Member Info for MikeS02

Hi Bobbins and Stille,

Many thanks for your thoughts as always.

Stille, the point of controlling Kharg Island isn't about controlling it per se - although can I see a world whereby Trump actually wants oil from Iran in compensation for the cost of the war - unfortunately as crazy as he is, I can! Control would simply give them a negotiating tool to say to Iran, open the Strait and you can have Kharg Island back. Ref the Oman piece - my understanding is that the protocol is for 'after the war has ended' and also not sure if you know, but the 40+ countries that discussed a political ending to the Strait blockade yesterday have all said that such a protocol charging movement through the Strait is a non starter - so guess that one is dead in the water right now

I'm now thinking that they may go in to Kharg Island on Monday morning and rather than tomorrow - although again with Trump who knows? Also Monday of course ties in with his threat a couple of weeks ago, when he gave Iran to the 6th April to do a deal and open up the Strait, or he would unleash hell on earth ref knocking out power etc - he already said in a last night rant that he will continue hitting bridges and then move on the the power grids etc.

and interestingly, he's never withdrawn the 6th April 'threat'

Really believe that whether it's tomorrow or Monday or into the start of next week, that there will clearly be an escalation in 'real terms', as he's not only losing his mind, but he's losing the narrative and the war when it comes to oil prices; Strait of Hormuz etc etc

Just sharing and hope everyone has a lovely Easter

Hi all,

Again, really interesting that the markets seem 'desperate' for any good news.

So Iran is looking at a charging mechanism for the Strait - they've already started it with China paying $2m per ship yesterday.

Why oh why does anyone believe that such a toll is for anyone other than Iran's 'friends'? They've made it really clear and I totally believe that the same will apply with any tolls too, that they will only apply to friendly countries and certainly not to the US; Europe; other ME countries housing US bases etc etc - so in reality, it may enable a few more ships to pass, but I totally expect any update to share that it only applies to friendly countries and to everyone else, the Straits are still closed!

Finally and as shared in a post yesterday, I believe that Trump will take on Kharg Island over this weekend - guess we'll see eh

Hi Jaynemchand,

Many thanks for sharing, but have to say that I don't believe a single word coming out of Trump's mouth when it comes to so called negotiations, which Iran has called out numerous times as 'just not true'! Additional;y, he then states that he'll consider such a ceasefire when Iran opens up the Strait of Hormuz - thought he didn't care about the Strait anymore? As I say, don't believe a single word........

Hi all,

So just thought I'd share ahead of Trump's speech tonight.

Whilst the market has got very excited in the last two days or so, I unfortunately believe that there is more to come:

1. So Trump tonight could signal that he has decided to withdraw his troops, but for me highly unlikely - he'll witter on about how great America is and how much damage they've done to Iran, which in reality they undoubtedly have

2. BUT, they haven't removed the threat of a nuclear weapon and they haven't opened up the Strait of Hormuz and whilst Trump has been passing the buck on the Straits back to everyone else, I really don't believe he'll leave Iran until it's back up and open - so my thinking goes as follows - after all of his wittering tonight, he'll then state that the final work to do is remove the threat of a nuclear bomb and I'm guessing he'll give Iran until the 6th April, which was his original date to destroy lots of stuff - for them to give up their highly enriched uranium, or Iran will have to face the consequences of the initial threat. My sense is what he'll really do come this weekend, is that he will take Kharg Island and use it as a negotiation tool for the enriched uranium and opening the Strait of Hormuz - of course what we then don't know is how Iran will then react - they've spoke at length about what they intend to do, but will they? Only if this last bit happens, do we all need to get our tin hats on etc etc........

Just thought I'd share and getting through this weekend without the above, will indeed suggest that Trump is pulling out quickly - take Kharg Island and the timelines and bets are somewhat 'off'

This isn't new! Iran have been talking about guarantees for at least 2 weeks and it's gone nowhere - as they want a guarantee over war reparations; guarantee over owning the Strait of Hormuz and charging for transit etc etc - just press getting excited for no good reason!

Hi all,

Just thought I'd share the other part of Trump's post last night:

And the other part of his post :

The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Again, a total clown, but clever way to pass the buck eh - can't see Nato or indeed any other country getting involved in this one and if so, oil prices will stay high for a very long time!

Hi all,

Just thought I'd share the other part of Trump's post last night:

And the other part of his post :

The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Again, a total clown, but clever way to pass the buck eh - can't see Nato or indeed any other country getting involved in this one and if so, oil prices will stay high for a very long time!

Hmmm, Don't be too sure - the guy's an absolute idiot and in reality, Iran have played an absolute blinder with Hormuz and indeed striking the Gulf states, which have clearly blindsided Trump and his military.

See below:

Despite his confident tone and apparent willingness to end the conflict, there are growing signs that suggest the U.S. is gearing up to commit more resources to the overseas military operation.

This week, The Independent reported that the Trump administration is weighing the deployment of thousands of additional troops to the Middle East.

