Member Info for KumKuat

CC,

Badly worded. Yep 3AB was always going to be sold but the price will depend on the quality of the success. The association to the deeps was the partnering, outsource element but not to sell it.

60% up from the recent lows, it feels like we've turned a corner, weathered the Covid crisis and on the start of the recovery to pre 2020 sp levels. We have enough in the pipeline to generate a recovery but it's the first flowing deep that will be the catalyst to make that recovery rapid.

FY2020 out this month, hopefully with some good commentary on 2021 trading and more importantly, the strategic plan explaining how they plan to do it.

The barge charter has taken some pressure off and it's likely that they will be able to get a return from it going forward, especially it's back in active service, i believe that's encouraging.

The deeps, i believe they follow the 3AB model. They'll probably continue with the remedial work, the fracking on A8 etc and outsource A9 and any future licence commitments. I believe this is the key, a good partner who can help them flow that vital first deep.

Hopefully 154 delivers as that will give a boost and if horizontal drilling proves successful, who knows, MJF maybe better than we're thinking at this juncture. 3AB ? we're also going to know this year whether in or out.

The regulatory stuff needs sorting and Crude prices to stay above $70 with an increase in the domestic pricing.

In summary, plenty in the pipeline that can return this to double figures but that deep is crucial and my money is on A5/A8.

You've got me there, i don't see any listed ?

Whilst i'm in good spirits and it's POETS Day, thought i'd re-post the A5 flaring video for newbies who haven't seen it. Nothing like a little Friday mini ramp...lol

https://twitter.com/caspian_sunrise/status/931457952820711424?lang=en

Thank you IBYB.

I can also write the bearish note but i truly believe that this mob can turn things around. I want to see more transparency in their announcements eg the 70k debt paid from shares, who was the recipient ? The farm in partner for 3AB, who are they. By not including the detail, it just looks underhand which then leads to issues with trust, credibility leading go poor sentiment.

This isn't going under, it will trade through and as i see it, very little downside and plenty of upside, a risk worth taking in my book.

As stated, time to improve the communication, include the technical detail that makes sense, be more transparent and outline a clear strategy with a proper business plan that is deliverable. Not much to ask !

Easy to get down on Caspian, especially if you've been invested for some time. Minimal success since incorporation over 14 years now and so much promise. Back then it was Roxi Petroleum and the board had such high aspirations on IPO, launched @ 38p, shot to 70p in short order but the stock market crash and no success meant a crash to 1.5p in 2008 and has traded between that and 25p in 14 years, much of it between 6 and 14p.

Sadly i've lived through all of it and am still invested and i suppose that begs the question why ? Quite simply, i still see the upside that i first invested in back in 2007. Kazakhstan is one of the largest oil producing nations, has 3 of the largest producing fields and Tengiz is not far from the Caspian territory. The oil is there, the unsolved conundrum is extracting it commercially. As CC stated, it's taking more time than Tengiz, with all it's sulphur issues but i guess the investment levels were a tad skewed to give a fair comparison on timings ! The oil is there, the challenge as far as we know is heat and pressure and their inability to deal with it. They've made the statement on the 58km2, is that possible or is it BS ? We won't know until they flow one or two and do a CPR but one thing is for sure, there is oil in Kstan so why can't Caspian have a slice.

As we all know, they have 4 real assets discounting equip,ment.
- BNG deeps
- BNG Shallows
- 3AB
- CE

They've outsourced the 3AB initial spud, they've chartered the boat to cover costs and now they have the opportunity to prove up MJF/BNG deeps . Challenge there is funding but i guess we'll know more come 2020 FY results and i would like to see the same approach to the deeps ie involve a partner to inc spudding of A9.

I want to see Mr Shin's plans as if he was doing an Investor Presentation to clearly outline opportunity, plans and timings. As i see it, the upside that always has been in play, is still in play. I personally believe they're in a better position now than they were in 2014 with the A5 discovery and when the sp was 25p. Back then, the euphoria kicked in and the only difference as of today is that 6 years have passed without success and the glaze and any blue sky valuations have been eroded.

