Member Info for MikeS02

Looks like only a part link has come through, so will try again and hope this one works and helps

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI AG&land=germany

Hi Warrenbuff123,

Hope you're very well.

Many thanks for your Q, although being honest my initial answer would be 'haven't got a clue'.

If I'm honest, I'm not that bothered about shorters - why - because they often pretty much short any and all companies at some time. Additionally and right now, ALL airlines/tourism companies are being shorted.

So my best guesstimate as to why, is simply their belief about the Middle East - some may have an issue with Tui and our balance sheet, but believe the vast majority are currently shorting based on the Middle East and the macro tensions. Until that is resolved, I do think that all companies will continue to be hit by shorters accordingly. Clearly believe that if any are around our balance sheet, that they will disappear very quickly after our full year results in December.

Finally and I know that you've quoted the short position from shortsell.eu before and I think I shared that when I checked the site out, they included ALL short positions and many that had closed, so the figure of 11.17% was incorrect.

I track from time to time the below link, which is much more up to date and is showing a short % of 3.88% - it was 4.5% about a month ago and hope this helps,

Best, Mike and GLA

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI AG&land=germany

Hi email,

Totally agree. Indeed one thing to know and it's in the dividend section of the Tui site - so Tui gets sign off of their dividend policy in the AGM of the year that it's possibly paid and so for a dividend to be paid at the end of FY25 results in December 2025, they will have to get sign off next February at the AGM. Another interesting fact which is very different to here in the UK - so in order to qualify for a possible dividend payment next December, ALL dividend qualifying shares MUST be bought by the AGM latest - ie ex dividend date is the day immediately after the AGM. If this is announced next month, can you imagine the frenzy in wanting to get hands on our shares!! 10 euros - I'm believing 12 euros by AGM date!

So you have to think, as I strongly do - that they either announce the dividend policy alongside this year's results OR they state that they will be reinstating a dividend policy and will present for sign off at the AGM next February 2025.

They've been lining this one up all year and as shared at the FY Q3 results they now only have c214m euros to pay off the KfW in total - this will be compete in the first six months of 2025 - my assumption is that they will pay it off at the Half Year results shared in May 2025.

Completing the KfW is the final part of all German government and bank support from Covid and as such, it removes any and all barriers to paying a dividend.

Finally, I'm simply hoping that they reintroduce the dividend policy from 2021, which was a 30-40% payout on EAT - earnings after tax. My assumption is that they will declare an EBIT of c1.3 Billion euros in December 2024 and if so, using that as a benchmark suggests a 30% payout on EAT would amount to c40c per share - how's about that!

And of course that's this year - EBIT for 2025 will be even higher - so let's see and getting a bit excited as you can guess

Finally mas - I know and realise that you're a LTH and quite rightly feel very aggrieved with Tui's SP performance - all I can say, is that I think and believe that your moment in the sun and all other LTH's is around the corner................

Hope this helps and GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well albeit a really strange day across all markets, with nothing really causing the drops across the board,. both for our market, but many others too.

Ah well, another day etc etc

Just wanted to share below, which I personally believe is really good news for us and believe that investors and especially ii's etc etc will take the news very well too. Think they've done a really good job and when you read the notification that has just come out, you'll see how positive the board are with regards performance and our future - GLA

https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/investors/news/2024/ir-news/20241112

Hi stevebt,

Hope you're very well and I link in to this site from time to time to see how things are etc.

Just wanted to share that there is no guarantee of declining interest rates. So the city right now believe that there will only be just another 2 cuts by the end of 2025 and therefore if true, you'll still have rates above 4%, which would undoubtedly be a drag on the sector. Of course with Trump taking power next January and likely putting tariffs on items across the world, this will undoubtedly be inflationary and so if rates stay high in America, you can pretty much guarantee that they will here too. Additionally of course you have the inflationary stuff from our own government too following the budget and again, adding in to inflation in 2025.

Finally you know there's stuff happening with regards stamp duty in April 2025 - of course this may well boost a little going into the change, but again, not great for potential 1st time buyers and in to the rest of 2025.