The Wall Street Journal later reported that upwards of 2,200 Marines are already shipping out to join U.S. Central Command, which oversees operations in the region. Trump declined to comment on the matter on Friday, saying, "As far as troops are concerned, I can't tell you what we're doing.”

So he's clearly still sending troops etc etc and I have no doubt, he'll look to take on Kharg Island next weekend when troops etc are likely to be in place - also, winding down, if indeed that ever happens, DOES NOT mean opening up Hormuz - if anything, that would give Iran even more 'power' to demand stuff before they open it up - they've also stated that Hormuz will not operate after the war, as it did before and they're thinking of charging shipping for its use.

As I say, it's Trump being Trump - big mouth and totally being embarrassed - or is that embarrassing!!

Hmmm, Don't be too sure - the guy's an absolute idiot and in reality, Iran have played an absolute blinder with Hormuz and indeed striking the Gulf states, which have clearly blindsided Trump and his military.

See below:

Despite his confident tone and apparent willingness to end the conflict, there are growing signs that suggest the U.S. is gearing up to commit more resources to the overseas military operation.

This week, The Independent reported that the Trump administration is weighing the deployment of thousands of additional troops to the Middle East.

The Wall Street Journal later reported that upwards of 2,200 Marines are already shipping out to join U.S. Central Command, which oversees operations in the region. Trump declined to comment on the matter on Friday, saying, "As far as troops are concerned, I can't tell you what we're doing.”

So he's clearly still sending troops etc etc and I have no doubt, he'll look to take on Kharg Island next weekend when troops etc are likely to be in place - also, winding down, if indeed that ever happens, DOES NOT mean opening up Hormuz - if anything, that would give Iran even more 'power' to demand stuff before they open it up - they've also stated that Hormuz will not operate after the war, as it did before and they're thinking of charging shipping for its use.

As I say, it's Trump being Trump - big mouth and totally being embarrassed - or is that embarrassing!!

Hi all,

Please see H1 results for last year as per the link below showing that H1 ends at the end of this month

https://easy.com/easyjet-results-for-the-half-year-ended-31-march-2025/

Hi Primetime51 and all,

Many thanks for sharing, but again, please remember that they are talking about H1 in their trading year terms and NOT the Half Year for 2026 - so H1 covers October 2025 through to the end of March 2026, ie their first 6 months of trading the 2026 financial year and no more. As shared in yesterday's post, Summer 2026 is currently hedged 62% and hope this helps

Hi all,

I know a few have quoted the H1 fuel hedge, which is absolutely true, but please remember that H1 finishes at the end of this month! Also, whilst hedged at 62% for H2, the additional 38% of fuel needed for the key Summer flying season, will be 'huge' as of course it's 38% of the peak season and as such, the fuel use and fuel cost will be massive

So just to share

Clearly not an issue with both days in the blue!

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

So will be interested to see tomorrow how many shares were bought today as part of the BB.

Have to say that if on 'red days' for the markets like today and we stay flat-ish or better and then on the blue market days, we have a decent leg up, then for me, I'm very happy to take that, thank you very much! Have no doubts whatsoever, that without the BB today, we would certainly have been in the red for sure - totally understand that there will be days that even with the BB, we'll be in the red, but if it minimises the drop, what else can we ask for? GLA

Hi Phyl,

Many thanks for sharing and just in case some don't know, this is for the first tranche of the BB, ie 600 million - so assuming will instigate the second tranche of 600 million from the 19th September and likely through to next year's FY results in March - not bad eh!

Hi everyone,

Hope you're all very well.

Just a quick share - so the 9 day RSI has fallen to 28.83 and the 14 day to 34.56 - in case you don't know, an RSI of 30 or below says that the stock is oversold and hope this helps

Hi all,

Huge thanks and really appreciate everyones input - Best regards Mike

Hi mas,

Hope you're very well, although I totally understand the pain that you and all other holders will be going through right now and indeed the significant unknowns are sometimes even worse - so please keep your spirits up as best as you can.

I've included a link to a report from Marketscreener, which talks about the two ships stranded in the Middle East currently - I've included the report as it covers what initial costs may go into repatriation etc, additionally though it also talks about current metrics for the Company still being intact currently - of course the major Q that none of us know, is how long this war will last and of course with Trump very much in the driving seat, it's very hard to predict.

So hope it helps and as I say, please keep your spirits up

https://uk.marketscreener.com/news/tui-caught-in-the-crosshairs-of-the-middle-east-conflict-ce7e5fdbdb8bfe23

Hi Sparz,

Hope you're very well.

L&G have pretty much announced the Divi and buy back sums in advance, so can't see these changing into next Wednesday, unless the market falls off a cliff? Only thing that might change as per my previous postings today, is whether they keep their powder dry ref a special Divi etc etc and/or a reduction to the solvency cover, which I'm really hoping that they announce

Of course, we'll soon know and best regards

Hi mjg22,

Think you mean April 2023, which was the last time the carnival sp was in the £6's and just for clarity