In addition, they now have shallow assets with MJF/SY and hopefully they can evidence that the FDP will deliver 4-6k bopd, obviously some doubts after recent wells and maybe horizontal drilling exploits more of the opportunity. They have 3AB, to be qualified in or out but 2 initial wells found water so i'd say the odds were against them. They have the Devonian to drill, they have the CE charter opportunity and probably more acreage purchasing opportunities if they can get themselves into a stronger financial position.

Sort the regulatory bits, build the relationship with the Tokayev regime and who knows what may happen going forward. All i know is that they have the assets to deliver healthy returns for all those invested but not without r

That’s a fact. Probably nuclear fusion will be the order of the day by the time they get there!

Mr Shin, time to share your plans as to how you’re going to convert consistent failure to glorious success.

They’re doing what they need to do. 3AB has sat idle for 3 years and maybe there’s pressure to spud the first well or pay penalties, lose licence ? 150m shares and $18m for the asset and I thought licence commitment was to drill to 3000m below Dunga ? Regardless, it’s a step in the right direction and I always thought the plan was to prove up and sell to Total but happy to be doing something g and hopefully the ROI will be higher than the $18m KO trousered !

Barge chartered and removes cost. Paltry sum but hopefully the start of lucrative contracts, we’ll have to wait til 2022.

Next steps to get outstanding regulatory bits sorted ASAP, release the well needed 300bopd from SY develop MJF and get a competent organisation in as a partner for the deeps.

14 years to date. How much longer to deliver a commercial result from a deep ?

I'm expecting revenue down but keen to see the cost cutting and what areas, especially director renumeration ! Also the true costs on the upkeep of the CE outside the $720k mooring fees. We'll know soon enough.

Good post Somm.

I don't believe that the 2020 FY results are going to be as bad as you think. I suppose the key 3 facts -;

1. Crude average price decline of 35% from $64-$42
2. Domestic price crash
3. SY shut in
4. Received export prices on MJF (60:40% ?) for full year v 3 months in 2019.

BOPY should be similar to 2019.

Yep, hopefully it’ll be a positive result following last couple of disappointments from MJF. Will also be good to understand if they’ve used the horizontal drilling on this well.

Crude above $70 and are we about to enter a new trading range ? Great news for Caspian and hopefully domestic oil prices up too.

FY results this month and we’re going to see the real numbers and the true financial position. Need to sort the regulatory bits and a really positive 154, that would be good and then get SY back on line in Q3.

All of the above will move the sp northwards but it’s the deep or CE rental that will be the catalyst to proper sp appreciation.

More upside than downside as I see it and I suspect The recent buys are from those who are buying the news run up, hopefully it’s good enough not hold not sell the news !

LSE won’t let me use peac#ck....lol

CC,

He’s never claimed to be technical, he’s a finance man with an unsuccessful track record. He was like a pea**** showing of his wares in 2017, the IP, the beauty parade and history has shown that most of the commentary was BS.

Interestingly, as I’m typing, LSE alert popped up stating, ‘ you should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money’ .....lol , a bit late for that now.

Still live in hope that our Mr Shin involves a partner who knows what they’re doing. Run with the lower cost projects but De-risk the costly ones and share the spoils .

We’re going to get down on Caspian when they issue announcements like the last one and don’t provide investors with the detail. All that did was raise concern that they can’t settle a tiny debt from cash flow, regardless of the real reason. As far as we know, the beneficiary may have wanted stock as to take it in equity and with that poor RNS was always going to end in an sp retrace and loss of dough !!

By my maths, they should be absolutely fine unless they’ve lied about the net backs. Won’t be long for fy accounts and a report on progress in 2021 ytd. If they’ve lied, Carver will have to go and I and others will be pushing for that .

