Member Info for KumKuat

Somm,

I’d agree with you if the $32m had to paid immediately or the current balance of c $20m. It’s a charge at $250k pm and not a debt that has to be paid. They’re in a better position now than they were when sp was 14p and the oil price average is likely to be comparable or higher than in 2019.

Regardless, we now need a great result on 153 pre the interims.

Bull,

Yep and a load of buys yet bid the same at 2.9099 and max 150k sell. Must be a decent sell order as the price would be up today but as usual, we're in the dark...lol.

Very odd market. I have Interactive Investor showing a 3-3.1p spread but market is 2.9909 sell/2.9999 buy and i've just added 50k to test it. That's a very tight spread !!

News this week or they're going to include in the Interims, hopefully the former and it's positive. Including in an operational update from 1/7-?/9 would be disappointing so hopefully 2 announcements, both positive.

The sp has crashed from 14p in 2019 to 1.5p as Covid hit, an 86% decline but are we in a better position now than then ? Oil production was only averaging c 1350bopd so why the massive crash. 12% dilution from 2019 but we've added 3AB, some rigs and old Boaty. We are currently at c 1900bopd with SY and hopefully 153 to add so production could be more than 50% higher than 2019 average, the NAV is much higher and balance sheet far healthier. We have no debt and are now self funding for most of the operational targets planned. Key reason for the 86% decline ? probably the loss of hope on the deep program after the A8 result ? maybe the Boaty deal which i know was the last straw for some investors, maybe the poor communication and lack of trust which has damaged credibility and sentiment.

One thing i do know, it's worth far more than current sp providing they continue to build production at MJF and hopefully do the same with the SY structure. Should be no more dilution and hopefully KO's debt for share deal is the signal that things are about to improve. To say that he's committed is an understatement, the KO clan and Concert Party are 'All In' and every 1p increment is worth $1.4m to the Oraziman family !!

Pleas don't disappoint Clive and hopefully those ducks are actually going to be knocked over, at last !

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/08/29/business/kazakhstan-oil-tengiz-chevron.amp.html

It’s been going a long time but the scale of the Tengiz project is immense and getting bigger. Their 40 year licence is up in 2023 and will be interested how Tokayev’s more authoritarian rule affects negotiations.

Kaz is an oil rich country and Caspian have to bring in the resources to deliver the black stuff as it currently isn’t working. A blow out is not an option but they need to change their approach. Running out of time on exploration phase and not enough money to pay for the right kit and maybe expertise. Doing it on a shoestring and disappointed that they’ve not been able to attract a farm in partner.

Maybe the persistence with Ablock , especially A5 wil led to that first commercial well and then the confirmation that it’s commercial will attract the right partner ?

Devonian is a long shot, success would be game changing but as we know, finding it is one challenge, flowing it, another.

CC,

Yes, much more powerful rigs used on land. Tengiz rigs capable of 30-40k feet and something has to change. Overbalanced drilling isn’t working so surely there’s a way of managing the heat/pressure with lighter fluids but avoiding the disastrous blow out and losing the well. Got to change as currently it’s a painful waste of time and money !

Haven’t looked back but thought 801 was Sinopec rig and team.

They have to change something as opposed to continuing to throw millions of hard earned tenge down the drain or well !

Cc,

But Sinopec have been involved in 2. 801 first then A block and no success, flipping frustrating.

Badge,

Yep, why would you ?

Yep Bull and the communication would be a little clear. The commentary on clearing the dust and checking for oil flows was a cracker...lol. I think they might have noticed 2000bopd flowing or maybe the dust was stopping it sneaking into the well.

I believe that oil at this level is never going to flow unless they use non heavy mud techniques as it's madness to do the same thing repeatedly and expect a different outcome. They'll continue with A5 but yet again, that'll be sidetrack 3 or 4, i've lost account but same thing applies. They know A5 flowed so they will persist and if they did crack that by some miracle then they would probably do the same with A8.

Last 2 communications below. As usual, plenty of obfuscation and never the clarity we need. Planning to frack but no announcement that they had started. Stated that if fraccing unsuccessful they'd drill on as per Aug RNS but worded really badly. As always, mushroom policy applies.

