Tsbs - You asked if I thought that FRR are really in negotiations with three majors? IMHO, yes they are in negotiations. We know that BH have been involved with FRR from the start and have signed a MOU. We know that BP have signed a NDA (from the court papers) and BP are involved in Azerbaijan which is the same geology. Exxon has been mentioned in the court papers as not interested, but has provided oversight for 6 years. Then why have Exxon provided oversight for 6 years? Why have Exxon bought a 2.5% stake in the BTC pipeline? If they thought that Block 12 wasn't a good prospect, why would they waste their time giving oversight? If Block 12 was a good prospect, why would Exxon want to help if they weren't interested, when the asset could end up with competitor's?
Then add the following facts :-
1) Internal estimates of 18 billion barrels of oil and 202 TCF of gas, and now reserves of 14 billion barrels of oil and 30 TCF of gas .
2) Plenty of pipelines through or near Block 12 and a ready market on the doorstep.
3) Some of the cheapest costs in the world of less than $12/bbl.
4) Some of the best sweet crude in the world at 41.5 API.
Gipps - The GG have 51% under the PSA. FRR have 100% of Block 12, therefore any sale of Block 12 will give FRR 100% of the money and the GG will have to wait until BP, Exxon and BH (if my assumption of a buyout by all three is correct) start producing. If Block 12 is sold, the sunk costs will not be refunded and the GG will get 51% of production straight away, which is like a taxation percentage agreed years in advance. In other words the GG will not get the lump sum that you have stated as possible.
Gipps - Looking at the top ten oil acquisitions reminds me why FRR has to keep schtum. Chevron was buying Anardarko for $50bn and then Occidental came in with a bigger offer of $57bn. Great for Anardarko, but extra time to complete the deal. Remember the clock is ticking on payments and licensing requirements for FRR. Also interesting is the proven reserves of 1.473 billion BOE for Anardarko, which means that FRR has THIRTEEN TIMES AS MUCH (19.1bnBOE/1.473bnBOE = 12.96). Anardarko was producing a devil of a lot of oil per day (666k BOE/D).
Posted by TOT on ii :-
Well I just noticed the discussion on lse board tonight and thought I’d investigate. One thing which stood out for me was that in the HSE section there’s this page which contains a preview of their HSE report for 2019:https://fronteraresources.com/csr/ with the headline of ‘Zero Harm in 2019’. This does seem to suggest that operations have continued since the stock was suspended last December so I thought I’d google to see if I could find a copy of the actual document.
That search produced this page:https://fronteraresources.com/hse/ 3 which as you will see requires a password to enter. So it seems to me that the company is in the course of updating the website as we speak and there are certain areas they don’t want to be seen at the moment. Now why would they ddo that if the company is a dead duck as the guys on Advfn keep telling us?
Tin helmet removed for now ready for the big reveal.
RogerA - Look back at the posts. There is no stating 'a deal is done', only 'assuming a deal has been agreed'. No deal is done until the signatures are on the dotted line and complex deals can fail in the final moments, so what anyone thinks is happening may still not happen. I'm confident that a deal will be done, but that doesn't mean that it's a certainty.
Leadfinger - Look back at Aurora1's posts as well as mine. You need to reduce the possible amount of £8 per share to account for CAPEX and the fact that the Permian acquisition was already producing 190k bbls/d. That production would give an instant return of $9.5m/d (revenue, not profit) from the moment BP signed. A not insignificant sum, which equates to $3.4bn/year (@$50/bbl). Without a breakdown of costs it is impossible to work out how much of the 'well under $50/bbl costs have already been met with drilling, fracking and connecting to pipelines by BHP. Therefore, I would be surprised if we get even half your figure.
theprodigy - That is why I have always thought it would be a consortium. In the edited podcast Zaza stated three majors; the court papers showed Exxon oversight for the last 5 years (6 years now); BH have been in from the start and have signed a MOU; and the court papers also state that BP have signed a NDA. As explained previously, a large deal with a number of participants will take a long time and require an absence of news. Throw in a handful of court cases and the silence is imperative.
Gipps - I don't know about me losing you, I think it's the other way around. Your 22:06 post stated 'Full TO for me if the oil and associated gas is flowing well . Why would a Super Major not want the lot.' Then your 23:04 post stated 'I had BP for the gas in Block 12 , the oil who knows possibly a JV there initially with an unknown party at present and EXXON backing the Dolphin tenure .' As for recovering the sunk costs, if the price is right for a buyout of Block 12, they may be a sweetener for the GG. IMHO a CPR isn't required as the super majors will have been verifying Block 12, hence the recent press statement showing 14+ billion barrels of oil and 30 TCF of gas reserves (19.1 + billion barrels of oil equivalent).
