Member Info for Madpunter

mcadder - You included the words 'if not all' to try to pour cold water over the theory and it didn't work. Read my posts.
II 4.4% with accumulation last month. Just under 95m required to reach just under the reported threshold. The way the large trades are reported, your's included, is the sort of pattern seen when accumulation is taking place, especially when the price is traded in a range (see SILAS's posts last week). MM's will not only fill an order with large trades.

13-Aug-1814:49:46 0.283 1,752,410 Sell* 0.28 0.30 4,959 O
13-Aug-1814:05:580.289 2,000,000 Sell* 0.28 0.30 5,780 O
13-Aug-1813:45:060.283 71,716 Sell* 0.28 0.30 202.96 O
IMHO another 2m buy @ 0.289p, as the sells either side with the same spread are @ 0.283p.

ODR - Do you think when MM's are filling a large order that they only fill it with large trades? They use algorithms to fill it with random trades of all sizes. As for mcadder's buys it went from 'if not all' to 'obviously not all'. It is the pattern of buys and the share price movement, coupled with the 4.4% II position that is important.

CODEY - When the MM's are happy that the average they quoted can be achieved they will let it fly IMHO.
mapp - So that it is more difficult for PI's to work out what is happening with the share price.

13-Aug-1811:22:13 0.29 344,827 Sell* 0.28 0.30 1,000.00 O
13-Aug-1811:17:24 0.29 50,000 Sell* 0.28 0.30 145.00 O
13-Aug-1810:45:59 0.29 23,000 Sell* 0.28 0.30 66.70 O
Right on the midpoint, but reported as a sell. Either side of these three trades the sells are at 0.282 and 0.283, which makes me think that these are buys. Are the MM's trying to disguise the buys after posts about accumulation etc?

Tsbs - To save money. Imagine ExxonMobil offered £2bn for the company. That would equate to £100m for 5%. If they had bought 2.1% for $5.7m (it was around £4.275m at the time of the cancelled trade) and 2.9% at an average of 0.4p (£1.8m). Then they spend roughly £6m for 5%, saving £94m just for a few phone calls to a broker. Why wouldn't they want to buy 5% on the cheap? Also, if Zaza was playing hardball with negotiating a price, it would strengthen their hand (Exxon). All just conjecture, but until I see a more plausible theory for the cancelled trades and accumulation by the II, then IMHO, this could be happening. I'm not the only one thinking that the MM's are helping to fill a large order. Look at SILAS's recent posts. DYOR.

mcadder - 'obviously not all of the big trades'. I rest my case.

mcadder - I could believe a majority ( could be double, 50m, or treble, 75m, your original holding), but I could not believe
'if not all', as you posted at 1457 hrs. As I have explained, I expect the three days in the week before last, plus next week to be required, as not all the shares available will go to fill one order.

mcadder - If you did purchase all those shares, then you would have invested almost £280k.

The trade for the 06/08 should be £35.5k not £24k. I also missed a trade for £15k, so it should be 4 x £15k.
mcadder - Why should I trust you, especially when there's nothing to back up what you are suggesting is fact?
I decided to add up all the trades I have mentioned and they total 94,887,290. The II required just over 94.7m to reach the 5% threshold, so even if a few are taken by PI's, maybe even you, the II is well on the way to reaching their target. IMHO, with the three trading days in the previous week to the 94,887,290 bought and all of next week, there's ample time to reach the target of 94.7m.
ODR - If a share swop took place between the II from the PB and ExxonMobil, the transaction could have taken place in one day. The MM's could then be allowed to release the cancelled trades in tranches over time, to allow an orderly market. The MM's were allowed to sell YA's shares in tranches allowing an orderly market, with the new II buying them, hence the increase to 4.4%. If a NDA is in place, then what is happening with the cancelled trades cannot be divulged.

ODR - I wouldn't expect to be right with all the trades I have shown, otherwise it would be easy to point the finger at MM malpractice. There were also buys of £20k on the 10/08; 3 x £15k and a £14.5k on the 09/08; £24.6k and £15.2k on the 08/08; £19.92k on the 07/08; and £24k on the 06/06. The latter was shown as a sell, but the previous day's trading went as low as 0.25p and closed at 0.27p, therefore, with a price of 0.284p it could easily have been a buy. Hence, some days the MM's buy for the II early and on other's they wait until later. They need to create a smokescreen and also balance the books, if there are surplus sells from the previous day.

Ta-trade - I missed out on the rise of SOLG from the under 9p to 46p, as when I looked at the company I saw very low levels of gold. If I had looked up porphyry system I would have understood what all the fuss was about. Research is king. Good luck.

ExxonMobil had a cancelled trade for 70k shares for $5.7m on the 10th May. If I'm right and these were swapped, then the II almost trebled their money in just 3 months (it was 285% for the exchange rate at the time - £1.5m FRR for $5.7m 0R1M). It might be fanciful, but give me another explanation for the cancelled trades. Manipulation by an individual - too obvious = prison; manipulation by MM's - not required as they can use 'naked shorting' up to 10% and it's not YA as they are being paid cash and there's been no holding RNS showing more shares issued. There's also the II accumulation posted by Matteh87 at the start of the month from Reuters or Morning Star.

