Member Info for KumKuat

Tyr,
Re CE, we're close to getting the Tender result so let's hope we don't need to go to market again.

Yep, great to see the Block in map format and maybe i was a bit premature in my pointed note to Casper. I'd feel a lot more comfortable with CE cash in the bank which gives them options re deep drilling. I want to see A5 re-drilled as that's been the most promising op to date.

Let's see if we get lucky with CE and A8 as a starter for 10, maybe 142 back online. 2.3p ? i don't get it.

Thanks for posting.

My first reaction was another sweetheart deal for KO but maybe baby Tengiz is lurking below ?

Is a buy and so are the recent 2.31p trades but we are being held back by selling. I said i wouldn't add, i have as i didn't believe it would ever get down here again but will be outing a few on the route back north.

We have sellers down here. Personally i don't get it but could be more forced sells on leveraged plays but good to see buyers helping themselves to a few at this level. A chunky 618k buy and i think i may know who's having a good feed down here and the fact that you can buy volume obviously means we have a seller(s). Need some positive news to light the touch paper.

Clive confirmed shallow production as per Interims and operations continuing. Barge tender news expected anytime and 802 news too. I'm hoping that they constantly update if the oil shows are continuing. They could drill to TD and core but if oil shows continue then they could have a reservoir starting in the mid 3000m level and could be continuous ? or it could be different intervals ? It's encouraging that they have significant oil shows and not long to find out what they've uncovered.

Casper M/Cap dipped to £47m yesterday and peeps were calling down to the 1p level which would have valued the company @ £20-30m wnen PBT is likely to be £18m +, almost 1:1 but maybe will be if they get the shallows sorted, 802 could be the first bit of icing on the cake. Been here several times before on the deeps and scepticism will remain with many investors until the flow tests are completed but we live in hope, especially as 802 is meant to have the best cos.

We've also been close on the CE charter allegedly so we'll find out if they're successful, probably this month but could be any day. A £20m cash injection would be very nice and would generate a 'special divi' and more importantly would get the Casper name back on the radars.

SP on it's arze, MJF/SY cash cow will continue to fund operations and the upside is still in play, no guarantees but CE, 802 and A5 are all material, the latter being the most lucrative.

Already up 15% from yesterdays low and likely to continue.

As always DYOR applies and people have agendas. Only one person responsible for decisions and money to be made and lost.

Good luck with the 1ps guys.

JD,

Yep, ole Clive throws around the adjectives like confetti. Significant - https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/significant

If they’ve found oil at this level, they will continue drilling and if it’s continuous then they’ll start coring surely. Last Soviet well in close proximity to 802, blew out so finding oil was expected. If this was the first well a la A5, the sp would be flying but their track record and credibility have put paid to that until they prove the first one, a good start.

M/cap at £63m and from the facts, we could make $20m + PBT. Yep, they’re continually messing up but the production is up considerably on 20/21 and now the domestic prices have increased from $6 during Covid to$32 and the opp to sell at $38 to MRs with minimum costs and as you say, not affected by Putin and pipeline games.

2.8p ? much that they score isn’t goals, the upside is intact and we still have to be patient. As we know, things can change very quickly here .

For those of you not familiar with proceedings at the previous 801 well on the Yelemes block. 802 is not far away from 801 but the structure must be different if oil being encountered already. I’m going to ask a few questions today as to when they’re going to take core samples if working logs are already showing SIGNIFICANT oil shows. If the oil bearing interval is encountered here as stated, that’s 1000m above where they expected to find it !!

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/x2do6lw

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/wkm8yvr/export

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/w9z2ddr

McQ,
All interims are unaudited.

Re spreadsheets, I don’t need a spreadsheet to work out profitability and the rise in domestic and MR route is fortuitous for Caspian. I’m keen to understand how quickly they get 142 and 145 back in production and then back to stuck pipes on 141. MJF is the cash cow and as of now, it’s more profitable than it was in H1 and they need to sell all oil to MR if that’s possible.

802, encountering oil at this level ? Didn’t happen at 801 . Will be interesting to see what they have here.

https://www.rogtecmagazine.com/roxi-petroleum-galaz-money-received-bng-deep-well-801-potential-100m-oil-bearing-interval/

So regardless of split, what is the net price achieved from $38 ? and compare that to the net numbers achieved in H1.

Question to all. What is the net number achieved from export, domestic and MR ?

Un, you're in spreadsheet mode so what numbers are you pumping in currently for the above.

McQ,

Not worried about oil prices as out of their control but am worried about production which is ? I'm concerned about both as all investors should be amd i want to focus on the facts as presented. 2 simple questions, what are they producing today and what is the net price being achieved.

They announced 142 success at 1400 bopd and also that SY back online giving a max capacity of 4000bopd. They have now got a rising water cut in wells 142 & 145 so they are offline and 141 has a stuck pipe. They have to workover wells constantly to sustain production. Current levels or recent levels at 2264bopd so other wells are producing including the 153 and 154 horizontals. Their stated target is 5000 bopd capacity from MJF so their task is to get 142/145 and 141 online which would get them there. As stated 153/154 producing so workovers required to reduce water cut.

Bull/Botbot,

I'm not the defender of the faith here, i'm an investor with skin in the game. Loads of positives ? There are 3 positives and one big negative ie Domestic @ $32, MR @ $38 and 802 already has significant oil shows. Negative, production has decline to May level pre 142 was declared a success. To counter this, the netbacks from MRs is more than export and they are the facts as i know them. If they carry on producing 2254 bopd without getting 142/145/141 online, will they be more profitable than H1 ? yep, everything else adds to the pot.