Aurora - That deal was for 4.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent resources @ well below $50/bbl for $10.5bn.
FRR has more than FOUR TIMES as much oil equivalent @ less than $12/bbl costs. Current oil prices are $56.01/bbl for WTI and $60/bbl for FRR's oil (sells at a premium to Brent which is currently $59.67/bbl). Therefore, there's EIGHT TIMES as much profit selling the oil from Block 12 and FOUR TIMES as much of the stuff (FRR - $60/bbl -$12/bbl = $48/bbl; BP's Permian, $56/bbl - $50/bbl = $6/bbl).
Posted bt TOT on ii :-
I see that all posts by Brookemia and the replies have been pulled by ii, and the silly billy subsequently hanged himself on Advfn when he put up this post:
brookemia19 Aug '19 - 15:43 - 30292 of 30302
0 0 0
Good Afternoon Mr Hall,
Thank you for your email.
I do apologise for the delay in the response.
I have deleted the post and any replies to the post, I have also suspended and silenced the account forever.
If you wish to gain access to this research/discussion account again please let me know.
If there is anything else I can do for you please don’t hesitate to ask.
Paige | Operations
T: 0345 607 6001 "
Gipps - IMHO FRR will sell Block 12, but not a FRR. IMHO as the super majors are still involved with Russia, they will will want to distance themselves from Ukraine and Moldova at present. Also, the value of FRR's assets in those countries will be very low until a CPR is undertaken, therefore it wouldn't be in FRR's interests.
RogerA - Assuming a deal has been agreed by FRR and the super majors doesn't mean it has been signed yet. If it is with BP, Exxon and BH (more time for more interested parties) it will take time for the lawyers and accountants to go over the paperwork before signing. Also, I would assume if such a deal is in place, that it will be a mixture of cash and shares in those companies. This type of deal will require the share price for the deal based upon a weighted average (the POO as well as trading will effect the share price) for a number of days prior to the deal (similar to the conversion price deal with YA for the preference shares). Therefore, if the paperwork was to be signed say at the end of August, there may be a weighted average share price used for the whole month. Prior to this sequence of events the majors may have agreed a value for Block 12, but were still negotiating the percentages of ownership. Therefore, FRR and the super majors may have been in a position of knowing about the deal long before any signatures are put to paper.
Posted by TOT on ii :-
I’m afraid Brookie’s telling porkies again as you can see from his posting history in this link:https://www.ii.co.uk/discussion/u/brookemia/activity/replies
I have had many a spat with him on the QFI board over the years and he got me banned from ii for a while. Fortunately I got re-instated after a campaign by fellow shareholders and threats to take their business elsewhere eventually overwhelmed II’s Neighbourhood Watch team. ‘Brookie’ as he is known to QFI shareholders has a massive grudge against the company and I thought he had been banned at the same time I was reinstated. I suspect he has crept back in following the website revamp and his posting history is clear to see on both II and Advfn boards.
What I can’t get my head around is the fact that he never posted on FRR on either forum prior to its delisting but has recently taken to baiting the trolls who inhabit the Advfn board. He also has a history of interfering in the business affairs of companies by writing to other companies that they are associated with.
Curiouser and curiouser said Alice…
Zib - I thought I'd post about Target2 as none of my friends who voted remain had ever heard the name before. I won't post anymore about Brexit on here as I've set up a thread 'somewhere else' :-
Cloaking it all is obfuscation, political mendacity and endemic denial. Leaders of the
heavily indebted states have misled their voters with soothing bromides, falsely
suggesting that some form of fiscal union or debt mutualisation is just around the
corner. Yet there is no chance of political union or the creation of an EU treasury in
the forseeable future, which would in any case require a sweeping change to the
German constitution – an impossible proposition in the current political climate. The
European project must therefore function as a union of sovereign states, or fail.
