Member Info for MikeS02

Hi Frank6,

Hope you're very well.

Simply don't believe a buy back would happen for at least the next 2 years - why - because the business isn't making any profits right now - if it spent out of its cash to pay a dividend, the SP would be slaughtered in my opinion, as analysts and big corporate players would simply believe that the BOD's have lost the plot! Dividend payments need to come out of profits and until they deliver a good profit number, which is likely FY28 and beyond, it's a waiting game til then.

With regards shorters - out of my experience they have an 'amazing' aptitude to keep their powder dry until the pips squeak and again in my experience, this doesn't happen until something major happens - now a full re-opening of the SOH may be a 'partial trigger' for some to cave in, but as it's likely that oil will remain at an elevated price for the rest of 2026, it's likely that many will simply ride the wave and expect negatives to continue into the rest of 2026 - they are incredibly difficult to predict and also incredibly difficult to get rid of

Clearly just my thinking and GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're very well, although I realise that today is a bit of a rubbish day.

Just coming through, as I've been following the Sky/ITV tie up recently and as such, have been reading peoples comments as below - from what I understand and let's take it that Sky/Comcast does indeed make an offer in the next few weeks, that whilst there would undoubtedly be an immediate uptick in the SP, the reality of actually closing the deal itself could take 18-24 months and following lots of scrutiny by various government and statutory regulators? If so and whilst you get the initial 'kick' of the SP, any monies to be paid as a special dividend, would have to wait until all of this is completed and hence no monies at all would come investors way until 18-24 months and then the same would apply to any premium being applied or other players coming in to try to buy the studios, ie up to 2 years later

Just wanted to check that what I'm saying above is correct and appreciate any thoughts back

hi all,

hope you're very well.

listening to what trump has been saying on his way back to the us today from china, looks like he's lining things up to go 'back in' to iran.

see commentary below from al jazeera reporting:

trump says us agreed to iran ceasefire due to requests from other countries, may go back and do ‘cleanup work’

speaking to reporters on air force one following his trip to china, trump said the us may have to go back and do “a little cleanup work” in iran, without elaborating.

“we’ve wiped out their armed forces essentially. we may have to do a little cleanup work because we had a little monthlong ceasefire, i guess you call it,” trump said.

he added that the us mainly agreed to the ceasefire due to appeals from other nations, specifically ****stan. “i wouldn’t have really been in favour of it, but we did it as a favour to ****stan,” said trump.

additionally, he said the following about their nuclear programme:

trump open to 20-year suspension of iran’s nuclear programme if tehran’s commitment is ‘real’

the us president has said he would be ok with iran suspending its nuclear weapons programme for 20 years as long as its commitment is “real”, according to reuters.

as if eh................

just thought i'd share and who knows where this goes - certainly getting more likely that he'll be going back in, in my opinion

hi ec,

hope you're very well - i'm out too.

got in about 3 weeks ago, as i thought that the ceasefire and all of the positivity from ****stan etc etc, was worth the risk back then.

it's hugely interesting that ****stan hasn't said a word since iran fed back their thinking and trump went on one of his nutter rants again yesterday - could i see china making any difference to the war when trump goes between wednesday - friday - simply don't think so, as china is more than able to get their oil demands from others around the world, so they really don't have any motivation at all to step in - they'll undoubtedly say some 'reassuring words', but genuinely don't believe they'll change the dial one bit.

may well step back in when the dust has settled and for me, it has to be when the soh is genuinely looking like it's going to re-open.

believe trump in the next few days will either re-start 'project freedom' or he'll end the ceasefire and do some further hits to iran, with israel on their tail

good luck to everyone

Hi Stan36,

Huge thanks for sharing and could well excellent news for us

Hi sundezena,

Hope you're very well.

Just as I shared a post with Pogo01 last night, can I share one with you:

Can I suggest that you simply leave Pogo01 'alone' - If you simply don't 'egg' them on, they will disappear and go on to other sites where they can get a response etc etc - so I'm sure alongside me, that if you don't react to any of Pogo01's posts from now, he will quickly move on and if it's ok, that applies to anyone else who responds and would like Pogo01 to move on accordingly

Just a thought and hope that's ok and GLA

Hi Pogo001,

I'm a relatively new investor to Wizz and I see your postings and just have a few Q's and observations:

1. Can I ask your motivation for the constantly negative posts - as investors, don't you think we know the risks of investing in ANY stock?? Of course we do

2. Are you trying to share your wisdom? If so, it's not wisdom, as again, the vast majority of us have been investing for many years and understand the risks; possible trap doors etc

