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A bit feisty Somm.
As Uncertain has politely positioned, it's pretty obvious that revenues and profitability has declined YOY, the only positives being a fully year of export sales from MJF as opposed to 4 in 2019 plus the reduced G&A costs. I look forward to analysing the numbers but if you're looking for an sp retrace, i don't believe you'll see it as it's already factored in. As stated, the only way you get a retrace is if oil production down, 154 not positive or something negative in the accounts not known. The main fact is that they've traded through where some have failed and 2021 should read well. We'll find out soon enough butmy money is on a northwards sp move.
Sounds like you get your exercise walkung and visiting historical sites.
Wild brownies and grayling, great sport for tiny drys and nymphs, no lures allowed !
Somm , you’re expecting CARP financials and with average crude @42 through 2020, decimated domestic price and no SY, it’s likely that they will be but they traded through. I don’t believe so retraces from here unless there is stuff we don’t know about or MJF production has declined considerably and maybe 154 failure.
2020 is history , 2021 oil prices are above 2019 levels and cost base is less so management accounts for 2021 should be the healthiest since incorporation. Need some good commentary on 2021 to date and clear strategy with timescales going forwards.
That’s cheating ! I like to waste hours not catching anything ! I’m moving down west in next 2 years and I’ve seen a couple of properties with lovely chalk streams in the garden but not quite 350m !! Are they browns or rainbow ?
Fracking is used in the oil industry, not just gas. Yep, UK companies like Cuadrilla Resources in Lancashire, fracking for gas, the famous UKOG/Angus Energy etc in the South Downs for oil. Much more resistance in the UK especially when sites are close to residential settlements, not the case in Caspian's case or the US shale drillers or Canadian tar sands.
Caspian are using it at MJF to exploit the shallower layers where oil is trapped, they're also looking to do it on A8 to resolve the issues on blocked fractures from all the lost drilling mud. I'm not the technical one and my Geology A level only goes so far...lol No earthquakes in Kstan and hopefully Mr Shin has access the the pump and kit needed to frack a deep well but i look forward to hearing about it.
Golf and fly fishing, definitely missing out imo. Luckily we're all different. Just had a look at their website and hopefully the 21 year old single malt and the 'LTD' is a cracker. I like most whisky but have a liking for the peaty Islay malts but have a diverse collection and you may even find the odd blend too !
The valuation on the deeps is a finger in the air job. If they can substantiate that 58km2 then you can start talking far bigger numbers and who knows what's in the Devonian.
FY results will be out in next 2 weeks and i suspect that 154 will be part of that if positive. Somm wants the CARP results out first but the way they've reported recently eg the domestic price move, they will want to dilute any poor news. I believe people will start to buy this week pre news and i'm hoping that it's not as disastrous as many expect. Also the numbers are 6 months old now and the 2021 financials with gross oil trading @ mid $60 average must be healthy providing they're maintaining shallow production.
Come on Mr Shin, need you to take control of all things operational and articulate how you're going to turn things around.
Oil at 2021 high, actually highest since April 2019 and another $8 sees it through 2018 levels. Before that, you have to go back to the period 2005-2015 to see higher levels and they were calling $200 back then ! IEA is calling for more output from Opec+ citing considerable increase in demand in 2022 ! Maybe we get to see3 figure oil again and all we need now is for Caspian to produce some.
Isle of Arran, now that's a luverly place if you get the weather. Only been there a couple of times in my golfing days. The Ayrshire cost a boat ride away, Troon, Turnberry and some great municipal golf courses too, add in some fly fishing, whisky and good company, can't beat it.
Uncertain, i take it you went to the castles and had a dram or 3 of Lochranza (-:
Back to Caspian and 4 wells @ 1500. If that came to pass, the sp would go way past 25p, the hype would be ridiculous and you'll have the rampers talking about elephants, billions of barrels etc. A pipe dream at this juncture, just got to get that first one over the line and investors in Caspian will start to have some proper fun and make some money on the journey.
