Member Info for Madpunter

I don't think they are, they just want to keep a good float available. IMHO the MM's are squeezing every possible sell from those who panic, and the buys from those lowering their average, or hoping to buy at or near the bottom. Then, they will walk this back up on low volume, until the market wakes up, or news about the EWT's, Field Development Plan, a JV or buyout. Some will sell on the way for a small profit and others because they have their money back or a lower loss. Some will buy as they see momentum in FRR, with the MM's having a much greater margin, as they use what they have stockpiled at or near the bottom. The sellers on the way up will provide much higher margins for the MM's after their stockpiled shares are depleted. This is why many shares suddenly start a trend reversal with no news. IMHO that happens when the MM's algorithms have decided they can't squeeze any more.

Is the II in a closed period as well. My post from yesterday is copied below for those who missed it, as IMHO it links with Max's post.
An II bought 332m @ 0.452p in the PB on the 12th February.
At the start of this month, an II was holding 4.4%, having not bought for 3 months.
That is an increase of 363m shares by the end of May.
The price between the PB and the end of May was mainly in the high 0.4's and the low 0.6's ( see chart below).
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/f/frontera-resources-corp-ord-usd0.00004/share-charts
During the last four weeks they could have bought at a third or more cheaper.
Could they be unable to buy due to negotiations?

An II bought 332m @ 0.452p in the PB on the 12th February.
At the start of this month, an II was holding 4.4%, having not bought for 3 months.
That is an increase of 363m shares by the end of May.
The price between the PB and the end of May was mainly in the high 0.4's and the low 0.6's ( see chart below).
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/f/frontera-resources-corp-ord-usd0.00004/share-charts
During the last four weeks they could have bought at a third or more cheaper.
Could they be unable to buy due to negotiations?

IMHO the MM's have squeezed every possible sell from those who panic, and the buys from those lowering their average, or hoping to buy at or near the bottom. They will walk this back up on low volume, until the market wakes up. Some will sell on the way for a small profit and others because they have their money back or a lower loss. Some will buy as they see momentum in FRR, with the MM's having a much greater margin, as they use what they have stockpiled at or near the bottom. The sellers on the way up will provide much higher margins for the MM's after their stockpiled shares are depleted.

Laks - We now have a day with the sells (0.2685p) reported as buys (0.279p) for a change. The result is no sells and 19m buys from 34 buys. Hopefully, as there's the transformational EWT's, Field Development Plan and revised CPR to come, the MM's are going to walk the price back up. They squeeze the last remaining sells, at the same time as those who are buying to lower their average or hoping to get in at or near the bottom, while taking the price down. Then, when they walk it back up on no volume, they are fully loaded for the higher prices to increase their margins.

We have had weeks of the MM's dropping the price despite more buys on many days and buys reported as sells . Hopefully, with sells hidden as buys, we will now have a run of gains, up to the transformational EWT's, field development plan and revised CPR.

Laks - Yes, legally. That's probably why they sometimes drop the price on good news before letting it rise. I'm sure with their computer algorithms, that they don't get caught out too often. I think they're what's called a necessary evil.

Morning Laks. As soon as I posted the magic number, that would signal the last cancelled trade equal to the remaining number of II PB shares, there was the first cancelled trade not in whole or half millions (within minutes of my post back in early June, then the cancelled trades stopped, but there has been a few over the last few weeks). These trades can't be a PI as a hefty prison sentence would await such obvious manipulation. The MM's can naked short up to 10% to help create a market, so there's no need for them to cancel trades. Only a share swop, for shares locked in and unable to be sold would seem to fit the bill, hence my theory.

Laks - The buys are mainly just under the ask (depends upon the share price and spread) and lots of the sells just under the mid point. 11 sells, 11 mid point and 25 buys. 29m buys, 14m sells and 6.6m mid point.
15-Aug-18 16:27:17 0.2788 2,000,000 Buy* 0.25 0.28 5,576 O
15-Aug-18 15:51:45 0.2699 1,000,000 Buy* 0.25 0.27 2,699 O
15-Aug-18 15:37:22 0.26991,000,000 Sell* 0.26 0.28 2,699 O
15-Aug-18 15:12:50 0.2721 1,000,000 Sell* 0.27 0.28 2,721 O
15-Aug-18 14:39:44 0.2765 2,527,216 Buy* 0.27 0.28 6,987 O
15-Aug-18 09:35:36 0.27 2,000,000 Sell* 0.27 0.28 5,400 O
15-Aug-18 09:21:08 0.2784 3,000,000 Buy* 0.25 0.28 8,352 O
There's an II who has increased their holding from 332m to 363m from 12th February to the end of April (I think this was the share swop that caused the cancelled trades reported in May and June, as the MM's would have some leeway to allow an orderly market). Another 94m would get them to just under the 5%. When I suggested this last week with the price dropped for large trades for an II, mcadder posted that all the trades bar one that I had highlighted were buys (some were listed as sells), but my theory was wrong, as they were his buys. Apparently, he sold 25m in the 0.6's and has bought back in the high 0.2's. IMHO the II is accumulating again.