3. In many of your posts, you share that the business is useless; going bust etc - so here's the thing - about 15 years ago, Amazon would have been in your sights as they were in many ways what Wizz is today - they invested everything back in to their business for many years and because of this, their shares were on a roller coaster during that time - pretty much exactly what Wizz Air is doing right now - investing everything into growing the most fuel efficient fleet in Europe and one of the most fuel efficient in the world - not a bad badge of honour eh - then there was the moment in time, when they were able to balance off the investment with starting to reward their investors too and no surprises really - the stock simply took off and has done ever since and in to the juggernaut it is today. Clearly we're at the very early stages with Wizz, but what I can tell you is it's exciting times with Wizz - already the 3rd biggest airline in Europe after Ryanair and Easyjet and have plans to double the size of the fleet by 2030. Additionally, their engine issue will be fully sorted by the end of 2027 calendar year and it will be all guns a blazing in to FY2028. There is NO other airline with these plans in place; no other with the possible trajectory of Wizz in the coming years and for me, I think I've found something that excites me - the 'possibility' of investing in a company that could and should be very special indeed in just a few short years

Clearly just my thinking and GLA

Hi all,

So today has been interesting and of course, the markets have reacted as expected with regards to the SOH action.

For me, it's clear that Iran simply doesn't have the ability; capacity etc to deal with what the US is currently doing in the SOH and I strongly believe that within the next 3-5 days, that it will become very clear that the US has nailed everything down and that ships; tankers etc will start to pass and once that's done and dusted, oil prices will fall considerably!

Of course Iran will likely target the Gulf states again, but if and when they lose control of the SOH, then their key leverage is done and dusted!

We'll take a hit on the SP in the next few days, but the short term pain will be worth every £

GLA

Hi all,

Yes, will be interesting which airlines use this facility and in effect reduce their schedule for Summer - think IAG will be the biggest user and if for nothing else other than the volume of flights it does in what is an older fleet and therefore using much more fuel than ourselves - who knows, we may even pick up some of their slots as they become available? Will know undoubtedly when they announce their results this coming Friday

GLA

Hi all,

With the collapse of Spirit airlines last night, I thought I'd ask the AI bot if there are any other US airlines that don't hedge their jet fuel costs and can you believe it, that the vast majority of them don't!!

So American Airlines; United Airlines; Southwest; JetBlue; Alaskan and Hawaiian airlines all DO NOT hedge their fuel - have to say to me this beggars belief and of course totally different to our airlines here in Europe and my goodness will they suffer - may also put Trump under pressure too, to find a way forward in his mess with Iran

The only airline to watch out for in Europe is Lufthansa and that's because unlike ourselves and the vast majority of European carriers, Lufthansa actually hedges by using crude oil and gas oil as proxies rather than jet fuel itself. Because jet fuel prices (the crack spread) have surged much faster than crude oil, there is a hedging mismatch for Lufthansa and as such, it's estimated that they've already had to take a $1 Billion hit -and undoubtedly why they cancelled 20k flights between April and October 2026 about a month ago - so please bear this in mind when Lufthansa reports it's results next Wednesday, 6th May 2026.

Hope this helps and best

Hi Noisey,

Hope you're very well and just to let you know that Captain B777 came on about a month ago and said he was totally tied up with work and as such, wouldn't be on this board for quite some time and hope this helps

Hi bobbins2 & Swimmer2026,

Many thanks for sharing your thoughts back and of course no issue at all bobbins2 with regards a different opinion as of course this is what 'chat' is all about?

Just a couple of things to share - so Uranium is Trump's key reason for going to war, but I totally understand that his objectives have changed over time and if not day to day, but take a look at his earliest statements about going to war, and nuclear weapons/uranium is always at the top.

With regards the Strait of Hormuz and the blockade - my 2-4 weeks scenario came from the potential oil saturation that I shared on a previous comms earlier in the week and the belief that saturation of oil storage facilities will be 'maxed out' by mid to late May 2026 and if so, that would bring Iran to the negotiating table and just to clarify and hope this helps,

GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

Just sharing some thoughts:

So it wouldn't surprise me if tomorrow or Sunday, Trump does indeed do some further 'stuff' in Iran - the talks are clearly going nowhere and he doesn't want to wait around - clearly Iran wanting to postpone talks on the Uranium and nuclear simply won't cut it - remember that was and is the very point of the war, so Trump needs the nuclear stuff to be sorted first and not last, so pretty much an impasse.