The original projection for a5 and 6 was 3500bopd but dumbed down after all the issues. You can work out the lifetime value of one well over the license period at export netbacks of $45 on a 60:40 or 70:30 ratio. Haven’t got the production license as no wells yet and won’t apply for it until they have 3or 4 wins. Or even better still, you can ask Uncertain as he’s bound to have it in his spread sheet to work out the NAV, I’m being lazy !
That's a difficult question as a standalone deep success is the start of the process. The appraisal process and CPR will define what's in the ground, it will give the P1/P2 numbers which will define value. The initial seismic suggested that the reservoir targets were 100mmbls but it's been so long, i can't remember without checking the last IP (Investor Presentation). They are well overdue an update and hopefully our new COO will oblige. The 58km2 statement and the data collected showed the oil column @ c 100m for the wells drilled on A block to date. That's a huge find and much larger than the initial expectations but as we all know, that's yet to be confirmed and they'd need to get A5 flowing and 2 appraisals in order to undertake a new CPR and P1/2 numbers.
f your question is really what will happen to the share price on a deep discovery @ 1500 bopd, then that also is difficult but history has shown that 25p was achievable but as you know, hype played it's part back then. The difference today is that they've drilled 2 other wells, major drilling costs paid so if they could flow one, why not 4 with A9 plus future wells. If they can prove the 58km2 statement, the hype would be off the scale and it will get ramped, the Devonian will be in play and the share price will get well ahead of true value as happens in most cases. Also, they're far further ahead today than they were in 2013 from an operational perspective, know far more about the geology, the A block is far bigger than estimates from a reserves perspective and they have other assets like 3AB, CE and MJF that didn't exist then.
Re the Investor Presentation, i'd ask any investor to read the last one so that you could see what was expected. I find it laughable, actually fiction compared to the current position but the only way they change this is by proving up the first deep.
Loads of potential but at this juncture they need to flow that first deep to open Pandora's Box, that's when the real fun will begin . In the meantime, there's upside from MJF if they can get back on track with productive wells and who knows what will happen with 3AB and the CE opportunity. They need a competent partner for A9 or if they go it alone, they'll need an Appeal refund, SY back online and MJF with healthy production so they can fund from cash flow.
Clear as mud...lol
Unfortunately that will not happen and current expectations are that A5 will be the best we’ll at c 1500bopd. The only way they get a well producing those numbers would probably be from the unexplored Devonian .
The key to success will be to prove up Airshagyl block and I’d take 4 wells at 1500bopd and then a CPR to evidence their 58km2 statement, that would throw that cat amongst the pigeons !!
Oh yes, i forgot to comment on FK. From his posts, he was a prolific ramper who only saw one outcome. Not objective or pragmatic and openly talking to Clive, that isn't good as history has shown. He'd shout down any negativity and only one line of attack, that's what i call delusion. Plenty wrong with Caspian and plenty they've done wrong, mis communication, contradiction, lies etc but i still believe we get a profitable result, especially from this level.
Nothing wrong with trying to assess the highs and lows and from your posts, you've done that effectively to lower your average price, that's smart trading. My point about insincerity is when individuals mislead others when ramping when selling and de-ramping when buying.
My strategy has failed to date as mine has been largely buy and hold. Not to say that i haven't sold in volume, i have when i see considerable risk but i have more stock than i've ever held at this point in time and have been buying at the bottom. Could i have traded it and accumulated more stock, yep. Would that have been a smart thing to do ? yep but there is always a risk and a but and i'm happy to have lowered my average considerably by buying the lows. I only win if Caspian win and my approach is investment v trading and i'll call it as i see it but it's my money, my responsibility and as you like research, DYOR is essential as there is only one throat to choke !
I maintain that KO wants success or maybe needs success more than me and i'm investing on the basis that he'll achieve success at some juncture. Not been an enjoyable ride for the LTH but i still see light at the end of that tunnel and personally i believe it will get brighter, if it doesn't it's every investor's loss.
Enough about me, good to see oil having a go at $73 and who knows $80 may be achievable in the short term although i believe it won't go much higher but we'll see. About time Caspian delivered some communication that excites their investor base and there's still enough in their asset base to deliver a healthy return for many, hopefully sooner rather than later.
