DUPED10 Feb 2020 18:39
Shocking communication has always been the MO from Caspian but Clive has outdone himself on this one and he has misled the market.
The 1500 bopd was hugely misleading as they've extrapolated the flow rate using a 12mm choke for seconds, minutes ? can't have been long to produce 1887 in the month.....lol. They cleaned the well, took their time pre perforation and on 2/1 announced that estimated flow rate was 1500 bopd but expecting more, 29 days later we received the 'more', 387 total barrels, you couldn't make it up.
They could've done the boat deal post A5 announcement, that would've been a shocker with 30% more dilution if done at the same premium but that wouldn't have sailed ! imo.
Our KO has done all the tax planning, loaded as many assets in to the Caspian shell as poss and the only way he wins is by the sp going north or he does a deal with a mate to buy ole Caspian out on the cheap, i still believe it's the former.
Re Thursday, i'm sure those attending have a list of questions but the the last 2 A5 announcements need to be read out to our Clive, if he's in attendance and for him to explain the misleading communication before somebody takes this further. They've always set unrealistic expectations and under delivered in style but this was misleading and many PIs would have made decisions based on the comms.
I still believe that this comes good as i can't see any sense in dumping all the **** into Caspian just to offset current liabilities from family and friends ?
Drilling A9 to test the extremity of the Airshagyl structure, why spend $Xm on another deep when 3 A wells are non commercial at this time ? Makes no sense at all to me and at some juncture, the sp will appreciate, the alternative isn't worth thinking about.