Investment choices sit with the investor. I stay invested to see 802, shallow developments, the outcome of rust bucket tender and Divi declaration. As always, dyor and only one person looking in that mirror.

If oil now sold to mini refineries at $38 gross, they’re more profitable on that basis as no treatment or transportation costs and taxation at domestic cost level.
Current nos
$25.6 Rev
$7.3m profit after tax
414k barrels = $17.64 net
They were netting $17 from domestic oil at $25 gross but that included treatment & transportation. The net receipts will now be above $30 and I’ve asked Casper to clarify this and the current bopd number.

Gross turnover will decline but that’s the vanity number and if all oil can be sold to MRs then we’re far better off , just need to get production back to 4.5k with 142 and 145 back online.

Crude would have to go above $100 for them to consider exporting again or if discount narrowed considerably. Will be far more profitable in H2 providing their producing the current prod level as a minimum and oil sold to MRs.

They have considerable upside if -;
Prod levels increase
Sanctions discount reduces
Citing trader comms for export

Meanwhile they’re netting $30

To finish
Bad news - prod decline / export discounts
Good news - 802 significant oil shows / Domestic and MR oil prices

If you calculate netbacks from domestic/MR, they are far higher than export which is great news. Just need to get MJF flowing at capacity as communicated and we'll soon know where we are on 802. Should be at 4600m by end of October but they will probably start coring earlier if their encountering oil intervals now.

H2 will deliver more profitability than H1 even at 2264bopd, hopefully they sort the workovers and add some SY volume. If prod was at the expected 3500+ bopd, this would heading back to 5p with 802 in the background fuelling speculation to take sp back to double figures. Problem is, they continually hit roadblocks, 2 steps forward and 2 back.

Still all to play for.

Summary ? some good stuff and some not so good hence the sp reaction today.

Financials
They were a little bit better than what i was expecting. GP holding up @ 75%, PBT higher than i expected @ $10m, CAB inline with expectations. $61 oil price received during H1 ($86/$25) but the sanctions of $30-35 hurting revenue/profit.

Production
A tad lower than i was but huge growth on 21 same period. 142 @ 1400 only announced at end of May.

Sine the Interims, July - Sep
Operational
141 stuck pipe
142 & 145 out of action
802 @ 3800, significant oil shows
Block 8 acquisition, completion in 2024
CE - another Tender

Financial
Urals discount widened to $40
Crude declined to current level $85
Taxation @ gross Brent not discounted rate ?
Domestic up to $32
Mini refinery prices @ $38
Can sell export direct to end customer Jan 23 - saving $10 comms per barrel (export)
Divis still H2 2022

One thing i didn't want to see was MJF prod decline but that's what we got with 142/145 & 141. 142 was declared at 1400bopd at end of May taking capacity to 4000bopd with 141 planned to take us to 5000. Recent production @ 2264 bopd and does that mean where we are now. Makes sense if 142/145 out of action currently.

They have stopped export sales to focus on sales to mini refineries @ $38 and $32 to domestic. If they could sell all their oil to MRs, they will be netting back $30+ as taxes are less and no transportation costs as oil is collected directly from wellhead, untreated, saving costs. That's a better rate than they'd have achieved in H1 from export net so H2 numbers will be far better without export. Export @ $85 less $40 and taxed @ $85 before transportation, the MR route is a far better way to go ! that is good news, just need to get 142/145 back online and fix stuck pipe on 142.

Caspian Explorer tender. That was discussed at AGM and if it's the only barge in town then surely they succeed. Probably only fail if project gets pulled or if an offshore platform built.

Block 8. I wrote to Clive this am as i'm sure others did to explain **** up. Funded by proceeds as per new RNS but that won't be til 2024. Production was 800 bopd, now 110bopd and don't know what's going on there but at first glance i'd be anti this project but maybe better than an Oraziman wind farm !!

802- Already encountered significant oil shows and only at 3800bopd ? Didn't encounter oil til 4536m @ 801, is it a different structure ? Threw in the 'high oil pressures' so is that Carverspeak for tough drilling ! If it wasn't for their drilling history, the sp would have jumped on this as they're finding oil but the 2 questions remain, is it commercial and can they get it to flow without issue.

Re Divis, forget them until they get shallows up to 4-5k and they've got a win from 802 but that won'thappen, they'll pay them in Dec,
Best news for me was the MRs piece and the fact that their netbacks have increased considerably. MR oil goes to domestic market and that

Saints, it needs clarification as they have contradictory statements in the Interims. One @ $5 fro proceeds and i'd say that's what it will be but it's followed with a comment that it will be paid from BNG proceeds.

McQ,
Thank you for the reminder :) I hate Monday updates as it's the busiest day and i'm always on the road and then into the usual management meeting routine. I haven't read in detail, only scanned through and lots of questions for me. Biggest concern was production and yep, they've had issues with 141/142 and the Urals discount has gone the other way. Counter that with increased Domestic price and Mini Refinery improved pricing and hence the move away from export as net backs will be similar as taxed on gross Brent not Urals ? that is odd.

Block 8 needs clarification and Clive as commentary not clear. My initial thought is it can't be paid from current BNG production and needs clarification along with the detail on the opportunity.

802 as expected but oil shows already ? expected payzone at 4600m+ when looking at 801 so need to understand that.

As always, i will have a proper read later and ask the usual clarification questions and Block 8 definitely needs another RNS.

Yep, 25% decline in just over a year and the Tenge depreciation at 15%. Great time to pay those Divis ;)

I'm obviously being a tad slow here as i don't know of any 'good' reason for delay. Casper don't have to have Interims audited and they'll be out. No need to spell out DD, let's see what transpires next week but it'll be business as usual for me.