Member Info for KumKuat

Not cheerleading Mr C. I suppose the comment was a litle tongue in cheek. My strategy is buy and hold but over 14 years i've obviously bought and sold dependant on risk but the strategy has always been to stay in to see the deep conclusion, good or bad.

With regards to short term sp appreciation, say Q3 ? 154 result is important as it validates the MJF story ie each well delivering c 200bopd average. Also has horizontal; drilling made a difference ? SY award, that's also important and i believe those 2 developments will drive sentiment and sp. With regards to real sp appreciation, that can only come from the deeps and 3AB this year but until we see Mr Shin's plan and timelines, i can't answer that question but hopefully investors will ask the right questions come AGM.

I'm hoping that they can frack A8 and sidetrack A5 as a minimum this year and announce an A9 partner and plans for the Devonian, all questions for the board.

CC,

You know your stuff and the difference between us is our trading approach. I rarely trade it and that's not been a sensible strategy if i look at the current position but i have been fortunate enough to load up recently. Regardless of my holding, i'll say it as it is and have been consistent in that approach. Many would think are you mad, criticising a stock that you hold in volume ? Quite simply, i still see the upside and if the sp crashes as it has done, there's the opportunity to average down and you've done that over and over, that's well documented.

I'm not a fan of the management as the communication is poor and that needs to change, that is definitely an ask for shareholder questions. No more Carverspeak and as per your post below, yep, that's Clive all over, plenty of room for manoeuvre, this has to change. Clear, concise, and technically accurate. No more spanner, packed lunch, well flowed @ 1500 barrels of WHAT !, 1300 bopd capacity, etc. Time to respect the retail investor as without them, this sp isn't going anywhere. We dictate the share price not the Kazakhs, they're sitting back waiting for a miracle.

We could cause all sorts of mischief for the leadership team by highlighting many of the historic misdemeanours to Nomads, get Mr Levy involved and some guerilla tactics but hopefully that's not needed. As i said, it's every serious shareholders responsibility to ask questions and use the forum available. We need a clear plan and transparency going forward if they really want to incentivise the shareholder base but they need good news to do that.

Happy with my recent purchases, average price now acceptable although still underwater but still see the upside.

Un,

Yep, i agree re services business who were contractors. $0.7m doesn't make sense unless they've paid off debt. I'm expecting to see a profitable set of accounts for H1 and even more profitable in H2 providing SY agreed and some production volume increases at MJF.

Like TYR, i like the abbreviation as i can't spell ! i hold a considerable no of shares, c 7.4m at this time and was considering increasing further but waiting for 154 news and willing to pay a little more if horizontal drilling a success and that the 4-6k field is realistic or not. I have held since IPO and i want to see the deep program succeed so what's another year or 2 !!

CC,

Yep, there is an obvious risk on licence commitments and as i understand it today, it's delay with penalties or drill. They can't drill A9 and direction is via a partner. Even 3AB needs licence awarded before new drilling partner can start work. Also SY, the delay is being blamed on Covid but we'll know whether there are regulatory issues if they don't award it.

The above are things that need consideration and are all risks, to say otherwise is not a pragmatic approach to investing. We can't make a judgement call until the info is in the public domain and that's why it's important for all shareholders to ask questions pre AGM and we all have that opportunity.

1. Why has head count almost trebled in 2020 FY accounts ?
2. Who is the the new partner at 3AB
3. When is fracking going to commence @ A8 and side-track @ A5
4. Are you going to deliver a new Investor Presentation this qtr
5. Is Mr Shin going to detail the operational strategy and articulate how he's going to turn success into failure. I'd like to see far more technical data and transparency in operational RNSs
6. What are the current netbacks from international/domestic crude
7. Why is there only 0.7m in the bank at end of H1 2021. Looking at revenue generation based on 1300bopd $70+ international and $18 domestic, also factoring in FY20 reduced cost base, i'd have expected to see a far stronger cash position and would like to understand the reasons why.
8. Losing the BNG appeal was a huge disappointment. Has the relationship with the Kaz authorities deteriorated ? Is there a risk that licences could be withdrawn. What are the penalty charges for delays ?
9. Are you likely to contract with a partner on A9 before winter sets in ?

There are loads of questions but the most important answer i want to see is Shin's operational plan and the detail to deliver success on the deeps. Current issues and the plan to resolve and deliver success. We all know that A5 flowed with gusto so the oil is there so how are they going to resolve the mud/heat/pressure issue and stop the endless drain of cash.

They haven't diluted the investor base to death, that's the last straw in my book and i believe they can continue to fund shallow drilling and remedial deep work providing MJF delivers at current levels and SY back online. They'll engage partner on the new deeps but if not possible, they'll delay and pay penalties until one can be found. If not, then licence at risk or they have to dilute in volume, something that would be a last resort OR possibly sell the barge.

