Member Info for KumKuat

https://www.caspiansunrise.com/about/russian-sanctions/

https://uk.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data

Casper have communicated a $30-35 discount to Crude but that isn’t the current number. Urals is selling at c 20% discount is c $20 and haven’t got a straight answer from company re exact number. Still struggling to understand the real net backs from export as it should be c$66 for August net of oil traders share of $10 or is this number higher ? After tax and distribution costs the net achieved should be $$35-40 but I believe they’re getting $25-30 but don’t know why ?

Tenge is still devalued by 12% yoy which is good news for 50% of their cost base do the Interims will be interesting and I want some clarity on the true net backs.

Still very profitable but according to Casper, losing 30-35% as a result of sanctions whereas discount is 20% ?

ASC,

You may have something there. The CP couldn't buy as they would have been in a whitewash scenario. The AMs definitely fitted the bill, a quick sale to retain a 10% block of shares. As always, the PIs are in mushroom mode .

Re 802 progress, i wouldn't be surprised to see them at the start of the reservoir and the coring at 4 months or a little less so could get an update pre Interims. We've had the successful coring, vuggy oil cores etc with A5,A6 and A8 but as yet we're still have nothing to show for it. If 802 is the easiest well with the highest COS then let's hope that Mr Shin can make the difference with the result. Can't blame him for A8 failure as it was non commercial but hopefully if the oil is there and in commercial quantities, he can bring it home a la the horizontal successes and a few bonuses for the team :)

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/wkm8yvr

Sinopec drilled 801 and RNS above showed that they were at 4649m after c 135 days of drilling, that included drilling through the Winter. We are currently at 90 days although i suspect that they started drilling pre the 1st June so they could be getting into oil bearing zones pre Interims publication ?

September tomorrow and Interims will be out in 3 weeks or so but hopefully we have news updates before they're published. They only had $1m CAB as of end of June and 141 additional and would have only seen the additional cash from 141 Jun to current date so hopefully we'll see a far better CAB position at time of publication.

Oil price hugely volatile and swung $10, over 10% in a couple of days and no wonder the Oil Traders are shunning the market as impossible to forecast with so many geopolitical challenges around the globe. As stated, you could see anything in the $75-150 range probably as there are so many factors that could push it either way.

Hi Tyr,
Yep, all the 3.07-3.09s are buys regardless of how reported. Much that we have sellers, it's all a matter of opinion and at 3p this is a steal, good luck with it. If it dropped lower then it would spark a real buying frenzy as that would be stupid, it's stupid enough already but everybody makes money from these levels unless Putin gets really silly but that's very unlikely. Let's hope that you've picked the bottom or worst case, very close to it.

£67 m/cap and probably 5000 bopd for next 15 years+. Crude @ $100 and much that we can't predict the future, this sp is a joke but currently that joke is on us but for how much longer ;)

Hoody25,
Unfortunately our Putin has seen PIs sell this down and i agree the company scores own goals with their comms which result in PI selling. Putting a ceiling on shallow production was a downer for many and the lack of 141/Divi news has created a mini sell off. Even today a few more chunky sells even at this price, 750k sells 500k buys and the 391k trades are either BednIsa or rollovers.

KO ain't earning any interest from his $6.4m loan after the D for E swap and i'm sure he'd like to recover the lost annual interest of c $450k ! Mushrooms, back in the drawer !

Average daily volumes on Casper is very small except when good/bad news hits or there is a rampathon on and the P&D crew are in full flow. This stock is traded by PIs and they dictate the price. The 421 shareholder stat may be factual as 300m (probably less) divided by 400 or so investors = 750k average holding. Some crazy PIs like myself are holding volume and it wouldn't surprise me to see that 10 PIs could hold 70m shares and that would take the average down to 590k for the rest or 460k if the FF is only 250m. If these numbers are correct then the number of PIs could be as small as 400 or if you halved the average holding then 800 players, that's a very small number but i don't believe it's that high.

The good news is that the sp can spike on small buy/sell volume as the FF is small and KO/WCP aren't playing in the game so supply becomes an issue in a good news scenario. I can see this running back into the 5s pre the Sept Interims but will likely fall off if it's the existing base of PIs that dictate the price. The company state that they want new investors and that will only come with the right news. Continued shallow success won't do this, they will just strengthen the financial position of the company UNLESS they realise greater returns with the KEBCO rebrand. We need to see news that can create the breakout scenario and that can only come from the deeps and Divi payments, suppose KEBCO additional $20-30m will help too.

