Member Info for KumKuat

I sense we're nearing or at the bottom. Ask has tightened and the bid has strengthened, back to over 7 figures and MM's obviously want some stock. Going to ping soon and as i stated, i'm expecting the P&D routine shortly as this is very predictable,

In the interim, nowt has changed operationally from June and Crude has receded c 15%. 802 2.5 months in and we await the elusive 141 result and divi declaration.

Tick, tock.

I can't believe the sp is down here and although volume is small, peeps are still selling. The way it's going, the sp will be 50% discounted from the recent high of 5.4p when we were expecting first divi declaration and 141 news. 50% decline when market was expecting a breakout, that is extreme ! It's a funny ole game and i'm expecting to see the real rampathon at some point from the P&D contingent knowing that we're nearing news.

Meanwhile crude bouncing about in the $90s. Latest inventory reports suggest that Opec could be slowing the taps as opposed to increasing them.

Yawnnnnnnnnn.

3.02/3.025 are buys. Blue day today anyone :)

……lol. Good ole Clive, at least there’s no BS in that response. It’s as if they don’t want the sp up.

I thought the China mention re meddling is very reassuring. China see Kaz as an important trade partner and Tokayev seems to be okaying a good game with his ‘widen the net’ strategy.

Sp bottom could be in.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/China-And-The-West-Both-Want-To-Keep-Kazakh-Oil-Flowing.html

Interesting to see China stance and will help Kaz diffuse Putin threats.

The fact that Wagner are out in the light openly recruiting speaks volumes. The longer the war continues the more depleted Putin’s ground force effort becomes, sadly a huge loss of life both sides.

Are Casper achieving gross crude prices ? Should be an RNS if they were but I suspect sone of our sellers could be pressing the buy button tomorrow early doors.

TW, thanks for posting.

Tokayev knows that staying tied to Russia = risk to independence. Can they defend against a Russian invasion, nope but that is very unlikely to happen as Putin’s ground forces are depleting and to attack another FSU state, that would bring NATO in. He can pressure Kaz with the ‘enerygy/pipeline’ threats but that’s why Kaz are making plans to counter.

Going to take years to build pipelines, new tankers etc, they know that but now plans are underway. Rail, road will cost far more but the good news, they know a future tethered to Russia is not their objective.

Putin could try and force out Tokayev, put a puppet in with pro Russian interests . Could Stoke up unrest amongst the pro Russian factions in Kaz but its largely a Muslim state. Putin has lit the touch paper and currently he has too much on his plate to counter Kaz plans apart from the pipeline transportation card which pushes Kaz further away from his sphere of influence.

Ambiguity’s link should mean that we are receiving $30m more pa gross and needs clarification from Casper imo. I’ve written to them so let’s see what comes back.

Ambiguity, nice find and states that they’re
Now getting crude less $ since KEBCO rebrand.

Also good to see the Azerbaijan link too, great to see Kaz making plans to limit the risk of Russian sanctions.

Firstly, nice to see a lot of people contributing to the board and many with different views, bullish, bearish or indifferent.

Those who believe it’s going Private, yep you’re entitled to your opinion but I believe that’s absolute tosh for the reasons I’ve already voiced. Yep, I’m annoyed they haven’t followed through with 141/divi and other news but they’ve gone this many times before.

141 news is overdue, have they had issues ? probably or maybe VC’s comms were inaccurate, not the first time. Divis to be declared and paid this year so the longer we wait the likelihood of a larger first divi and maybe that’s their aim.

Crude back at $99 and had a peep back over $100 last night but as always, volatile as affected by so many factors.

Can’t defend their comms but I don’t see much that’s changed on the fundamental front in last few months and hopefully we see the horizontal success continue come next news.

There will be peeps looking very closely at proceedings here as they know it’ll go on a run again but I’m wanting to see that breakout, maybe a better than meaningful Divi makes the difference.

Another thought re production. Maybe their managing proceedings waiting for KEBCO to affect receivables ? who knows but there’s a buying opp for those who want to take the risk but understandably, not for all .

McQ,
Your observations are not far off the mark re Casper but way off re portfolio. 10%...lol, now that would be very sensible and luckily i'm not relying on Casper for retirement and the kids inheritance pot thankfully.