From June Finals
'Our intention is to fracture and complete the well at the current 4,500 meter depth. In the event this does not result in commercial quantities of oil we plan to drill a further 800 meters to the original Devonian target at a depth of 5,300 meters'

6th Aug RNS
Also in August 2021, we plan to re-commence drilling A8 from the current 4,500 meter depth to the original planned depth of 5,300 meters, targeting a possible structure the Devonian. This drilling work is expected to take approximately two months and will be undertaken using our G40 rig. However, we are first clearing a large quantity of dust from the well before drilling recommences to check for oil flows at the current 4,500 meter depth.

Some,

Interims will be out next week so is he waiting to include next Ops update then, I hope not.

If they were flow testing A8, then that would be mega unprofessional as they have not stated that they’ve done the fracking, just drilling on to the Devonian. Can’t flow A8 and then drill on, that’s not possible. It was a very odd statement to make, check flow rates , why ? Clive is very good at making mistakes on technical commentary.

Lots to report on and hopefully news pre Interims as it’s easy to hide poor news and mitigate its effect, a bit like the loss of the BNG appeal that was popped into the Finals as opposed to a separate RNS. $32m was pretty material but they made light of it but hey, we know how they roll.

It's flipping boring currently across my portfolio of stocks. Had a bit of excitement on Vistry (VTY) yesterday before being sold off in style. One of my boring divi plays but has had some decent capital appreciation too.

As always the sp will be guided by material news so what's next. The volume has fallen off a cliff and i'd have expected to see more action pre next announcement, actually thought we'd have far more selling so the lack of the red stuff i'd say was encouraging.

So where is the sp going from here ? Worst case would be that 154 production has depleted substantially and 153 a failure. That would see us retreat to the low 2ps and damage confidence re shallow potential. Has to be a consideration but hopefully that scenario is unlikely and the reverse applies and 153 emulating 154, we're then through 4 or even 5p with all the other projects in play that could dramatically affect the share price.

Many of us are loaded up, many are probably waiting for confirmation before entering the game and hoping that the price reaction is not to positive so they can get in as cheaply as poss. Still on a knife edge and much that the shallows are only going to give us 2 or 3 bags, possibly more if SY horizontal a success, we still need confirmation and 154/153 are the POC needed.

A positive result and hype will kick in, the only headwinds being the recent share recipients but i'm hoping that they see that the investment is largely risk free if shallows succeed.

Mike,
Yep, vuggy was there and the commentary was relentless as cores were taken every few days building the excitement and hype. As we know, 2-26p in short order on one discovery ! so shows what a little success can do.

Sadly, nothing to show for 6 years of drilling (excluding 2020/21) and yet they're continuing although the next to assaults are in the Devonian and only remedial at the 4300-4450m horizons. They still believe A5 is their best chance followed by A8 but they won't be 5k producers, probably 2000bopd. Just one to flow would open the flood gates and we can look forward to the much needed P1/2 numbers.

Making us wait for 153 and it's about time that Casper had a good run but nothing guaranteed in this game.

Yep, the definition of Caspian madness.

All the euphoria from A5 and A8 re oil soaked cores and nothing to show for it. We know A5 flowed and the flaring video has shown that the oil is there but no good if they're using very heavy mud that will only give one result, a blocked reservoir ?? Got to go underbalanced but as we know. they have to manage the blow out risk, hopefully Mr Shin has the answer.

Good to see a little 343k buy at the close. News tomorrow or Thursday maybe ?

Somm,

And finally, the paragraph from the 2019 Interims stating that oil flowed at 400 litres per hour and on a 24 hour shift, that equates to 60bopd...lol. I did qualify this out and quite simply, it was a mixture of oil, mud and water. After all the hype, sadly for all investors. they came up empty handed.
'On 12 September 2019, we announced that oil together with drilling mud was flowing at the rate of 400 litres per hour. However, it will not be until the drilling mud is completely removed that we are able to publish reliable production estimates.'

Next RNS was even more bullish with 52m of the 159m interval being described as porous and SATURATED WITH OIL. Alas, nothing to show for it. They're operating in an overbalanced set up with barite heavy mud to avoid blow out risk, surely it's time to have a go underbalanced and avoid losing the drilling mud into the reservoir formation.

