Member Info for KumKuat

I'd like it to stay at 3.1p mid but it's well offered as it stands but no real selling. In our favour, investors/traders know that selling volume will send it down and is there appetite/demand on the sidelines for stock at a lower level which would see it bounce ? I have added at this level too but am waiting for a little retrace for more. Saving 0.25p at this level can be significant, dependant on your appetite but i agree, in the scheme of things, if it went to 20p+ which is possible (and much more), you'd be smiling if holding 10m shares. An average of 2.7p is lower than me and every 1p is £100k, not small beer !!!!

I don't believe A8 dust clearing will do much to sp but it will be good to get confirmation that its a green light for the 2 month Devonian drill.

On paper the shallow opportunity looks like it could deliver to expectations, the deeps, a completely different proposition and far higher risk of failure as history has demonstrated. We all make money on shallows alone and your £270k invested could easily deliver a 7 figure return without a deep success, i hope they're all in an ISA !

Ducks are lined up, let's see how good the marksman is.

Somm,

If you're adding to your pot, i'd be waiting as bid is very weak and i believe there's a shaky, shaky coming and maybe an opportunity to add in the mid or high 2ps. Much that i want to see 10p, the buying momentum has waned and it needs the 153 and SY positives to push it on and then we get to see if additional dilution is a drag or whether they let it run knowing that now is the time. All ducks lined up, KO maxed out and done the tax planning, kids all sorted, bonus scheme in play for Directors and touch paper now lit.

The BNG licence outcome was probably holding back the decision to push for more production and now that 154 is a success, time to open the taps and ditto with the SY structure. All of a sudden, there maybe a run of good news and the delays and excuses a thing of the past ? let's hope so but not counting chickens yet.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/caspian-sunrise-plc--casp-/rns/award-of-long-term-incentives/201906051208442528B/

Maybe the management team bonus structure could become a reality. No small beer and KO and co aren't in this for the Dividends !

Re the 9% dilution from Kuat debt conversion. Wished he'd done it @ 10p and only 3% but i suppose he's backed the company financially but it's his family's baby with a 46% controlling stake. Why convert @ 3.2p if they didn't think it was a good investment ? Earning interest off the debt @ 7% so Caspian is obviously a better bet.

They've also stated that they're looking to attract more shareholders so are the key holders going to relinquish some of their shareholding to bring bigger players in at some point ?

The dull times could be behind us and this could be the start of the 'Sunrise' chapter of Caspian. No guarantees but next 6 months will be defining for this company and it's passengers, fingers x'd.

Un,

Still believe that it bounces back to the $70s in Q3 and has a poke at $80 before yr end. The only blot on the landscape is Covid but we're in the lap of the gods there.

Volume has dried up on Caspian and any volume selling will take this down quickly and crazy to do so unless demand picks up. Those who've acquired shares will probably hold until next news and sell into the next spike and it may stall the sp progress until overhang cleared OR they may hold on knowing that Caspian is finally a good thing from current levels.

The shallows will give us regular news providing the next one is successful and the expectation will be that each HD will be very productive. If that transpires then sentiment will change with the other projects and we could have 3 deep wells coming to fruition in the next 3-6 months and hopefully 3AB too. Won't be boring !!

Been a poor run for markets and oil down 15%, wasn't expecting that. Covid still playing it's part and much that we're winning the battle, new strains are emerging. Not really hit the headlines but B1.621 that killed 7 elderly patients in a nursing home in Belgium last week, all double jabbed but obviously vulnerable. Part of the Kappa strain that originated in Colombia and now accounting for 9% of cases in Florida. I get all this info as some of my family are in the NHS and i had a bad bout of it 5 weeks ago. Still not recovered fully and lost over 2 stone, needed but not the way to lose it !! Much that it affects most of us with mild symptoms, it affects us all differently and some are unfortunate. I'm double jabbed and if i wasn't i'd have been on the ventilator and that's a fact as i was close this time.

Afghanistan crap is also spoking the market and earnings season with retail and some other sectors missing the mark. Hopefully Covid dissipates as the world gets jabbed but it looks like we still have some way to go.

Regarding 2p range ? looks like it's going there and as i've done on JAY today, i will be adding a few more. Silly not to when 153 is likely to deliver a similar outcome with SY licence imminent. They're now making profit from c 2kbopd and another 1000 from 153 and SY ? and most of it at export prices, what's not to like.

