Member Info for MikeS02

Hi all,

Just keeping you updated if you didn't know and guess no surprises what with everything going on right now and negative press etc etc that companies have opened up further short positions

GLA

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI%20AG&land=germany

Hi Stiperstones and all,

Not a problem posting this at all - I've also been pretty appalled at how Tui has treat their customers over the weekend and indeed into the early part of this week. How on earth can their people planning system for pilots and staff be so affected on Friday that they've needed to ground in effect approx 65 flights and everyones holidays - simply appalling that they haven't got relevant back up systems and assuming this will be a serious lesson to learn from into the future. I guess you could argue that they made the difficult decision to cancel holidays etc in order to minimise the effect on many others holidays and I get that too - but in reality, shouldn't have been an issue in the first place and I truly feel sorry for anyone who has had their hard earned holidays cancelled!

To be honest, quite right that we were hit today for such failure - as for Ryanair, well for me, that's their problem and not ours, but of course the market ties us all in together.

When we deliver our 'stellar' results on the 14th August, we'll show who get's it right ref pricing etc and have no doubts at all, that it will be ourselves

GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

So just coming through with some thoughts and after others sharing ref SP volatility; losing faith etc etc:

Like everyone else, I've certainly had those thoughts too, but with my rose tinted glasses, I'd simply like to share:

1. As others have mentioned too, our results on the 14th August will be 'stellar'. I certainly believe that they will be top of the pack in terms of other tourism/airline businesses and as such, believe it will be recognised in the SP accordingly.

You'll see all other airlines/tourism companies reporting strong results in the coming weeks, but the big difference will be Tui will 'exceed' what's expected by the market, whilst all others will simply deliver what the market expects and which will put us in a different league

2. They continue to do some good stuff with regards interest payments etc and yesterday's announcement about the fulfilment of a new bond through to 2031 is a great sign of that - please see link below if you'd like full details - so not only are they using the proceeds to pay off future bond 'debt' maturing in 2028, but they are also continuing to pay down the KfW facility which was set up through the German government back in 2020 and until they do pay it back fully, they can't pay any dividends. Within the link you'll see the clarity that they intend to pay back the remaining 210 million euros in the first half of FY25 and once they do that, they'll be in a position to introduce a dividend programme - again, as shared yesterday, believe that this will all be tied to the shareholder meeting in February 2025 and with a first payment made in December 2025 when they announce the FY25 results

3. Based on both of the above, you have to think that the rating agencies will again upgrade us towards the end of this year and just like they did last year too - taking us further towards investment grade territory, which of course big players look at and invest in etc etc. Additionally and just for ref, I include a link to MarketScreener which shows current analyst ratings, with 5 Buy and 3 Hold - best we've had in a long time and the average SP forecast is now above 10 euros too, which again we've not seen in a long time

So the above is with my rose tinted glasses on - I've no doubt in my mind that we will get recognised as we should do in the coming few weeks and months - again as shared, I have a year end SP target and if they deliver that, I'm 'in' for another 12 months - if they don't, then I'm out!

GLA

https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/media/press-releases/2024/2024-07-19-tui-ag-successful-placement-of-a-487-million-euros-convertible-bonds

https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TUI-AG-470539/consensus/

3. You'll

Hi Clank,

Hope you're very well, but not sure what you mean about dilution ref the bond issue announced today?

If anything, it's brilliant news - so they're reducing the KfW facility to c210m euros (was 2.8 Billion just a couple of years ago) and they state that this final amount will be redeemed in the first half of FY25 - that absolutely removes the last road block to paying a dividend - so my current thinking is that they will look to redeem for the Shareholder meeting next February 2025 and then also announce their dividend policy for payment in December 2025.

Whilst I know that there are some terms agreed with the bond - as of course all bond placements do - they state that they intend to redeem by/ahead of redemption date in 2031.

Also they pulled off a brilliant % interest term - at only 1.95% - the KfW facility carried an interest rate of between 4.5 - 9.5% per annum, so the 1.95% rate is a brilliant achievement based on current interest rates around the world.

So for me and I do realise I may well be reading through those rose tinted glasses of mine, but can only see good!

GLA

Hi Mary,

Hope you're very well and yes, me too.

My belief for the 14th is that they will state that they will 'exceed' the FY24 high expectations already set for profitability and if so, the SP will certainly take off.

So 2 main reasons for this belief:

1. Up to the Half Year, they were already 23% up on last year's profit figure vs their forecast of a 25% jump. So with their biggest two quarters to come, they will undoubtedly get to a significantly higher number - I guess that bringing in strong %'s above major money in the second half is a big ask, but I simply believe they will do it - just look at yesterday's end of year results for Jet2 and one of their key messages was that customers were booking late - if you look back on our end of year results, the business has simply set itself to do just that - maximise last minute holidays - so totally playing into our hands so to speak

2. The other major point though is what they've done with the demise of FTI in Germany a couple of months ago and please simply see the link below - tells you everything you need to know.

