Member Info for Madpunter

kaisersuzae - I initially thought a swap with YA, then both YA and the II, but after the recent agreement to pay YA $265k per month, I think that it is just the II. The II bought 331,858,407 shares for �1.5m in the PB. Also, ExxonMobil had a cancelled trade for �5.7m for 70k shares on the 10th May, which is why Iinitially thought the swap involved both the II and YA.

Retireby40 - That would indicate the last of the share swap of the 331,858,407 shares bought by an II in the last PB.

OneDayRodney1 - But late reported trades show the earlier time.

Retireby40 - There's no tick-up because it's a sell and the trade just before it, as all the other buys before and after are @ .43. IMHO it will be cancelled later, as the volume of cancelled trades is increasing. Not long before the magic number finishing with 1,858,407.

1) T45 - 270bpd and on extended flow test from 8th April. 2) Dino - 315bpd and on extended flow test from 7th May. 3) T39 - Started testing about the 1st June. 4) Ud-2 - Started testing on 21st April. (dates copied from this bb. I can't remember who posted them). 5)YA - A new agreement to pay $265kpm. 6) Niko - Funding of $3m. 7) Ud-2 has been on test around 48 days, which implies it is commercial, otherwise the market would have to be informed. 8) Consevative estimate of oil revenue - 1500bpd from three wells x $70 x 30 days = $3.15m per month. 270bpd = 315bpd = 585bpd, with a pump x 50% = 877.5bpd. Add zones 9 and 13 and 1000bpd for T45 and Dino is realistic. Add another 50% for T39 = 1500bpd. IMHO - a) YA would not have agreed to a monthly payment if they weren't confident of being paid. b) Niko doesn't require funding, but due to market speculation, FRR set up funding with an unkown II to appease the market. c) Point b) could be to allow time for a share swap with the II who bought in the PB and ExxonMobil. This would also allow Exxon time to accumulate up to the 5% threshold in the open market at a low price, especially if the swap is drip-fed. It would also allow time for the extended flow results to be known, so that a value can be placed on gas or Block 12. DYOR.

20m from yesterday plus a delayed 15m from 6th, as the sell wasn't reported until yesterday. I thought that the amounts appeared to be increasing earlier in the week, which is why I posted of a possible increase to 20m at the time.

I was wrong in my assumption of a share swop with YA, but the II could still be a possibility. If the cancelled trades continue past the first payment to YA, then that IMHO is what is happening. However, if the cancelled trades stop, then YA may be the culprit. I am not au fait with the original agreement with YA, but the mechanism for YA offloading seemed that they sold batches of shares until a limit was reached, then FRR converted the preference shares to balance the register. Then it is possible that YA could sell recently, to drive the price down while negotiating a new settlement. When the contract notes were forwarded to FRR, for inclusion in the register, they cancelled the trade. If a NDA was in place between FRR and YA, then they couldn't inform the market about the cancelled trades.

Looking at todays trades IMHO we will see 20m cancelled tomorrow and the same or more now that the 16th June isn't too far away.

pyrotech - I wouldn't mind if I am wrong and you are right, as either way results in a positive outcome. I don't think we will find out until the 16th June or just after.

Lubumbashi - If they are cancelled trades, then it is very obvious share price manipulation, therefore, it is very unlikely. Hence, my thoughts on a share swop ( pyrotech also thinks a swop, but YA to the II, which is also possible). If the shares are being swopped, then until the 5% threshold for reporting is reached, then the transactions are shown as a sell. As YA cannot sell the preference shares, the sell is cancelled the next day. Similarly, the II cannot sell during the lock-in period and the sell is cancelled the next day. OneDayRodney1 - The share price is going down as the MM's seize any opportunity to lower or raise the price to create a market, often inline with the charts. If a large order was also placed by someone like ExxonMobil, then they would want to accumulate as cheaply as possible, while the swop was drip-fed into the market. This would allow accumulation before the 5% threshold is reached and also give more time for stable flow rates and DD.DYOR.

IMHO the 10 - 20m cancelled trades each day have to be a share swop between either an II who bought in PB and can't sell yet or YA and someone like ExxonMobil. If I'm right then FRR may not be able to comment due to a NDA. The only alternative I see is share manipulation, which would be very obvious and result in a lengthy spell in prison in the USA. I think YA is the likely candidate and also the reason for the extra time taken to allow stable flow rates from Ud-2, as Zazat wants YA to benefit as little as possible and Exxon wants more time for DD.DYOR. �2.18m + �1.5m (II shares in the last PB) = �3.68m. If they are being swopped with ExxonMobil, YA and the II would want a quick profit. ExxonMobil has a cancelled trade from the 10th May for 70k shares for �5.7m, which is a quick 55% profit. 10-May-1810:01:4481.4305-70,000 0.000.00-5.700MO Only another week until we find out, when the loan settlement is due for YA.

-rAsMus- Thanks for charts. I was referring to the possible change in sentiment due to the RNS. A lot depends upon who farms-in. A minnow will continue the downtrend, but a major should change sentiment IMHO. http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=SOU&share=sound_energy

Ripcat - Thanks for the heads up.

SOU farm-in could signal a trend reversal. Too early to tell yet. PETS looks on the decline again.

I spoke too soon. As soon as I posted level 2 returned.

Ripcat - No level 2 again. The last 3 months have been a joke.

Better than getting your fingers burnt!

There were lots of large cancelled trades for PETS yesterday as it has exited the FTSE 250. The difference with the cancelled trades for FRR is that they take place at the same time as the initial trade and there is a slight difference in the price. IMHO these were transfers from a tracker fund to another fund held by the same company, therefore, they were shares that can be traded. Whereas, the cancelled trades for FRR are cancelled the next day for exactly the same amount as they are shares that cannot be traded. Hence, they are the preference shares from YA and possibly also the shares locked in from the II, although I am now thinking that only the former is the most likely.

ma5k - Some of them have been cancelled (copied below, plus there was another for �105k). As there's a slight difference between each pair, like in a BED and ISA, IMHO they are transfers from tracker funds to other funds owned by the same company. 30-May-1817:03:47125.262322,864Sell* 128.00128.30404.43kO 30-May-1817:03:47125.387-322,864Sell* 128.00128.30-404.83kO 30-May-1817:03:46125.26219,847Sell* 128.00128.3024.86kO 30-May-1817:03:46125.387-19,847Sell* 128.00128.30-24.89kO 30-May-1817:03:24125.2626322,864Sell* 128.00128.30404.43kO 30-May-1817:03:24125.3878-322,864Sell* 128.00128.30-404.83kO 30-May-1817:03:14125.262619,847Sell* 128.00128.3024.86kO 30-May-1817:03:14125.3878-19,847Sell* 128.00128.30-24.89kO

Thanks ma5k. I will take a look at PETS around the 15th June for the bounce.