Member Info for KumKuat

Sp has retraced on low volume but what has changed to the fundamental value of the company ? absolutely nothing. Yep, old Clivey boy can't help himself re comms and timing but as we know, he's not the Captain of the ship and therefore Carverspeak continues.

The m/cap has dropped back to c£75m and as far as i can see they've shed £50 and the only reason is PI sentiment and the associated selling but that has zippo correlation to true value. Yep our Clive hasn't issued an operational update and divi declaration not made yet but we are discounted over 50% from the WHI valuation just for MJF/SY. Whether you think there's any value in any of the other assets or not, the sp is disconnected to true value, the question, what % is down to the geopolitical risk ?

All i know is that they're producing almost three times the oil than they were in early 21 and that is very likely to increase. The average crude price this year is $107 and $113 since war kicked off and Casper probably receiving $70-75 for their oil. Work out the sums on 4000/5000 bopd at the discounted rate and then the possible up to 30% upside if KEBCO does make the difference they expect. I know what the sums are and m/cap is less than annual turnover and that's fair value ??

They are building cash and the shallows should give them the consistent 5k bopd minimum and everything else is in for free. The deeps have been a disaster but they're carrying on. They have seen the oil flowing for 10+ days at A5 and they know it's there, they obviously believe it is as why continue to spend $ms when they could be extracting the cash through divis.

Beynon,

I look every day, I can’t find anything on KEBCO. If they’re getting increased prices, they’ll include it in next update or it may slip their minds …lol

Richy, how long ago did CC advise that we were close to completion on 141 ! History continues, numbers and timings still his weak point !! Even at AGM, close to completion, that’s 4 weeks ago ?

We’ll soon find out if continued positive news counters geopolitical drag.

I did but no answer surprisingly …lol

CC,

Yep, i coined the term 'Carverspeak' many, many years ago and it's still valid today. As you say, PIs are not important and this game is being played for the large players. Even Clive's position is at risk as KO is an Autocrat, running the business as most Kazakh leaders would be, no different to the other Elites in Kaz although Tokayev is trying to change that .

Why do many stay invested here when comms are so inconsistent and trust in leadership constantly questioned ? in my case, i'm probably in the same camp as KO & WCP, in the FOMO category, knowing that the upside potential is considerable but even if the biggie doesn't land, the shallows and poss windfall payments = double figures.

They're in the best position financially since incorporation 15 years ago with production up 200% with $100+ oil and maybe KEBCO/market arbitrage creates additional wealth. They will be able to run operations and pay divis without additional funding and CAB gives them options to buy producing assets and to expand their portfolio. The dark cloud is Putin and weaponising energy but hey that's not the end of the world as Kaz are long overdue another strategy of independence from Russian threats.

Below are the official comms from Mr Carver. He was also asked the question at the AGM "as the CAB position is far lower than many shareholders expected, are divis likely to be later this year ?" The response was 'the cash has already been put aside" and the inference was that first divi would be soon. He followed that up with that frequency could be quarterly, maybe 6 monthly and a special div for windfall occasions like 3AB sale or rusty bucket charter. Fluent Carverspeak...lol

27/6 – FY Accounts
Dividends
It has been our objective for some time to commence regular dividend payments. Not only will this reward shareholders for their continued support it should also signal to the wider investment community that the Group has moved to the next stage in its development.
We have worked to create sufficient distributable reserves to allow dividends to be paid. This required a formal Capital Reduction to cancel the share premium account and the deferred shares to boost distributable reserves. The Capital Reduction was approved by shareholders in April 2022 and approved by the UK High Court in June 2022.
In assessing the size and timing of any dividends the board will have regard to the matters disclosed in note 1.1, which include the Group's free cashflows and its existing and future financial commitments. The Board will also need to be satisfied there are no additional adverse impacts from Russian sanctions. Based on their current assessment and subject to the points noted above the Board anticipates declaring the first dividend later this year.

