Member Info for KumKuat

JS,
Not much to say. I actually can't believe what's happened or what hasn't happened. All the work to sort the structure, KO clan having last feed at the trough with the swap and no news as expected ? The way we're going, a 0.15p initial divi will yield over 20% ! Maybe they want that outcome as obviously the sp would drop with a news embargo. FUBAR is an understatement.

Un,
141 due 2 months ago ? either a **** up or withholding news until divi declaration maybe ? The lower the share price the more attractive the divi yield ? I really did believe that the CE deal was close and hence the bullishness re divi statements. SP was primed to break out of the 5p range and all they had to do was to issue 141 and divi declaration news but no, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and even i'm getting fed up of them scoring own goals.

As you say, they have to publish news in interims but that's not good enough and i suspect news is not too far away.

I doubt if anyone attended the meeting today but could've been a great opp to have a 1:1 with Clive !

Really poor effort on the comms front and lost a real opportunity to build on the pre AGM momentum. Peeps were expecting shallow effort to continue with anger and push on to 8kbopd or more but an about turn and a manageable £5k the target figure. 141 news 2 months delayed, the Divi declaration the same and the deeps were meant to be on the back burner but not the case. Poor comms = poor sentiment = selling. Sp is disconnected from fundamental value but that's irrelevant if PIs or new players are buying into the story.

Clive, time to change that inconsistent tune that you've been playing for sooo long now, we deserve far better !

The longer the war continues, the weaker Putin will become. The casualties are mounting and what will another 6 months for his PR. Europe are well on the path to weaning themselves off Russian energy and countries like Kaz looking to do the same ie less dependency on bi-lateral relationships, replacing it with their multi-vector strategy.

Meanwhile, Russia can still survive economically by selling to China, India, Pokisran, Turkey ,getting paid in Roubles etc but they are isolating themselves from most of the world. I’m all for compounding that isolation, no travel freedoms, harsh economic sanctions etc to make it a Pariah state. The annexation of Ukraine could be just the start to imperial ambitions but if we continue to sanction, limit freedom of movement, unrest will follow and hopefully a regime change that doesn’t involve another despot.

Back to Casper.

I am really disappointed with the follow through comms since AGM. Clive must be very detached from proceedings in Kaz . To state that 141 result was imminent over 2 months ago and that divis would be declared in July ?? the barge was close to a deal etc. All poor comms and you could say it’s fibs/lies but I was really hoping that a new leaf was being turned.

Meanwhile crude bounces around in the $90s waiting for the next supply/demand stats and future direction. Casper will continue to fill the coffers but unfortunately insignificant PIs remain in mushroom mode and wait for the next feed.

McQ,
I know the history but if you think that Putin’s invasion is justified ?? as a result of no referendum in Crimea !! Russia gave Ukraine up as it did with many others as long as they signed up to the NPT. A war of this magnitude in Europe today is unforgivable, weaponising energy, threatening the world. If you think that Russia is justified on doing this, you’re in a very small minority !!

Belles,

Pop along to see Clive, he’s there tomorrow and I doubt whether there’ll be any shareholder representation so a great opp for you to have a 1:1 or anyone else ??

GI - 4k capacity so i'm expecting 3.5k ish
802 - much that TD comms stating 4 months, i'd add a month or 2

I'm interested to see the outcome of first horizontal into the Dolomite @ SY as success will add production obviously but more importantly, reserves.

They are building cash, that means options to build their asset base in a country where those with cash can take advantage :)

M/cap - £72m
H2 Turnover - $35-40m
Current production 3k bopd + pm
Production/Domestic split 65:35
Export Prices @ c $100 less $25-35 sanctions
Domestic $25
KEBCO price upgrade ?

Operational H2
Shallows
141 expected and 1 x well
South Yelemes - targetting new structure in the Dolomite @ 2,500 meters where they believe that there are significant volume of oil and increases to the reserves no.
Targeting 5k bopd by year end

Deeps
A7 drilled to 2150m by end of March and stalled. To be finished in H2 ?
A5 sidetrack to be drilled H2, early 2023 ?
802 - Drilling ahead and probably will be at 1500-2000m if announcement this month. Meant to be the well with the highest COS.

Barge
Up for charter and have applied for a tender utilising the barge in 2023

3AB
Up for sale

Dividends
Declaration in H2
First payment - meaningful ....lol
Timing - ?
Frequency regular

The Divi piece is akin to my IBS challenges...lol. Lots on the go allegedly and they can't keep schtum for much longer.

McQ, we'll soon find out and we have Interims due September so we'll have a clear understanding of H1 volumes and YTD.

Meanwhile crude heading north again and as we all know, soooo many variables affecting it. Reuters announced last that volumes substantially reduced through CPC from Tengiz and Kashagan (see link below) Kashagan operated by KNOC but Tengiz going through maintenance work or is the real reason the CPC and Putin applying pressure.

Kaz exports going up first 5 months this year but i suspect that the oil sales will be hurting if Tengiz, Kashagan offline. Putin will be applying pressure where he can but he can push Kaz closer to the West and China if he overplays his hand. News reports stating that Russia could've lost 80-90,000 troops to date in the war and there's a long way to go yet. He's not going to be able to expand his borders especially if his war machine is damaged. Wagner were hidden until recently but now they're advertising openly that they're arounfd and need more recruits to fight alongside the legends in the industry !! The longer this goes, the weaker Russian ground forces become, something has to give soon.

