Member Info for MikeS02

Hi mas,

Hope you're very well.

Very difficult to give you a comparative, as on HL and as SK has shared, our shares were suspended on Tuesday evening, so can't access and/or run through a dummy sale - sorry.

Hey, that said - seems the sort of cost I was assuming anyway, so as such, believing we'll still be quids in following the delisting and many good things coming our way ref trading updates etc etc

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

So just coming through as I found today a really interesting and 'strange day'.

Strange, because for the first time I can remember since investing in Tui from April 2023, arbitrage didn't seem to work today?

So with arbitrage, as I know most of you will know, but just incase you don't - when a stock is dual listed, changes in the SP on either side tend to influence each other and therefore a green day in one is usually followed by the same on the other side and exactly the same with a red day.

Today was different - over in Germany our SP was pretty much in the Green all day. Our SP in the UK was pretty much in the red all day and only started to move into the green come mid afternoon.

Secondly and assuming it's something to do with the relative breakdown in arbitrage, the % link between the two SP's has broken and again, for the first time I can remember.

So if you'd like to check backwards, you can always go to the German SP; apply an 85% conversion and it will take you back to the UK SP on that day - very consistent.

So with us finishing in Germany at 7.19; our UK SP should have been £6.11, as opposed to the closing price of £6.03.

I only have one rationale and it's to do with the fact that HL 'froze' our UK shares last night, as indeed IG did too and with regards the delisting.

So I can only think that today, HL have been clearing through sell orders; automatic sell orders etc etc and this is the rationale for the disconnect - if anyone else has some thoughts I really would be interested to know, as I'm sure others would too.

So if it is to do with the above, then feels like the vast majority of the UK HL/IG sell orders have been processed and tomorrow should be a more normal day in terms of arbitrage etc etc - indeed if the above is true, we could well see an initial UK SP lift to the £6.11 level unless of course there's bad news across in the US ref interest rate pathways which are released by the Fed our time 7.30pm from memory and it affects the overall market.

Finally, with HL being the biggest asset manager in the UK and likely the biggest number of our shares frozen until the end of the month, then it could of course be that arbitrage is now broken and as such, I'm now simply focussing on the German SP and applying an 85% discount to see where my price would be here in the UK

GLA

Hi mas and all,

Apologies for this final message as I know that I've posted 'far too many' in the last couple of days and as such, will take a break for a bit.

Have re-read my initial message back to you and for absolute clarity, I'm talking about mm's and ii's involved in tracker funds and etf's associated with the MDAX. Best Mike

Hi losealot,

Great name by the way and hopefully once delisting has occurred etc, you and all off us, won't be!

Many thanks for sharing and HL are exactly the same, ie our shares will be frozen at the end of Tuesday, 11th June 2024.

Mind you, yours is 'super quick' - ours will take the rest of the month, although believe it will ultimately be quicker

GLA

Hi mas,

Hope you're very well and thanks for the Q - interestingly, had exactly the same Q myself a little while ago, so have had the chance to think it through.

So I get that private investors may well buy ahead of going live in the MDAX come the 24th June 2024, but of course many may not - as we all know, momentum in SP's often drive it one way or another and others may simply wait to see what happens etc - as for mm's and ii's - it's a totally different scenario - if they cover MDAX stocks they will have a legal obligation to buy and include Tui in their mix as and when it's listed come the 24th June 2024. Their legal obligation therefore won't start til the 24th June 2024.

One final point to add - As we know, stocks are swings and roundabouts - just look at the close of the 31st May at £5.38. Who is to say that the stock won't get back to £5 by the end of the 21st June (clearly I don't see that scenario, but who knows eh) and before delisting weekend, which of course would be a bargain price for mm's and ii's from the 24th June 2024.

Do you see what I mean?

As it's swings and roundabouts, I really don't believe mm's and ii's will touch our stock until they legally have to and for that, it will be opening on the 24th June 2024.

I hope that answers your Q and best

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well.