30/5
Dividends
On 27 May 2022 the High Court of England and Wales approved the draft order to effect the Company's cancellation of its share premium account and its deferred shares. A final hearing is expected to be held before the end of June 2022, where the Company expects the High Court will confirm the cancellation can proceed, clearing the way for Caspian Sunrise to make dividend distributions to shareholders. It is the Company's intention that such dividend distributions commence on a quarterly basis starting in July 2022.

9/3
"With oil prices at record levels and increasing production volumes we look forward to a period of cash generation. Accordingly, we intend to put resolutions to the Annual General Meeting planned for June 2022, which if passed and if approved by the UK Court, would allow the commencement of dividends with an initial dividend expected to be declared in July 2022 and with the main dividend for the year expected to be declared in December 2022."

They’re not wanting to fail, they’re simply not competent enough to flow a deep, four attempts and much remedial work over 7 years has showed that. Sunk costs are over $100m and continuing to spend to meet licence commitments as they know the oil is down there and FOMO is definitely in play. Their bonanza comes from the deeps and eventual sale of the business and the shallows will be the mechanism that funds continued remedial work and to fund Divis, possibly aided by a barge charter !

Can they flow the deeps on their own ? If 802, A7 are failures then they’ll have to a deal to partner with somebody who can bring them home.

The Al Marries put £10m in the pot, must’ve sent something that was worth that size of punt !

I stay invested to see the conclusion of the deep story unless geopolitical events force a review.

Tick, tock.

DD, I haven’t got a scooby

Their next update needs to include an update on KEBCO as it’s very material . They’re losing $25-30m pa at current production levels and that would be a huge boost to the operational effort and the divi pot.

Sp pegged to shallow reserves, yep and that’s discounted by more than 50% and zip priced in for anything else. Add in geopolitics and that’s why we’re down here. Still lots on go in H2 and I’ll take the Divis whilst waiting for the penny to drop re upside on this stock.

Badge,
Very odd but as with Casper, we have no clue as to what's going on as comms are shoite. A8, should be P&A and 802 side-track....lol. not possible unless they started drilling 4 months ago or they're telling porkies and their side-tracking from 801 !!

Operational news is overdue as it's been 11 weeks since we were advised that they were close 2 completing to shalow wells ie 142 & 141. 142 in the bag but 141 ? Also time to declare the divi if they are being factual with comms.

Meanwhile trade continues to trade at $100+ and i don't see that changing. Biden will be putting more pressure on the US oil industry as a result of the climate issues. More extreme events will accelerate the move to greener energy BUT we all know that's not happening anytime soon. Less investment into oil, less fraccing in the US at a time where they have to go cap in hand to other producing countries, all means that supply will continue to diminish.

One little slip re Nazarbayev death! he is very much alive. The crux of the issue is Russia’s commentary re not recognising Kaz as an independent state. They didn’t touch on the Stan population stats ie mainly Muslim. If Naz was in power, would it have been a different outcome ? Naz quarrelled with Putin in 2014 on the same subject so maybe he too would’ve seen the future threat to Kaz if they agreed to the repatriation of the Donbas. To agree would’ve been the end of Kaz’s multi vector strategy and Putin is now under pressure re losing influence in Kaz.

Good video posted by TB on ADVFN. Pretty much sums things up will be interesting to see how these relationships are recalibrated post the Ukraine war. One thing is for sure, Russia won’t want another military conflict on its borders and can I’ll afford to have one and imo that is VERY unlikely.

Kaz are pursuing its multi vector trade strategy and if it doesn’t, Russia will always weaponise energy so like most of Europe, Kaz needs to make other plans.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44XUviQejJA

QT,
Mine and family are with II and HL and most of the shareholder shares will be held in nominee accounts. I don't believe there will be 400 investment vehicles ie Brokers and the only ones i'm aware of are II, HL, Halifax, Barclays, HSBC, WH Ireland, Lloyds, AJ Bell. There are many more brokers but there aren't 400 of them. I believe many shareholders are holding a chunk of the stock hence the low numbe, maybe a question for Clive.

DaisyDo,

I didn't see that ? Has that been communicated ?

Somm,

802 RNS - https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/x4n50dr

There was a subsequent communication stating 4 months. Also they started end of May.