Interesting that for all of the 'ra ra' from the Labour Party helping the housing market, right now, can only see negatives which I guess is why the SP has been hit across the board so much in recent weeks

Clearly just my opinion, but just thought I'd share

Hi all,

Ref Wizz and just to set some context which has already been eluded too - so even with today's good SP result, for the 1 year performance, Wizz is down 40% - ouch!

So huge well done to those who have recently got in to Wizz, but for LTH and especially those who bought in June and at the top of the cycle, afraid they still have a mountain to climb to get parity.

Finally and looking at the 3 travel companies that reported this week, have to say that reading their reports, IAG was way and above everyone else which is reflective both in today's SP performance and their 1 year too.

Just to share and GLA

Hi all,

Wow, what a day for you all.

I'm actually a holder of Tui stock - fairly large holding and just like yourselves in recent months, we've been through hell - no doubts about it!

So simply delighted for you all and for our market in general - simply hoping that as all results come in, we help to fuel each others SP's higher and higher.

Enjoy the day - well deserved

Best Mike and GLA

hi all.

now i share my thinking as below, as i've linked in to this company and your thinking after i submitted my forms for possible compensation going forwards and please, before anyone wants to slice me in to little pieces, can i simply ask that you read my thoughts as below:

so i linked in to martin lewis's 'stuff' on the matter and have to say that whilst i have some self serving views on the guy, with regards to this matter, he's done an excellent job and indeed raising the relevant emails to the companies possibly affected, it's even better and hugely easy to do - i sent off 4 potential claims within an hour.

so whilst i am a lay person on this matter, i decided to raise my claims for one simple reason - it could be 'free money', just as ppi was a few years ago and who refuses free money?

so whether yourselves as investors or indeed the car industry like it, the reality is, is that if the supreme court rules in favour of the fca, then floods of clams will indeed follow - as i say, i bought 4 cars on finance before 2019 and my oldest claims go back to 2002.

now i know that if things move forward, that there may be a cut off going backwards and if so, so be it. the thing i really wanted to share though, is that when i look back at my car loans in the early 2000's, my apr was 18 and 20%!

now if half of that was given to brokers; car companies as commission and it cost me 10% of my loan, damn right i want that money back, because in reality i could have had an apr of 8 or 10% and saved the money accordingly and that's exactly what all other owners who used car finance will think too.

you need to remember that when you asked for finance (certainly applied to me and all 4 of my loans), you were only ever offered one quote - no competition; no other providers, just take what we offer, or no deal - assuming that's because they got their agreed kick back from the finance company and i think it's this part that the fca believes was wrong - no choice; no competition of lenders and tied in to the only one that provided a commission kick back!

so i know many of you will simply **** me off etc etc and if so, so be it, but i wanted to share a 'real story' of a person who will take as much money back as i can and if the supreme court rules in my favour and if it does, you simply need to accept the fact that millions of others will do too.

hiya,

as i mentioned last time israel hit back at iran - it looks as though investors have pretty much had their fill with all of this nonsense; ***** footing around and basically acting like little kids. unless there is some major incident, which i really don't believe will materialise, think investors will simply shrug and move through it like last time.

gla

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

Just in case you didn't know, Ryanair will be publishing their half year results next Monday, 4th and as such, O'Leary will clearly open his mouth etc etc.

During the year, his 'spouting' has certainly moved markets and generally this year, to the downside! So let's hope he has some positive stuff to share and we all benefit accordingly.

GLA

Hi mas,

Hope you're very well.

Yes, have to say it sounds very frustrating and from memory and when we were moving over to Germany, think you mentioned that they traded through a third party to carry through instructions for German traded stocks.

For me, afraid I can only share ref my broker which is Hargreaves Lansdown - standard fees may be a little more expensive than others, although the FX rate when you trade is through a market maker anyway and I track the FX euro to pound via xe and have to say that it mirrors their conversion rate pretty much exactly, so they're clearly not adding any further margin on top with regards the FX rate.

I haven't traded Tui on HL since we moved over to the German market - I know that initially to trade, you had to phone them as there wasn't enough liquidity to trade online, but my sense is that this is now sorted and if anyone else can share their experiences on this one, I'm sure mas would be hugely grateful accordingly.

