Member Info for KumKuat

Buses ? who knows.

The 550k trade reported as a sell, looks like a buy to me but somebody wanted out today with the 1.5m. Each to their own.

We have sellers still ! spoiling the party. 1.5m in 2 trades and 550k at the end, not sure if that was a buy or sell. Still being traded down here and it's flippin frustrating. Looks like the right news is needed to shake out the sellers.

Bid slowly building. 575k @ 2.315p and just needs a little push or maybe a big push to get it going. Compare current situation v Covid situation and price !! this is an absolute steal for those with steel cojones .

Nice one Wolfi :)

Good to see a little blue. We all know news is coming and some are buying pre RNS. SP was over 60% down since AGM ? and obviously some see an opportunity to make a few quid . Nothing guaranteed as this is Casper but at least 3 updates coming that al materially affect sp.

Nice to see a chunky 500k buy, let's hope it proves to be a very wise purchase. Bid strengthened accordingly to 650k.

Looks like our news will be next week but as Somm stated, they could setting the casing and drilling on to 5300m. Not sure if drilling to 5300m was part of the licence requirements or whether they can complete before if they find oil as expected. They will be in the pay zone now so hopefully going well. Key will be the perforation and ensuing flow test and time to change our luck.

Bull, you had both in the Interims ? Details of the period covered ie H1 and updates on MJF and deeps ? 802 was at 3800 but that was current at time of reporting as was 2264bopd from shallows together with the issues at 141/142 & 145. Also that they were selling oil to MRs and stopping export due to $40 discount.

Casper aren't going to pass material inside info to anyone unless you want to be taken inside, i certainly don't. Clive is waiting for info from Almaty but that's the usual process and i'm expecting to see news on current situation but i can't tell anyone whether it's good bad or indifferent. Testing my understanding on the numbers and the move to MRs was important as we can work out the profit. Nothing new with Divis either as they've stated this year and that's the plan, i suspect Dec.

The wait goes on.

Adrianz, yep, i can pen the Carlsberg or the Carverspeak but we're long overdue the former.

Nothing new in my post, just qualifying out info from the interims and my understanding of true netbacks/taxation etc so i can work likely profitability. I knew that we were getting sh*fted on Urals and netbacks were sub $30 but the State/OTs are robbing the producers blind. Getting taxed on gross Crude pre $40 Urals discount ! you can see that Tokayev is taking his share. Good thing is that big boys can't go to the MRs as aimed at the smaller players. It'll be a supply and demand game probably and depends on MR capacity so Casper will have to trade with more than 1.

If my numbers are right, 46% NP in H2 would be a great result so they just need to build the production and fill those coffers.

Unfortunately with Casper, defeat from the jaws of victory has been far to commonplace, it's time for a change.

Yep, 802, then A7 and maybe A5 simultaneously dependant on kit. The rest of the work would be remedial on A6 and 801 and i don't believe they would partner until 24 earliest on a failure case.

Nuffink guaranteed but with a market cap of c $57m and annual PAT @ c$15m FY. Q4 net should be stronger than Q3 as Casper should benefit from the extra $10 on a % of oil sold to MRs, hopefully a minimum of 60% of production. Turnover should be c $15 for H2 PAT @ c$7m. Just got to increase production to fund Divis whilst continuing operational schedule, a barge deal would help !

Somm, i suspect you're right re cementing/casing and we'll find out whether they test any intervals found to date and complete or go on to TD.

Et al,
I believe we may get lucky with 802 but we've been here before and no chicken counting. They're not going to give up on the deeps, that's clearly evident. Airshagyl block is the prize as that's where the most oil is and they will spend time following focussing on this as a priority. If they fail, then data centre process with a view to partnering on a carried basis. They've proved the oil is there but they need to go back to AF with a plan to get it flowing. They're working with Baker Hughes who are very competent allegedly but that competence hasn't delivered a result yet. They've learnt a lot going through the process and only time will decide whether they will succeed eventually or get a farm in.

Ops update ? was in the Interims last month ?

Checked a few things with Casper .

Producing oil, selling oil to domestic and MRs. Exports were only achieving c$27 after sanctions and paying tax on gross Crude ? The govt and OTs are definitely being greedy.

Majority of oil being sold to MRs at $38 ($37 net), Domestic at $33 ($28 net). Producing at 2264bood, you can work out the numbers. Gross revenues will decline but profitability better in Q4 if majority of oil sold to MRs.

Divis to be paid as communicated end of year, would not be drawn on magnitude.

Barge, waiting result of tender. Not a cost thing, purely down to feasibility and whether project will go ahead, if it does then we have a result, if it first we wait til next season.

Excited about Block 8 as they believe the deep structures are part of the Tengiz/Kashagan structures. They won’t waste money drilling multiple wells if not successful and won’t drain Casper. Worth reading history from Soviet times.

802, update from Almaty imminent and we’ll soon know current status.

The 5k target on MJF is still the plan and an ongoing process of drill and workover to keep the field producing productively.

Going to be a profitable Q4 providing majority of oil continues to be sold to MRs. 802 success will help with sentiment and a barge tender will inject cash . Sp and fundamentals disconnect but need good news to get the attention of investors. Barge, Divis and operational success are the catalysts and we get to know status on all over next 2 months.

