Member Info for MikeS02

Hi all,

Just seen this on Reuters so thought I'd share - need to keep close to the news

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airbus-issues-major-a320-recall-after-flight-control-incident-2025-11-28/

Hi all,

Let me start by saying that I'm not an Easyjet investor, but have shares in Tui and as such, will drop in from time to time to all of the airline stocks etc and look at commentary.

The results are good/strong, BUT the one thing that certainly struck me today, was how 'dismissive' the presentation was of shareholders - in fact you had to go to the Appendix to see any mention at all about the dividend payment, which to me, isn't a great sign and there was simply no mention of shareholders at all in the main body of the presentation.

So in the presentation, they had all the time in the world to talk about shareholders; talk about shareholders sharing in future progress; talk about a new shareholder distribution programme and even if that was next year, but absolutely nothing.

Others have shared this previously, but to me, this was an 'accountant's' presentation and in these days, not sure it cuts the mustard so to speak

Clearly just my thinking, but thought I'd share

What's NOT helping us, is that the MDAX has just gone into correction territory!

Hi Trevlad,

Lovely to hear from you and great that you've posted

So with regards buy backs, you're right - the Company announces the amount of money they will spend on a buy back - let's say 100 million euros and also declare the time they think it will take to spend that money in the open market - let's say over six months, although to be honest, the timing is pretty arbitrary, as of course they'll continue to spend until they've bought back 100 million euros worth of shares. All companies who arrange buybacks MUST buy through the open markets and at the relevant prices quoted to everyone else - it's the law.

Typically when a Company announces a buy back, they will also state what their intentions are with regards the shares bought back - the vast majority of companies cancel the shares, but some do simply squirrel them away into a 'treasury account', where the company can then determine what to do with them next.

The best option is usually the former, ie to cancel them, because the thinking is, is that with fewer stocks available to buy etc, that there's an implicit rationale that future SP's will increase.

There's lots of views on buybacks and whether they truly do increase the SP over time, as of course lots and lots of things can affect the SP - I've seen some that have and others where the SP still dwindles.

For myself, I'm a Dividend person, as cash in my pocket is great, thank you very much. But, as I say, others prefer Buybacks and to be honest, both sides can turn out positive over time.

Just as a final piece of information - so if a 100 million buyback was announced and they bought back at the current SP of 7.75 and cancelled all of them, then nearly 13 million shares would be cancelled and this would then leave the number of shares in circulation of 494 million instead of the current 507 million shares and just as a flavour - clearly the SP wouldn't stay static during the full buyback, but as I say, it gives a flavour of what could happen.

So hope this helps and best

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well.

Like others, I'm certainly 'grateful' for any information that helps our SP and it certainly has done so!

And, the information is terrific and just as expected!

So we still have quite a bit to look forward to on the 10th:

1. Net Profit, which will be 'superb' and certainly ahead of estimates - I'm thinking c650 million

2. Brilliant additional cash from our JV dividends, which for me will be c250 million and what's even better, is that the dividends are coming from those areas showing brilliant growth, ie hotels and cruises - for us, couldn't be better

So if you add the above together, you're talking 1 year's 'cash' in the region of c900 million euros - WOW and no doubts at all that these figures will go down very well on the day and beyond

3. FY2026 numbers that the BOD will commit too and again, have to think that these will be strong as can't see any reason why they wouldn't be

4. And of course, the 'biggie' - the new Dividend Policy - now of course, I could see the BOD fully banking the c900 million in cash, why shouldn't they and indeed it's what my mind is saying they will do. My heart on the other hand, is of course hoping that they announce a dividend for FY25 payable just after the AGM in early February 2026 - and to be honest, for me it's actually not about the money per se, although of course, I won't run away from free money and I truly believe that as shareholders and indeed other LTH of the stock, dare I say we deserve it - it's actually what such a move will do for our SP - so the policy of previous dividend payments from Tui is that upon announcing a divi, it gives until the day before the AGM, the ability for businesses and individuals to buy shares that then have the divi payment attached - come AGM, this becomes the divi ex payment date - as you can see, if indeed they do pay a FY25 divi and especially if it's a good one, then of course demand for our shares will be high right through to AGM day!

Alternatively of course, they could simply say that the divi policy goes live for FY2026 and payable early in 2027, whilst they could then give a sweetner in the form of a buyback - in German law, companies can buy back a max of 10% of their shares each year and just for ref

So as I say, lots to look forward to on the 10th and on the run up to then, looking for further SP increases accordingly

GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well.

Simply find it really surprising that they announce 'partial results', as it simply doesn't give the full picture - also they state 'preliminary' and whilst I'm sure these two results will pretty much be what they publish in a month's time, again, why not wait?

Guessing that the BOD were excited to share and if so, then of course great, but again, doesn't share net profit; shareholder return strategy etc etc.

So still very much looking forward to the 10th December when we see the whole picture, which will undoubtedly be great and by then, hopefully the SP will be moving on upwards and upwards!