I have posted many times about my view that the cancelled trades are a share swop, between the II who bought bin the PB and someone like ExxonMobil. Assuming I am correct, why were the trades initially reported as sells then cancelled, if it wasn't to drop the share price? This week there have been buys cancelled, the 4m @ mid point on the 9th August at 16:40, was then cancelled as a buy on the 10th August. IMHO the cancelled trades have been used to help keep the price in a range for a large order for the new II. They will possibly stop accumulating just below the 5% threshold, if they are in negotiation with FRR. The II only required just over 94.7m shares to reach 5% based upon the II holding posted at the start of the month. There have been many large buys since with 44m last week (7.5m in three trades on 10/08, 10m on 09/08, 11m on the 08/08, 7.5m on the 07/08, 8m on the 06/08, with all at the end of the day). Therefore, IMHO if my assumptions are correct, the accumulating will stop at the end of this coming week or the start of the following week. Timed for the end of the lock in period and the EWT's?

I almost forgot, there's also 202TCF of gas.

Ta-trade - The number of shares is irrelevant without further information. Plenty of majors with billions of shares. FRR had to resort to dilution to keep the company afloat after the Russian invasion of Georgia, THE DAY AFTER THEY STARTED FLOWING OIL. The directors are heavily invested; Zm ha 6.6%, at an average of 0.659p and has spent over £6m; SN has 10.8% and has spent more. They have fought off a hostile takeover (why would anyone want it if it was one of the companies on AIM that have no future?). The company has proved up 10.225 billion barrels of oil (OOIP) of which 1.673 billion is recoverable. There's 1856km of 2D and 230km 3D seismic and 1204 soviet era wells. The oil has been flowing for over 9 years (at low volumes) and modern fracking has now given higher rates (initial with EWT due, but enough data for an II to fund the next well and YA to agree to cash payments of £265,000 per month instead of more shares issued to sell = NO MORE DILUTION). The oil costs less than $12/bbl and when the T39 well data is added this will drop significantly. T39 is flowing naturally without fracking at 250 bbls/d through a 6/64" choke (just a 3mm hole) and at 8/64" achieved 529 bbls/d (that would be over 4200 bbls/d with full bore depending upon pressures etc). T39 also flowed wet gas at 350,000 scf/d. The company is now in field development phase and will have access to funds other than through dilution. Why do you think the II is accumulating shares? You might be laughing now, but IMHO it won't be for much longer. Something else to consider, BP just bought oil fields off BHP for $10.5bn, with over 60 companies bidding, where the oil costs 'well under $50/bbl'. That's a lot more than FRR's $12/bbl and that will drop significantly with zone 19 and further when the deeper zones are added.

Laks - I'm not in KOD anymore, I sold mid 20's as I thought it would drop into the mid teens. Concentrating on FRR, as I still believe it is due a major re-rate. The share price has been increased in recent days just before reporting a large buy, so that it appears as a sell (smaller sells, but still of 1m plus shares were getting a lower price). Today they drop the price 8% on nothing and the late reported trades go through as buys (lot more buys than sells). Manipulation to allow an II to accumulate IMHO.

INSTITUTIONAL HOLDERS
% Shares Owned: 4.40%
# of Holders: 1
Total Shares Held: 694,634,212
3 Mo. Net Change: 66,052,442
# New Positions: 0
# Closed Positions: 0
# Increased Positions: 1
# Reduced Positions: 0
# Net Buyers: 1

The above was posted by Matteh87 when I asked if anyone had a subscription to Reuters or Morning Star at the start of the month.
Factor in the secret II who is funding Niko and the delay in the EWT's, with the share accumulation and IMHO a JV or sale of Block 12 is a possibility.

I have a lot of respect for CTW – and indeed most LTHs here. However whilst I agree on some of the observations around communications (which I think at times have been overly optimistic) I don’t share his views regarding recent progress.

First I remain fully invested here – and indeed remain very positive regarding the prospects.

Second, the history here is undoubtedly one of politics, funding, geology and some pretty poor management. However we also know that hostile takeover activity was a theme through 2015 and 2016 - adding to the complexity. Though out those troubled times most of us stuck with it simply because of the asset – which most of the evidence suggests is very real.

My confidence was re invigorated through 2017 as a) the field feasibility programme was submitted in April 2017, b) the debt was re-engineered a few months later and c) Zaza came on board as CEO. Effectively this was in my view a re-launch of the company based upon testing and developing Tarabani oil reserves

MK Gas was a sudden addition based on a £750K investment that was clearly opportunist for some reason, and in the end disappointingly failed to deliver a production outcome. Whilst the short term goal clearly didn’t work I am sure that it did provide much new information for the future. However the initial WHI valuation of course never assumed any result here – as I have pointed out many times – and attributed $484 million to the Tarabani oil asset only.

Re the current testing most of the information I have gleaned from many sources suggests that well tests take quite a long time to work through - and as I have pointed out several times it is about far more than flow rates. Particularly if you are looking for the data that is needed to declare reserves at some point.

Re T39 I actually think this is not just a “lucky” throw of the dice – it is something that they have chosen to do to extend the remit of the test programme – and I congratulate them for doing it.

Clearly the immediate focus is on the Eldari A well tests – and the SP will act accordingly. But I for one would prefer they take their time to get the full picture – I certainly do not want them saying “here are the interim results, but we haven’t finished yet, so will report again at a future date”.

Just my view – I have no doubt that we are very close to an update

Laks - After the RNS it dropped to 5% and is now at 14%. More of a drop to come IMHO, as there's a possible delay from the wording of the RNS for the JORC :-
The Board's current best estimate is that the report will be published in early September, although this timing cannot be guaranteed at this stage.

Share price just notched up in time to report the 11m share buy as a sell.