Tick, tock.

DM, i thought that might have happened already and not out of the question. Need to build cash to give themselves options.

NN,

A lot of what you say is true and yep, i can't argue with the sunk costs to date with the deeps and yep, they've proved they can't deal with the heat and pressure. If they fail at 802 then there has to be a strange of strategy, they must recognise that as the wasted drilling costs could be converted to divis.

MXP is a completely different story and incompetence from the US leadership and their inability to navigate the Kazakh burreaucracy. The Pox was Max's little brother and many inc moi, thought it would never succeeed but some good management with the sale of Galaz and success at MJF has ensured that the story goes on.

Somm, you're getting into rampy mode....lol. Yep, we should be at 4500m+ barring any problems encountered since last update on 26/9. Was/am expecting to see news this week especially as they've had oil shows. As posted many times, finding the oil is one thing, flowing it is another but maybe this is the time, if not, needs somebody in that knows how to to and share the spoils.

Hopefully our new Chancellor can steady the ship following 2 weeks of chaos. £ bounced almost 1% so hopefully after today's update, the confidence in the British economy will improve and maybe a little more interest in equities. So many stocks on their arze and in the value pot but you've got to have the cash to take advantage and many are suffering losses if they still hold. VTY and many HBs that pay divis, RR etc. I'm looking for tthe depressed divi payers with strong fundamentals and great opp to get both capital appreciation with icing on top.

C'mon Clive, let's see what you've got.

NN, twice the shares and 100% of the acreage v 54% historically but you know that ;)

The odds are against us on 802 going on our track record to date but hey, if they pull it off, it will be a huge boost to confidence. The hype will return to Casper but much that I want to see it, not counting any chickens .

OMG, somebody has purchased 120k...lol, well done to the buyer or maybe we'll say that next week. Market is weak on the bid, can only sell 20k @ 2.4p and buys are being offered at 2.4p too. Next move is down unless we see more buying.

Certainly not easy and our Tokayev is walking the political tightrope trying to appease those who can damage GDP.

Somm,
Having ‘significant’ oil shows at 3800m or at higher levels ? was. It expected so we need clarity on that. 801 didn’t have oil shows at that level and am looking forward to understanding more.

I have them at 4300m if they were at 3800m on 26/9 but likely to be deeper as RNS was probably penned a week earlier so maybe at 4500m and into the intended pay zone.

News next week probably and hoping not to see any excuses re drill problems. Next news will be coring updates if they’ve found oil and that will continue as per historic wells. They may not communicate as per A5 ie weekly updates although that would be good for market excitement but many have seen it all before and a successful flow test is the defining news. It’s unlikely to be dry as the previous Soviet era well found oil so it’s down to the heat and pressure management and whether Shin can avoid drilling overbalanced and losing all the drilling mud into the reservoir !!

This is our last well under licence commitments, if they find oil but fail to flow it, hopefully that makes it easier to partner with someone who has the skills to convert them.

Also should have shallow update 3 weeks on at 142 and barge tender result is due now, good or bad.

Let’s hope it’s a good one ;) At least there’s no reason for weather excuses currently !

…..lol

I believe the second trade was Clive’s first dabble and now has skin in the game.

To be fair, Casper doing far better than most of AIM over last couple of weeks !

Some good articles from the Astana times re Kazakh growth and the risks to the economy, mainly the Russian link ie CPC pipeline disruption at Novorossiysk but i can't see that happening with China's increasing influence in Kaz.

Thought there might be news on Casper this week . Maybe tomorrow but we won't wait long as they need to update on 802 as a minimum. Incident free, they should be into the targeted reservoir end of next week and i'm keen to understand why the oil shows at shallower depth as reported.

Trading volume fallen off a cliff and those invested are in the Doctor's waiting room, waiting for the next news ! Investor contribution on the BBs has dried up and i suppose there's little to say until there's a clearer picture of current situation.

https://astanatimes.com/2022/10/kazakhstan-is-ready-to-enhance-transit-potential-of-international-north-south-transport-corridor-says-kazakh-minister-in-tehran/

https://astanatimes.com/2022/10/ebrd-regional-report-kazakh-economy-shows-growth-of-3-4-percent-year-on-year-in-first-half-of-2022-risks-remain-due-to-oil-transit/

AIM market down c 35% ytd and leverage being squeezed out of the market . Our Putin isn't helping and many investors are probably moving to cash, others maybe unable to stay in the game. Some very cheap stocks on the market, especially in construction with many down over 50% and a huge buying opp coming up, especially if the geopolitical pressure eases. Don't believe Putin can continue his ground operations if supply lines get damaged and the mobilisation of unskilled canon fodder, hopefully the message gets through to the Russian population and to those who can make the difference internally.

Meanwhile oil prices remain high but i don't understand what drives the domestic prices but hopefully Casper can sell most of it's oil for the highest prices to the MRs in Q4.

Pure speculation but i was expecting to see an update this week on 802 and maybe barge/shallows but it won't be long if they're drilling problem free.

7 small sells today and no buying as i believe the risk takers have had their feed at the bottom when sp hit low 2s. Money to be made for those solvent enough to take advantage.