Rhertig,

2014/2015 shares on the books...lol. Some would've purchased at IPO and the 70p levels in the first 6 months of trading ! 25p high in 2014 would've been a bargain ;)

Volume is tiny but over the last few days, it's been largely selling and the bid has been weak. Almost 2 months into a 4 month drill to TD @ 802. Charter the bleedin tin can and let's see that 'meaningful' divi declaration whatever that means, pardon the pun.

Only 421 shareholders, that's without those who are spread betting.

15 shareholders hold 75% of the stock in Caspian. I believe there are other larger holders , Koreans, Kazakhs outside the WCP that hold another 10% and PIs probably hold the remaining c 15% of the FF. There are many larger holders and 60m+ of that could be held by as little as 10 holders ? that would leave probably 270m shares divided between 380-390 PIs ? roughly 700k per holder and that would probably make sense as many of those PIs could have 7 figure stakes. So i suppose my point is that the stock is tightly held and many holders are not actively trading. All sitting on the plane waiting for take of or for Putin to finish is off with a missile !

Peeps were expecting 141 result pre the AGM, CC confirmed at the meeting that it was close and 3 weeks later we're still waiting ! He also stated that the new IP would be up on the afternoon of the 30th, 14 days later and hey presto....lol. Thought we'd get the update on 141 this week but hey, maybe waiting to to include divi declaration and maybe another shallow also close to completion ?

Kaz continuing to push to attract foreign investment and i'm sure Putin is not happy that they are offering homes to western players still looking for a foothold or expansion in Eurasia.

https://astanatimes.com/2022/07/kazakhstan-is-open-for-foreign-companies-planning-to-relocate-says-deputy-foreign-minister/

Tenge up 15% in last 2 months so will be helping Casper financially. Would also be good to understand if they are achieving improved gross pricing for KEBCO.

https://www.rferl.org/amp/kazakhstan-pipeline-russia-exports-war/31932806.html

Hadn’t seen the building a pipeline under the Caspian as an option. Saw the building additional tanker plan but as we know both will take sone time but longer term plans being made that’s for sure.

https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/cpc-pipeline-operations-will-not-be-halted

We’ve seen the news on CPC but the Russian threat to Kaz GDP is the only reason Casper sp is on its arze. More countries relocating to Kaz from Russia, more investment from global trade partners and a definite strategy by Tokayev to create as many non Russian export routes as possible.

Would be good to get an update on achieved KEBCO prices with the next operational update as it will make a material difference to the Casper bank balance.

Was expecting news this week but Casper keeping us waiting again.

Evening Mike,

They’ve been talking about peak oil at Ghawar ever since I started investing many years ago. Maybe like Casper, prudently managing assets to extend lifespan ?

Supply is going to be a major problem for years to come while we wait for green energy, nuclear etc to fill the void. Many years of high prices to come imo.

And Crude back up at $106 following Saudi not agreeing to open taps. Biden can pull on the US reserve but he's reluctant to do that as he's already used a chunk of the SPR in H1 22. I believe we'll see over $100 average oil or H2 and probably getting silly in Q4 as Winter starts to kick in.

CC - Biden's trip to Saudi to talk about improving relations when we know the agenda is oil and looks like he's come up empty handed. Iran now off line following Nuclear talks, Venezuela, Brazil, Libya all on the naughty step. Less dough being into explo and infrastructure and supply is going to be a real issue. As you say, other routes for Kazakh oil and it may take time to build additional tankers, new pipelines etc but they have to build on existing road and rail .

Kaz has had great growth in 22, exports up 60% to $34.2 bn and imports with a greater number of trade partners to $17.1bn, 14$ up you for the period Jan to May. Tokayev wants to build Kazakhstan and that's by building relationships with as many partners as pos. Israel committed $360m last week and they are definitely open for business. Much that Russia and Kaz are bilaterally linked from a trade perspective, it's going to be very difficult for Russia to damage Kaz without damaging trade relations with the world.

Peeps are buying a few pre next news update this week ?