For me and from what I've seen, HL is a decent platform with decent charges and who get the job done ref execution etc

Hope this helps and best Mike

PS - If you'd be interested in transferring your holding to HL, then simply check out their website accordingly - it's even easier if it's in an ISA

Hi Warrenbuff123,

Hope you're very well.

Think you're expecting 'a bit much really'. As you know we've had a stellar last 4 weeks and all stocks will take a pause from time to time and/or ebb and flow. You simply can't expect the stock to go up in a straight line - simply doesn't happen!

In fact you need down days to take out some of those who have reached their get out price and to enable new buyers to get in - again, simply the mechanics of trading stocks.

Getting above the 8 euros will be a challenge, as is any SP 'top' - still hoping we do in the coming few days, but if we don't, we don't and we'll wait for some news to energise us accordingly.

Some other UK airline updates happening in November, so watch out for Wizz on the 7th; IAG on the 8th; Jet2 on the 21st and Easyjet on the 27th - all could help move our SP.

GLA

Hi Stille,

Pop in to read from time to time and simply wanted to say a huge congrats on your first grandchild - enjoy!

Best Mike

Hi all,

As it's the end of October - pretty much - will use that as sharing my last end of week update on how we've done vs other UK airlines:

A much more muted week, although this time around we finished second out of the five as follows - simply comparing end of today vs end of last Friday:

Top was Wizz, who's had an awful last few months, but a decent week this week at +10.1%; we were second at +5.1%, which considering what a 'tear' we've been on in the last 4 weeks is still rather decent eh; 3rd was IAG at -0.8%; Easyjet at -2.7% and finally Jet2 at -3.5%.

So still hoping that we might get to our year high of 8 euros by the end of next week and wouldn't that be a brilliant way to close off October properly.

Have a brilliant weekend and GLA

Hi Warrenbuff123,

Hope you're very well and many thanks for sharing.

Just one caveat, which may be worth sharing. Took a look at the shortsell.eu site and interestingly, when you dig into the positions, it looks like they're quoting 'all short positions', whether open or not (ie historically open, but no longer) - I've counted 9 companies quoted in the report at or above the 0.5% threshold and that haven't declared, which of course they must do by law, so either there's a raft of companies coming in to play, or, which I believe is more likely, that the 9 companies did indeed have an open position in the past, but these are now closed.

All I can share, is having tracked short sellers for the last 18 months or so, getting accurate information can be hugely difficult.

Again, many thanks for sharing and will see where things go.

Finally and just for ref for everyone, there must have been an after hours big sale last evening, as our SP went from 7.73 at close down to 7.50 by close of the after hours session at 10pm. Assuming this was a big player offloading some stock, which of course they will do from time to time. Guess the really great point to share, is that there was a bounce back pretty much straight away this morning, which again undoubtedly suggests strong momentum to the upside.

Hope this helps and GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're very well and just wanted to come back on a couple of things as mentioned by other posters.

So it's definitely not a 'short squeeze' etc - if anything, shorters have increased their numbers over the last few days and against that truth, our SP movement is even better - for clarity, please see current shorters as below:

Active short positions for Tui Ag (Germany)

ALL ACTIVE POSITIONS GERMANY FULL HISTORY TUI AG

Tui Ag (-)

- EUR- (0.00 %)

# Player Short Position value Latest win/loss Startprice Total value change

1. Qube Research & Technologies Limited 0.60 % - - - - M

2. Two Sigma Investments Lp 0.50 % - - - - M

3. D.e. Shaw & Co. (london) Llp 0.67 % - - - - M

4. Marshall Wace Llp 1.79 % - - - - M

5. Lmr Partners Llp 0.51 % - - - - M

6. Gladstone Capital Management Llp 0.60 % - - - - M

Sum: 4.67 % 0.00 M 0 M 0.00 M

Apologies for copying and pasting, but you get the gist. Interestingly, short positions were above 4% last week and then into the weekend, it dropped to 3.5%, but new players came into play over the last couple of days - so as I say, our positive SP movement, is even better against this lot of idiots and of course, really hope they suffer and then close quickly too.

