last year as part fo the RI), they are unable to pay dividends, which of course would be great and a big driver in our SP.

Assuming from what they say in the link, is that we're probably looking at a reduction in the KfW of approx 450 million euros, and therefore finding the other 650 million, would get this 'off our backs' once and for all.

Let's hope another Bond is announced in the coming weeks which clears the decks and gives us great news 'for once' eh

GLA and hope this helps

https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/investors/news/2024/ir-news/20240228

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well.

As some of you may remember, I check in to this board from time to time, as the chat is generally great and helpful - although seems a little strained at times currently?

The reason for coming through is that I'm surprised that there has been no discussion about the possibility of the government guaranteeing a 99% LTV mortgage with only a 1% deposit needed and which may well be announced at the budget on the 6th March 2024.

Now I realise that this isn't a Help to Buy scheme and it doesn't sound like such a scheme is being 'touted' for the budget, but as a 95/5% scheme is still available today for new buyers, do you believe that the above will 'fire' things up for the HB's or not - genuinely interested in your thinking and huge thanks

Hi deatr28,

For what it's worth, I'd simply wait - why, because when the UK shares are delisted on the 21st June and then all shares are converted into euro denominated shares on the 24th June 2024, you won't gain anything by doing stuff early - ie whatever the German shares SP is at the end of the 21st, we'll ALL get that price on the opening of the 24th, as I understand it.

Additionally, moving early may well involve costs and assuming that's why ii is actually offering this service, whereas I'm pretty certain that when the transfer actually happens according to Tui's timeline and confirmation of next steps, that Tui will take all relevant costs directly - only my assumption with this last point, but as costs have never been in any of the formal declarations about the delisting, you have to think that Tui will cover costs according.

Clearly only my thinking and hope it helps

SK, Not sure why you've become a broken record, but you really have and it's a shame.

My guess is you haven't got any stock positions right now and if so, that's of course absolutely fine - I was in a similar position about 18 months ago and I too, expected and 'spouted off' about the risks and downsides and only to see a pretty significant move upwards in stocks across the world.

Even if everything you share comes true, it means NOTHING with regards the stock market - let's be honest, the stock market and fundamentals have been dislocated for a long time now and as such, ONLY what MM's and ii's decide to do, affects the stock markets around the world - end of! If THEY want to cash in, we lose; if they buy, we win.

Finally, you may want to read up a little before posting some of your thoughts - so only yesterday, Bailey stated that he thought that the very minimal recession over the last two quarters had already finished and whilst I think that Bailey is a bit of a 'dick', I do really believe he will have his finger on stuff like this and rather than yourself.

So GDP sorted; Tax giveaways - again, maybe read up a little - there's LOADS of evidence that reducing taxes can actually boost the tax take - why, because both businesses and us , as consumers, will then spend more and hence boost tax coffers - so again, if any tax giveaways, tax take sorted.

Only my thinking of course, but posting constantly negative stuff about the economy etc etc, really doesn't add too much value in my opinion and when markets are moved by lots of other stuff

Hi balmus,

Many thanks again for sharing

SW, Huge thanks.

Ref our deal with Ryanair today - seems great to me, although not being reflected in any positive SP movement - I must live in an alternative universe!!

So if I've got this right, the fact that Tui will be offering all the flights offered by Ryanair, opens up huge numbers of new markets, which Tui currently don't operate in and as such, enabling customers to then link in hotels; excursions etc etc provided by Tui - this is simply 'free money' to us surely? Also, assuming we get a fee for every Ryanair seat sold on the Tui site - again, free money to us and I wonder if that's why the BOD states a MINIMUM 25% increase in Underlying EBIT?

Or am I living in that alternative universe?