Member Info for MikeS02

Hi all,

So hope you're all very well and enjoying the ride - at long last!

So it feels like we may be near an inflexion point with the SP and purely based around the shorters.

So shorters are still at 6.99% as of tonight and this still represents approx 35million shares, so a significant amount.

You have to think that some of the movement over the last couple of days, is where the shorters have trimmed their position(s) and if so, if the SP can march upwards to say 9.50 etc, you have to think that the pressure would be on for even more cashing in of the short positions, which of course will drive upward momentum.

So they're clearly hanging on in and let's see what Friday brings - historically can be a weak day for our stock, but with recent momentum, who knows and wouldn't it be great to continue on the upward trajectory, forcing more of the short positions to close

Finally and I'm sure you all know, but closing at 9.08 euros is our highest close since the RI back in March 2023; sets a new 12 month high for our stock - so moving in the right direction

Just thought I'd share and best

GLA

Many thanks Stille - very much appreciated, although still believe there's legs in the old dog yet and my plan right now, is to stick with the stock through to the December results and then see where things are vs my SP plan - good luck for you too - think you're invested in Easyjet which I know has been your main stay and also Wizz more recently, so best again

Hi all,

Hope you're enjoying the day - I certainly am, as it's brilliant to see a really positive SP uplift in response to what was a brilliant Q3 and 9 Month YTD - For once!!

Just sharing that there is a major resistance line at 8.50 euros and so to continue onwards and upwards, we need to break through with conviction, ie stay above this line for about 2-3 end of day closes - then, it's generally regarded that the resistance is broken and likely why we've 'stalled' a little at 8.48 - will be interesting to see through til Friday and GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

So just sharing one thought if I may:

So results strong as expected and assuming the trading 'call' at 9.30am this morning was equally positive and hence the SP rise so far today.

The interesting bit for me is that there was no mention at all about the Dividend Policy and I can only assume that this was the case, because the BOD will 'imminently' release their policy accordingly and so no need to update in the presentation - if anyone attended the call this morning, wondered if this was mentioned and any update?

So hoping and believing that the Policy will be released in the coming days, which would be another positive for the SP going forwards

Let's enjoy our day 'for once' eh

Best and GLA

Hi Forest34,

Hope you're very well.

The short positions are from shorteurope.com, which I find to be excellent. I've used other sites before, but they seem to struggle to update etc etc

So they change pretty much in 'real time' as trades close and certainly within the same day.

Hope this helps and best

Hi Dazza1118,

Hope you're very well and just to let you know that the short positions are still the same at close of trade today, ie 7.26% and approx 37million shares. Guess what will partially determine the SP tomorrow, is whether any of the shorters close their positions, which I personally hope and believe that they will - how many and how many shares traded could set our SP up for a 'bump' and let's hope eh

Hope this helps and best and GLA

Hi all,

So very interesting SP movements literally between 2.30-2.40pm our time this pm.

The SP 'shot up' 4.5% in minutes and I think I now know why - the SP has settled somewhat since, but still, the below link makes for VERY interesting reading - clearly it's come out 'in advance' which it certainly shouldn't have done, but hey, increasing EBIT guidance for the rest of the year looks good to me, when the business is only 7 weeks way from the end of the FY25 - have also said that sales will be towards the lower end of the 5-10% growth range too, so mas, looks like you're right too - will be very interesting to read the full report tomorrow morning - have to say that for me and guessing the finance world too, would very much rather have that profit in the bank thank you very much!

Right now, VERY much looking forward to seeing the report tomorrow - just need to add the Dividend Policy and I'll be very happy indeed!

Please take a look and hope it helps and best - GLA for tomorrow

https://uk.marketscreener.com/news/tui-ag-tui-raises-its-fy-2025-underlying-ebit-guidance-to-now-be-in-the-range-9-11-prior-7-10-ce7c51dadb8af523

Hi mas,

Should have also said that yes, unfortunately not watching the shows you watch etc - guess with regards advertising etc, the key bit, which of course we simply wouldn't know, is that 'is this years advertising' any different to last years during peak? As we know, there's lots of quality businesses that advertise during their Golden Quarter, because they simply want to max out their positions accordingly.

Finally, hoping that the US CPI report in about 10 minutes isn't a great surprise to the downside, as this could impact all markets trading this pm - simply hope that it's in-line with economist projections and then we move on to tomorrow

GLA

Hi mas,

Many thanks for the clarity back - really appreciated.

We'll all know soon enough eh and very best

GLA

Hi mas,

Hope you're very well.

Why would they report a slowdown - last Q they were only -1% yr on yr for Summer bookings and no other airline or tourist company that have reported recently have said anything about a slowdown, so just interested in your rationale. Also and as mentioned, if they were facing a slowdown etc, they would be 'pulling out' all the stops ref deals to drive momentum; loads of advertising etc etc, but as mentioned, if you look at the deals side of things, there's pretty much 'nothing' for the next 4 weeks and so for me, this shows that their 'lates' bookings are very robust. As for advertising, apart from the expected from time to time, seen nothing special or suggesting panic?

Ref the Dividend, if I'm honest, it's not about paying a dividend, but actually getting a policy up and running for me and hoping this is released on Wednesday

Take care and best

Hi all,

Hope you're very well and here we are, back at another quarterly result.

So just thought I'd share a little as below and hope it helps:

We all know that the results on Wednesday will be good.