Yes, I suppose my posts do but it’s been consistent for 14 years. It’s the insincerity that I dislike, great one day, crap the next. I get down on Caspian and criticise them but I still see the opportunity I first saw back in 2007 and post to that agenda.
Hoping that our new COO has a good partner in mind that could finally solve the deep conundrum and I stay invested til I see that’s no longer a possibility.
I'm not after recommendations...lol, just some good debate and there's usually plenty of it on this BB. Shame that Adrianz doesn't post anymore or MO as i believe they were good contributors much that many ramp/de-ramp to suit agendas.
I feel that Caspian have turned a corner and hoping that the 1.5p low will not need a re-visit ever again. Caspian have a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory so hoping that they clearly outline plans and include some good operational developments to boot .
2019 FY summary below and it will be interesting to see 2020 numbers this month. Many have stated that they'll be CARP and the recent £70k share issue to repay historic debt and the CE charter,3AB farm in probably supports that view but i'm not so sure.
2020 -545,667 - 2019 - 506,620
Crude average price $42 - $64 (35% decline)
Export prices achieved for 60:40 split for fy 2020, only 3 months in 2019
Most costs decreased in 20, less operational spend, lower G&A costs. Increases, barge rental, other ?
Domestic market oil price crash
Tenge - pretty flat @ 378/$
Increased payments to oil traders ?
It will be interesting to see the accounts to see the true story. Crude has recovered strongly, touching $72 today and 2021 average @ c $66 and i don't see why they're having cashflow problems. Yes they don't have the SY 300bopd but that was the same for most of 2019. Not long to wait to get some clarity and some good commentary re strategy going forward !!
• Operational (wells drilled at end of year) 2019: 17 (2018: 17)
• Aggregate production for 2019 was 506,620 barrels (2018: 589,750) a decline of 14.1 per cent.
• Reserves at 31 December 2019 P1 17.8 mmbls & P2 28.8 mmbls (2018: P1 17.8mmbls & P2 28.8) mmbls
• Revenue: $12.1 million (2018: $10.7 million)
• Loss for the year $1.4 million (2018: $8.5 million)
• Cash at bank: $4.1 million (2018: $0.6 million)
• Total assets: $127.5 million (2018: $65.5 million)
60% up from the recent lows, it feels like we've turned a corner, weathered the Covid crisis and on the start of the recovery to pre 2020 sp levels. We have enough in the pipeline to generate a recovery but it's the first flowing deep that will be the catalyst to make that recovery rapid.
FY2020 out this month, hopefully with some good commentary on 2021 trading and more importantly, the strategic plan explaining how they plan to do it.
The barge charter has taken some pressure off and it's likely that they will be able to get a return from it going forward, especially it's back in active service, i believe that's encouraging.
The deeps, i believe they follow the 3AB model. They'll probably continue with the remedial work, the fracking on A8 etc and outsource A9 and any future licence commitments. I believe this is the key, a good partner who can help them flow that vital first deep.
Hopefully 154 delivers as that will give a boost and if horizontal drilling proves successful, who knows, MJF maybe better than we're thinking at this juncture. 3AB ? we're also going to know this year whether in or out.
The regulatory stuff needs sorting and Crude prices to stay above $70 with an increase in the domestic pricing.
In summary, plenty in the pipeline that can return this to double figures but that deep is crucial and my money is on A5/A8.
You've got me there, i don't see any listed ?
Whilst i'm in good spirits and it's POETS Day, thought i'd re-post the A5 flaring video for newbies who haven't seen it. Nothing like a little Friday mini ramp...lol
Thank you IBYB.
I can also write the bearish note but i truly believe that this mob can turn things around. I want to see more transparency in their announcements eg the 70k debt paid from shares, who was the recipient ? The farm in partner for 3AB, who are they. By not including the detail, it just looks underhand which then leads to issues with trust, credibility leading go poor sentiment.
This isn't going under, it will trade through and as i see it, very little downside and plenty of upside, a risk worth taking in my book.
As stated, time to improve the communication, include the technical detail that makes sense, be more transparent and outline a clear strategy with a proper business plan that is deliverable. Not much to ask !