RE: CASP28 Jul 2021 11:51
Also good to see the volume picking up although i was hoping for more today. Good to see the churn as important to get the sellers out whether trading or leaving the ship. Only 860k traded but 2:1 in favour of buys and hopefully the daily volumes continue to grow. Bid has improved slightly to 600k @ 2.75p so a few more buys and this will tick and hopefully some positive answers to shareholders questions continues to lift sentiment/credibility.
If i can take this 645 bopd as gospel and use the 70:30 split/$45 netback and $12 for domestic (probably higher on both counts), then it does drive incremental revenues of $8m+ , that's a 60% hike in revenues. Would like to qualify out the 'most' statement so maybe another question to ask in the shareholder questions forum. I've asked enough.
Add in the shut in 300bopd @ SY at the same financial split as MJF and that adds another $3.85m to the turnover. MJF capacity was 1300 bopd so if they could produce annually at that rate, annual production would be 474,500 bopy, down from 546k in 2020 BUT add in the addition 945bopd from 154/SY then that adds 344,925 bopy and total production volume of 819,425, a 50% increase on 2020 numbers !! Yes they have to sustain flow rates but they have 14 or15 more wells to drill on MJF, they will use the same techniques at the Yelemes structure and who knows, maybe at A8 and the other deeps as they are planning to frack there too.
This stock has been depressed for years and as far as i can see, it's in a far better position now than it was in 2019 when so high was 14p. The loss of the deep opportunity or should i say the loss of credibility/sentiment from continued failure has damaged investor confidence and the sp. If Mr Shin is making a difference then he needs to articulate how he's going to change the deep saga and deliver that long awaited commercial success.
Add in 3AB , a poke at the Devonian and a lucrative barge rental, it won't take much to send this sp back to the 2014 26p levels and beyond. Getting ahead of myself, probably but it won't take much to restore the hype here and i would say it's long overdue !!