Member Info for Madpunter

Tsbs - If you read Tot's post from ii that is copied below plus the article in the link, then it looks likely that one of the hedge funds involved with Exxon were funding Niko. I think as per my post on 25th May, the funding was announced to allay fears of a placement and to allow time for DD. 'Were funding,' as IMHO the deal is not far away and Niko will not require drilling by FRR.

Enjoying this thread with some great contributions leading to ‘group think’, but could I just throw one more thought into the mix? According to this article:https://postanalyst.com/2018/08/08/hedge-funds-now-own-54-of-exxon-mobil-corporation-xom/ 9 three major hedge funds now own a very significant percentage of Exxon’s stock. This will give them ready access to one to one discussions with management.

It therefore occurs to me that one of these funds might be front running the show for Exxon. Doing it that way means that they won’t have to make any filings to the SEC, with the hedge fund just getting a fee for services rendered and a back to back deal to ensure that it’s stake gets transferred to Exxon when key milestones have been met. If so we shouldn’t have to wait long for a revised agreement to be announced.

All in my very humble opinion of course.

Tot

My post fro the 25th May, about Niko :-
Why the long gap in the drilling?
1) Maybe the drilling and fracking team aren't available until November.
2) Maybe to tie in with the drilling for 2019 to reduce costs.
3) Maybe to allow time for a takeover and it has only been announced to allay fears over funding with a placement.
The third option would explain the secrecy of who is funding the well.
Option 3) could easily be arranged with a hedge fund, if Tot's assumptions are right about their influence with Exxon.

Just posted this interesting thought regarding Exxon and hedge funds :-
Enjoying this thread with some great contributions leading to ‘group think’, but could I just throw one more thought into the mix? According to this article:https://postanalyst.com/2018/08/08/hedge-funds-now-own-54-of-exxon-mobil-corporation-xom/ 1 three major hedge funds now own a very significant percentage of Exxon’s stock. This will give them ready access to one to one discussions with management.

It therefore occurs to me that one of these funds might be front running the show for Exxon. Doing it that way means that they won’t have to make any filings to the SEC, with the hedge fund just getting a fee for services rendered and a back to back deal to ensure that it’s stake get’s transferred to Exxon when key milestones have been met. If so we shouldn’t have to wait long for a revised agreement to be announced.

All in my very humble opinion of course.
Tot.

Pecten11 - If the majors wait for a CPR after they have analysed the data, then with the interim accounts due at the end of the month, they risk competition, as flow rates could be ascertained from recent revenue.

MisterPositive - Devex's recent post on ii seems to back my view that a CPR is not required. I've copied the relevant part below :-
This really does feel like the data set that you would need for a CPR. But the “major” experts probably won’t need to wait for a revised CPR - at least initially. Their technical experts will be perfectly able to interpret the results in the same way as a Petroleum Consultancy, so the order of getting things done might be very difficult to predict.

This is when a someone independent of the company verifies the resources. IMHO FRR don't require one as the two majors have been independently verifying the resources from the seismic data and EWT's. FRR have indicated 18 billion bbls of oil and 202TCF of gas, whereas the CPR states 10.225 billion of oil (1.673 recoverable) and 12.9 of gas (9 recoverable). The majors will be filling in the gaps between the two figures for both oil and gas. The recoverable percentage for the oil is likely to increase, as the lower zones have higher pressure and wet gas to aid the flow. If the recovery rate from the gas is similar to those in the CPR, then around 138TCF will be recoverable. Typical takeover rates are $1bn per TCF, but this is highly unlikely. As this is such a very large asset IMHO, this is why two majors are involved, and depending upon whether it's a JV, a farmout or sale of Block 12, my parameters are $2bn to $20bn ( which would be around 10% of typical TCF takeover figures, and FRR is onshore with very low costs). Very strong buy, but DYOR.

