Member Info for Madpunter

16:37 - 06/08 Sell 12500000 0.28p £35,500.00
16:33 - 08/08 Sell 11000000 0.29p £31,955.00
16:17 - 06/08 Buy 8000000 0.30p £24,000.00
13:54 - 08/08 Buy 7961165 0.31p £24,600.00
08:00 - 03/08 Buy 7500000 0.29p £21,750.00
16:37 - 07/08 Sell 7500000 0.29p £21,750.00
10:25 - 06/08 Buy 7222382 0.28p £20,006.00
10:39 - 06/08 Buy 6946000 0.29p £20,004.48
13:24 - 06/08 Buy 6804761 0.29p £20,006.00
09:29 - 07/08 Buy 6532786 0.31p £19,925.00

The 12.5m after hours reported trade @ 0.284p on the 6th August, could also be a buy as there were more than enough sells in the 0.275p range. The 7.5m sell @ 0.29p yesterday was probably a trader who had hoped for a quick profit, after buying the same amount for the same price on the 3rd August ( barchart was showing a possible bounce ). Therefore, IMHO there's only more accumulating by the II and no chunky sells.

There were more than 12.9m shares sold @ 0.285p, therefore IMHO the 11m @ 0.29p late reported trade is a buy. Will the II who's accumulating go over the 5% threshold requiring a RNS or stay incognito?

bedex - The MM's can sell up to 10% legally to create a market, it's called 'Naked Shorting' and the cancelled trades are a share swop IMHO. We also have an II increasing their holding to 4.4%.

SILAS242 - My post earlier today nicely dovetails with yours IMHO.

dubz - I have copied my post from Monday below :-
ODR - I've copied Matteh's post from 13:07 today :-
INSTITUTIONAL HOLDERS
% Shares Owned: 4.40%
# of Holders: 1
Total Shares Held: 694,634,212
3 Mo. Net Change: 66,052,442
# New Positions: 0
# Closed Positions: 0
# Increased Positions: 1
# Reduced Positions: 0
# Net Buyers: 1
I asked earlier to this post if anyone was a subscriber to Reuters or Morning Star, to see if the II was still accumulating. As you can see it's not fanciful that the Ii is accumulating, it's happening.
CODEFRED - I posted my thoughts on a possible share swop in May and June as an explanation of the cancelled trades. Then on 11th June I posted about the magic number of 1,858,407, which would indicate the last of the II shares bought in the PB (331,858,407 shares for £1.5m). Within minutes of my post a cancelled trade for 3,305,917 pops up at 11:58, giving a new magic number. Then on 15th June a cancelled trade of 402,573, after which the cancelled trades have virtually disappeared. There was also a cancelled trade of $5.7m for 70k shares on the 10th May for ExxonMobil, which would give a very good quick profit for the II, if my assumptions are correct. Now we are seeing some cancelled trades again at the same time as some large buys and an increase in the II holding.The II could be looking to complete the reporting of the swop before the 19th August and before the 5% threshold is reached. All pure speculation apart from the fact that an II has increased their holding to 4.4%, and the fact that a secret II is willing to fund Niko. Why would they want to remain secret? Maybe they are accumulating shares and negotiating funding for a JV or buyout of Block 12. DYOR.
If the cancelled trades are not a share swop, then what are they? If it was share manipulation by the MM's, why would they need to cancel, as they can 'naked short' up to 10% legally to create a market. They could then buy back later when the price is lower and make a profit. If anyone else was selling without funds resulting in cancelled trades. they wouldn't be able to keep repeating and if it was an attempt at share manipulation (other than MM's creating a market) would result in prison, especially when it was so easily observed.

Mole - The numbers add up if it is a share swop and the new II has been accumulating at the same time.

LEO38 - End of the lock in period.

T45 and Dino flowed 270 bbls/d and 315 bbls/d initially.
Ud-2 flowed 150,000 scf/d from an old soviet era poorly cemented well ( a new well with modern fracking should flow considerably more IMHO ).
T39 flowed naturally @ 250 bbls/d of oil and 350,000 scf/d of wet gas from only a 3mm aperture, without fracking.
The lower zones 19 and below are not in the $12/bbl cost. If the amount recoverable for the oil and gas doubles, then $6/bbl is possible.
A secret II is funding Niko.
An II has increased their holding to 4.40%.
YA is being paid in cash, so no more share dilution.
1000 bbls/d to be produced by the end of the year.

