Member Info for KumKuat

If they didn't publish, they would have to have a very good reason and any delay would be bad news and i can't thing of a reason to do so unless they were in the shoite. I don't have to publish Interims but if i'm late with FY accounts then you'll get a stay of execution before getting struck off Companies House. You would have to give a very good reason, maybe extending year end by 6 months but usually that's bad news as you need the extra 6 months to try and make the accounts acceptable.

Interims next week, let's hope there are surprises but the good kind.

DD,

Seriously, if they delayed Interims, that would be bad news not good. They have to publish within 3 months as a liisted entity or have very good reason not to. Selling out wouldn't affect this and i can't see any reason to delay ??

Meanwhile, there is a little bottom feeding going on with 330k buys and maybe a little tick up coming. Would be good to see some buying into the close pre Interims publication.

Bid back to 1.1m ?? and up to 650k @ 2.901 again, max buys 200k @ 3.025. MMs are controlling the game and i'm hoping they have an empty pantry come news.

C'mon Daisy, let's here the prophecy :)

Hi DD,

C'mon you teaser. Are you hoping for share buy backs or a Chinese/Korean take out ?

The trading has been odd as of late. The bid on Friday was the highest i've ever seen in 15 years, 2.45m @ 3p and then the 1m trade @ 3p was published which was a sell and bid reduced to 1.2m. Then another late reported 1m trade yesterday @ 3.025p, a Friday trade and would have been a buy based on price agreed. Could've been a rollover, i haven't looked at timings but looks like a buy but the market has reacted as if they were both sells and the bid weakened considerably. As usual, in the dark.

The worst news we could receive would probably be production decline v expected increase with 141. If they had issues exporting because of congestion in the system due to CPC maintenance, they could still sell all their oil to the domestic market at netbacks of $17.

Next would be operational failure on 141 and problems on 802 but even if 141 was unsuccessful and they were producing 3500bopd+, they are still in great shape financially and considerably better than 20/21.

They're just as likely to publish good news ie prod maintained, 141 added 1000bopd and up to 5k capacity, 151 and first horizontal ? A news embargo has knocked investor confidence and peeps have sold, maybe many other factors ie Putin, general market malaise etc. Most stocks are down and the market uncertainty is probably squeezing the leverage and people are moving to cash and other safe havens.

Sp has declined 45%+ in 3 months. I believe that's a joke hence i've got a little trading pot as i believe we'll see the inevitable bounce but will it be sustained, that depends on the news.

Interims, next Tuesday for me.

I think i'm joining the downtrodden club and stashing £60-70k away every year to help with the car fund :)

I'm not it in for the divis but they obviously are so not much we can do about that. Their big payday is still the deeps but after $100m of sunk costs to date, maybe they want to go one at a time and decide whether they want to continue to commit to the money pit or not. Maybe they actually charter the rust bucket and that pays for the additional drilling but after the AGM i sense that they'd issue a 'special divi' rather than put the lot into the operational effort.

802 will be at c 3600-4000m end of next week and will be into the pay zone middle of October. Best COS from any deep and they know the oil is there after the Soviet era blow out from a well in close proximity. Fingers x'd that this is the start of the deep success story. Where's my pills ;)

As Investeg has stated below, peeps are holding positions and it's PIs that are selling/buying. As far as we're aware nothing has changed operationally since the FY accounts update and yet the sp has declined 47% !! Shallows worth 2.9p? well we know that is codswallop but it's us PIs that dictate sp and obviously many have had enough and hence the current sp.

Somm, re deeps, i believe they're doing the right thing by drilling 802 and then A5 side-track before and then A7 possibly simultaneously. I believe they can do all that and pay divis if the shallow production can be maintained @ 5kbopd pm.

I tghink our Putin has lost the plot, mobilising the population ! All energy workers mandated to sign up immediately !!, that's really going to c*ck up their production effort and probably tighten supply further. Chances are that $100+ oil will be with us soon if supply is reduced.

Putin fast tracking the Annexation process and we know what next step will be. They will claim any attack on the Donbas as an attack on Russia and another excuse to escalate again. Has to be stopped, hopefully the dissent will build and fix will come from within.

They won't.

Investeg,
Lull in news is certainly not unprecedented with Casper ! This has happened many times and they can can hide behind the fact that they want to update on a quarterly basis but not when there ae material events that have happened in that quarter. A8 'non commercial' result was released in FY accounts not a separate RNS and there are many instances where expected news has been delayed. 141 news was due 3 months ago. I would suggest that there have been problems as why not release the news ? or are they wanting the sp to languish down here to make Divi yield more attractive when declared ? Positive news on 141 etc after AGM would've sent the price northwards but a 5k cap and less active operational campaign did the opposite.

Et al
Minimum i want to see is a healthy set of financials, the best since incorporation in 2007. Continued production @ c 3500bopd and confirmation that no interruption to oil sales as a result of pipeline closures/maintenance. I know their oil doesn't go through CPC but are other routes affected as big boys like Chevron have to look at other routes taking priority over Casper ?

As communicated, we're benefitting from increased prod, almost 250% and higher domestic and export prices. Domestic crashed to $6 and Export to $20 or less and production was c1.4k bopd in 21. Hugely improved financial position that has allowed them to pay off debts and no requirement to go to market to fund current and future operational effort. Losing c $30m pa re the Sanctions discount, maybe less as Brent/Urals discount has narrowed so hopefully we'll see that in future numbers, who knows, KEBCO may helping too ?

