Member Info for KumKuat

Good to meet you TBB.

Wasn’t long ago with the 2017/2018 IPs that they were talking about all the busses, 24 wells on MJF. Initial expectations of achieving 24 wells producing 8k bopd. This was dumbed down to 5 k and we were assuming 200-350 a well, we’re now going to have 7 or 8 wells producing 5k. Easier to manage and I’m sure they could put in infrastructure when the time is right. They’ve moved from 1250bopd pre 154/153 successes and got to 4K in 10 months and son to 5k, maybe a little more with 152. I think peeps are not seeing straight, 5K+ in a year, I think sone are losing perspective here.

SY will add volume, reserves ? depends on horizontal into new structure.

Next 6 months will be the best time financially in 15 years and even better if the charter barge. I’ll take the Divis and see how they go on 802 and A7. If they build cash they can add other assets.

We all have a different view but I’m looking forward to next 6 months and if sp doesn’t re-rate and 802, A7 are duffers and no barge charter, I’ll reappraise at year end.

I believe we’d all like to see another 10 wells on MJF but my view is at they’re at a crossroads for 2 reasons, firstly storage and distribution with additional infrastructure cost and how many horizontals can they drill (I don’t know) without starting to damage or deplete asset.

SY, drilling first horizontal, they won’t stop there if successful.

If they get to 5k with 141 and 152 will add more , that’s it for MJF as of today but the revenue that generates based on achieving Brent and maybe reducing selling costs plus increasing Domestic, it’s huge. Their highest turnover to date $14m before last year at $25, going forward it will x5 or more.

They stated they have the cash for divi so I believe declaration is imminent after hearing Clive’s comments. Will the divi bring in new players and a re-rate ?, I hope so l, not long to find out.

Shallows can take us to 10p with Divis, everything else in for free.

Somm,

Didn’t ask the acid question. If 802 came in they’d manage volume but would have to spend on tying in to local pipelines, $10m.

Net back example in IP that should be up on website, good slide explaining taxation.

Yep, opp to add $10 to domestic and to reduce costs by $10 if they do the oil trading. Likelihood that they’ll get near Brent prices shortly.if they do and could cut selling expenses and increase domestic then it looks very pretty.

SY first horizontal and if successful they’ll obviously drill more.

Divi cash available and it’ll be more the gesture than go to the Bahamas but let’s see if barge charter is likely as that gives them the dough to pay a biggie.

To add

If they do achieve prices nearer to crude for export biz whilst saving $10 on paying oil traders, that would generate considerable extra income.

Also on domestic, if they do decide to sell to them, Clive stated another $10 added to current $25.

H2 is going to be very profitable and gives them options.

Clive also cited the i3e share price increases following their divi plans so let’s see what happens here. First one will be small but increasing dependant on cash flow and as stated probably soon ie July but that’s my take.

They also stated that they were looking at opportunistic M&A opps but focusing on producing assets. There’s a slide on the wind project but if that involved an Oraziman asset, I’d run a mile but that’s not happening anytime soon.

Finally, Aibek was online, I thought he was scruffy and dressed in a t shirt and Seewook had his microphone on but luckily nobody could understand Korean !!

Worthwhile attending and I’ve probably missed a few things but I believe that we receive healthy returns from here and the multi-bagging upside depends on deep outcome.

Firstly, good to meet other investors at the AGM. I have briefly summarised my take on proceedings and as stated, I’m sure others will give their views.

Shallows
Only 1 well in H2 in addition to 141, result due soon.
Aiming to keep production at 5k bopd - reason, storage and would need to spend on piplelines
Also managing the field and extending life

SY
Drilling now, only 1 well in H2

Oil prices
Export 50-70% - sold to oil traders, paid in $ 60 day terms
Domestic 30-50% of current production - $25 currently, sold to local traders , paid in Tenge on delivery, lower taxes

Net backs post tax based on $120 Crude - 42 net, pre sanctions $70
Domestic - not affected by sanctions , $25 gross/$17.2 net of costs/tax
Buying more storage and water/sulphur

Increasing oil prices
Losing $30m pa from Urals
Expecting this to stop soon as a result of KEBCO/ market arbitrage
Received approaches from larger players looking to take oil at prices nearer to Crude
Mini refineries will pay $10 more for domestic
Oil traders based in Singapore and Caspian may start doing own trading saving $10 per barrel

Costs/Taxation structure
Detailed on IP slides

Caspian Explorer
They talked a lot about the barge and I sense that they will get a deal. They are in discussions in the current tender but came close to a deal with another company earlier. I believe that they could get a deal and get paid this year and enable them to pay a ‘special div’ . Barge charter could deliver $20-$25m and 50% profits after costs.

Clive stated that the barge would be more valuable for a sale perspective if chartered first so I suspect that’s the first deal. Value of asset on sale, less than $100m.

Dividends
They wouldn’t be drawn on timings but I sensed it will be sooner rather than later, maybe as early as July. They wouldn’t confirm magnitude of divi but I believe the starter will be small, 0.1p maybe but that’s speculation on my part.

Deeps
802/A7 this year
A5 to follow with another sidetrack
A8 non commercial

The most encouraging aspects for me was the likelihood that they’re going to start receiving higher oil prices. To opportunities there, to get nearer to crude so gross prices increasing and to cut costs by doing their own trading adding another $10 to the pot. Also to increase domestic receipts by selling to mini refineries.

They are going to pay divis and have the cash lined up already so I suspect first one is going to be imminent and maybe a special if barge chartered.I’m not expecting a trip to the Bahamas but it’s a start.

I’d summarise by saying that worst case this becomes a shallow play generating considerable revenue especially if oil remains high and costs can be cut. The barge will enable them to increase divis and I do believe that’s likely. As we all know, the deeps are our company makers and Schlumberger advising that 802 is the best chance so not long to see if they can deliver the first success.