He could wait out the blockade, but that would likely take 2-4 weeks of further waiting until the Iranians really start to feel pain and not sure Trump is willing to wait that long, with no movement from the Iran side.

So for me, tomorrow or Sunday, he could hit more stuff in Iran itself, but I think he will also likely target the Strait of Hormuz itself and wouldn't that be somewhat amazing and only in the concept of it may well break Iran's grasp of the Strait once and for all!- clearly LOADS of dangers for the US side, but if they succeed, they will of course be the best thing going across the world and Trump would totally relish such a standing! Even if he does indeed do some stuff in the Strait of Hormuz, I think it's highly likely that he'll keep the blockade in place too and simply to 'choke' off everything until it's finally sorted.

So whilst I feared further hits on Iran would tank our SP, if it frees up the Strait of Hormuz, then I actually believe that such a hit will be very well received by the markets come next Monday/Tuesday and certainly by our SP - he would have broken the one and only leverage that Iran now has

Like many, I really do hope that negotiations can work, but I sense that he is ready to do other stuff on the ground - as I say, really hoping it's to do with the Strait of Hormuz and at last have a pathway forward

Clearly just my thinking and have a lovely bank holiday weekend

Hi EmeraldCarrots,

Hope you're very well - the oil fall today may be to do with the last day of the month, meaning that from tomorrow, prices are based on July futures and not June as currently and for July, the current spot price is just under $110 - just a thought and hope it helps.

Naturally hoping it's something much bigger, but will take the drop today for sure eh

GLA

Hi NCTrade,

Hope you're very well and huge thanks for sharing - an excellent read!

Hi all,

Just wanted to say a huge congrats for Jet 2's trading statement this morning - in the current climate, thought it was an excellent update and not many can say that eh! Congrats again

Hi all,

Would help if I shared the link as below

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/trump-says-iran-has-days-left-before-its-forced-to-halt-oil-production-others-say-it-could-be-2-months-155158381.html

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

Following on from my post yesterday, looks like Trump has shared his thinking in the last couple of hours on the matter and as thought, it looks like it's his main way to get Iran to capitulate on the nuclear issue, without escalating the war any further.

If you take the 'average' suggests that timings are in line with thoughts shared yesterday , although of course would be great if it really did happen in the coming days eh and forced everyone to the negotiating table and a decent result and hope it helps

GLA

Hi MadMat,

Hope you're very well.

Just for a little clarity - No, I wasn't assuming that everything was empty. The starting point was their usual storage set up and then projecting from there. Mid May seems a particular crunch time in terms of saturation and of course getting anywhere near that level will already begin to affect production - so feels like the next two weeks will be critical and hopefully will move the dial ref negotiations

Hope this helps and best and GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're very well and just sharing some thoughts as to why I strongly believe that the Iran war will be finished by the end of next month latest.

As we all know, Kharg Island is Iran's main oil port, where it ships 90% of it's oil to export - they can't use anywhere else along Iran's coast, as the coastal waters are too shallow for the massive ships that they like to fill up and taking up to 2 million barrels each.

With the blockade by the US starting on the 13th April, it is clearly having a material effect on Iran simply because of their posturing and rhetoric, which has only grown louder in recent days and which to me says that they're starting to feel uneasy /panic a little etc

In case you didn't know, Iranian oil accounts for 50% of the Iranian government's yearly income and 25% of Iran's GDP and directly funds all of the salaries and operational costs of the armed forces and so clearly a very big deal for them.

So the clock is certainly ticking for when Kharg Island and any other oil storage facilities in Iran becomes saturated with oil and all of it's storage facilities are full - If ALL of Iran's onshore and Kharg Island storage facilities are taken into account - roughly 86 million barrels of oil - and it's current floating tankers are taken into account too, then the country has a buffer of roughly 22-26 days since the start of the blockade, before their entire storage becomes saturated - once that's achieved, then they will have no choice to cut production pretty ruthlessly - Once this is achieved (called shutting in), then this can cause permanent damage to the production facilities through 'water coning', which can then reduce long term production by up to 25% of their total output, which of course would be a disaster for them - one final interesting point - Iran ships 90% of it's oil to China and again, you have to think that the closer they get to saturation, that China will put a lot of pressure on them to sort things out

So simply wanted to share that the blockade is a very clever way of squeezing Iran economically and the clock is certainly ticking as to when their storage becomes critical - as such, strongly believe (barring any 'nutter' decisions and actions by either side), that the war will be done and dusted by the end of May 2026

Clearly just my thinking and GLA