Member Info for KumKuat

RitchyP,

They want the sp up, that’s a fact and that’s where they get their payday not through Divis regardless of % holding. They’re value comes from proving BNG up and by doing that so will appreciate. I don’t believe the Tokayev regime will want lifestyle businesses on lucrative acreages, they’d end up losing their licences.

For the first time, they’re going for it ie qualifying their assets, in or out. Almost feels like their under pressure to retain them and paying penalty charges not an option anymore ? 802 spud, Devonian poke at a time when they’re not rolling in it. Are they at risk of not having exploration licence renewed. Regardless, sp appreciation = m/cap increase and a valuable asset to move on at some juncture,

CC,

If a deep flows, they have a problem as they don’t have enough storage to handle current volume , especially with an additional 645bopd. Tankers can’t be the answer so pipeline and additional cost ?

Un,

Not disagreeing with MJF wells funding the deeps, support that strategy but you won't see 15p from MJF based on their projections of a 24 well FDP and say 6kbopd. Great revenue and enables them to fund the deeps and the the first commercial success (IF) will open the flood gates, that's after a successful 30 day flow test and NO Carverspeak.

A successful, 153 ST and SY licence will push SP higher and they'll probably throw in their first HD well at SY following award. There will be a buzz from the Devonian drill and probability of success against us but it needs qualifying out, just hoping no delays because of dust ? etc. Q3 will be busy and that's good news for Caspian investors providing news is positive.

Revenue is one thing Un but P numbers are everything. Each deep is probably x6 the size of MJF without proving the connectivity conundrum and proving the 58km2 statement. I’m pro getting the shallow production revenues growing as it facilitates the deep journey, good or bad. Shallows on a few bags at best, deeps are where they get on the investor radar .

Edit- Should state ‘proving up’ not pricing up

Have they ever paid a Divi, that did make me laugh. Nope, not our Roxi Petroleum and the idea was introduced by Kuat and not a bad one when the family own almost 50% of the total shabang .

Lots of ramping following the update and blue sky valuations but there needs to be more pricing up done before wild NAV predictions can be realised. I want the share price up as much as the next person but even 10p sets us at 220m m/cap. Can it go much higher, yep but that’s only coming from the deeps inc Devonian, the shallows won’t give us the rapid sp appreciation. 3AB success and sale will help considerably but the big ones are the deeps or taking a % stake in an offshore play by trading the barge rental for a ticket to ride.

SP will rise from the impending shallow drills and I see no reason why 153 will not deliver a similar result to 154 and hopefully the same from SY.

Next few months will be busy with short term material news coming from 153 and SY licence. This followed by A8 and maybe updates on the journey to TD in October. 802 also spudded and the commentary with that. Also A5 sidetrack but history shows that there will be delays, winter weather interruptions etc but we’re in a far better place than we were in Q2 2020 !

Low risk, high return, results will drive the magnitude.

We’ll, that was disappointing. Uploaded 10 questions and only one answered so the upload process obviously didn’t work. Did anybody else not have questions answered ??

Questions are answered but only a few, surely there are more. I asked 10 questions and obviously not uploaded properly !! Disappointing.

Contd

then surely the deep game is over and the remaining lucrative assets will be 3AB and barge.

As I said money to be made here just from shallows but the real money comes from the deeps as it always has. I’m all in and believe I make money regardless of the deeps and I maintain it’s a low risk punt from these levels, the gravity of that success is largely dependant on the deeps.

Financial position improving
Domestic oil prices
Shallow drilling . 154 a great result and Horizontal way forward. New well from 153 to take less than a month which is good news. Will probably do the same with Yelemes when licence approved
Oil trader debt almost paid off and more of production to be sold as export - need more detail
Debt free with KO exchanging for stock above market price
Ownership of drilling rigs means far lower cost of drilling and avoid delays. New work over rig enables other rigs to focus on HDrilling.
Divis - I’d rather them focus on conserving cash
Oraziman family tax planning all finished and KO no longer a shareholder
A8 to the Devonian this month and TD in October.
802 spud in Sept
A5 sidetrack in Oct providing the elusive drill pipes available. They need to buy more !

Negatives
Deeps currently dead and still no detail. ‘Work so far this year on the existing 4 deeps has not resulted in any material oil flows’ What work ? where’s the detail ? Did they frack A8 hence they dust in the well ? Hopefully shareholder questions gives some answers here. Personally, I believe A6 and A8 will be P&Ad and the main opportunity remains A5, maybe 801. The fact they’re drilling on from A8 suggests that fracking failed so need to have detail.