Maybe 2.? are likely ? More sells this week and opportunity knocks for those trading, looking for a cheap entry of LTHs looking to add a few more.

No real selling since 19m share admission ? The volume has dropped off so any selking would have to be managed to avoid ranking the sp and reducing the rig sale proceeds. Maybe they are happy to hold the stock, that would really be a positive statement as to future prospects.

I’m looking to add more if it retraces but starting to believe that opp may not materialise as we move closer to 153 HD result. Another success and you can forget 2 or 3p . Hopefully they jazz it up a little by announcing more shallow wells and timelines.

Yep, i can't disagree with the way KO has played the game. I'm sure there has been sweetheart deals on 3AB, rigs, Boaty etc but if he wanted to dilution then that would've been easy to achieve.

Overhang and selling ? not sure that rig sellers will dump as they will know the game. They got in on the cheap and are already in the money. If we see a retrace there's only one plan of action , buy more.

154 sustaining or increasing production volumes as per last RNS
153 emulating 154
SY licence and commitment to drill a horizontal

Plenty of activity planned over next 6 months and if 153 comes off then hopefully they detail the operational schedule as they have done in previous IPs. I go on about this but it's now time for a new IP to set out the operational schedule and future plans.

I believe we trade at this level until KO share swap agreed. If sp went higher, less stock for KO clan as it would be a hard sell if sp was markedly higher.

Trades here until 153 horizontal completed and Sept onwards to see the start of a proper rerate, obviously needs to be good news.

I’m sitting on hands waiting for a possible peg back to add a few more to the pot but I believe I’m not the only one and it will bounce.

Crude also facing headwinds with Covid still creating demand issues but we’re going in the right direction. Hopefully the Saudis don’t buckle to USA pressure to push production volumes up just to satisfy their desire to have low prices to energise the economic recovery.

One day Todney.

....lol

We will know whether we have a share overhang this week if there's significant selling or whether the recipients see Caspian as worthwhile investment and worth holding stock.

Hopefully 153 horizontal drilling and a result before month end. That is the catalyst to moving the sp north rapidly and hopefully SY licence follows in short order and they announce a horizontal well there too.

The Devonian drill to start this month ? hopefully the 'dust' can be cleared and we get some excitement from this and the 802 well but that won't get exiting until they reach TD next year.

That leaves 3AB so let's get the licence sorted so that we have 3 lucrative prospects being drilled simultaneously which will help with sentiment and hype. Maybe they could add in the A5 side-track and that would really spice it up.

Historically there have been **** ups and delays but let's hope that they really have changed tack and want to drill as much as possible, the rig acquisitions would say they do.

C'mon Clive, another 154 result for 153 and maybe the Director remueration/bonus scheme isn't so Walter Mitty .

SP crashed to 1.5p due to various factors but sentiment was damaged by poor communication leading to a lack of trust and inevitable loss of interest. They were insolvent when you look at the balance sheet with their main cash cow MJF not delivering to expectations set and all other assets technically mothballed.

It doesn’t take much to change sentiment and the 3AB/charter and 154 we’ll result have stopped the rot. 154 is the trend breaker that could prove that 5kbopd is more than achievable and if 153 is the same then this will re-rate on the believe that the company can move into considerable profit and quickly.

If everything else fails and it’s just a shallow play with MJF & SY on a 29 year licence, we still make 2 or 3 bags.

CC is spot on re Dunga but I suspect it’s sold for far more if they do get a positive result. The current players are committed to the field but can’t go deeper.

Only way we lose money from here is if 154 depletes and they over egged it, a bit like the initial expectations at 152/153 or if 154 fails. At this juncture, horizontal drilling is the steady route back to 10p, everything is in for free , no guarantees of success but that’s why the sp is 3p.

Finally re Divis, yep, KO clan will decide but not until the sp is far higher. They’re a OE minnow and the No1 priority is to get oil flowing before exploration licences expire.

As I said, no guarantees but if the shallows deliver as per 154 performance, the hype and chatter will return with gusto.

What are you trying to say Rhertig ??

FD - Financial Director

CC,
Yep they can shut in the deeps but if you work out the tanker challenge ie the number of tankers should a deep flow at 2000bopd added to existing production. Got to get a robust solution in the not too distant.