So roll on the 14th and oh, I'll go for that double digit figure for year end of 10 euros!

GLA

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/german-tour-giant-tui-profits-fti-bankrupcy-2024-06-20/

Hi all,

Just sharing below as helps to explain why both EZJ and IAG in particular did well today as they're the ones who will likely get additional slots and hope it helps:

In London, travel stocks were among the best large-cap performers, as investors digested a sector development. easyJet added 4.2%, while British Airways parent IAG rose 5.5%.

The European Commission announced on Wednesday it had approved Lufthansa plans to acquire part of state-owned Italian airline ITA Airways.

To appease EU regulators, Lufthansa and the Italian government agreed to facilitate the operation of short-haul flights by rival airlines to Central Europe and share landing slots at Milan airport to reduce Lufthansa's potential domination.

Hi Dathrilla,

Really not sure what you're looking at today, but we also finished up at +9c - totally agree, not as much as EZJ; JET2 and IAG today, but still up and ahead of WIZZ. As you clearly know, not everyone rises at the same tempo and today we were indeed behind, but we've also had days when we've led.

Clearly if you're unhappy, then you can sell out of course, as can mas and now that we're on the other side of the delisting - you have to decide if you believe in the Company or not - I do and I have my targets for the end of the year - if they don't deliver I'll be moving on too - something I've shared a few times in the past

GLA

Hi Stiperstones,

Huge thanks for sharing and let's hope that once liquidity comes back via HL and hopefully pretty quickly, that relevant investors 'pile in' accordingly eh - also, good luck with your investment too!

Hi all,

Many thanks for coming back and sharing accordingly.

So interestingly, my account and my wife's have been updated literally after the market closed, so around the 4.35pm mark and so we can now trade the share online - not that we'll be doing that of course until it hits the SP we're looking for and as shared before.

Interestingly, they still quote our value in £'s - thought it would be in euros - but they still use the same 85% conversion rate of euros to pounds as I've used in the past, so happy with that.

So if you go to prices, they quote euros which of course is correct, and trading is in euros too - so at long last looks as though things have moved in the right direction and hopefully will be sorted for everyone else with HL today.

Best Mike

Hi email,

No problem at all and please see below and hope it helps - clearly 'amend' as you'd like and I simply headed up the secure message that you can send via your account as 'Complaint'

Hello,

I'm hugely disappointed that my Tui shares this morning, the 2nd July 2024, are still showing in £'s as opposed to the euros they should be by now and that I can't trade them accordingly.

So following the delisting and the corporate communications/instructions from yourselves, everything should have been sorted by today and it clearly isn't.

So my Q's are:

1. Why hasn't the delisting been sorted as per your instructions from May and as such, my shares should be quoted in euros and able to trade, which again they aren't

2. Why has there been no further comms and especially the day after things should have been completed - very poor indeed

I await your answers accordingly,

regards,

Mike Scott

Hi mas,

Hope you're very well.

If you 'really' believe this is simply down to delisting, can I suggest you read the IAG; EZJ ; WIZZ boards to name a few and they're all in the same boat. Nothing at all to do with delisting I would suggest and I really do believe you're currently missing the bigger picture, which is travel and tourism stocks are totally out of favour right now - ending Gaza; delivering brilliant results (which I truly believe that we will come 14th August and exceed expectations) and the stock 'settling' after all of the brokers have done their job properly following the delisting and then we can truly assess where things stand.

Clearly only my thinking and rest assured, like you and others, I really do want and indeed expect to see us start moving appropriately, but until sentiment really does shift, we'll undoubtedly be held in a range.

GLA

Hi all,

Just a quick note - this morning, I've just put in a complaint to HL, as they've failed to deliver their delisting comms/instructions for us Tui holders, which is pretty appalling. So within my account, they're still sitting in £'s and are unable to trade.

Additionally, they haven't even had the courtesy to send out an updated comms, which again is appalling.

Can I simply ask that if you hold your Tui shares through HL, that you also raise a complaint accordingly.

Many thanks

Hi donalb,

Huge thanks fro the clarity - really appreciated.

And yes, sorry, meant the PM and not the President in my note from yesterday evening - always get these two mixed up when it comes to French politics.

Hi donalb,

Huge thanks for the clarity.

Looking at the exit polls, looks like the hard right have about 33-34% of the vote this time around, which from what I've been observing is slightly less than what the polls had predicted, but of course the genuine results could be at that level of approx 35-36%. The hard left are at 28.5% at the exit polls.

I guess from what you're saying below and with the above at their best results 'ever', that the casual right and left may simply pile in to the hard scenarios even more as they pretty well know that this time around they really do stand a chance of gaining real power and especially true of the hard right?

Ref Macron, he's clearly an 'idiot' as I understand that he didn't need to go to the polls until 2027!!!

