Member Info for KumKuat

https://www.euractiv.com/section/central-asia/news/russia-shuts-down-terminal-after-kazakhstan-offers-to-send-more-oil-to-the-eu/

Maybe time for Kaz to create it's own oil pipeline infrastructure instead of accessing Russian pipes. Putin is forcing Europe to wean itself off Russian blends so maybe time for US/Europe to help support western companies like Chevron, Exxon, BG, Mobil, BP etc to ensure that they can export without dependence on Russia. I'm sure these talks will be happening as Kaz will be in the same boat as Europe. Russia is forcing change and Kaz and it's partners will be moving oil by other means and maybe a huge change is needed regardless of short term pain.

DD,

Can you buy one for me too, but 2 get 1 free ? We are certainly going on a rollercoaster ride and i never saw us going back to the 3p range ! If they lock the CPC pipeline down, Putin is escalating matters and will force Kaz to make other plans and eventually new infrastructure if needed as can't be held ransom but he's doing it to all of Europe. Bog boys like Chevron with deep pockets will be helping with infrastructure and Kaz certainly don't want to be going back to Soviet control. Putin has completely ****ed it up for all Russians. They're now a Pariah state with few allies and i don't know how they ever come back from it even if Putin gets the chop ?

Crude also dipped below $100 on recession fears. CPC pipeline only supplies 1% of global oil and obviously affecting supply but obviously recessionary fears are creeping in to demand calcs.

Somm. I’m spending my Divis

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/x4n50dr

Yep, the Russians control the pipelines but Caspian do not use the CPC to the Black see marine terminal Novorossiysk-2 on the Black Sea. If they stop oil flows, they damage themselves too and escalate the war beyond Ukraine, we'd all have to worry then !!

Putin won't stop production for long as that really does escalate tensions. CPC owned 49% by Russian interests through Transneft, Rosneft, Lukoil and the remaining share through Chevron, Mobil, BG, CPC CO and KMG. Bigger boys will have to look at other routes and that could put pressure on infrastructure, yes but i can't see this ever stopping. Link below states that oil still flowing.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/crude-oil-supplies-cpc-pipeline-continuing-usual-sources-say-2022-07-06/

Somm, their oil doesn't go through the CPC ?

DD, so your guestimate for first divi payment would be 0.2p ?

ODS,

The fact is, they don't need new investors, much that they state that divis will entice them onboard. They are building production and cash and they are embarking on the divi journey which will reward investors, especially the larger players. If the oil prices stay high and they get cash injections from barge and 3AB sale, they wil pay higher divis and this becomes a great income generator for some time to come. The sp should appreciate as a result, back to double figures hopefully but the leadership aren't damaged if sp wallows here for whatever reason. They'll continue with the deeps to prove up A block and NY, commission a new CPR, book the reserves and the KO clan can exit via an acquisition. Does the sp have to go before then ? nope and it's the same PIs that will be trading this or the market likes the divi opportunity and sp trends north. If they pull off 802/A7 then naturally it gets silly but the WCP aren't concerned.

Re Clive, he does p*ss me off when he says one thing and doesn't do it. The website doesn't even have a placeholder for the IP presentation. That should be up on the website the same day as the AGM but hey, old crap habits die hard. He's back on full pay and to date, hasn't put a penny back into the company apart from the share purchase through salary sacrifice means.

141 news and divi declaration this month, we'll soon find out whether if the yield is interesting enough to see new players enter the game.

Was looking back at the share prices achieved when A5 first discovered. A lot less shares in issue then as Casper only owned 54% of BNG. 4p -26p and many peeps made a few quid then. Shows what one deep success can do but unfortunately history has shown that flowing one is not easy !!

https://www.caspiansunrise.com/investors/share-price-information/

Thanks DD.

Un, re currencies. Yep, $ strength v £ will help with UK divi payments . Tenge weakness v $ will also help with costs in Kstan.

Future oil price is an interesting one as always so many factors affecting supply demand. Supply will continue to reduce, US have eaten into a chunk of their reserves and inflationary pressures are weakening demand, Covid in China again and they're building building inventories on discounted Russian oil. You have Citibank calling $65 and JP Morgan at poss $380....lol.