Also looking to ban Russians from travelling, should've done this some time ago as it will create unrest amongst the elites and the Russian people.

https://astanatimes.com/2022/08/kazakhstans-exports-significantly-increase-in-first-five-months-of-2022/

https://astanatimes.com/2022/08/bolashak-onshore-processing-facility-suspends-oil-production-due-to-gas-release-at-kashagan-oilfield/

JD,

Absolutely !! Communication from the company as below. Also added the Divi commentary from the accounts ie distributable reserves set aside and regular payments. Some peeps are getting down on Casper, i'm just continuing to nibble away as i can't believe we're down at these levels again, each to their own.

From FY accounts
Shallow structures
All of the oil produced in 2021 was from the MJF structure. The production capacity at the MJF structure has increased to 3,750 bopd, with seven wells producing and a further two wells planned before the year end, including Well 141 which is due to re-enter production shortly following a horizontal drilling workover.
Following the award of the export status at the South Yelemes structure we have been able to re-open wells there, which were shut in for the whole of 2021. The production capacity of these existing wells is approximately 300 bopd. As noted above we plan to drill a new well at a depth of 2,500 meters exploiting horizontal drilling targeting oil in the dolomite.
Our target with these new wells is as soon as possible to increase production capacity to 5,000 bopd solely from our shallow structures.
Investor Presentation
Production capacity approx. 4,000 bopd from BNG shallow structures & targeting 5,000 by end 2022

From FY accounts
Divis
We have worked to create sufficient distributable reserves to allow dividends to be paid. This required a formal Capital Reduction to cancel the share premium account and the deferred shares to boost distributable reserves. The Capital Reduction was approved by shareholders in April 2022 and approved by the UK High Court in June 2022.

The Group then expects to declare and pay dividends on a regular basis, subject to the comments set out in the Chairman's Statement.

Definitely a bit of PI capitulation down here and some shrewd peeps picking up c 500k at close of play.

I'm focussing on the facts as i see them and unless they're lying, we should be producing c 4000bopd (capacity) from existing wells and 141 should add to that unless it's had problems. Regardless, they're producing c 3x previous production and crude in the mid $90s but no ideas of current netbacks, yet.

Meanwhile, while Casper wallows, TXP had some positive news today and PANR is edging northwards. Shel also doing ok although VTY and RR are lagging behind.

C'mon Casper, time for you to go on a positive run.

There definitely are !!

Market very tight @ 3.21-3.22. The buys are at 3.22/3.23 and sell at 3.21 but no volume. Everybody waiting for the next news to and maybe tomorrow pre Wed meeting ?

Crude in the mid $90s deciding the next leg of the journey and would be good to understand KEBCO impact.

Putin at risk of escalating conflict with the Zaporizhzhia shenanigans. Key stage of the war along the Dnipro river, 350km frontline and could be the deciding factor in the war.

Never boring !!

Hi Mike, bleeding eck, you do love a spot of diving. Not for me, the sea is warming and you’ll be seeing all sorts of creatures with big teeth hitting our shores, especially the south west. Last time I was out off Salcombe, one of the boats caught a couple of large tuna ? ?

I’ll stick with the land lubber status, looking for those neon coloured cyclists. Ordered a new motor that should wobble a few as I slowly edge past ;).

News this week ?

https://wp-caspiansunrise-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/07/CS-2021-Accounts-GM-Circular-24-6-22-Final-word-PDF.pdf

Anybody going ? An opportunity to have a 1:1 with leadership . Not sure who’s going but probably Clive and Edmund ? Possibly some news pre the event ?

CC, shouldn’t be well attended, maybe an opp to have a sensible chat .

Mr C,

Who knows re Divis. I’m hoping for 0.6-0.8p pa and if that continues which is likely, that’s a great return and I believe the market wakes up regardless of crap comms. Putin is the worry obviously .

Mr C,

They’ll be paying Divis. They haven’t gone through all that palaver and cost not to pay them. Also our KO will want his $6.4m back and associated interest payments.

I want to know about KEBCO as if they were receiving near Brent prices, that’s like adding another 40% to their current production number !!

As each day passes, we get closer to operational news and hopefully it’s comprehensive and accurate.

From AGM slide, first Divi in H2, that leaves them plenty of time.

DIVIDENDS
STEPS TO FIRST DIVIDEND
? With the expensive BNG deep drilling obligations coming to an end we expect to have strong free cashflows to fund future dividends
? Shareholder approval for a Capital Reduction
? High Court approval received in June 2022
? First dividend expected H2 2022
POLICY
? Regular dividend payments
? Possibility for special dividend payments from the proceeds of M&A activities

https://astanatimes.com/category/business/

You know what’s coming next…lol

One thing is for sure, they’re generating cash and hopefully they invest it wisely !! It gives them options to buy other assets as long as they aren’t owned by Del Boy Oraziman and co. Maybe a new name change ? We’ve had Roxi, maybe ‘ Raquel’ Has a nice ring to it. One day Raquel, one day :)

Steady on Un, you’ll be accused of ramptastic behaviour ;-)