My assumption with shorters is that they are simply shorting on the assumption of Israel hitting back at Iran - and for that I certainly don't blame them at all - BUT, what if Israel doesn't hit back or in a very considered way that doesn't flare things up - then, you have to think that most will close their positions very quickly indeed, which could be another nice leg up!

Robert makes the point about market makers and in general terms I totally agree. However, I don't think it's the market makers currently - please remember that 53% of our shares are retail owned and this time around, it simply feels like it's those retail investors that have got hold of our share and driving up the SP - why - because there's been no RNS announcements since the 10th October and as you know, legally, big players need to file within a week of their purchase/sale.

My sense is that we are simply being 'noticed' and bought accordingly. Mary has shared some great insight and I totally agree.

That's my ranting for today, but hope it helps and GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well.

Pretty flat day today, which isn't so surprising given all of the positive movements in recents days and weeks and indeed we finished the week TOP again vs our UK airline competitors:

So results week on week comparing end of today vs end of last Friday:

Tui +7.2%; IAG +6.8%; Easyjet +4.2%; Jet2 +2.3% and finally Wizz at -1.3% - Clearly strength amongst our investors and long may it continue

As shared in a previous post, I was looking for 7 euros by the end of this month and just to put this into context for everyone - our low point in the last 6 months was on the 7th August when our SP was 5.35 and even last month on the 6th September our SP was languishing at 5.74 - so since our low point back in August, as of today, our SP is +37% - not bad eh for 2 months!

Right now, 8 euros is looking a strong option for the end of this month and if so, then November, which tends to be a strong month for travel/airline stocks anyway, could see us break through our high for this year and onwards and upwards - barring of course any flare up between Israel and Iran.

Hope this helps and have a terrific weekend all and GLA

Hi mas,

Many thanks for coming back. I'll genuinely look forward to the time - which actually I believe will be the end of this year - when if you so decide to do so, you'll be in a position to cash in have balanced your books!

Best and GLA

Hi Mary & mas,

Mary, totally agree with your sentiments and have to say that I was hoping for 7 euros by the end of the month and so right now, 'way ahead' and long may it continue!

mas, really not sure what you're hoping for? With a reverse 10 for 1 stock split and 3 capital raises in the last 3 years, Tui would never be 'like it used to be'. With regards Covid - all I can say is that if it's really having a significant impact, then when we publish our biggest 'ever' FY24 Revenue in December, then clearly loads and loads of customers have a very different view, as of course I do too.

The risk with regards the Middle East etc is simply 'one of those things' and yes of course we are vulnerable to such stuff, although as I shared a little while ago, it's looking like lots of investors are now simply looking through that risk as it drags on and on - don't get me wrong - if the ME should 'blow up' with Iran and the US pulled into such matters, then of course these will have a material impact - but if that happened, it would affect world markets too and not just us.

We're on track to be towards the Top of the Pile again this week with regards ourselves vs the UK airline SP's and to be honest I'm not sure what else you'd like? That would make 3 weeks on the trot!

Of course, I'm sure loads of us would want the SP to be in double figures, which by the way, I strongly believe we will be by the year end and if reports of Sinwar's death are true this afternoon and Hamas then surrenders, then our stock could fly to double digits even quicker.

In December, we'll publish the BEST results amongst any UK airline stock and as such, we'll be re-rated - as I've shared many times before, I have a year end medium term target and if that's hit, I'll remain invested for another 12-18 months accordingly.

GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

So just giving the results in SP movements for this week, ie close today vs close last Friday:

We were top with +4%; IAG +3.3%; Easyjet +0.5%; Jet 2 FLAT; Wizz -4.5%

So again, momentum continues with ourselves, which of course is great to see and against all of the turbulence ref the Middle East, not bad at all.

We all know though that this could change dramatically and based on what Israel might do ref Iran, but the markets are clearly much more sanguine about things this time around than they were last April - could simply be that the markets know that ourselves will bank 'big' this year for 2024 having protected a great Summer!

Have a great weekend and hope this helps and best GLA