Laks - The MM's have dropped the price recently despite more buys and through reporting buys as sells etc. To make it more difficult to fathom out the trades today, we have an 8% spread (11% earlier) and 11 of the 44 trades at the mid price. There have been a lot more buys than sells, even if everyone of the mid price was a sell, yet it drops another 7.14%.

Have been reading this BB IMHO. To make the trades harder to fathom we have a nice wide spread of 8% and 11 (6.6m shares in total) of today's 44 trades reported at the mid price.

Laks - The market hasn't grasped the significance of the flow rates fromT39 yet IMHO.
Normally O + G companies set chokes for flow rates which are sustainable over a long period of time, rather than depleting the asset to the point, where pressure and flow rates drop off. However, zone 19, and possibly 21 - 25, can be allowed to flow at much higher rates than would normally be planned, as the drop in pressure will allow co-mingling of Eldari A and B (obviously depending on the safety of equipment etc) . Zone 19 flows at 250 bbls/d with a choke of 6/64" (just a 3mm aperture), which implies over 4,000 bbls/d at full bore (8 x 529 for 8/64" = 4232, but the equation is not linear, as there are other factors).
Also, see the latest note from WHI.
https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/company/FRR/

Just focus on a possible 4,000 bbls/d from T39.

Eldari B will also bring in more money very quickly, when the wet gas can be produced. Normally O + G companies set chokes for flow rates which are sustainable over a long period of time, rather than depleting the asset to the point, where pressure and flow rates drop off. However, zone 19, and possibly 21 - 25, can be allowed to flow at much higher rates than would normally be planned, as the drop in pressure will allow co-mingling of Eldari A and B (obviously depending on the safety of equipment etc) . Zone 19 flows at 250 bbls/d with a choke of 6/64" (just a 3mm aperture), which implies over 4,000 bbls/d at full bore (8 x 529 for 8/64" = 4232, but the equation is not linear, as there are other factors).

If Eldari B becomes the focus of attention, as suggested in the WHI report, then a possible JV or buyout is likely. Due to the gas in zone 19, money is required for it's production, therefore, if FRR is not in negotiation with majors, Eldari B would be plugged and Eldari A produced. This would provide a revenue stream, until money is available for the gas processing in zone 19 and possibly below. Alternatively, if Eldari B is to be produced first then the payback on the wells will be much earlier. If zone 19 flows at 250 bbls/d just from a choke of 6/64", then at full bore over 4000 bbls/d is possible (the equation is not linear as I have explained in previous posts). In reality, the well would be produced at somewhere in between, as O + G companies don't want to produce at levels where the recharge rate couldn't keep the well flowing, as 'blackelv' pointed out a while back. However, producing at higher levels would cause a drop in pressure, which could then allow the Eldari A and B to be flowed together. Hence, FRR might opt for much higher flow rates than would usually be planned (depending upon the safety of equipment etc), as the greater depletion rate of the Eldari B, would bring forward the timetable for co-mingling with Eldari A.

BP paid BHP $10.5bn for an asset producing at 'well under $50/bbl and over 60 others bid on the asset. FRR can produce at $12/bbl for Eldari A, but when Eldari B is added the costs will be significantly lower. We might have to invest in a bigger data room, as it could be a bit of a squeeze.

Coggy - Agreed, the II didn't accumulate in June or July, but has bought 363m shares since the 12th February, when 332m were bought in PB. There's only around 94m to accumulate this month if my theory is correct. The price has been dropping since the cancelled trades and looks to have bottomed, which is when the II is most likely to buy the remaining 94m shares.

Mole - The percentage of shares held by ZN = 6.6%, SN = 10.8% and with others associated with FRR = 17.6%
https://fronteraresources.com/investors/significant-shareholders/

Coggy - I don't subscribe to Reuters or Morning Star, but when I asked about the latest II accumulation Matteh87 posted the figures.

Mole - What is your explanation for the accumulation shown below and the cancelled trades? Until I see a plausible explanation I will stick with my theory.
INSTITUTIONAL HOLDERS
% Shares Owned: 4.40%
# of Holders: 1
Total Shares Held: 694,634,212
3 Mo. Net Change: 66,052,442
# New Positions: 0
# Closed Positions: 0
# Increased Positions: 1
# Reduced Positions: 0
# Net Buyers: 1
mcadder - As the largest trade was £35.5k and the smallest £5k, then you bought between £255k and £275k, as the trades I posted about added up to just under £280k.