So another week closer to delisting which is great and closer to getting investment from those mm's; ii's and private investors in the MDAX and as of the 24th June 2024.

So a couple of points:

1. So looking at the RNS tonight, it was Blackrock who reduced their holding quite considerably last week and hence resulted in our SP pressure towards the end of May - sure they're delighted that they missed out on this week's increase eh!!

2. Whilst a 'tad' disappointed that we failed to hold on to the £6.20 as of Wednesday, I can't complain in the current environment of a 10% increase for the week - and hopefully many more of these into the near term future to come our way

That's it - have a terrific weekend and GLA

Hi Dathrilla and all,

Just a quick correction to the TERP figure quoted as below - so the 9.13 euros is totally correct, but this actually equates to around £7.76 in pounds - sorry for the error and confusion

Hi Taverham,

Hope you're very well.

Just for clarity, the announcement on the 5th June simply stated that we had been accepted to join the MDAX.

We don't actually get into the MDAX until Monday, 24th June and following completion of the delisting. So afraid we'll all have to wait a couple of weeks until MDAX trackers; mm's and ii's get their teeth into our stock - like you and all of us though, can't wait

Hope this helps and GLA

Hi Dathrilla,

Hope you're very well.

Can only think that there's some consolidation happening, with maybe one of the bigger players doing some stuff off line - certainly wouldn't surprise me at all if it's Goldman Sachs and we get an RNS in the coming days - as shared a few times, it's the one big mm/dealer I really don't trust

Simply hope that the SP sticks around the £6 or 7.10 euros mark going into the delisting weekend and so that we have a strong week of delisting itself and when MDAX dealers will be taking up our shares - clearly anything higher for me will be a bonus in the next couple of weeks and move us towards our Terp price of 9.13 euros or about £8.32 as shared to Stille this morning.

Finally you will undoubtedly have noticed that the vast majority of the travel stocks have been under pressure again in the last 2 days and this could be down to the debacle of Israel yet again, who yesterday morning stated to Hezbollah that if they want a war, they could pretty much have one and based on recent attacks in Northern Israel - then no surprises if some investors took fright yet again at a possible escalation

GLA

Hi Stille,

Great to hear from you and hope you're very well.

Terp in euros is 9.13 and please see link as below - hope it helps and best

https://www.tuigroup.com/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/Capital-Increase-March-2023/20230328_TUI-Capital-Increase_TERP-Calculation.pdf-fa0e474dbc422304afbe1f2a0324b84e.pdf

Hi all,

Sorry for the wait, but the Bourse only closes at 10pm their time and as such, they've just released the statement that we're in!!

Please see link below and should power us ahead tomorrow,

https://www.deutsche-boerse.com/dbg-en/media/press-releases/Changes-in-MDAX-and-SDAX-3987688

Hi all,

Ref our broker upgrade today - Oddo bhf - thought you might like to understand who they are and indeed as moving over to Germany, guess over time, we need to get used to brokers we don't really know here in the uk - hope it helps and GLA

https://www.oddo-bhf.com/en/pd/1350/quisommesnous/1378/identity

Hi colinpd,

Really sorry to hear about your predicament and seems like some other brokers have been pretty disgraceful too!

Have one idea for you, which might help, but of course only if you really believe in Tui and want to hold for some time.

So as shared with Duka last week, you could sell 'now' and then buy back in again through Hargreaves Lansdown, which I and many others on this board use too - why HL - because we know that you can still buy in the UK for Tui til the end of next Wednesday, 12th June, after which our shares are 'locked' until they transfer them to Germany. Of course after you sell, you could equally simply buy the German Tui shares again through HL, although you'd have some higher fees to do so initially.

Just a thought and I know it will mean selling at a loss etc etc, but it's certainly a route for you til the 12th June and if you want to remain as an active investor in Tui.

Finally and of course, this is certainly not a recommendation in any way, simply offering some advice and hope it helps

Hi all,

Hope you're very well and enjoying the blue/green screens for once eh!

