Member Info for KumKuat

CC….lol. I was wondering how long it would take before you piped up.

BB It’s not but I’d rather see them ploughing ahead on the operational front and getting the sp to fly. The news was a mixed bag for me and I’ll post my thoughts later.

The good news was the oil receipt piece. If they’re selling oil at $35 then that’s the mid point between MR & Domestic and a 50:50 split. If that is the case then you can calculate PAT and their ability to easily pay Divis. You can add in an additional $5-$10 come Q1 and they’re doing what they said at the AGM.

Operationally the update was poor and as I said earlier, trumped by the Divi news. Obviously not much progress on 142/145 and 141 as deferred to Q1, that was disappointing especially as 142 flowed at 1400bopd. They expect to get production back to those levels in Q1 and drill an additional well. 155.

892, the good news they’ve found oil and wouldn’t be sidetracking if they hadn’t. I suspect that they found oil much sooner than expected and not cased resulting in problems. I believe this could be our first deep or should I say intermediate zone opportunity. Not 1000s of barrels, probably hundreds but ass it to the pot at higher oil netbacks = good news.

The barge ? maybe they’re closer than we think ? The decision to pay monthly Divis ? maybe they went with this knowing that there’s a chunk of cash coming ? speculation on my part but odd they didn’t update on it ?

Every 1m shares pays £5333 pa and likely to. Ontinue for sone time. What’s not to like about that.

23 a year of operational activity and They obviously believe that they’ll have enough cash to pay regular divi income and run a busy operational program. Good news is that their spend will decline on the deeps as it’s largely remedial work.

Maybe we get a surprise on the rust bucket ? As always, tick, tock.

A strong volume day and plenty of churn, hopefully sone new buyers seeing the opportunity here.

I sent a note to CC early doors to seek clarification on several points but no response as yet unfortunately

Operationally it was a poor RNS BUT the divi declaration trumped operations. A high divi yield based on the price of 2.5p but there aren’t many peeps with an average price at this level !

My summary fwiw -;

Shallows
Negative
No detail as to why 141/142/145 not delivered operational success. Have they continued to have problems or done zippo and conserved cash.

No more activity til Q1 ?

Positive
Still flowing at approx 2400

Selling oil at $35 net to MRs was great news but I was told that was $37 but our Clive has stated all oil sold domestically but not clear as to what’s being sold to MRs and to domestic market. I was told that domestic oil was achieving $33 and $28 net. Important to understand the net number as it’s very material. CC is very good with obfuscation and this was another example. Also the $25-30 sanction discount ? It was $40 as per last comms. He is crap with detail !

Also good news on the trading improvement as of Jan 23 and another $5-10 to the pot.

Deeps
802 has failed on the targeted structure but found oil in the intermediate zones whereby the flow rates are likely to be less and in the hundreds but the key news will be the reserves present if they flow it. Obviously have had problems as why side track ? No detail as usual so PIs are in the dark, nothing new there.

Future Operational work
Can kivjed download the road on all operations bar 802 ? Why aren’t they drilling MJF ?

Barge
Must’ve slipped his mind.

Divis
Great news but I don’t get the monthly payments as it’s not what was communicated to me. Don’t get me wrong, I make £55k pa providing they pay Divis and I love the fact is monthly but can they deliver ?

I have asked lots of questions so that I can understand profitability and to do that I need to see the true split on MR/Donestic output. They have stated that they will get to prod levels recently announced so I take that to mean c3500-4000 bopd which would deliver considerable profitability,

2023 will see the outcome of the BNG deeps. One more well to drill ie A7 and loads of remedial work. 802 was meant to be our best COS but unfortunately we have no detail to understand what they’ve found.

I remain optimistic but tinged with a little cynicism as a result of the continued Carverspeak.

Blue,

Just qualification questions re Divis and yes monthly payments was one. Oil sale receipts was another as he hasn’t made it clear as to the % split between MRs and Domestic. Others are operational and yes, he forgot the barge.

Market very liquid and will be interesting how it trades into the close. Bid max 500k at 3.56, ask 1.1m at 3.69p. Should be some activity on the BBS and SM platforms over the weekend.

DD….lol.

I am deliberately staying away as I’m having some thick mince for lunch. It’s actually true. Burritos with some naga salsa on the side .