The oil is there, the upside in play but does KO and his team have the ability and access to funding to unlock it, to date it’s a resounding no.

Yep, the leadership team don't much care about the PI, a different story from the early days but that's what happens when you have KO, family and associates with an unhealthy stake and no institutional investors. PIs used to own c 17% of the SI but that has been diluted with CE, 3AB and the rig acquisition and we're extras in this game.

Publishing exit prices...lol If the sp multibags from here, it will be for a significant reason as waiting for MJF to materialise isn't going to give the sizzle, well not for me anyway. Not knocking MJF as that could give a bag or 3 but when the sp has traded above 10p for years, many investors are still underwater. We need to see a commercial deep and if that happens, people won't be selling, they'll re-evaluate and probably invest more if the foundations and fundamentals are credible.

Time to see Mr Shin's real plans, the how and when to deliver the results that his predecessors haven't. They're going to need cash so keen to see the strategy re funding as doing it from MJF cashflow will take years.

UC, unfortunately it will take more than shallow success to get the price back to the double figure range. They’re other assets have to deliver and even then, they will probably need support from a partner, the other option is equity dilution. I’d much rather share a successful deep than have 100% of zip.

154, SY prod licence and a positive appeal outcome will definitely give the sp a boost but we’re only going to see a multi bag performance from deeps, 3AB or CE.

Badgernator,

Don’t know what’s wrong with them, just damaging sentiment. The share beneficiary has lost money if the intention was to sell stock ? or as stated, they may have sold stock pre this allocation ? Just poor management and I for one want to see management change but unfortunately we are but mere pawns in the game.

Uncertain,

Much that I still see this as a buy, I won’t be polite when criticism is due and I will tell the leadership team as I see it, we all should. That RNS was another own goal from a PR perspective and the selling has been insignificant at £10k but has damaged sentiment , they never learn !

The one thing that keeps me in here is the fact that KO won’t want to let this go without a fight, especially when his family and chums are all in the game. Not saying he can’t fail but it’s always good to have a leader with skin in the game and private or sale aren’t options.

I don’t agree. If they were to raise it would be another £1m, only reason for not doing that is they can’t or don’t need to. They’re managing the $1m or so quarterly charge from BNG and CE , continuing with operational tasks albeit at a slower pace ,without diluting further so I suspect they’re more than managing. If you do the sums v 2019, they’re generating or should be generating far more revenue as a result of prod licence which more than offsets the additional costs.

I don’t like the lack of transparency and by communicating without detail, it only raises suspicion. The accounts will tell a story and maybe they’ve had to pay oil trader debt but I don’t believe so but the change in payment terms has obviously hurt.

One thing is for sure, they need to get a positive resolution on appeal and convert a few more shallows. If CE is going to earn its keep, sell it and focus on what they can affect.

SY delay to September also points to the fact that regulatory issues are behind as why would you keep oil shut in and not earn tax ?

One thing is for sure, they can’t meet new licence commitments on deeps without additional revenue from somewhere and that has to be partnering if income not forthcoming from CE , BNG appeal or SY.

As always, time will tell.

As you say, accounts will expose the facts. It’s odd that they’d issue shares at a strike price of 2.35p ,exercisable from 18/5, surely knowing that price would recede a little ? The amount is insignificant but why not disclose the creditor ? not doing so causes suspicion and all for a piddling £70k . The increase in domestic prices is putting £90k pm in the bank. Creditor probably has shares and sold them already and this was a little top up, doh.

CC,
Yep, different opinions on some things but if they wanted more cash they could easily pull off another little fundraiser to keep the show going. My sums show more than enough cash and continuing to do operational work does not smack off being on the bread line. Kuat probably out on a bender, drinking to much Koumiss and done his lot on poker.

Anybody with a shareholding in Casper should write to the leadership and ask what the debt was for, we have a right to know. If they don't respond, write to the Nomad, LSE etc. They are not above the rules and more transparency needed, that and Carver's P45, LONG OVERDUE !