As shared a while ago, today marks the announcement of the changes to the DAX; MDAX and SDAX. All of these will be announced at the end of today and after the market closes.

Tui is pretty much a 'shoe-in' for inclusion in the MDAX and it could of course be that MM's; ii's and general investors like us are loading up ahead of the announcement.

That said, it could of course generate more interest tomorrow and when things are confirmed.

We've all been through quite a lot in the last 15 months or so, so enjoy and GLA

Hi PabloHorse,

As a Tui investor, totally agree with your thoughts and sentiment.

Indeed as you probably know, this year, they are projecting a 25% increase in profits and at the HY24 results a couple of weeks ago, they were already 23% ahead year on year, so likely they will upgrade their projections at the Q3 results in August - pending any disasters etc etc

So for both Tui and indeed EZJ, the demise of the third biggest holiday company in Germany will undoubtedly help our results for 2024 and beyond

The great news for the holiday makers is that those on holiday right now are protected and those who have booked but are waiting for their holidays, they should get compensation and then spend accordingly

GLA

Hii Stille,

Hope you're very well and of course

Take care and best

Hi balmus and donalb,

balmus, huge thanks for sharing as always.

donalb - Totally agree with your comments - guess we'll undoubtedly be a winner out of this one and especially as they're based in Germany - it looks like at least those on holiday will be looked after - for those booked but waiting, then as I say, assume they'll get relevant compensation and as such, we'll then be a key beneficiary.

Big players in markets 'always love' when a key competitor hits the floor and today, is one of those days

Hi all,

Many thanks for sharing your thoughts and to me, this week has felt particularly bad!

However, just looked at the figures for the last 5 days - can you believe that we are actually positive for the week - only 5p, but still positive - to me, have felt that I've been rung out to dry for some reason and maybe because we had a decent start to the week and only to fall away - but again, rationale for the last 2 days in particular has been the removal from the FTSE 250 as of next Monday, so guess I get the selling.

Additionally, we've consistently bounced off our 200 DMA, at around the £5.34 level and I know that that's usually a decent sign and against the backdrop just mentioned, it gives me a chink of light at the end of this week.

Finally and again just as a ref, EZJ was 6p up; IAG was level for the week and Jet2 was down 16p; with WIZZ up the most.

Heading for the beer and have a great weekend, with hopefully brighter days ahead - I'll be watching out for our announcement next Wednesday, 5th June that we've been accepted into the MDAX come the 24th June and like others have said, thank goodness we're into June (pretty much) and can't wait to see the other side of the delisting!

GLA

Hi WackWack,

I've never been through a delisting as I'm sure most of us haven't.

As such, I'm holding on in and based on the fact that I truly believe that the delisting and all of the relevant investors in the FTSE 250 who have to sell up and including those that don't want to hold our shares following delisting are all adding to the downside for now. As it was stated that we will be replaced in the FTSE 250 from next Monday only today, guess no surprise that this has added to the downside pressure!

And whilst you share that Tui stands out, I know that you've posted previously where Tui stands out for the positive side of things with many of your investments in the red - as we know, swings and roundabouts!

We really won't know until the other side of the 24th June 2024, when we'll get a clear view on reality

GLA

Hi Clank,

Many thanks for your thoughts back - guess unless I'm optimistic, I'd be sold up, like others who have lost faith and as I've shared, I do indeed understand theirs and ours frustration and I totally understand selling up accordingly.

For me though, I truly can see the chinks of light and hence why I'm remaining a shareholder certainly for the rest of the year.

With regards the Israeli war, I chose my words carefully and hence the 'main war' ending by the end of June. I say main war, because Israel will undoubtedly remain in Gaza until they are confident that their security issues are fully resolved, but that doesn't stop Netanyahu from declaring 'success', which as I say I believe will be in the coming few weeks and to which I believe MM's and ii's will respond to very positively at that time.

Cheers and best