Member Info for MikeS02

Hi all,

As I've shared before, I use Al Jazeera 'live' updates on Iran to keep on top of developments.

So just to keep you updated - so about 10 minutes ago, the White House shared that Witkoff and Kusher will travel to Islamabad on Saturday morning and Vance has been put on stand by to travel as needed - so clearly something is moving, which of course is great and keeping everything crossed!

GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well albeit a very tough week!

Certainly not helped by that loud mouth, O'Leary and his comments yesterday.

Thanks to everyone who has shared articles about Mr Varadi in recent days - as a new investor to Wizz, I've been very impressed with his calm approach; scope and vision for the future and not pandering to idiots (aka O'Leary) and also not panicking in any way about the oil situation - he is very matter of fact - he strongly believes right now that things will get sorted and there's no issue with supply, although that of course could change and if there is a fuel shortage he will deal with it accordingly - also great to hear that Wizz has already taken proactive action in managing costs really closely as the Iran conflict kicked off - in my mind, he's doing everything you'd expect of a CEO and just thought I'd share my thoughts

GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

I actually thought that the update today was pretty good - so with them delivering an EBIT of 5-25m for Q2, that now means that every quarter they are delivering positive operating profit and had it not been for this war, those figures would have gone down really well based on a usual quarterly update to the city - so as I say, a decent update on profit.

The significant 'downers' though are what's coming through now, as of course Q2 ended at the end of March and what's coming down the line is a little concerning and probably why the shares took a bit of a hit today, although noting that all airline/holiday stocks were down today. It's certainly concerning that hotel bookings are down 7% yr on yr , as they've been a real star performer recently and also that airline bookings are down 7% too for Summer 26. Guess like everyone, no one knows what's next. although if Trump is really serious about ending this 'useless' war, which I think he is, as he's getting so much pressure back in the US, then you have to believe that in the not too distant future and hopefully by the end of April, that he will drop the blockade; Iran will re-open the Strait of Hormuz and things may then settle down - can only hope eh and GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well.

So like you and everyone else around the world, this war etc is turning into a circus and with pain being felt around the world, it's a disgrace!

Now we all know that Trump is a massive part of the problem, but I have to say that if Trump does indeed go back in to Iran and start bombing and destroying again, then for me, Iran right now deserves everything they get.

Why - because ever since the start of the war, they've declared that they've done everything as retaliation and self defence and at the time, I had some sympathy with that view.

They also though talked about wanting to get things done through diplomacy and if they don't turn up to this second round - which right now is looking highly unlikely, then they've shot themselves in the foot big time - they know who they're dealing with in Trump and all of his 'madness' and as such, they should be able to work their way around such 'stuff' - simply throwing their toys out of the pram to me simply shows that in reality, maybe they're not interested in diplomacy at all and they're as bad as Trump and as such, both sides deserve each other - Trump in a continuous war which he can't get out of and Iran in their total destruction - shame on both of them!!

As shared in the title, simply getting stuff off my chest and hope that I'm wrong and hoping that common sense and peace will prevail

So Trump has announced a second meeting starting tomorrow evening is Islamabad - those reporters at Al Jazeera are good eh!

So will be interesting to see how the market reacts tomorrow - guessing the negative of closing the Strait of Hormuz may now be negated by the second meeting on Monday evening - guess of course we'll soon see and GLA

Just seen this on my below message - can you believe they've **** the first part of P a k I s t a n - what on earth and beggars belief!!!!

hi all,

hope you're very well and enjoying the weekend.

just thought i'd drop a copy below of an article on al jazeera iran 'live updates' - certainly looks like ****stan is getting ready for the second round of negotiations - wouldn't surprise me in they take place either tomorrow or tuesday and just for ref: by the way, have found the live page on al jazeera to be the best out there right now for timely information on what's going on

****stan: extensive preparations underway ahead of potential new talks

by kamal hyder

reporting from islamabad, ****stan

all signs indicate the second round of talks is likely to take place, despite the tough rhetoric coming out of tehran and washington.

we know at least two major hotels – including the serena, which hosted the talks last time – have been told they should ask their guests to leave. security arrangements are also in place. after the two us c17 globemasters landed, the road from the airport to the red zone was closed temporarily.

the district administration has also issued a statement saying all heavy transport and public buses should be restricted in the capital city. so everything indicates the talks will take place in islamabad before friday and we can see the preparations, the ground work being done right now in order to make those talks possible.