No negatives apart from the fact that we're in mushroom mode and not a clue as to what's happened since AGM. I'd have expected to see some buying on the run up to news but not even the pumpers are willing to take a punt. 7 days to find out, my money is on Tues 27th although it wouldn't surprise me to see it tomorrow.

TT

Somm,

I don't think you're far off with your numbers, i would go a little less c $10m by end of Aug and c $13m. CAB at time of reporting, i'd say $3-4m as they're drilling 802 and hopefully 141 and 151 too so considerable spend, maybe $8-10m CAB by year end as limited operational activity . Enough to pay a sensible divi in December at a silly yield.

Every day that the war drags on is a bad day for Putin and Russia. Dissent will build and he needs to do something quickly to regain the upper hand but let's hope that does not involve tactical weapons, chemical or nuclear. A cornered rat, let's hope he's not got any big buttons in that bunker ! The west are maintaining their commitments to military aid and the longer range weapons are helping the Ukrainians go on the offensive. There is a huge human cost to this war and the atrocities that the world will become aware of.

We are now in a Cold War with sides lining up and will be interesting how Zelensky's address to the UN tomorrow will consolidate support and the ongoing condemnation of Russia's invasion. UN voted 101-7 with 19 abstentions so still 19% sitting on the fence, will this change this week ?

I don't know how Putin brings it to an end without stepping the line with more potent weaponary but for all our sakes, let's hope not. Let's hope the key influencers in Russia are plotting his removal before he forces Russia into a place thay can't come back from.

After a pleasant intro ! back to Casper. Interims are upon us, probably next week and let's hope that they've maintained production at healthy levels or even added to it. Also we get a concise and accurate operational update including some divi clarity as to when the declaration is to be made. Who knows, we may get news prior to the release of the Interims.

Just back from Windsor, paying respect. Very moving, god rest her soul .

Incentives, pie in the sky currently but shows what their expectations are.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/caspian-sunrise-plc--casp-/rns/award-of-long-term-incentives/201906051208442528B/

Responding to your ‘Maybe the have already crashed the price and they are now holding it……..’ ie bad news

Badge, volume is low with the occasional biggie thrown in but they’re rare. As I’ve stated, I think it’s a simple case of disappointing message re the MJF 5k ceiling, I think many PIs were expecting far more following company comms re focussing on the shallows and taking advantage of higher crude. Also no follow through on 141 and Divis, selling ensued and back to 3p :( I thought they were close to a deal on the CE but no update .

As I see it, they’re in a good place financially to exploit their asset base, maybe add to it providing it’s not more ‘pony’ assets , if that happened it would be the last straw for me .

Geopolitical climate improving and chance to improve our oil revenues if we can achieve prices near Crude . Our sp is on its arze and as I see it, there are loads of bags coming our way.

Tick, tock :)

Nellie,

I’d like to see they were all buys but I believe the 1m had to be a sell as the online bid was c700k shares online at 3.01. The bid volume was 2.45m at its highest but then dropped to 1.2m after the trade and price to to 2.9p.

McQ,

Bad news ? recently it’s being quite the opposite with horizontal successes and SY back online. Only bad news was A8 but that was consistent with all the deep wells to date. If they wanted this at 1p, they could take it there easily, instead they’ve plodded on and prod is more than 250% up on 21 numbers.

Not going Private. Our biggest concerns would be MJF depletion or lack of oil sales as a result of CPC but hopefully not and they’d find other routes as Kaz has had to do.

Lots to update on and we’ll know soon enough .

Yep.

The trading beats the hell out of me. 1m a side traded in 7 trades but i haven't got a clue what's going on ?? 6 buys and a whopper 1m sell but the bid and ask all over the place. 2.45m on the bid after the 330k trade and ask tightened to 100k or less. Bid price raised to 3.001 and looking as if it's about to go and bang, 1m sell and bid back to 1.2m @ 2.9p ? Could sell at 3.01 in size and buy at less ? not a scooby and games being played above my pay grade.

Bull,
Awax only picking up on my post yesterday re shelving or farming the deeps on a total failure scenario and changing direction to Wind Farms.

Wasn't Konil that sold, it was Toggle or maybe JohnSwan. Lots of holders have probably reduced holdings or thrown in the towel and that's their call. I'll stay with it until the deep program is successful, farmed out or canned or until i see reason to dump. Anybody holding this for years has dodged a bullet in 20/21 during Covid and probably another one after the invasion. Actually anyone long term investor has dodged lots of bullets here but the assets are still in play and we've seen what a deep success can do to the sp, A5 showed us that.

As far as i can see, our production is up almost 250% on 21 numbers, the oil price has increased dramatically, both domestic and export and they're allegedly going to pay divis. Providing that's factual then why is the sp @ 3p when the Putin threat has reduced ? Simple reason, sentiment and credibility and only doing what they say they're going to do will change this.

Not going pop, not being invaded and in far better financial health than i can remember. Soon find out what's been going on in H1 financially and operationally since June.

China represent over 20% of Kazakh trade and growing into other areas.

‘No matter how the international situation changes, we will continue to strongly support Kazakhstan in defending its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, firmly support the reforms you are carrying out to ensure stability and development and oppose the interference of any forces in the internal affairs of your country,” Xi told Tokayev.’

https://astanatimes.com/2022/09/chinas-president-xi-jinping-pays-state-visit-to-kazakhstan-confirming-excellent-relations-between-neighbouring-countries/