Think the markets will react negatively tomorrow and possibly into Tuesday and simply because the polls have pretty much been delivered and the hard right are on the cusp of owning the French Presidency and overseeing and setting domestic policy - that said, they've had quite a sell off already in the past few days, with spillover into the German and other markets too and so who knows?!

Would really appreciate any other thoughts you have as I'm sure others would too, although of course I realise that in reality we need to wait until next Sunday for full results

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

We need to be prepared for a particularly tricky Monday/Tuesday if the French elections go as predicted - clearly if the far right win an outright majority, then may be a bit trickier - not getting a majority and having to share power with Macron etc, will likely be taken a bit better and may even help drive some positive sentiment. If the far left win a majority, then we need to batten down the hatches, although this isn't seen likely at all.

Clearly our luck with Tui that we join the German market, with such issues in France that simply spill over to the rest of the European market.

GLA and looking to a brighter time when. we get through all of this uncertainty - war ends in Gaza and we raise expectations for 2024 by exceeding etc and this latter bit is only 6 weeks away

Hi Greylady,

Many thanks for sharing and hope you're very well.

Guess what I'm talking about are the mm's and ii's who have a 'legal duty' to buy our share when they offer tracker funds and etf's that are based purely on the MDAX or which include the MDAX as part of their offering - totally get what you're saying ref volatility, but as I say, they pretty much have no choice to buy us if they offer these types of investment choice.

Cheers, Mike

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

So seems a little strange start to the week so far, with us becoming part of the MDAX, although interestingly, we've not had any 'formal' comms from Tui on the matter and although they announced it a little while ago at the start of June, you would think they would be flying the flag upon entry - look what they did when we entered the Prime Standard back in early May - flew the flag - so strange!

Secondly, clearly mm's and ii's who 'legally' track the MDAX for their funds etc are certainly not investing in us right now - if they were, there clearly would be a significant upside to our SP - can only think that they may need to wait before buying further shares until all shares 'settle' after the delisting - so for example, as an HL investor, we may have to wait until this weekend for our shares to return to our accounts - so maybe until all of these have been 'returned' and by other brokers too, then mm's and ii's are precluded from further investing and also this may also be the reason why Tui isn't 'flying the flag' as yet, ie they're also waiting for all shares to be back in investors accounts etc and just a thought.

Clearly the above investment will certainly come our way, but wonder if this will now be into next week and rather than this, and again, just a thought? So again, strange!

That's all the thinking I have and looking forward to a time - in the near term, when we see these flows into our SP accordingly

Best Mike

Hi donalb,

Many thanks for the update - just for a little bit of clarity - delisting occurs this weekend and we will have fully delisted from the UK side as of 8am next Monday, 24th June and rather than the end of the month as quoted.

Totally agree with your comment ref UBS and even more strange as they seem to be continuing to build a stake in ourselves and so why they bother quoting £'s - who knows eh!!??

May still see some additional selling in the UK market Thursday and especially Friday of this week for those investors who have totally been let down by their brokers and who are being forced to sell - that said, have to think that the vast majority are now done and dusted.

So hoping that we get to around the 7.30 euro mark by end of Friday and simply to set us up strongly for go live date next Monday and when all of those tracker/etf funds will be lining up to buy us accordingly and also hoping that into the end of next week we're finally at TERP!

Have a few days in the Yorkshire Dales from tomorrow and back on Friday, so hoping to see decent stuff by then and GLA

Hi all,

Another crazy rollercoaster of a day, albeit somewhat confused by the 'red day' across the board and with travel hit pretty hard and including ourselves of course.

I know others have commented before but all this week, the US market has started off weak and significantly impacted the European markets, whilst finishing pretty strongly - the next day though, we never seem to catch up etc.

So clearly ongoing manipulation occurring which I know we know.

I've certainly decided to simply track the German SP, as that's where we're ending up anyway and it's the one that makes the most sense to me right now - here in the UK during today, some of our spreads were 5 basis points, which I've never seen and is undoubtedly down to the significantly reduced liquidity here in the UK as more and more brokers freeze our shares here, which will be ongoing and will probably get even less towards the 21st June 2024.

Can't wait for the 24th!!

GLA

Hi WackWack,

Many thanks for your thoughts and again today looks a bit 'wild' - as of now, Germany is at 7.09, or £6.03, whilst in the UK we're at only £5.92 - so again, assuming some 'stuff' going on behind the scenes, which is well beyond my investing capability and understanding. Again, this may well settle out this pm, but who knows.

Guess the great news is that we're ultimately in euros anyway, so will stick with the German SP and conversion calculation until things settle out - if indeed they ever will ahead of delisting.

Hi SK,

Many thanks for your kind message to us all and very best of luck back - in reality we're all in the same boat really - striving to make some money and sideline those pesky failures

GLA