On 7 June 2019, we announced the interval of interest extends 110 meters from a depth of 4,346 meters. Since that date we have drilled to a depth of 4,520 meters, below the intended casing point, as the drilling revealed the identified interval extends further than previously detected, with oil bearing rock present to depth of 4,501 meters, an interval of 155 meters, based principally on core samples.

Using more detailed and reliable wireline logging across the full depth of the interval, we now understand the interval identified extends from a start point of 4,342 meters to a depth of 4,501 meters, in total 159 meters, of which 52.2 meters is porous, oil saturated rock. We had previously reported our estimation that the surface area for the identified interval extends across the full 58km2 of the Airshagyl structure. Casing is now being run to a depth of 4,520 meters, where it will be set and cemented, following which we intend to continue to drill towards the next expected interval of interest believed to be at a depth of approximately 5,200 meters.
The planned Total Depth of the well remains for the present at 5,300 meters, which we expect to reach by the end of August 2019.

Back to A8. The commentary on A8 almost mirrored A5 and led to the 58km2 statement. 110m column, good oil cut, porous dolomitic limestone, strong gas shows and zippo to show for it. The oil is there but i'd like to understand more from Mr Shin. They are progressing with the Barite mud in an overbalanced position to avoid blow outs but surely a risk needs to be taken in an underbalanced process to see if they can avoid losing the drilling fluid into the reservoir and blocking up the structure.

With the top of the oil-bearing interval at a depth of 4,346 meters and the bottom of the most recent core sample at a depth of 4,456 meters the oil-bearing interval now extends to 110 meters. We plan to resume drilling for an additional 40 meters before conducting a full wireline analysis over the whole 110 meter oil-bearing interval before casing the well to a depth of 4,500 meters. Our seismic information indicates there are potential further intervals of interest. We hope to encounter the next at around a depth below 4,500 meters.
We continue to expect reaching the planned total depth of 5,300 meters before the end of Q3 2019.

Clive Carver, Executive Chairman commented.

"We are clearly very pleased with the results from Deep Well A8. We now know that the potential oil-bearing interval extends to 110 meters, which is consistent with our expectations and the corresponds to the interval previously identified at Deep Well A5.

We continue to believe that this interval extends across the full 58km2 of the Airsghagyl structure. The correlation between our 3D seismic information and what we have to date encountered in drilling Deep Well A8, increases our level of confidence of finding other significant intervals."

Clive will be busily drafting his commentary for the H1 interim statement and hopefully he's got plenty to write positively about. Interims have been released on 17/18/9 in last 2 years and much that the period under review is up to 30/6, the Chairman's statement will include operational activity to date. 154 result has taken the company into the black and another result from 153 with a SY licence award would be very good news and should make good reading. Much that the return to profitability is not in H1, i suspect that a lot of emphasis will be on profitability and hopefully some detail re accelerating future infill drilling and timetable for all the other activities.

Somm,

You know what obfuscation is and that's what our Chairman is very good at and hence the term 'Carverspeak'. As i stated earlier, the 1500 bopd should've stated bMpd or a mixture of water, oil and mud. I have asked the question, how long did it flow for but as CC has already explained that. I'd love to agree with you but that misleading statement was the last straw for a few long term investors that i know personally, that and the CE deal. You can also look back at shareholder questions in 2020 where the question was asked on A8 and the answer was NO oil had flowed.

They also said they were going to frack A8, i asked the question as to which contractor was going to be used and when but it seems to have slipped CCs mind.

I do find the last statement weird re checking oil flows before drilling resumes so let's hope that your assessment is correct, they've fracced it and it's a gusher. Maybe that's why KO decided it was time to convert but i very much doubt it.

It is a big month for Caspian and the trading shows that most investors are sticking with it to see the next update.

The A8 statement was truly bizarre and i have written to qualify it out but no response to date. Planning to drill on to the Devonian but clearing dust and checking for oil flows.....lol, you couldn't make it up ! Checking for oil flows ? i think they'd know whether it was flowing or not as it would be pretty obvious. Simple questions, have they fracced it ?, is the dust from the fraccing ? why testing to see if well flowing before drilling on ?

Our KO has decided to convert debt to equity now, so why ? He's getting interest on loans made so obviously thinks that sp appreciation likely from her and a final snout in the trough before sp moves. Serious money for the KO clan if this starts to deliver and i'm hoping that those busses are actually arriving on time.