GLA and see you on the 10th

Hi unhooked,

Yes totally agree.

What I've learned in recent months is that the big players have simply tied up the whole investment world - of course it may always have been this case, but have to say that in 15 years of trading, it's only recently that the shorters and big players own and trade everything - if you're not on their side, rest assured you're typically screwed!

Just thought I'd share and best

Hi Sanyo86,

Hope you're very well.

The drop to 7.25 actually happened really quickly this morning at around 8.30am and well before the comms ref the bond repayment.

Also, whilst indeed any repayments are a good thing, this one is a relatively small repayment at just over 100m euros, although of course every little helps!!

Can only think that a big player has cashed in a decent quantity of shares or left totally OR and I'm hoping for this one, that one of our short sellers decided to cash in - either way we'll know in a few days when they publish the change

As many have commented on here, we seem to be in a bit of a 'doom loop' right now which can test the patience of the best of us and certainly hugely disappointing!

All I do know and to be honest, it's the main thing keeping me invested here, is that the December 10th results will be absolutely 'stellar' - have no doubts whatsoever that with net profit likely at c650m; dividend payments from our JV likely close to 250m and so giving a total of 'cash' of c900m is and will be a truly stellar performance and 'rewarded' on the day - add on top of that, the new dividend policy and right now I'm simply hoping and believing that this is around the bottom of this cycle and we get some good momentum in the coming weeks and into our results day

Hope this helps and GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

Just a quick message to share that our CEO bought 77k's worth of stock on the 2nd October and as per the link below.

Our FD also bought some on the 2nd October, but a much more modest 10k's worth

Last two weeks have been tough and as mas has shared , there's been a small uptick in shorters, which undoubtedly has put a bit of a damper on our SP - that said and as shared previously, there will be a time when shorters will rue the day they have shorted our stock and that day is coming on the 10th December 2025 when we announce our FY results; Divi policy; loads of net profit etc etc

GLA and have a terrific weekend

https://www.tuigroup.com/en/investors/financial-news/2025-10-02-tui-ag-helmut-reiner-sebastian-ebel-buy

Hi Clank,

Hope you're very well.

As you shared, today's results are clearly strong and interestingly, I was surprised at how detailed this pre-close statement was - if you look at previous years, they give a few top lines and that's that.

What I like in the statement and indeed in the one in early August, is that it's clear that the BOD are increasingly confident in their business model and they want to communicate that accordingly - confidence is 'oozing through', which is great and actually we're now starting to clearly differentiate ourselves against pure flight players and even other holiday companies in that we own many hotels directly and through JV's and off course that's true of cruises too and again, what's great is how well these are doing and will continue to do into 2026 - also hotels and cruises represent 80% of EBIT and profit and so again, great that these are firing on all cylinders and certainly starting to differentiate us from our competitors.

We now have our FY25 results to look forward to - brilliant net profit ahead of forecast; JV dividends of around 200 million euros and of course our new dividend policy - what's not to like!!??

Very happy Chappy and GLA

Hi mas,

To be fair, Tui has had this element in it's 'arsenal' for about 3 years now - asking at each AGM for authority and each time they make it quite clear that any shares used will be for the purposes of investments and nothing more - so based on that, they've always had it passed and for me, it makes absolutely the right call - ie, it give an alternative route to adding to debt and it's a clever way for the Company to have access to funds and to use to invest just as they have down in Oman.

Best and take care and GLA

PS - Finally - see that a shorter has just closed its position today ahead of tomorrow, so hopefully that bodes well - still have 4.79% shorting, but certainly moving in the right direction

Hi all,

Just in case you haven't seen this one - for me, all good as it's an investment for the future

Hope it helps and GLA

https://cdn.sanity.io/files/b6xulh2p/production/ebc2c320a35276d45dabfb22608216dc60eff6e4.pdf

Hi mas,

Great to hear from you and hope you and the family are very well - just back from a holiday in Rutland Water, so very relaxed etc.

I certainly don't disagree with regards the economic situation etc and of course, we'll need to see how things progress, BUT October and through to the end of December always boosts the SP of ourselves and other Tourism and flight companies simply because of the fact that everyone has banked their Summer profits and it's absolutely the time that the big players load up on our shares etc and until there is an 'outcry' of a recession, which right now there isn't any, then the usual state of play will come about, in my opinion.

As for the results - they will be 'stellar' as shared and as such and just like yourself and all other LT holders of our stock, I'm actually looking forward to seeing how things pan out through to December - really hoping that next Tuesday starts us off well and then onwards and upwards and GLA

Hi Greylady,

Afraid I totally disagree with your thoughts and for the following reasons:

1. We're getting in to the 'Golden Quarter' for Tourism/Flight shares - October through to the end of December are typically 'excellent' months for our shares as of course we've banked the Summer profits etc and big players always stock up during this period which gives us and all the others a bounce - last year from mid October and through to the day before results day resulted in a 30% increase on the SP in September 2024 - remember that this time last year, our SP was only 5.74 euros!