Plenty of upside from here but not without risk.

Ah, forgot, need to find a partner for future deeps.

MJF is the cash cow and latest update indicated 1300bopd ‘capacity’ . Last ops update in April advised 1332bopd for q1 so if we were to extrapolate for full year that would be c 486k. That’s a 10% decline yoy but we know that will decline further without successful new wells, work overs and horizontal drilling. 154 result is important after poor recent results and after a few more wells we’re going to know if MJF is a 4/5k producer or not. They need SY back online and to drill more there too. The sizzle comes from a positive 3AB result and a deep this year possibly but I’m not holding my breath. I am hopeful of a commercial barge contract but that’s 2022. In the interim, build shallow production, add SY and 2021 financials don’t look too shabby.

I’ve got a few questions for Clive ready for the AGM ??

CC,

I can't disagree that they could've gone pop and the cash drain was worse than i anticipated. Easy to look back but important you look at the numbers in 2020 v a far rosier picture now.

Facts/assumptions
2019 average crude $64 v $42 in 2020 - 35% decrease
2020 total production - 545,667
Export/Domestic sales 57.5%/42.5%
Exported barrels - 313,758 / domestic 231,908

Domestic market operating at a loss and the international average crude price was 35% reduced. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that they were probably losing $20 per barrel (netbacks) at least and if you multiply that by 313,758, that's $6.275m revenue. Add to that the domestic loss and you can see where the cash has gone BUT that was 2020. Turnover rose by 18% to $14.3m, no mean feat and according to my maths, that could've been a $20m+ year. Add in SY which is largely export then $24m, we're not going pop !

We'll have the opportunity to ask questions pre AGM so let's make sure there are some good ones. Employees have gone up hugely but wages similar, that's probably a result of contractors being converted to permanent but on low salaries ? a question to ask. Cash is only 0.7m currently, i'd have expected it to be more for H1 so have they paid off more debt etc or has production fallen off a cliff in last 2 months ?

We're not going to get rich from MJF but there is sp appreciation if they develop field as originally planned. The real sp appreciation comes from the deeps. Yep, 3AB could be a winner but i'm not convinced and the barge will be a good cash generator if they charter it for drilling projects.

Still maintain KO has to make this work and he'll do all he can to ensure it's survival.

I believe it was desperate in mid 2020 and if oil price had not recovered, yep it would have probably gone pop but I still believe Kyat would’ve found a funding route albeit hugely dilutive.

Re Kaz authorities and changes under Tokayev, I say that’s probably a yes as they are certainly not supportive and SY licence delay shows that.

IF is also the case but I suppose that’s the case with any exploration company. I believe they keep it going and have enough irons in the fire to do so but the real prize comes from the deeps and that conundrum is still to be resolved, hello Mr Shin ??

Some investors decided to leave the party today, understandable as the news was never going to be great. I'm not dumping, actually considering adding a few but will see what transpires over next day or so.

My take for what it's worth. Caspian not going pop unless crude crashed below $54 and as stated, i believe they will still fund the business through equity/debt and KO as the backstop. They are running on fumes with the additional $3.2m annual BNG charge but hopefully 154 with horizontal drilling success adds production/revenue and SY licence awarded in Q3. SY alone delivers 105k bopy and most of that is to be sold at export prices, i believe c 90% but i can't find it online or in my notes. If that is the case, revenues will increase by c $4.8m pa, that in itself sorts the cash flow. 3AB result, we wait but its going to be qualified in or out. The barge, covering costs and a possibility of profitable commercial contracts IF exploration resumes in the N Caspian shallows. The real appreciation as has been the case since drilling started in 2013, is the deeps. They can't fund this from MJF or SY proceeds and a Partner to be sourced but they will probably be able to drill Devonian and do the fracking and remedial work on existing deeps.

I was hoping to see or am hoping to see Mr Shin pop his head above the parapet and advise how we're going to turn failute into success. His KNOC relationship ? who knows but Kuat Oraziman will not let the deep opportunity go unless oil crashed below $54 for a protracted period and then the 'going concern' would be an issue, even then they could sell the barge possibly.

I do see the risks too. The appeal failure show the Kaz authorities are not budging and obviously want the cash. 3AB licence also to be agreed before partner can drill and SY dragging. Also MJF decline but we'll know more there soon and they will continue to drill and utilise the horizontal techniques to exploit more opportunity, ah yes and the Oil price crashing as a result of Covid wave 10 !!

Still enough in the pot to give a healthy return from here but the deeps as always are the key to huge sp appreciation.

Afternoon CC,

Having a manic day today, always the case when Caspian issues news. I've scanned the FY accounts but not in detail yet.

