Member Info for KumKuat

https://kz.kursiv.media/en/2022-07-14/president-tokayev-wants-the-government-to-facilitate-western-companies-if-they-are-eager-to-move-from-russia-to-kazakhstan/

Interesting article showing Tokayev's appetite to relocate the Western companies displaced as a result of sanctions. Continues to demonstrate Tokayev's multi vector approach with regards to foreign trade.

Yep, Brent back up 10% from last week dip but as stated, i see it getting very silly indeed as supply tightens.

141 and divi news are imminent. Hopefully 141 takes production to 5000bopd or maybe over it and 152/SY will take it higher than the management forecast. Will good news on production push the sp north or will it be the divi payment that brings in new investors ? suppose that depends on the size of the payment. Biggest negative is from our neighbour up north who has the CPC pipeline control and how he intends to use it. In the interim, Kaz know the threat and have to create other routes and minimize the dependency on Russia as many countries are doing. That's the biggest drag on the sp but with Crude back at $104 and hopefully higher prices achieved for KEBCO, our Casper should be filling the coffers and able to pay healthy divis.

Fundamentals strengthening by the day, additional prod volume will continue that trend but will the market acknowledge it or is the geopolitical risk going to dampen prospects until there's a definite conclusion.

ODS,

MJF and SY have prod licence to 2043 so 21 years to go. P2 estimates of 26.3 mboe so if they were producing @ 10kbopd then likely depletion would be pre 2030. If they produce at 5kbopd from MJF then they're probably extending the life of the field. South Yelemes, no reserves booked so will be good to understand if new structure is commercial and whether reserves can be added.

As far as revenues go, that obviously depends on production and oil prices, the first is predictable at 5-6k but oil price ? we're going to see whether sanction discount is going to be eroded or not. I can't see Chevron and other big boys wanting to sell their oil at 30% discount but hey, we'll know more as we move into H2. I can't see oil below $100 for long, it's actually back over @ $101 as i type and i really do believe it will get silly as demand outsrips supply and we could get obscene prices. Supply is going one way and as long as there's demand, we're going to have silly oil prices for the forseeable imo. Re the 60/40 split, that can move to 70:30 as per production contract terms.

The shallows can give 2 or 3 bags from here max and the silly numbers have always been from the deeps, every other asset will generate cash as opposed to add any sp value. If deeps are unsuccessful, this becomes a shallow play and they'll probably add more assets to do the same. In the interim they'll be generating cash which will be paid in Divis unless Daisy is right re SBBs but i believe that's very unlikely.

Caspian will probably be producing 3 x more oil in H2 at higher prices than they've achieved in their history. They should generate considerable cash and the quantum will depend on prod/oil prices and that enables them to distribute the cash v divis and continue the remedial activity on the deeps, maybe involving another partner and sharing the upside ?

Still bags to be had together with some regular high yielding divis hopefully.

Mike, I can’t add much more than what was said at AGM. There’s got to be more to it than storage & transportation. Maybe it’s the field management piece ? how many horizontals can they drill ? They were originally planning 24 verticals, initial expectations fell from 500bopd average to 200 so even if they’d drilled the lot it would probably less than the 5 or 6 horizontals at 1k. Easier to manage and probably avoiding depletion. 5or6k & SY, that was a pipe dream 10 months ago and I’ll take it. We know the shallow reserves no and valuation is probably10-15p, the Putin games are the reason why we’re down here.

If they get KEBCO prices for oil then they’re in clover and as stated, I believe oil rockets in H2 .

DM,

Brent isn’t staying down here for long. Supply is damaged and there’s now a lack of investment in exploration and infrastructure. Opec won’t increase production and supply won’t increase but demand will. Current recessionary pressure and China shutdowns have affected demand but things will improve and he presto, inventory draw v build and crude will get very silly.

Casper are losing out currently unless KEBCO is starting to kick in. If they’re discounted $30 then they’re only achieving c $70 net but that will be the cheapest oil on the market and the likes of Chevron won’t live with that.

Our Warren B is betting big on oil, one of his biggies is Chevron but he may catch a cold if Putin plays his CPC card. Crude is going north and in the future, it’ll see the highest prices ever achieved as supply wanes, aimho :)

That’s not including DM, Somm and many others who have large holdings.