I suspect the retrace is as a result of the Russian Court forcing shut down of CPC for 30 days citing oil spills. A bit like last time and maintenance updates, Russia are messing around. Caspian doesn't pump it's oil through the CPC but i suspect the recent selling is as a result of this.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kazakhstan-discusses-steps-tackle-cpc-oil-export-restrictions-2022-07-06/

Re Urals, average is $93 over last month and yep been dipping as Crude retraced to c $101 yesterday, back to $105 now so Urals probably going to trade in the $80s. Caspian believe they get prices nearer to Brent so we'll soon see as i'm sure they'll communicate when ready.

In the interim they continue to pump 4kbopd and hopefully add to it this month. Wasn't long ago that Crude was trading sub $20 and they were getting $6 for Domestic !

https://uk.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data

You're a keyboard warrior and plenty of them on the BBs. You call me childish ! happy that i agreed with a couple of your comments, you state you like Un's posting contribution, i think we both know who's childish here. Everybody entitled to their opinion but i always try to be polite and respect other peoples opinions.

If you want RA RA, have a good read on the board to see the expectation setting, 3p divis, Trillion $ company, $50m CAB, billions of barrels, £1 party, yada, yada.

You state that this probably a max 7/8p company ? If you're basing that on shallows alone then probably not far off but that is obviously affected by Brent prices and everything else valued at zip. Allegedly the CE is in very good nick and ready for it's first charter, 3AB will be sold but not recovering the purchase price and the deeps ? the company makers but plenty of time to work on them following completion of A7/802 this year. Even 8p would deliver 5+ bags from low last year and divis on top, not a bad investment for many that loaded up at the lows.

Un, as you know, some rude f*ckers on the BBs, fickle or otherwise.

Pom, poms ready….lol

CC,
I don't see large boys re-investing their divi proceeds, they'll take the cash. PIs taking divis ? will be interesting to see how many re-invest and yep, buying in the open market should help push sp up. If KO want more stock, they'll probably sell us another pup like 3AB but hopefully those sweetheart deals are a thing of the past !

Ethnic conflict but that's been going on for ever between the Uzbeks and Karakalpaks. Different from our Kaz unrest which was to do with socio-economic issues.

I have liaised with a few Caspians and many of them would re-invest the divi payment so may see a buying spree post payment ?

Hopefully 141/152, new SY take us well above 5000 bopd and whilst that's going on, we're 3 months away from the 802 result and hopefully Casper finally break their duck with 802.

Divis to be declared in July maybe ? probably following 141 and paid in Q3 ? Magnitude ? i still think it will be a small starter followed by a larger sum and maybe the barge creates an opp for an additional special one.

Looking forward to seeing the developments in Q3.

I don’t think they know how they will come as Clive mentioned qtrly, 6 monthly, a special Divi if barge landed !

Yep, they could cut down Opex/CAPEX and feed the shareholders . They have bought all pipes and casing for deeps so they’ll complete them and costs will go down in 23 .

A small starter for me followed by a sizeable one but all speculation. Let’s see 141 take us to 5k and disclose the divi. 802 and A7 plus a couple more shallows, the upside will kick in and shareholders , especially the WCP will pick up chunks of cash.

We’ll find out whether the geopolitical situation is a barrier to investment but if it is, thus becomes range bound but could be paying 20%+ Divis !! Something has to give.

Also Urals price average was $75 in H2 21 v $91 in H1 22 after sanctions. Will prices now move to near Brent price as per company guidance ? Can they add another $10 to domestic ? Huge financial transformation in motion and CAB will reflect that come year end.

As always, tick, tock.

What is ‘extremely undervalued ‘ ? 0.1p gives annual return of 10% at current prices, could they push it higher. Current revenues are very healthy at 4K bopd and cash inflow from export is 60days from invoice. Declaration after a positive 141 result this month ? and to be paid in Q4 ? They also stated that they had to collate names and addresses for all shareholders where stock held in their names and not online through nominee accounts.

What does meaningful mean ? I’ll stick with 0.1-0.15p but they’ll definitely have the cash inflow to increase that and a barge windfall would add to the pot.

Shares are undervalued and hopefully we see some new investor interest as a result .

Un,
I did add the capital letters but at a price of 4.3p and probably 5p pre slides put together, maybe it could be as high as .15 or 0.2p that would be a high yield at this stage. Don’t think we wait long for the declaration.

The summary slide was interesting re Divi payment -;

SUMMARY
INVESTMENT CASE
- Growing production from shallow structures
- On a dividend yield basis, the shares would be EXTREMELY UNDERVALUED
- Huge potential from deep structures
- Caspian Explorer = hidden value
- Successful M&A activity could provide one or
more windfalls