SP should be double where we are now as a minimum but geopolitics playing a part on the discount and this stock will get traded in the 3-5.5p range until we get the long awaited deep, great regular divi payments and maybe KEBCO. All of these change the attractiveness of the investment and may change the current trading/investing behaviour of the existing PI base.

Almost forgot the rust bucket charter but that will add to the Divi pot so could be a significant contribution to attracting new investors.

Tokayev has to and is toeing that political tightrope. I don't see Russia stopping exports through the CPC but yes there's a risk that oil finds new markets in the East but then Kaz is jumping from the frying pan back into the fire. Tokayev is trying to build string relationships with as many countries as possible and limit dependence on any one,a very difficult task, especially in the energy sector. Shutting out the West would destroy the relationships with the Oil Giants ie Shel Chevron, Exxon, ENI, Total etc. Tokayev has no intention of doing that and will look to strengthen relationships with the West and Europe. By not supporting Russia's 'special operation' in Ukraine, he's made his intentions known and that isn't Russia and China. Yep, they're huge trade partners but Tokayev wants to spread the load and avoid the threat of the largest players playing the blackmail card.

Looks like the Ukraine war will continue for months yet, especially if the West want to keep the pressure on Putin by supplying advanced weapons. The Kherson offensive shows that Ukraine will not stop their defence/attacks if western support continues to help them in their plight. Huge pressure on western economies with interest hikes coming thick and fast and will that change the resolve of the western states involved or will they have to mput more emphasis on their domestic agendas with increasing inflationary pressure.

Prices are going up, energy, interest rates, food, cars, almost everything. The employee wants more cash but that fuels the inflationary spiral imo and not the answer. Need a period of austerity which will affect the economy as GDP declines, as people tighten their belts but we need to get on top of this asap to return economies to a growth cycle, especially the UK . A very difficult months ahead and Putin is a huge part of the problem and who knows, somebody may do us a favour ! One man accountable for huge distress across the world but hey, that could be the case for any of the superpowers if they went rogue.

Meanwhile, Casper are pumping more oil than ever, Crude back up at $105, hopefuly that means that our Divi pot is building nicely. Got top be some operational news soon.

Yep, they were running on fumes through the Pandemic and the £1m Placing was evidence of that and KO wasn’t willing or incapable of funding operation ? Don’t believe they’d have gone pop, instead, dilution would’ve been the result of Covid pandemic persisted. Many other companies would’ve folded too.

Not going Private, not going pop, quite the opposite, profitable and continuing to build cash which could give them options going forward.

Sp on its arze as more sellers than buyers, simples. Yesterdays 550k sale was from a long term PI who’d had enough, not surprising with the continued poor comms.

I still see considerable upside even without the deeps. This will bounce again , back into the 5s and the news will decide if it goes higher and breaks out of this range. Many will trade it, good luck to them, many will exit and sone will stay the course waiting to see deep updates snd divi payments.

Fundamentals underpin sp and some but geopolitical situation and maybe the management not helping the situation.

Money to be made whatever your strategy is and who knows, this may retrace further which I thought was very unlikely pre AGM but hey, sp and fundamentals are disconnected and some will take advantage of that. I’m still waiting for the pump !

Wouldn't force a whitewash situation as they could get other groups like the Al Marris involved to probably take a chunk and ensure KO/WCP aren't forced to make a bid.

All entitled to our opinions but if they wanted to supress the price, why not crash it, force PIs out and buy back the c15% in FF, no need to take it Private. Issue loads of bad news and force PIs out, simple. That isn't the agenda, the volume is tiny and lack of buying means that we are bouncing along at this level. Peeps sold at 5p due to ceiling that the company put on the shallow program, a less active operational schedule in H2 and a lack of divi clarity. Add in Putin's games and maybe we're a little too high risk for many investors.