2. We have a pre-close trading update next Tuesday, 23rd September which will validate Tui's excellent 2025 performance and again, should provide us with a nice uplift into next week

3. Finally, we have LOADS to shout about on the FY 2025 results day in December, including forecast busting net profit, which I believe will be in excess of 650 million euros; a return to pre-pandemic dividends from JV partners which will amount to at least 200 million euros and of course launching our new dividend policy, which will undoubtedly attract big players into our stock.

Whilst I know that you are a genuine investor and often share really good and informative commentary, right now there is simply no way that I would sell up and come back to the stock in March 2026 - I'm certainly expecting the SP to be in excess of £10 by results day in December and if the above plays out which I strongly believe that it will, that it will be quite a bit in excess of this figure

Clearly only time will tell and GLA

Xhita,

I'm calling you out!

You've supposedly spent a fortune on Jet2 shares and also a fortune on EZJ shares and I simply don't believe you.

You say you work in hospitality and if so, you certainly won't be paid a fortune, which you certainly would have to have to have made all of your so called share purchases across Jet2 and EZJ in recent weeks and according to your posts - I'd advise anyone to track back on Xhita's so called share purchases.

Have no idea what you're trying to do - a ramper maybe - but what you're doing is pretty shameless and most certainly doesn't tie up!

Hi all,

Hope you're very well and as some have commented about the SP and especially yesterday, thought I'd drop the 'actuals' and hope it helps - also commenting on a single day's movement seems a little futile to me, as of course longer trends tend to show what investors 'really think' about the stock.

So here goes:

Tui - 1 week -4.3%; Current month +9.9%; 3 months +17.2% and 6 months +25.0%

Easyjet - 1 week -4.1%; Current month -0.8%; 3 months -14.2% and 6 months -3.1%

IAG - 1 week -3.2%; Current month +0.4%; 3 months +14.8% and 6 months +8.5%

Wizz - 1 week -2.6%; Current month +7.8%; 3 months -14.7% and 6 months -18.7%

Jet2 - 1week -1.2%; Current month +0.1%; 3 months -10.6% and 6 months +15.9%

So I think the numbers speak for themselves and show us in a really strong place.

Of course, we know that things can change and we also know that September can be the weakest month of the year for stocks and so we may see more weakness, although based on the above, if we do, then likely the rest of our competitors will do so too. That said, last year in the middle of September onwards, our sector did well with institutional investors realigning their portfolios coming out of Summer and helping driving our sector accordingly and knowing that the sector had banked it's 'Christmas/Golden Quarter' profits and of course this is now largely true for 2025 too and so we'll see.

Finally and if indeed September turns out weaker than we'd like, we of course have our pre close statement to look forward to on the 23rd September which undoubtedly will provide more good news!

Hope this helps and GLA

Hi email,

Brilliant stuff and huge thanks for sharing - really interesting and certainly in line with our thinking.

As a final share, the CEO, Sebastian Ebel shared something similar back in Spring, when he said that this year would in effect be the final year of getting the balance sheet in order - which it is doing and then from 2026, further investments, including possible acquisitions could be on the agenda.

So sounds like everyone is on the same page so to speak and certainly positive

Best regards and GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're very well and just to add a little in to the mix.

So supposedly Putin is not looking for a ceasefire anymore - he's simply looking for a peace deal and let's hope that the meeting on Monday can progress such a deal quickly and effectively as others have mentioned

Hi email,

So tonight the shorts closed at 6.89% or approx 35 million shares, so another small cash in of 0.1% vs last night, but hey, clearly adding to the upward momentum.

So this is the third straight day, where we've finished the end of the day at the top of the SP for that particular day - generally a strong indicator of strength in the SP, ie today closing at 9.29%

I understand that the shorters will want to drip feed their stock in, as of course a big purchase/cash out will drive the SP even higher and quicker and make for an even bigger loss for the shorters.

When I was checking the opening SP of a couple off shorters who opened positions about 6 weeks ago, it was 7.40 euros, so you can imagine the 'red' that is on their balance sheets right now.

Continue to drip feed and we should have further nice rises to come and at some point, the pain will likely get too much and they'll capitulate and we'll see an even higher uptick - all predicated of course by a supportive German and US market, which right now, we have. A brilliant week for us and hope everyone has a brilliant weekend and enjoy

GLA

Hi email,

Many thanks for sharing and hope you're very well.

Totally agree with your sentiment and they will certainly have 'lots of extra cash yr on yr' come their full year results mid December - remember that they will be getting 170million MINIMUM from their cruise section as an end of year dividend direct to their net profit and also a MINIMUM of 30% of profit from their JV hotels and resorts - all of which has been flagged in the Half Year and Q3 results too, but interestingly, not being added to analyst forecasts as assuming it's not guaranteed, although clearly for the Company and us, it is guaranteed!!

So just looking at the latest forecasts for FY25 and net profit - it's predicted to be 600million vs 507million last year - I believe it will be in excess of 650million 'easily' and hence my comment about 'lots of cash' coming in

Take care and best and GLA