As such, will simply focus on two 'hopes' I have and that I'd like to see on Wednesday:

1. Summer bookings - so we've been hit the last two Q's for the fact that Summer bookings were a 'little light'. So simply hoping that bookings show growth and that the ASP holds up too and of course that the BOD shows confidence accordingly - no reason to think otherwise for me. Interestingly, I looked at the Tui site at the weekend and deliberately looked at the deals section - very, very little for August and most targeted for mid September - early October, which to me sends a good positive message about current trading etc. Additionally and even when there were 50% reductions, this was on holidays of 3 or 4 nights only and of course, selling two of these for that particular week, would then still result in good profitability and of course sales.

2. Announcement of Dividend Policy - So for me, alongside above, this is the 'biggie' and which could be a driver of our SP both on the day and beyond - so in the last two Q presentations, the BOD have stated that they are very close to sharing the new policy and that it will be out by the end of FY25 - well FY25 ends in 7 weeks and FY26 starts in early October. So this Wednesday seems like an appropriate time to share and deliver against their timeline accordingly. If, as I expect, the Dividend is 'generous', as it always has been in the past, then have no doubts at all, that such an announcement would be significant on the day and would absolutely power the SP - why - because lots of businesses and indeed private investors stay away from companies that don't pay a Dividend and as such, this should and could open the floodgates, so to speak.

A final point to note too - as we all know, we've been 'plagued' by shorters and right now, 7.26% or approx 37million shares are shorted - imagine what could happen on Wednesday with all of the above playing out...................

GLA

Hi all,

Supreme Court ruling is coming out at 4.30pm today, accordingly to the BBC 1pm news and thought I'd share in case you didn't know

Hi Carrington,

Just to let you know that IAG results are actually on Friday and not tomorrow and hope this helps

There were two specific issues with Jet2 FY25 results that resulted in their decline a couple of weeks ago - they made less % operating profit yr on yr and they failed to provide FY26 guidance and used the excuse that the current market was predicated on last minute bookings and as such didn't have the visibility to provide guidance

Hi all,

Just a quick update - huge apologies - got the release date for CPI in the US wrong in my last post - it comes out at 1.30pm today, Tuesday

Hi all,

Shared previously that I check in from time to time to this BB, as generally speaking it's got some decent commentary - not a holder.

Just sharing as some have commented about this Thursday's results and have to say, I expect them to be strong - certainly the last Q as it contains Easter, which is non comparative yr on yr and if they can't make that one pay, then certainly an issue, which I don't foresee. So I'd be very surprised if the results don't go down well and looking for a 5% mini 'pop'. Of course it'd dependent on how things are tracking for Summer etc, but again, would expect this to be in line and doing well etc etc.

Good luck with the results - I'm a Tui holder, so all good news when it comes to Tourism/Airlines etc , is very much appreciated, as good results tend to help the whole sector.

Finally and I know it's been referenced by some - US inflation figures out this Wednesday at 1.30pm our time (I know one or two have quoted tomorrow, but it's actually Wednesday), may scupper things a bit especially if it's a hot to very hot reading based on inflation now becoming visible form Trump's tariffs and just a heads up

GLA

Hi all,

I drop in to this bb from time to time, as commentary is 'generally helpful and useful'.

Just sharing this as I know that many of you knew him - so today Tui announced that he has joined their Supervisory Board, some 10 years after he left them to go to EZJ and so just for reference

The figures today are horrendous and the CEO and BOD should be sacked - the ONLY reason they made any net profit was because of a Tax CREDIT of 194 million euros.

They are clearly out of their depth - so a business generating over 5 Billion sales, makes no money at all - says it all I'm afraid and will be hit hard again when the US opens this pm, have no doubts

Hi Clank,

Hope you're very well.

My simple rationale ref the Divi, is that when one is announced at the end of the year, the ii's and rm's will have a definite reason to invest in our shares, which of course right now, many of them don't and because we don't pay a Divi.

Additionally and simply based on their history of Divi payments - when it's announced, I believe it will be at the top end of Divi's paid by competitors in our field and as such, will be seen as a better investment than many

Finally, as the shares aligned to the Divi payment have to be bought by the AGM in February 2026, again I simply believe that as such, demand after the announcement will be strong - this information I believe is typical of all German based businesses and as such, the day after the AGM, shares become ex-Divi - so believe between results day and the AGM, interest and demand will be good and strong

Clearly just my thinking and best and GLA

Hi Sanyo86,

Hope you're very well and Yes, I'm holding too.

Just like you and as shared previously, I WON'T sell out before they confirm the Divi scheme and all in all, results were decent - clearly Q3 will be significantly better based on Easter falling in to it and by then of course, all of the noise will have dissipated and rational thought hopefully will see the light of day.

Don't get me wrong, like many here, I wonder how long a good 'pop' will take, but I'm now very, very clear - will hold the stock til full results day in mid December and then by the end of the year, I'll certainly be out, as expect all of the really good news to be then baked in

Finally and having just read the results in 'note form' as opposed to the presentation and in the note form, it clearly states the Divi announcement will come at the end of 2025 - so clearly assuming main results day and yet the presentation still says FY25, which for a Company ending their 2025 financial year at the end of September, means exactly that - mind you, based on their lack of ability to communicate even the basics, no wonder eh - so my thinking is now Divi news to be alongside main results in December

Best and GLA