****stan will be employing almost 20,000 security forces personnel, including the police from punjab province, the paramilitary rangers forces, the islamabad police and the military.

all of these will provide security for the capital during the second round of talks.

Hi both,

It looks like you're both right - about 8 vessels have been allowed to go through in the last couple of hours, although the IRGC are saying that this was a piece of 'goodwill' and because assuming that they were so far through, that they couldn't turn around etc etc.

From then though, it does look like it's pretty much closed, with a number of tankers etc unfortunately turning around and returning to their previous port.

Guess, can only hope that Trump removes their blockade, although really not sure that he will do that - can only hope eh

Hi all,

Hope you're very well and just thought I'd share below - I realise that many of you may already know the details, but just in case you didn't, then here goes:

So the Obama deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) and signed off by the US; UK; Germany; France; Russia and China included:

1. Iran agreed to dismantle most of its nuclear programme, including reducing its centrifuge count by two thirds and eliminating 98% of its enriched Uranium stockpile

2. For 15 years, Iran was restricted to enriching Uranium only up to 3.67%, a level suitable for civilian energy generation and far below the 90% required for a nuclear weapon

3. The International Atomic Agency was granted 24/7 access to all nuclear sites to verify and during the time it remained in place and until Trump withdrew the US in 2018, they had stuck to the deal as above

Now I only share the above, as I was interested enough this morning to take a look.

My Q is really simple - can anyone see how Trump can get a better deal than above, which would have run until 2030 without Trump's interference in 2018 - I certainly cannot!

Hi Frank6,

It's a fine balance between what people will pay and simply ending up with empty seats on the plane - whilst you could probably suggest such a scenario before the war, clearly increases in fuel at the pump etc, will certainly make people feel poorer in the coming months and if prices rise too high, people will simply remain at home or within their country of residence

Hi Birdsong,

Hope you're very well and totally agree with your thinking.

The US market is simply 'desperate' for all and any news that may point to an offramp for Trump and I strongly believe that it simply isn't there - Reuters are reporting this afternoon that the mistrust is so bad, that there is no way that they can do a full deal and announce an end to the war - indeed, Iran is looking for a 60 day extension to discuss further the nuclear scenario which they are very unlikely to relinquish in any state or form.

So unless Trump wants egg on his face and total humiliation that he couldn't even get a better deal from the Iranians than what Obama got back in 2015, then you have to believe that he won't grant such an extension which likely means things will fall apart in the coming days.

Clearly just my thinking

Hi breakofdawn,

Hope you're very well and many thanks for sharing. The issue though still stands that Iran is refusing to give up its nuclear ambitions and to get somewhere sensible, could take months and of course Trump won't be able to 'cope' with months.

According to Reuters, the Iranians are asking for a 60 day extension to discuss the nuclear issue etc - well, they've had loads of time last year when ultimately Trump and Israel attacked the nuclear sites and even before that, so you have to think what will change and the answer is - nothing

Have to say that if they go down the line of a 60 day extension, that Trump would have total egg on his face and look an even bigger idiot than he is right now and as such, simply can't see such an extension happening.

Still feel strongly that this mess has much further to go and of course, if so, then the impact of fuel shortages etc etc will become a reality!

Clearly just my thinking

Hi Jaynemchand,

Hope you're very well and thanks for sharing.

That said, the IRGC have always claimed that the Strait of Hormuz is open - it's of course only when ships try, do they either get turned away, or of course, they are registered to the 'enemy', which pretty much covers most of the world and then they're declared as not able to pass.

Hi all,

If you've not seen Trump's most recent 'rant and ramblings', then please take a look at the link from Reuters as below.

So you have to think that this pretty much 'blows up' any further ceasefire negotiations and indeed any ceasefire full stop.