The link below might be of interest :-
http://gekengineering.com/Downloads/Free_Downloads/Production_Choke_Basics.pdf

mcadder - The choke size was probably increased to 6/64" (decreased bore) due to the flaring of the gas, as there's no infrastructure in place. When the infrastructure is in place, then the bore could be increased (depending upon safety etc), with over 4,000 bbls/d possible(529 @ 8/64" = 8 x 529 at full bore, but the equation is not linear). In normal circumstances this wouldn't be done as the pressure and flow rate could drop significantly, resulting in having to shut the well to allow recharge. However, as FRR intend to comingle with zones 9, 14 and 15, after equalizing the pressures, the higher zones could be fracked while zone 19 is plugged and recharged. This would also give an earlier payback on the well. Lots of permutations possible, but Dustin will know what is the best coarse of action with the data available.

MisterPositive - The majors wouldn't want the flow rates released early because it might attract interest from competitors, not to keep the share price from rising. If it was one major, then the lower share price could be of significance due to the possibility of a hostile takeover. However, with two majors involved; 17.4% held by SN and ZM; and plenty of PI's with large holdings, then the possibility diminishes.

Due IMHO. I was typing this earlier, when a few sells appeared and the position changed. One MM has been 0.03p to 0.04p below the rest on the ask, keeping the price down (currently 0.03p). There have also been lots of buys of multiples of 100k shares which look like spread bets IMHO. The retrace after the 80% rise is overdone and next rise is soon IMHO. Very strong buy, but DYOR.

It bounced off the the support, so will it bounce of the resistance?
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/FRR.LS/cheat-sheet
Rise, consolidation and now set for another rise IMHO. Risky to trade IMHO, as a deal could come at anytime.

JohnnyB.Goode in the filter pool. Goodbye, your filtered!

Mole - If my theory was right about a share swop with the II and ExxonMobil in May. Assuming the MM's were allowed to release the swop as cancelled trades a bit at a time to allow an orderly market, then after the end of the lock-in period they wouldn't need cancelling and the cancelled trades would stop. This might explain why Zaza bought just before, as he wouldn't have been allowed after, despite a more favourable price. Talking with a major is one thing, but if they had then acquired shares in a swop, it would be an indication of intent. The cancelled trade for $5.7m for 70k Exxon shares was on the 10th May and Zaza bought on the 8th May.

The only placing relevant to FRR IMHO is the placing of numpties in the ever growing filter pool. trader250 your filtered, goodbye!

If the post by MisterPositive @ 15:14 is read prior to the first post of this thread, IMHO he mentions consolidation in relation to the trading. The price is in a consolidation phase before an upwards move to 1p. Hence, 'consolidation is always healthy', as it forms stronger support for the share price.

I quite often have links etc already copied ready to paste before I start to reply. Usually ahead of myself, unfortunately applies to my trading as well, where I buy too early and too strong, not allowing enough for top ups to lower my average.

FiXXeR - I don't like all the RE's. As for trading FRR, IMHO it will rise to 1.2 and possibly 3.6 on the volume created by the MM's to fill large orders for II's, plus speculation by PI's. A 151m trade has just gone through from yesterday. IMHO any JV, farmout or sale of Block 12 could be very much higher. BP bought an asset with 4.36 billion bbls of oil with costs well under $50/bbl for $10.5bn. FRR has 18 billion bbls (10.225 billion bbls in the CPR) with costs under $12/bbl (that was before zone 19 which will drop it considerably more). Then there's the gas, 202TCF (12.9TCF, with 70% recoverable in the CPR). It's the same Maykop as in Azerbaijan, same Kura basin, but onshore and not as deep. If the majors in the data room want the gas, then typical prices are $1bn per TCF. Assuming, the price is lower as it's not proved, then with a 70% recovery rate and even a tenth of the typical price would give $13.8bn. Add the oil and the parameters I'm looking at are $2bn (JV or farmout) - $20bn sale of Block 12. Obviously, much less chance of the higher figure, but each $1bn is worth about 4.5p on the share price, so IMHO it is worth holding for the higher chart targets.

It will be an II building a stake or the one already in adding.

Yes, up until now.

FiXXeR - I'm not top slicing until about 3.6p. I might sell a few and buy back after 1.2p if it looks like a little retrace is on the cards.