Barge charter over so will become a cost again. Positive and negative as fee received more than covered costs since acquisition but yet again more detail required ie how much did they get !

No partner for deeps

3AB - not really a negative but with the new operator to sort licence

In summary, they have turned a corner and seem to be going for it. Looks like the shallow wells will fund the deeps but currently they look terminal to me with A5 still the best chance. Still continuing with the deep program and 802 a cheaper drill and the $5m matches the Bicotender info. If they fail at 802 I believe they should call it a day as after 5 wells, they need to drop the FOMO. One more sidetrack at A5 or maybe one more vertical but enough is enough if they can’t get them to flow and get a partner in or flog the licence. Good to see A8 to the Devonian and we’ll know whether that’s in our out but I believe the drilling will be difficult, only time will tell. 3AB, we’re waiting to know our fate there too but at least they’re being proactive re qualifying in or out.

Everything I want to happen is happening now after a tough year and I believe the 154 result has enabled them to accelerate the operational schedule. We’re going to know in the not too distant whether Caspian is a bit player in the shallow drilling arena or whether the deeps are in play. Still upside from MJF and Yelemes structures but I’m here to see successful deeps and after 14 years maybe that journey is finally coming to an end. As I see it, 3 more chances for the deeps. Qualify the Devonian in or out, sidetrack A5 one more time and drill 802. If no success at any, then surely the deep game is over and the remaini

The last IP below details all the wells.

https://www.caspiansunrise.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Caspian-presentation-Feb-2018-290118.pdf

Just been trying to find it by going through my posts, god, that’s an arduous process. I’ll find it but it was in the 2020 SQs and I may have taken a copy.

Un,

Taxation fixed, transportation variable, obviously dependant on volume. I have the % s somewhere if you want them.

Un,

Gross revenues agreed but net backs from $70 gross was $45 and Clive did give the split in transportation/tax etc as I asked the question. I have detailed it on one of my posts I believe , see if I can find it.

Cc,

Agreed. Font spend any money on the deeps but I suspect that will depend on getting an interested partner. They were in a weak negotiating position at 1300bopd but the additional 945 ish barrels plus another horizontal gives them options. Drilling a deep and failing is crazy and sets them back. Get a partner in and share the spoils after 8 years of failure.

Un,

Much that I want to , I couldn’t get to your revenue and profit numbers. Current recent in 2021 will have declined with MJF depletion, c1300bopd capacity . Also stating that most of the production could be sold at export prices do that could be any number from 51%. If you took the 1300bopd plus the 645 as current ,added SY from October , a 70:30 split on all using $45 snd $13 net backs. Doesn’t get to your numbers ?

CC,

They know the shallows won’t give them them the sp appreciation they want, that comes from the deeps and the exploration phase of the licence has 4 years to go although I suspect they’ll be able to extend but nothing guaranteed. Currently spending all the shallow cash on the deep money pit so our Mr Shin needs to articulate why and how he’s going to turn it into a success.

Also, the Bico tender sum for 802 was 2000,000, 000 which is c$4.6m so not enough for a deep drill and I can’t believe Caspian are going 50:50 as they need to spend current cash on shallows to build reserves.

Un,

Still see oil bouncing again and having another go at $80 this quarter. So many variables in play, nobody can accurately call the trend.

We’ll get an RNS pre SQ’s but I suspect that there won’t be knew stuff. At least 2 of my questions ask for stuff not in the public domain so they need to get it out there if they’re to answer them. There’s not much going on operationally so I’m not expecting any new developments not even SY which I believe will be later in Q3. 802 ? That was meant to be drilled pre end of 2018 but the recent Bico tender doc suggests they’re tendering now but we know they haven’t got the available financial resources to go it alone, same with A9. Need a partner for the whole deep program and hoping Shin has some influence there.

No new news for me, just clarification for the SQ session but as always, happy to be proved wrong.

Yep. For fun i just added another 33k, i have far too many already but i really do feel that we're about to break this current trading range, hopefully northwards. They've taken the SQs seriously so that in itself is a positive but hopefully the answers will be clear and concise with a positive spin. If they issue an RNS then i hope it's worthy of it's publication.