Contd

Lots to update on. IP should be up on the website today. I took piccies of all the slides and sone notes but not home yet, lovely British Rail. Will post my summary later, I’m sure other attendees will give their input too.

Enjoying a couple of pints at the Refinery with some investors. George, UK red is here and he’s buying the beers ! from Yorksheer, that’s a first !!

A positive session and will summarise later dependant on the No of beers consumed ;)

I’m running late , good ole train network !

Yep

CC, i can't disagree with any of that.

We're soon going to find out whether this is a drain the cash exercise where large investors get paid handsomely. If they could generate a 1p annual divi, the WCP divi up 15m between then, not small beer and we'll soon find out whether the sp appreciates. Does there have to be an exit or do they extract the cash at £15 mpa or more, not a bad life in tax free Dubai !!

True market 4.5-4.6. Can sell 800 @ 4.5p and buy very little. MMs after your stock so sit tight and let's see if 141 makes an appearance, hopefully we'll see a bit of buying from the AGM room and not selling...lol

I'm following KO and sharing some divis and hopefully some capital appreciation to go with it.

CC, get a couple of pints down your neck beforehand, that made me chuckle.

If this mob want new investors as they've documented, they have to be credible and trustworthy otherwise no small Fund will touch them.

Turnover last 3 years, 12/14/25m and 2022 likely to be $70m+, 2023 will be $100m+. Where are oil prices going ? they're going to be averaging a far higher price than the last 5 years and Casper will take advantage, the Barge will hopefuly add to the pot and the deeps are the company makers so who knows. Upside from the shallows and we have a shot at multi-bags if they can solve the deep conundrum.

I was attending with 2 long termers who have large holdings but both have COVID !! See you there tomorrow, let's hope it's productive :)

SP going to ping. Can sell 550 @ 4.5p, can't buy a bean.

Good note JS. Are you going to the AGM ?

CC,

Re Dec for first Divi payment, you know that wasn't the communication from Clive, see below. I can't find the one that states the first one would be meaningful and the second declaration in Dec to be the main one. Yet agai it's poor communication misleading investors. 141 being drilled or close to completion ? 152 completion ? can't see anything on that either. 6 months to drill 802, then 4 months ? it goes on and this has to change.

Somm,

They won't be paying divis til Q4 earliest. They just need to continue to build the CAB and Sept Interims will give clarity on why CAB was only $1m after H1. Maybe we get some transparency tomorrow.

One thing i do know, the sp is too low based on shallows alone and at some juncture, this breaks out. A 141 result tomorrow am would be nice to see but not holding my breath.

Dividends

On 5 April 2022, we posted a circular to shareholders to convene a meeting to consider resolutions required to be passed to allow dividends to start. If the resolutions are carried at the general meeting scheduled for 22 April 2022, and subsequently confirmed by the High Court, we would look to declare the Company's first dividend in July 2022, as part of an ongoing quarterly dividend programme.

Dividends

On 27 May 2022 the High Court of England and Wales approved the draft order to effect the Company's cancellation of its share premium account and its deferred shares. A final hearing is expected to be held before the end of June 2022, where the Company expects the High Court will confirm the cancellation can proceed, clearing the way for Caspian Sunrise to make dividend distributions to shareholders.
It is the Company's intention that such dividend distributions commence on a quarterly basis starting in July 2022.

Over 2m late reported from Monday and I suspect there’s more. Very large trade sizes too ! MMS definitely playing games .

Casper just neeed to continue to deliver operational success and build the cash quickly. to pay the Divis. First one needs to be meaningful if they want to attract new investors. Meanwhile, the PIs will continue the journey, sone trading , sone holding but at some point the sp will breakout if success continues and maybe the barge helps with that plight.

Patience is a virtue !

In, 6 or 7k, I hope that’s from a couple of deeps or you’re straight to he top of the leaderboard.

CC,

Thanks for the cars explanation . I understand the $32.5m capitalisation a couple of years ago but this doesn't explain the additions in 2021 ($6.9m excluding the $2m for off roaders/lorries)

Somm, You must've joined the Twatter gang, you're in ramptastic mode, should be second place to CC ! I may as well join you ;)

The current facts -;
Production 4000bopd
Gross Crude Price average $115
Urals spot price $90 average
Export/Domestic ratio 65:35
Export Gross $85
Domestic $25+ (now)

Turnover for H2 will be $45m+ but likely to be $55m+ if 141 adds 1k and that's without adding in anything else from SY or other MJF drilling. They've been paying down the arrears, debts that have built up since covid and costs in selling expenses have gone up as with most industries.

They can't pay a meaningful divi til Sept/Oct earliest but i wasn't expecting one til October anyway and they'll have the opportunity to build significant cash from July-Oct especially if 141 comes up trumps. Hopefully KEBCO plays a part in higher revenues too.

The barge also a factor and much that it's in 'white elephant' mode currently, the last paragraph from the Chairman's statement suggests charter over sale but nice to have either !

'Even at current prices and despite the Urals Oil discount the company is doing well, however, as noted above, we do not expect the current discount for Urals Oil to apply to our oil for much longer. A drilling charter for the Caspian Explorer in 2023 would also make a material difference to the Group's trading. However, the greatest impact on the value of our Company would be success at our BNG deep structures.'

All i know is that this will be a $100m+ revenue company going forward and their cost base will reduce after A7 and 802 completion. What's not to like and nice to see a little bottom feeding at close of play, hopefully this continues to AGM and beyond and a nice little positive 141 update on Thursday am would be most welcome.

I'm going on Thursday and will probably be there early. Somebody said there's a Pret across the road, i'' be in there wearing a carnation :)

Raving buy.