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That's an interesting one Bobsson. I haven't seen the communication that MJF oil is heavier and not commanding a premium price ? I haven't checked back but the oil from Airshagyl or lack of it was c 46API but i haven't checked MJF. The netbacks from export will be c $45 from gross Crude @ $74, maybe a little higher and hopefully shareholder questions will shed some more light on current netbacks for domestic and exported oil. Are you saying that A block oil @ 46api can be sold higher than current MJF ? (if they had any !)

Reading technical info on horizontal drilling (fracking), quite interesting and some structures very suited to such techniques, let's hope that MJF with multiple layers of 1-5m columns can be exploited far more commercially than with vertical drilling .

CC,

Ah, apols. It may have not doubled production but it would represent 80% of 2020 total revenue IF all oil was exported but as usual t, the word 'most' is difficult to quantify.

The 154 well result is very good news and i remain feet on ground as i believe 151 was initially announced as a 500bopd producer but not a horizontal well as we all know.

The market response is muted and if you add the SY 300, total production or should i say capacity, is now 2245bopd. The good news is that they can exploit the MJF and Yelemes structure with horizontal drilling so are the P1/2 numbers going to be revised upwards ? As i said, sp is currently under priced after today's news.

CC,

He didnt say double, a 50% increase which is correct on a 1300bopd current 'capacity', another Carverspeak special. It is very good news and we'll know soon enough how long it can maintain such production without depletion. More of the same i say and have added another 153k shares today as i feel that this has been a very muted response.

It will retrace a little and go again. Those who understand this share will profit from this. It's not just MJF wells, it's SY too and horizontal could open that that structure up too.

My $8m above is based on a 70/30 split but yet again Clive isn't giving the detail by stating most of the oil can be sold at export prices. Let's say 90% then and that's $10m pa, that is significant and enables them to ramp up shallow campaign.

That’s $8.5m pa from one well. We’ll needed revenue and cash flow. Is this the start of a proper turnaround and is Mr Shin making his presence felt ??

We’ll that’s what you call timing and very happy to be proved wrong. 645bopd, wow !! How long is that sustainable for, suppose time will tell but 50% uplift on current production capacity, great news and bodes well for the future .

The extract below came from the FY accounts published on 29/6. The MJF field delivered peak production of c 568k bopd in 2020 but current levels are at 1300bopd capacity so best case with existing wells would c 475k unless they drill new producers which is obviously the plan. P1 numbers reduced from the initial 18 mboe to 15.3mb in 5 years so a decline of 15% or 3% pa. Plenty of oil to be recovered over the 29 year production contract but they need to deliver wells like 154 or rev/cash flow will suffer. The plan was 24 wells and 4-6kbopd but recent wells have failed to deliver so they don't need any more poor results.

'The first wells were drilled on the MJF structure in 2016, since when it has produced in aggregate approximately 2.1 million barrels. As the original wells drilled continue to age additional work is required to keep them operational. During the period under review we produced 545,667 barrels of oil at an average of 1,491 bopd (2019: 506,620 barrels at an average of 1,388 bopd). Subsequently, Well 154 was spudded in April 2021 with a Planned Measured Depth of 2,480 meters. Drilling is nearing completion with much of the casing laid. This is the first horizontal well on the BNG Contract Area.'

Even better, a bumper RNS then answers to questions. They have been keen to communicate any positive news ie 3AB outsource and barge charter but shy away from issuing bad news ie the loss of the legal challenge which should've required an RNS but wrapped up in the FY accounts. 154 looks like going the same way so i'm expecting a poor result there as they would've issued good news immediately.

At least they're not shying away from the questions. The communication is one of my bugbears especially when it comes to technical detail. There have been some shocking statements that have been contradictory and misleading at best. The 1500 bopd flowing at A5 was nonsense, it wasn't flowing. The difference in the APIs/Pressure in the A block wells, it's meant to be one connected reservoir ? A8 completion and now planning to drill onto the Devonian ? I thought the decision was to complete and test so still don't understand how they drill on from current depth ? Also don't really understand the real reason for the loss of connectivity from well bore to reservoir. Is it the barite mud, lack of pressure or because it's tight ? Mr Shin needs to get his act together and articulate how he's going to turn failure into success and pretty sharpish. With the current cashflow challenges, they have to outsource deep work and if nobody comes forward then i would deduce that the A block data is not that appealing to outsiders.

TT,

They're not taking the price down, their just incompetent. If they wanted the price down, they could do that easily by issuing catastrophic news but selling or taking Private are options as a last resort.

Regardless of deep fiasco and how frustrated i get with Caspian, i still see multi-bags from the current sp. A positive SY and 154 will be a starter for 10 but obviously something amiss with 154 as over a month overdue. A 3AB result would transform the company and a proper charter on the barge ie $20m+ would also add considerable value. Who knows, they may develop MJF and SY shallows with horizontal drilling techniques, only time will tell.

The missing bit of the jigsaw is the deeps and they need a partner forA9 and to be honest, for the whole shooting match in the Devonian.

Lots of upside and limited downside in my book and will continue to wait for that elusive payday .

Yep, 154 overdue. Positive ie 150/200bopd+ will reinforce the expectation set ie that MJF can become a 4k+ bopd field. A negative result will damage sentiment and question the effect of horizontal drilling.