The previous post and the continuation above are copied from pages 39 and 40 from the link below:-
Similarly, Otmar Issing, the ECB’s first chief economist and one of the founding fathers of
monetary union, admits that the ECB is becoming dangerously over-extended and the whole
euro project is unworkable in its current form:
One day, the house of cards will collapse. The euro has been betrayed by politics, the
experiment went wrong from the beginning and has since degenerated into a fiscal
free-for-all that once again masks the festering pathologies. Realistically, it will be a
case of muddling through, struggling from one crisis to the next. It is difficult to
forecast how long this will continue for, but it cannot go on endlessly…The Stability
and Growth Pact has more or less failed. The moral hazard is overwhelming. Market
discipline is done away with by ECB interventions. There is no fiscal control
mechanism from markets or politics. This has all the elements to bring disaster for
monetary union. The no-bailout clause is violated every day and the European
Court's approval for bailout measures is simple-minded and ideological.…The ECB
has crossed the Rubicon and is now in an untenable position, trying to reconcile
conflicting roles as banking regulator, Troika enforcer in rescue missions and agent
of monetary policy. Its own financial integrity is increasingly in jeopardy.
The venture began to go off the rails immediately, though the structural damage was
disguised by the financial boom. There was no speed-up of convergence after 1999 –
rather, the opposite. From day one, quite a number of countries started working in the
wrong direction. A string of states let rip with wage rises, brushing aside warnings
that this would prove fatal in an irrevocable currency union. During the first eight
years, unit labour costs in Portugal rose by 30% versus Germany. In the past, the
escudo would have devalued by 30%, and things more or less would be back to where
they were. Quite a few countries – including Ireland, Italy and Greece – behaved as
though they could still devalue their currencies. The elemental problem is that once a
high-debt state has lost 30% in competitiveness within a fixed exchange system, it is
almost impossible to claw back the ground in the sort of deflationary world we face
today. It has become a trap. The whole Eurozone structure has acquired a
contractionary bias. The deflation is now self-fulling. The first Greek rescue in 2010
was little more than a bailout for German and French banks. It would have been far
better to eject Greece from the euro as a salutary lesson for all. The Greeks should
have been offered generous support, but only after it had restored exchange rate
viability by returning to the drachma. [The fear was a chain-reaction reaching Spain
and Italy, detonating an uncontrollable financial collapse. This nearly happened on
two occasions, and remained a risk until Berlin switched tack and agreed to let the
ECB shore up the Spanish and Italian debt markets in 2012.]
Sorry, the link didn't work :-
Target2 will bring down the EU pack of cards eventually IMHO.
The Quora link gives a simple explanation of the stupidity of Target2 IMHO :-
The easiest way to understand Target2 balances is to discover how they come about. You’ll realise just how odd the whole thing is.
There are two ways. The first is to do with trade.
When a Greek buys a German car, he sends money to Germany and gets a car in return.
The eurozone monetary system now has a problem. The amount of euros in Greece has fallen and the amount of euros in Germany has risen. This couldn’t happen if each country had its own currency, as that currency would only be valid in their home country.
If Greece continues with a trade deficit over time, it’ll eventually run out of euros. Which is a terrifying prospect for economists. So they send the money from Germany back to Greece via the Target2 system.
To record the transaction of euros flowing back south, Germany gets a Target2 asset and Greece a Target2 liability. In a way, Greece gives Germany a very abstract “IOU” for the money sent to Greece.
Over time, as the trade deficit continues, Germany’s Target2 assets build up and Greece’s Target2 liability builds up.
In theory, the trade balance is supposed to reverse… eventually. Olive oil exports sold to Germany become bigger than German car exports sold to Greece. The Target2 balance trends back towards 0. No problems arise.
The trouble is, the Target2 system has abolished all the natural forces which make trade rebalance over time. The exchange rate between Germany and Greece cannot adjust to encourage Greek exports and make German cars more expensive in Greece. They’re both on the euro.
Because Target2 is nothing but an accounting entry, it effectively costs Greece as a country nothing to buy German cars. The money they paid Germans flows straight back into Greece via Target2. So the Greeks can go on buying more German cars.
The Germans are being robbed, and they’re financing Greece’s trade deficit at the same time. Without any hope of that trade deficit reversing. Which means the Greek economy is kept in the doldrums, unable to rebalance and return to economic growth.
Bezzy - Thanks, but I will refrain from reading the posting history on ADVFN, as I'm not a member, so can't access the full threads etc. I don't intend to join that site as it's full of vile personal abuse, which wouldn't be tolerated on other sites. Still it enables all of the TW follower's to congregate in one place, which might make life easier for the SEC, 'IF' the racketeering charges eluded to previously materialise.
Please pass on the ID requirement to brookemia, as it's possible that whoever has accessed her email, is also the same person who posted on ii.