It was a strange statement on MJF, badly worded and suggests that no further drilling, i don't believe that to be the case, it's the cash cow that needs continued development. They've got the $800k cost til 2029 so no other charges for any other discoveries on the estate. I have contacted Clive to advise that the statement was badly worded and for some clarification.

They're not going skint unless oil drops below $54 and even then, the decision will be to fund which will obviously be dilutive. What is evident, 2020 did hurt as cash position declined from $4.1m to $0.3m, largely as a result of an average international oil price of $42 and domestic at $6.

Some investors are disappointed, i'm not and they've traded through a very difficult time. The key info i've gleaned but not looked at the numbers yet.
Financial
Rev increased, no mean feat and that's without SY
Oil prices now @ $75 and domestic increased to $18
Current cash at $0.7m
Operational
154 being cased and first horizontal well, results out soon
No work on deeps
SY waiting for licence award this qtr - Q3
3AB outsourced
Barge costs covered and contract may lead to others

Yes, i did note 1300bopd capacity on MJF and waiting to see real numbers. Not going pop imo and will continue drilling on MJF and remedial work on existing deeps and outsource the rest. I've published the SY revenues based on new oil prices which would deliver an annual profit so not going skint.

I'm mildly encouraged and the only thing i'm disappointed about is the BNG charge but it's done and there should be no other charges on other discoveries.

Only at Caspian, almost 4m traded and then zip...lol. People buying the news and as far as i can see, not dumping, yet ! and hopefully there won't be a need to do so. Caspian need to reinvigorate the retail investor as they are the ones that are actively trading the stock, without them, this will just continue to wallow in the current trading range. Only way they can do that is by having something positive to communicate and outline their strategy/plan for success.

Yes, i'd agree with that. A punt pre news for me and i'm expecting a sell off but conversely, i'm very happy for it to be news even if its a successfully 154 @ 250bopd+. We're used to disappointment but i really believe the bottom is in and the biggest risk ie going pop, is very unlikely.

C'mon Clive, let's get 2020s out of the way and talk about how things are going to improve for all invested (-:

Bid strengthening in line with recent purchases. 2.67p up to 750k, 2.5813 to 900k. Another little tick up coming so if it is a pumper, the buyer(s) will soon be in the money but no cigar, yet !

CC, oddly the same thought crossed my mind.

Awax, a fair point but i suspect most people who post on this BB have enough shares. I suppose there's never enough when the share price is moving north and the ' why didn't i buy more' is in play. No ramp intended but if they did have success at a deep, those investors who know the stock well enough will know the value and probably be able to buy before the thundering herd arrive on the scene. Yep, probably pay a little more but will have the peace of mind that fundamental case is much stronger and future sp appreciation very likely.

Typo, should read 1.3m but hey, the right news and that'll be a walk in the park.

With 13m purchased this morning, i would've expected the bid to be stronger. Healthy @ 2.615p for 650k but i'd have thought that 7 figures would've been achievable which could suggests the little buying spree is done. 800k purchased below the current ask @ circa 2.56p so hardly making a fortune if sold now and the other 500k is out of the money by some way. Any P&D needs buyers and momentum but as stated already, many are less gullible or should i say, far wiser to such tactics.

i do believe we've turned a corner and there's a higher probability of sp appreciation than depreciation and down to Caspian to deliver the right news to strengthen those fundamentals.

All possible Ibyb. If this is a little P&D exercise pre news, there is less buy in to it as it has happened several times before and punters are a little wiser. Let's hope that buying is as a result of imminent good news but history has taught us not to get ahead of ourselves !

Regardless of news, the barge rental and 3AB were positive developments and maybe they can get the farm in deal for A9, reduce costs and share spoils. Maybe even get a clear operational plan from our Mr Shin.

How many times have i seen the pre news buying followed by the inevitable dump. Different this time ? we'll know soon enough.

So every post is a ramp....lol. i'm going to be a promotion contender at this rate.

It's very boring currently but enough in the pipe to deliver sp appreciation and some profitability for the long suffering long termers, actually not true as you have to cash it it in to realise it so always a paper profit.

Whilst i'm in ramp mode, only takes one deep to get us back to double figures and who knows what's going on at A8. Ramp over, back to sleep.

Only 9th ! must do better.

Never will be a de-ramper as am long on stock and don’t have an agenda to mislead others when I want to buy sell. I get the hump with the leadership but after Years of disappointment I think that’s acceptable. Simple agenda, invested to see so appreciation but that’s not saying I don’t sell if I see risk and add when I believe there’s more opportunity.

Ramping a stock when little to ramp about is futile and waiting for the repeat of that 2014 moment when all hell breaks loose, hopefully this time, it’s real ??