The sp will bounce from here if 141 positive and more clarity on divi timings, maybe an update on KEBCO too. 802 drilling in the background and i'm expecting to see the 70% bounce from here pre Interims and the break out from the mid 5s will depend on the magnitude of the news, aimho :)

https://www.managementstudyguide.com/top-five-challenges-facing-the-chinese-economy.htm

Lots of stuff to read on Chinese economy challenges and 5 mentioned here are the key ones. Cost of funds to fuel continued growth will be key but US and increasing rates will damage spending power. China depends on US consumers and much that the Chinese domestic economy needs to evolve. The Chinese need as many trade partners as poss.

They want to grow business with countries like Kaz, those rich in energy resources. Russia are messing around with pipelines which affects trade but also will cut energy supply whilst driving up costs at a time where growth is declining and the Chinese govt will continue to press Putin with regards to energy exports.

Tokayev will be building closer ties with all the bigger players, trying to spread the load and dependency on a few. The 80:20 rule applies to many businesses, dependant on the 20% who generate 80% of the revenue. The Ukraine war has highlighted the energy dependency on Russia, Covid highlighted the huge dependency on China for manufacturing and the ensuing supply chain crisis, all fuelling inflation an set to continue.

Next 6 months are going to be the toughest for many economies around the world and Kaz are doing a good job with GDP growth but not if Putin carries on with his games but he then he risks upsetting his ally to the East. As stated, Putin is pushing Kaz and others to deploy new strategies/plans to reduce the dependency risk on too few countries, long overdue for many.

The Chinese will be a deterrent to Putin and a positive for Kazakhstan as Putin less likely to play his games. Meanwhile oil holding up and oil companies will continue to build revenues. Hopefully our little minnow is doing the same and at some point all invested get to make a few quid :)

https://news.am/eng/news/717181.html

https://astanatimes.com/2022/08/cpc-temporarily-shutdowns-two-single-point-moorings-after-defects-were-discovered-on-subsea-equipment/

The Ukraine war looks like dragging on for the next 6 months unless there is an escalation in type of weapons used. Both armies will be be battle weary and resorting to artillery fire as both sides dug in. Going to be very sad for all concerned as Winter approaches and humanitarian crisis will be exacerbated, hopefully support will continue but many will argue that their own countries have crises to deal with as a result of the inflationary pressures caused by Putin.

Where will oil go over next 4 months ? don't think anybody knows and volatility will continue. Iran deal could add 1m bpd, US will stop their 1.5m bpd injection, Russia playing their games re supply, OPEC+ playing their games to manage supply and then it's down to demand ? Could be anything but volatility is guaranteed.

Expecting some buying pre news and many Caspian traders know that there is probably a 70%+ return coming on this stock especially if 141 is positive and initial divi declared. Got to break out of the P&D cycle but as stated many times, we need the right news to do that.

DD, When i meant first material news, i meant on A8 ie first gas/oil shows and coring.

Interims, historically have been 3week in Sept so i'm expecting operational updates before then but i've been expecting news to follow the AGM ! nothing new there.

Clive has never paid a penny of hos own money on Caspian stock, his 2m came from salary sacrifice during Covid and the only Director who has paid for stock is Limerick and his wife. Clive hasn't exercised his options and obviously doesn't see the prospects that we see, but he is now back on full salary.

141 should be down in Oz now or they actually didn't drill it as CC communicated or they've messed it up and re-drilled it ? 151 meant to be drilled too. 802 could be further ahead than we think -;

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/wkm8yvr

So first material news will appear in October although Casper have communicated TD in 4 months before testing etc. They have drilled many deeps now and maybe they get to TD quicker than the original 801 as they've got more experience but probably Q4 before the fun and games starts.

That leaves the Caspian Explorer but all positive commentary to date has fallen short and the first Divi declaration.

Fully expect to see some buying as news nears and if oil stays at these levels. Maybe they'll include an update on achieved oil prices. Interims due in a month so will/should/could be news before then but not 100% on that :)

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/05966431/officers

And yes ;)

ASC,
Question is, who are the independent directors ? Happy to eat humble pie but going Private is the least of our worries Imho.

Crude back at $100 but we could see anything from the 70s to the $150 over the next 6 months. Huge volatility but Casper need to prioritise the task of increasing net oil prices, its more lucrative than adding more oil. Why sell export at c$25 when they could be getting $40 by closing down the discount gap. Maybe they’re going to get or are getting KEBCO but I believe they’d have announced it.

Making money but could be making far more by looking at other selling routes to max revenues.

…lol but true