ODR - I've copied Matteh's post from 13:07 today :-
INSTITUTIONAL HOLDERS
% Shares Owned: 4.40%
# of Holders: 1
Total Shares Held: 694,634,212
3 Mo. Net Change: 66,052,442
# New Positions: 0
# Closed Positions: 0
# Increased Positions: 1
# Reduced Positions: 0
# Net Buyers: 1
I asked earlier to this post if anyone was a subscriber to Reuters or Morning Star, to see if the II was still accumulating. As you can see it's not fanciful that the Ii is accumulating, it's happening.
CODEFRED - I posted my thoughts on a possible share swop in May and June as an explanation of the cancelled trades. Then on 11th June I posted about the magic number of 1,858,407, which would indicate the last of the II shares bought in the PB (331,858,407 shares for £1.5m). Within minutes of my post a cancelled trade for 3,305,917 pops up at 11:58, giving a new magic number. Then on 15th June a cancelled trade of 402,573, after which the cancelled trades have virtually disappeared. There was also a cancelled trade of $5.7m for 70k shares on the 10th May for ExxonMobil, which would give a very good quick profit for the II, if my assumptions are correct. Now we are seeing some cancelled trades again at the same time as some large buys and an increase in the II holding.The II could be looking to complete the reporting of the swop before the 19th August and before the 5% threshold is reached. All pure speculation apart from the fact that an II has increased their holding to 4.4%, and the fact that a secret II is willing to fund Niko. Why would they want to remain secret? Maybe they are accumulating shares and negotiating funding for a JV or buyout of Block 12. DYOR.

If the buys over 5m shares (big if), then 31,870,705 could have been added by the II today.

SN = 10.8%
ZM = 6.6%
II = 4.4%
Total = 21.8%

OneDayRodney - IMHO they've already offloaded through a share swop to another II who has increased their holding to 4.4%.

Matteh87 - Thanks. Another 94,722,847 to reach the 5% threshold requiring an RNS.

Mole - Interesting observation about the II's lock in period. I wonder if anyone on here has a subscription to Reuters or Morning Star to see if the II is still increasing their holding?

The cost per barrel is very is very cheap @ $12, but this is based upon a CPR that doesn't include zone 19 or deeper. Therefore, if the amount of recoverable oil doubles and the deeper zones don't need fracking or pumping, the price may finish around $6/bbl. The field development plan could prove very interesting. I just hope the RNS highlights the very low cost in the title.

10:32 5m sell @ 0.29 with the bid @ 0.29 and the ask @ 0.30.
10:42 5m buy shown at the mid price @ 0.295 with the same spread.
11:27 5.08m buy shown at the mid price @ 0.295 with the same spread.
14:33 201k sell despite being at the mid price @ 0.29 with the bid @ 0.28 and the ask @ 0.30.

Tsbs - If an offer to buy Block 12 came from say ExxonMobil, then FRR could pay the whole amount. What would happen if having received the offer, the Georgian Government try for arbitration to reduce the amount of recoverable tax for exploration? A delay may force FRR to issue equity. It is just an insurance policy to keep the option of equity open IMHO.

Tsbs - Then why did YA sign a new deal that is more beneficial for FRR than the old deal? Why did an II want to fund the drilling of Niko instead of FRR having to use PB? Do you not think that with the historical evidence of declining flow rates, they would not want proof the new fracking had cured the problem?

Possible flow rates by the end of the year.
T45 - 270 bbls/d less 10%, but add 20 bbls/d for zone 9 = 263 bbls/d. Add 50% for pumping = 394 bbls/d.
Dino2 - 315 bbls/d less 10%, but add 25 bbls/d for zone 9 = 308 bbls/d. Add 50% for pumping = 462 bbls/d.
T39 conservative 250 bbls/d.
Zone 9 wells 100 bbls/d.
Total 1206 bbls/d without the possible addition of zone 13 and without Niko.
If the rates for T45 and Dino had dropped significantly, then I don't think that YA would have agreed to be paid in cash and I don't think that an II would have funded Niko.