A8, no timescales for completion and fracking, with a cash balance of $0.7m, i don't see any movement there yet. No info of fracking partner as with 3AB partner, comms need to be far more transparent going forward, a question for the board.

A5, nothing happening there either til cash position strengthens.

3AB, need agreement from authorities that new partner can take on work commitments as per licence rules. The way licence approvals are going, this will probably take longer.

SY licence approval, hopefully this quarter but i'm not expecting any deep or 3AB progress yet. A positive 154 and SY would deliver cash to give them options to do the remedial work on deeps and hopefully drill a couple more wells on MJF. I believe 2021 is written off for deep progress and A8 frack is probably the only development, maybe an A9 spud.

Not all doom and gloom as they still have time to convert the deeps before exploratory licence comes up for renewal in 2024 and they will know before then whether it's worth it or not, hopefully after 8 years it is !!

3AB, CE and SY exploitation from horizontal drilling are all assets that could deliver considerable sp appreciation but they'll take longer. Not doom and glom, just factual and still money to be made.

The bid has also strengthened significantly to 800k @ 2.5p so won't take much to tick it up. It's rising on tiny volume but i suppose it declined on FY results day and volume was also small. Needs some solid news to kick it through 3p and 154 could be the first boost, hopefully .

https://www.caspiansunrise.com/investors/agm/

Interesting that they haven't advertised the Shareholder questions, just put it on the website or have i missed something in the FY accounts ?

Important that investors ask questions as i believe that you'll get more from it than any RNS !

Trading the imminent news on 154 and likely to be this week as 3 weeks overdue. Let’s hope that horizontal drilling is making a difference but as always, never counting chickens ! Maybe another snippet of news in addition to AGM date ?

It's a good article and we'll be second guessing the oil price for some time to come, the analysts rarely get it right !

Very boring here currently as we're back in pause mode waiting for 154 that should be known by now. 8th April RNS - ;

'The Board is also pleased to report a new shallow well, 154, has been spudded on the MJF structure with a planned Total Depth of 2,200 meters. The well is expected to take 2 months to drill and if successful should be able to produce towards the end of Q2 2021.Additionally, management are considering the use of horizontal drilling on the MJF structure to further increase production.'

Drilling to 2200m and hopefully producing come end of Q2. FY accounts commentary on 29/6 stated drilling to 2480m and almost finished, laying casing etc. Let's hope that the first horizontal is successful as it will give the sp a boost and confidence that MJF volumes can build as opposed to the current situation whereby they're managing a slow decline as wells need constant attention.

No announcement of AGM unless i've missed something, no postal notification or from my broker ? Last year it was announced the day after the accounts so this delay intimates they're not organised or leaving little time from announcement to actual AGM to limit awkward shareholder questions.

Positive update on 154 would be good but the longer it takes the less confident i feel and SY licence shortly would help. They'll be working hard to find a Partner for future deep wells but i'm hoping that they share the possible spoils as opposed to farming out individual wells. Time to give some clarity on future plans so that we can assess our investment positions.

Oil price is a difficult one to predict from here and as you say UAE can't do it on their own. So many variables to factor in but there is one critical ingredient and that's demand. Let's hope that our 'Vaccine Wall' holds out against new environments and Covid becomes the new flu and no severe disruption to the global economy and all our lives.

Last year Caspian posted $14.3m up 18% on production of 546k barrels at an average price of $42 for export (35% down on 2019), probably $6-8 for domestic. To me, that was not a disaster and they traded through, that was an achievement in my book. 2021 should be a marked improvement with export probably averaging $70 for the year and domestic back to near historic levels. Production will be down if MJF delivers c 475k barrels (13% decline) but they also have SY, maybe for 3 or 4 months this year ? so that could take production to 500k without further producing wells on MJF. Turnover will be in excess of $ 20m if Crude stays above $70, the sp will move north but the real appreciation comes from the other assets.

Still worth hanging on to see how it develops, i remain hopeful (-:

It was either going to push through $80 or have a pullback but I still see the bull run continuing. The chart was in nosebleed territory and 60% up from start of the year so no bad thing.

We at Caspian need that detailed operational plan but I suspect they’re working hard to sort the partner out. It wouldn’t surprise me if KNOC make an appearance but I’d love to see a funded JV ad opposed to bringing partners in on a piecemeal basis.

Still life in the old dog and it won’t take much to see the sp double from here.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/average_crude_oil_spot_price

Average for 2021 will soon be above $70 if not already and just need to get SY back in production this qtr. Add to that a 154 producer and things will be looking a tad healthier although 154 seems to be taking ages ! Doesn’t fix the A9 spud but extra cash will hopefully speed up A5/A8 remedial work.

Crude at highest level since Oct 18 and $80 in touching distance, all good for Caspian.

Good old AIM, you lose done, you lose some more. I can name far more losers than winners although thankfully some of the winners are good ones. I do hold the sensible stocks that pay dividends but you have to have the ones that are often sh#t or bust.

Average is very low here and I still believe I come out winning but I can’t defend a 14 year investment that is now 2p and has delivered little unless traded and many have done ok there.

Even if they rent the barge we’ll do ok and I’ll stay with it but as always, only one person accountable ??