Probable overhang of stock from some of those large sells but if the cash starts to roll in then stop the share swap and pay for it and stick it on the balance sheet or finance it.

Bid weakened to 250k @ 3.13 thanks to our seller so may be slower progress than i'd hoped.

On the move up everyone. Bid the strongest in ages. Can sell 1.2m @ 3.01p. Ticks up coming and train leaving the station.

MJF, yep.

Funny talking to my FD who has been invested over the years but he'll do his analysis looking at current liabilities and stating they're technically insolvent, that's based on 2020 accounts. Missing bit of the jigsaw is the MJF/Yelemes possible bopd capability and associated costs are minimum so a return to profitability as of the 154 announcement. Want to know the new export flexibility as that's important and current netback from both dom/export markets. Transportation costs will go up and i suppose my biggest concern is the storage conundrum, pipeline to local refinery @ Attrayu.

153 news this month possibly and if it is another success @ 500bopd+ then maybe we can assume that recoverability rates go up considerably for all horizontals and maybe the 6kbopd+ is a reality ?

Money to be made.

CC,

Yep, totally agree with your post @ 17.24 yesterday.

We all know that the deep campaign is very high risk and there are no guarantees of success, the last 7 years have shown that. I still have no technical answer to the failures at Airshagyl or 802. Are the reservoirs tight ? The info we have would suggest otherwise, the limestone has been described as fissured, porous etc so you'd expect the well to flow easily. The pressures at 4000m+ are very high so why are they losing so much drilling fluid into the reservoir. I appreciate that they're over balanced with the Barite mud but you'd think that the reservoir pressure would win the battle but we're being advised that x tonnes of drilling mud lost into the cracks. fissures etc. As with MJF, maybe fraccing is the answer for existing deeps drilled but the lack of communication on the planned A8 work was disappointing, typical Caspian !

The fact that they're drilling 802 is interesting. I appreciate that they've halved the cost with ownership of own rigs etc but why go for 802 when cash is tight ? A9 has to be drilled too so is it as a result of pressure from the new Kaz regime or are they maximising the exploration phase of the licence before it expires ? Covid has shortened that opportunity by 18 months so they're up against the clock unless a renewal is likely.

My FD still hasn't given me the financial lingo re the divi piece but he believes it's a load of tosh. Cleaning up the balance sheet but the key Caspian shareholders make money from being volume oil producers, not from MJF and Yelemes as that doesn't pump the NAV by much, it's from the deeps and the other more lucrative projects.

It seems as they're going for it and it's long overdue in my book. The Devonian attempt will be interesting as 5000+ metres is deep, especially as Tengiz is the deepest reservoir in the world and i believe from memory that the oil column starts at 4000m and a mile in depth !!

They have enough opportunities to go at but the odds are against them on the deeps unless they change the strategy. Spending $5m to drill a deep using the same crew, same mud etc and expecting a different result ? Maybe Shin knows the answer.

Much that the deep program is high risk, at the current sp, i believe this is a no brainer to give us 2 or 3 bags minimum just based on the shallow opportunity, everything else in for free.

Dust...lol. It was one of my 10 questions that didn't get to the board. Not whether there would be dust but , timings for fracking, who were they using etc. Dust at 4500m down ? personally i find it bizarre as if they have fracced it using water, sand and chemicals, is the residue dust, that good ole mining term.

Just don't want to see any Carverspeak and unfortunately there is some in the last announcement and 'dust' is one of them, we need more tech info. He omitted to comment on A8 fracking and that's the stuff that really hacks me off.

Just tested the market and that little 500k buy has improved matters and can buy 1.50 max @ full ask and sell 800k, a tick up coming ?

Speaking to my FD today, he believes that the Divi statement is a complete red herring. I'm not an accountant and haven't discussed it in detail but he believes it's just a balance sheet clean up exercise as they move into profit. The deficit on reserves is stopping divis, share buy backs etc and just standard accountancy practice. For you C Accountants in the house, don't shoot the messenger but i'll hopefully post something sensible tomorrow after he's had a good look at the accounts.

They've made the decision to generate cash and accelerate drilling on premium assets, something afoot as to why they're going full steam ahead.

Thanks for that update Adrianz, interesting.