Have sent a few questions of HQ, waiting for a response :)

DM,

We’re rich ….lol I can offset it against the heating bill !

Thank you CC. I love thick mince

To add, MMS wanting full ask for stock.

Only flaw in that plan CC, Tokayev is rinsing the oil companies in Kaz. Casper forced to look at other routes for their oil as a result. Kaz oilers being taxed on gross crude as opposed to sanctioned price. Inflation increased for the 10th straight month to 18.8% !! We think we're finding it tough !

MMs are slowly moving the bid up and has move from 2.21p 2 days ago to 2.43p although bid volume down to 375k as they test PI appetite.

Every tenth of a penny = many thousands for some larger holders and it's about time we had some decent news. No Friday f*** up Mr Carver, you owe us some positive news.

Bid price slowly building, 2.323 to 500k and 2.3 to 750k. Max buy 2.39, 150k on II platform. Tiny volume but going the right direction, currently ! C'mon Clive, no more crap news, time for the rockets !!!

Hi DD,

No idea re share gifting.

Anything else in the shed ? Well, Block 8 is coming in 2024 and they couldn't issue shares as it would create a takeover dilemma so instead have concocted another plan as communicated and yep, i sense our KO might have a windy location on BNG to set up a few turbines...lol.

Meanwhile the bid is strengthening again, currently 1.3m and i was hoping to see a little more interest as we near inevitable news, good, bad or indifferent.

They've communicated the 'wind farm' idea and i can see that happening too as Kaz is a good location as per link below and China have recently invested as per second link. I'm not against wind energy providing there's wind and would like to understand the ROI on such a project.

https://www.eurasian-research.org/publication/potential-of-wind-energy-in-kazakhstan/

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275198.shtml

DD, i can confirm that our Clive did confirm in person that we would receive a divi this year. I don't believe we'll be going to the Bahamas on the proceeds unless they have chartered/sold the CE.

If no update tomorrow, then we're probably going to TD with 802 unless they've encountered issues or maybe they've completed early and are testing ? 801 completed @ c 4950m and i don't understand why they're going that deep as seismic shows no structure of interest but then again, it was Soviet 2D unreliable technology.

Apols to NN, it was the Chinese that purchased Galaz, nor Sinopec but Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Technology.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/108167/roxi-petroleum-receives-us10mln-cash-from-galaz-sale-108167.html

...lol. Yep, Galaz sold to Kim Jong-un and converted the drill site to underground missile silos

NN,

Poxy sold Galaz to the Koreans, great deal as they needed cash. Sinopec drilled 801 not A5 but if Casper did achieve success at A block, yep the bigger players would be interested, especially as they have Block 8 to prove up in 2024 probably.

Explorer pricing to be a white elephant until N Caspian exploration projects restart and 3AB was a sweetheart deal for Kuat, now written off and any proceeds will not recover the dilution from shares issued.

News upon us, tomorrow or Thurs but regardless of timing, we need a good one .

Kheldar,

There are many long term investors that are still waiting for their payday. The oil is in the ground, they’ve proved that but getting it to flow has been a real saga, a comedy of errors , a description that is more apt.

As far as I’m concerned, they’re in better financial health now than at anytime since incorporation. They own the whole acreage and have proved that the oil is there in the deeps but the geology, heat and pressure has proved a challenge that has defeated them to date.

They should make $15m profit after tax in 2022 but still 2 months to build production from shallows and who knows, they may get lucky on 802. The huge sp re rate comes from the deeps and they have the cash to continue the journey on Airshagyl through 2023 .

Sp and fundamental value are disconnected but the geopolitical situation is a drag on the sp. PI sentiment is poor and only one thing changes that, operational success.

To add. Nice to see some continued buying and bid up to 1.6m @ 2.275. Maybe a long overdue bullish run on the cards ?

Belles,
The odds should be our favour with 142/145/802/Barge and Divis all in play BUT as we know, this is Casper and not possible to count chickens. They've surprised us with good news on the productive shallows over the last 18months but also kicked us in the nuts when announcing 142 at 1400bopd and then to find out another pasty has gone missing !

If they're selling the majority of oil to MRs, the financials will be healthy and 2022 PAT should be at least $15m, not too shabby. The upside is still in play from operations plus oil prices should sanctions be lifted but i don't see that anytime soon.