JS,

That’s an interesting one. There’s only c 20% max in FF when you add Al Marris to WCP holding and throw in a few big Kaz and Korean individuals not in the WCP. I do believe that there could be only 421 shareholders in total !! Say Interactive as one 20% or less between a few brokers ie II being the biggest, HL, Barclays, HSBC etc. 660m shares between 400 odd punters, yep that makes sense to me. I can put a sticker on 30m between 5 holders so that reduces the average on the rest. 421 will be the actual No of those who own shares, not the spread betters who obviously aren’t recorded as shareholders.

https://globalcomment.com/energy-rich-kazakhstan-is-showing-its-teeth-to-russia/

Here, here Jimmy but that's not going to happen unfortunately. DaisyDo thinks SBBs over divis but i believe they'll start to extract the cash without damaging the operational effort. They obviously can't produce more than 5/6k from MJF, is that storage, transportation and field capability with the new horizontal techniques. Also add in SY opp and the 2 deeps to be completed in H2, it's not a bad operational schedule.

H2 will definitely be a defining period for investors here. We'll see the outcome of shallows, the 2 deeps, possibly a barge charter and the magnitude of any divi payment. Punters are concerned about our Putin interference and hence the sp retrace. You pays your money, you takes your chance .

Beynon,
2022 production will be in excess of 1m at current levels providing no stoppages for any reason . Oil price achieved ? we’ll they’re losing $30 or barrel until KEBCO/arbitrage makes the difference and that’s $30m lost revenue. Double the production but very likely to be more if a few more shallows land and they have the upside opp from achieving oil prices nearer to Brent yet sp on its arze. Build the cash is MO, that and a little windfall from the rusty tub, it’ll give them options going forward.

1.25m sells and 480k buys and we're up but a very strong bid of over 1m reduced to 300l @ close as one or a couple of the 421 shareholders dumped 750k.

Casper is financially in great shape and improving, the only issue is the lunatic north of the border. How the world sorts him out ??

I didn't want to make it too complicated Un ;).

Somm, you obviously don't run a business ! 60 day invoice terms from delivery, so after they'd waited the first 60 days there's no cash flow gap, what you no understand ?

Yep only 421 shareholders allegedly. Probably 20 peeps hold c 80%+ and the rest are PIs yet it's the MMs and PIs who control the sp direction. Definitely needs new blood and we'll see if divis get paid and whether that makes a difference.

Contd

Gross oil price - $100 ?
Discount without sanctions @ 5% - $5
Processing.Transport - $7.6
Tax @ 30% - $30
Net price per barrel - $57.4 for export / $17.2 domestic

715k export @$57.4 = $41m
385k @ $17.2 = $6.6m
Net - $47.6m

That is perfectly feasible for 22 without factoring in more shallow production, the variable being gross oil price achieved. This will go up as shallow production builds and you can pay a chunk of divis from this and maybe we get lucky with CE or 3AB.

As we all know, 2022 will be a far stronger year than 21 and if you were to do a budget forecast using current numbers, it would be a complete transformation you.

21 - 534k bopa
22 - 1.1m bopa + (using 4kbopd for H2)

Gross Oil

https://wp-caspiansunrise-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/07/CS-INVESTOR-PRESENTION-29-June-2022.pdf

IP presentation should be up on the website this afternoon or tomorrow.

Re deeps, they will continue with them and the next steps will depend on the outcome of 802/A7. Unlikely i know but if either of them flow commercially, it would change the strategy. They would do the remedial worj but would drill more appraisals to prove up reserves. History demonstrates that we are unlikely to achieve success but allegedly Schlumberger believe that this is their best shot.

Shallow development will continue and hopefully MJF adds reserves. If the deeps were successful then cash would be redeployed there obviously but the shallow program would continue to be the cash cow until they're able to sell. They won't get involved in an FDP on the deeps, that's for the next owner.

Mr K is a shareholder and there will be others and Koreans holding stakes outside the WCP.

DD,
I don't see the share buy backs. I see the divi(s) being paid as the big boys want a few pennies in the bank. If the deeps don't come off, the real company making upside has gone so it becomes a cash extraction exercise. Why buy shares when they could dilute with 3AB, a wind farm maybe owned by another of KO's relatives..lol

I see them draining the cash, especially with the geopolitical climate as it is. Manage the asset base they have and don't do anything silly re damaging MJF and probably will buy more producing assets to facilitate further cash extraction. If they got lucky with 802 or any of the A block wells, this gets sold immediately and that's their real payday, in the interim, they manage operational expense and go the divi route and assets like CE/3AB will help that strategy.

I'm expecting divi declaration this month, payment ? don't know but i suspect it'll be this quarter. Not long to find out.

I hope you’re right DD. Mr K and other Kazakhs/Koreans outside the WCP will reduce re FF or you could argue that everything outside the WCP is FF as per Casper website.

How do you see things panning out over next few months and eventual end game ?

DD,
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/w1y3n3w

See above which details the WCP shareholders totalling 64.92%. The Al Marris own 9.85% between them which leaves 25.23%. There are other larger Korean, Kazakh shareholders in the game and i believe the FF is well below this number.