He's also threatening 'hell' again if Iran fires upon their ships, which you have to think is very likely - BUT, even more likely is that Iran will threaten and likely carry out further strikes on the Gulf States and their infrastructure because let's be honest, they're an easy target and it's this fact that Trump simply doesn't 'get' - they may well go up against the US Navy, but they have choices and if it was me, I'd go back to hitting the Gulf States all over again

Finally, Iran has made it very clear about the situation of mistrust and why yesterday's negotiations ultimately collapsed with the US - hmmm - this helps doesn't it NOT!

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-us-start-blockading-strait-hormuz-2026-04-12/

Hi all,

If you've not seen Trump's most recent 'rant and ramblings', then please take a look at the link from Reuters as below.

So you have to think that this pretty much 'blows up' any further ceasefire negotiations and indeed any ceasefire full stop.

He's also threatening 'hell' again if Iran fires upon their ships, which you have to think is very likely - BUT, even more likely is that Iran will threaten and likely carry out further strikes on the Gulf States and their infrastructure because let's be honest, they're an easy target and it's this fact that Trump simply doesn't 'get' - they may well go up against the US Navy, but they have choices and if it was me, I'd go back to hitting the Gulf States all over again

Finally, Iran has made it very clear about the situation of mistrust and why yesterday's negotiations ultimately collapsed with the US - hmmm - this helps doesn't it NOT!

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-us-start-blockading-strait-hormuz-2026-04-12/

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well.

Just thought I'd share a link to an article from Reuters that has just been published.

I've always struggled with the ramblings and antics of Trump during this whole sorry saga, but I struggle even more with these 'mad rantings' of Trump as included in the article of this afternoon and looks as though tomorrow might not even happen

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-shows-strain-ahead-talks-with-oil-flows-squeezed-2026-04-10/

Hi all,

Just wanted to share the below link to a Reuters report just published and it doesn't read well for tomorrow - if indeed tomorrow even starts

Please take a read and simply cannot believe Trump with his 'mad rantings yet again'

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-shows-strain-ahead-talks-with-oil-flows-squeezed-2026-04-10/

I'm similar in terms of waiting, although I really do believe that the Iran saga has a ways to go yet and as such, will pressure all stocks to the downside. For me, this weekend is interesting - so Trump believes that his 15 point plan is pretty much in the bag with Iran. Iran on the other hand with its 10 point plan, appears very different and indeed when Trump got a copy of the 'published' 10 point plan yesterday, he binned it because it was so far away from his 'private chats' with whomever in the Iranian government (hmmmm)! - so my understanding is that Iran will start off negotiations this Saturday using their 10 point plan as the starting point - can you imagine Vance and Trump's face when they see that it's exactly the one he binned yesterday and as such, I truly believe that this weekend will see the ceasefire well and truly over!

Clearly just my thinking and GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well albeit in this 'crazy world'!

So just thought I'd share ref this weekend's ceasefire talks.

So the US has a 15 point plan which Trump believes is pretty much signed off by the Iranians. Iran has a 10 point plan, which when Trump was shown it yesterday, he said it was 'way away' from the private talks he had had , with whomever he had had talks with (hmmm), and as such, he put it straight into the bin according to Vance.

So guess what's interesting about Saturday and when they start their negotiations is that if Iran use their 10 point plan, which I believe is what they intend to use as their starting point, then you have to think that the Americans will be somewhat 'blown away', as it's clearly nowhere near to what they may be expecting.

From my perspective, I'm certainly expecting some fireworks and for me, it will be the time that the talks collapse and we're back to ground zero so to speak............

Clearly only my thinking and GLA

Hi all,

Hope everyone has had a brilliant Easter and have to say that Trump's colourful words simply show that it is him who is losing the plot and straining under the pressure - ALL of which he has caused of course!

Just sharing this bit, as you may not have seen it today - Italy has started rationing jet fuel at 4 of its airports and please see below:

https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-airport-jet-fuel-restriction/

Secondly and undoubtedly much more important for the next 48 hours - so if we assume that Trump goes through with his nonsense on Tuesday and Iran retaliates as they've suggested too and assuming that they have the missiles and drones to do so ref the Gulf countries, then of course many oil production facilities could be knocked out of production and this could last for many months if not years. The biggest outcome of this though, would be that the relevant oil producers would declare Force Majeure on all contracts and as such, all and any hedging will then immediately be null and void! Scarey eh and as such, let's hope they both step away from the brink...........