Member Info for Madpunter

Mole - I think that the 'production could be SIGNIFICANTLY higher'is probably due to the choke size of 8/64, as the pipe is only open for an eighth, which implies that it could flow at 8 x 529bpd = 4232bpd. However, the increased choke size does not give a linear increase in flow, as there are other factors. Furthermore, because of the pressure differences between the bottom of the hole and the surface, damage can occur if they get the choke size wrong. I think they will have a better understanding after the EWT as to the best choke size, and I'm sure they wouldn't want to take any unnecessary risks. If there is anyone on here with a better understanding of the physics, they could explain the other factors that link flow rates and choke size.
http://gekengineering.com/Downloads/Free_Downloads/Choke.pdf

I don't think that the rules will be relevant, as IMHO Block 12 will be sold and not FRR, as no value would be added for the assets in Moldova and Ukraine. The only way that Zaza will want to sell FRR and not Block 12, will be if an offer that is too good to turn down is made. If that happens any need for a share holder meeting, will be just to ticking boxes, as the result of a vote would be a forgone conclusion.

There were four 1 codes last week from Monday to Thursday, but none of them had a sequence of 'larger' 1 codes preceding them.

10-Jul-1815:27:220.34991Buy* 0.340.350.00O
10-Jul-1815:24:140.3498500,001Buy* 0.340.351,749O
10-Jul-1815:23:130.34751,000,001Buy* 0.340.353,475O
10-Jul-1815:21:340.34851,500,001Buy* 0.340.355,228O
10-Jul-1815:20:510.34661,500,001Buy* 0.340.355,199O

OneDayRodney1 - No rumour , just a £36k buy.

FRR now on the move. It jumped from just over 1% to 17% in minutes!

goose83 - The gas was commercial last November and Zaza promised a Xmas present. Then FRR go for a bigger proppant volume delaying results. IMHO this is all linked to giving time for DD for someone like ExxonMobil. Then any offer could be made when flow rates are released, or soon after, before any competitors. Also, factor the way the oil wells have been fracked to give information about the different zones, instead of co-mingling the zones and producing to bring in funds. A later well, when there are plenty of funds coming in could have been used for this purpose. Everything points to a sale of Block 12 IMHO.

FRR has now turned blue for direction, but not strength. Looking highly oversold and due for a bounce. Extended flow rates due and the lack of news points towards a possible deal in the background, IMHO.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/FRR.LS/opinion

Lobsi - As well as the grades, the type of sampling is also relevant, with surface rock chip, trench sample and drill cores giving increasing levels of certainty (bulk mined samples are also undertaken to ensure processing is possible, such as with KOD). The spacing of the drill samples is also relevant with inferred, indicated and measured grades (increasing levels of certainty). If the mine is a porphyry system such as SOLG, then low levels of Copper and Gold are still relevant, as porphyry systems can have billions of tonnes of ore allowing economies of scale.
http://www.jorc.org/
ftp://ftp.ige.unicamp.br/pub/ge_902/Classificacao/reservas_snowden.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mineral_resource_classification

Lobsi - As well as the grades, the type of sampling is also relevant, with surface rock chip, trench sample and drill cores giving increasing levels of certainty (bulk mined samples are also undertaken to ensure processing is possible, such as with KOD). The spacing of the drill samples is also relevant with inferred, indicated and measured grades (increasing levels of certainty). If the mine is a porphyry system such as SOLG, then low levels of Copper and Gold are still relevant, as porphyry systems can have billions of tonnes of ore allowing economies of scale.
http://www.jorc.org/
ftp://ftp.ige.unicamp.br/pub/ge_902/Classificacao/reservas_snowden.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mineral_resource_classification

No posts since Thursday!

OneDayRodney1 - Impossible to say unless all the cancelled trades are counted, which I haven't. However, as they have virtually stopped this week, I think we have reached the end of them, bar possibly a few adding to the magic number.

There have been plenty of 5m and 6m sells since the last RNS, enough for FRR to have sold to cover the first payment for YA. There have been only a few cancelled trades, which IMHO are the tail end of the share swap between the II and ExxonMobil. As soon as I posted about the magic number for confirmation, within minutes a cancelled trade was shown for 3,305,917 on 11th at 11:58:00 leaving a new magic number. Then at 15:17:07 on the 11th a trade for 402,573 was cancelled, meaning the number now finishes with 49817. There have been very few cancelled trades since and IMHO, if I'm right about the swap, the magic number won't show until everything is done and dusted.

IMHO the cancelled trades are not far of completion and the reporting has been delayed. The cancelled trades for 3,305,917 and 402,573 signaled a change.

Timster - There was a cancelled trade for 3m shares at 09:10:26 today.

If the cancelled trades are not a share swap, what are they?

Retireby40 - The II would want to make a profit, �1.5m of shares for �4.26m ($5.7m). If ExxonMobil were buying that sort of volume in the open market, the share price would have risen considerably from the higher price we had prior to the cancelled trades.

Retireby40 - The cancelled trade was for 70,000 shares for $5.7m on the 10th May.

Just to keep you in the picture, I have copied my post on FRR from yesterday below and the RNS about YA. 1) T45 - 270bpd and on extended flow test from 8th April. 2) Dino - 315bpd and on extended flow test from 7th May. 3) T39 - Started testing about the 1st June. 4) Ud-2 - Started testing on 21st April. (dates copied from this bb. I can't remember who posted them). 5)YA - A new agreement to pay $265kpm. 6) Niko - Funding of $3m. 7) Ud-2 has been on test around 48 days, which implies it is commercial, otherwise the market would have to be informed. 8) Consevative estimate of oil revenue - 1500bpd from three wells x $70 x 30 days = $3.15m per month. 270bpd = 315bpd = 585bpd, with a pump x 50% = 877.5bpd. Add zones 9 and 13 and 1000bpd for T45 and Dino is realistic. Add another 50% for T39 = 1500bpd. IMHO - a) YA would not have agreed to a monthly payment if they weren't confident of being paid. b) Niko doesn't require funding, but due to market speculation, FRR set up funding with an unkown II to appease the market. c) Point b) could be to allow time for a share swap with the II who bought in the PB and ExxonMobil. This would also allow Exxon time to accumulate up to the 5% threshold in the open market at a low price, especially if the swap is drip-fed. It would also allow time for the extended flow results to be known, so that a value can be placed on gas or Block 12. DYOR. http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=FRR&ArticleCode=ar6q8fgs&ArticleHeadline=Financing_Update

Retireby40 - They can't sell them as they are still in the lock-in period, but they could swap them with someone like ExxonMobil for their shares. The exchange would show as a trade, which is later cancelled.

OneDayRodney1 - If it gets cancelled I'm right and if it doesn't you are right. With all the increased sell trades being cancelled I'm still edging in that direction.