I do hold Shel, BP, CRST, VTY, RR, TXP, PANR and some TSLA currently, mostly for divi plays but the runt of the litter is Casper and my biggest holding from a monetary perspective. I won't share the %s as i'll start to question my judgement !!

Share price is dropping but if you look at the volumes re the FF %, it's tiny. Personally i believe that we're seeing leverage being squeezed out, maybe some hot money leaving , in on the recent run to 5.4p ish with the expectations of more to come, Zak Mir TA analysis, close to breakout etc plus some disillusioned longer term holders or those TA boys looking at the chart and looking at the trade opp plus those averaging down maybe. Many Pis also being squeezed as a result of the current inflationary pressures so i suspect many are being forced to sell, who really knows.

On the point of value, i can name several stocks that have PE valuations way in excess of true value, look at TSLA and PANR. What have PANR found to date, what are they producing commercially, what are the revenue nos...lol Currently all speculation until they prove it up and loads of bloooo sky. Casper on the other hand is damaged by poor coms resulting in poor sentiment but real fundamental value is way higher. We ccan all see how quickly this can change and if they'd have followed up with a 141 success and divi declaration, the reality is that the sp would probably have headed towards double figures. The market is fickle and a couple of bits of news if released post AGM as expected could've accounted for 5p price swing from current level equating to a m/cap of an additional £112m.

Sentiment is dictating the price but i maintain that the value is way beyond sp but that's my opinion and it looks like i' could be at the trough again at this rate.

Hi Mike,

Yep, a little unrest but as you know, that presents opportunity. The clever investor/trader could be making a killing here and that's where i do agree with CC, if you're clever enough/sharp enough to average down then you can obviously build your pot on the cheap. I suspect many offloaded volume in the 5p range and have the opportunity to add another 40% to their shareholding. An easy game with hindsight but not many get it right.

I'm sure KO would like a few quid to replace his annual loan interest @ c $40ok pa so i'm expecting divi declaration pre Interims and payment ? maybe Q4.

The wait goes on but if it does drop into the 2ps then that's a real trading opportunity that can't be ignored. Will it get there ? down to Casper and the Pis as always.

https://wp-caspiansunrise-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/05/2022-02-22-Caspian-Sunrise-Positive-Trajectory-Reinstating-Fair-Value-Estimate.pdf

I know most have seen this but it's our only broker valuation.

Meanwhile Crude continues to jump around in the $90-100 region, currently $98 and hopefully Casper have some positive operational news to impart in the not too distant.

McQueen,
Re taking Private ? not out of the question but as you point out, this could've ben done a long time ago. They could have diluted us to death whenever they wanted but to be fair to KO, he hasn't done that i a believe the barge transaction demonstrates that clearly.

Valuation of Caspian today ? I can't argue with the current sticker price as that's what the current valuation is but as i've stated many times, it's a huge disconnect from current fundamental value which i believe should be 8-10p at this time. Whether you pay any interest to broker valuations or not, WHI value shallows @ 7.9p and @ 21p as fair valuation and £1.02 in full success situation.

I am only one shareholder holding over 10m shares at this juncture and i obviously believe and want the sp to increase. The sp is dictated by the PIs not the larger shareholders and by that i mean the WCP, they are siting tight. I am following KO as he has increased his stake over the years and his latest decision to go with the debt for equity swap was a big tick in the box for me.

I have been here since the beginning and have seen all the comings and goings and peeps have and can say i'm suffering from 'Stockholm Syndrome' ...lol and it's become a bot of an obsession but i'm probably in the same bucket as KO/WCP, in the FOMO camp waiting for D Day. Not giving investment advice, i post it how i see it and as far as sincerity goes, i think still being hee with a chunk at 15 years means that i still see the opportunity and my agenda is a very simple one, to have a nice little payday for the kids/future grand kids.

Finally, on divis, i figure 0.15p a quarter gives me almost £65k pa of tax free cash and not a bad return. The biggest risk is the geopolitical situation, not to be taken lightly but i personally am not overly concerned.

One day Rodders.

https://astanatimes.com/2022/08/saudi-arabia-investor-acwa-power-considers-building-wind-farm-in-kazakhstan/

It was only 2 years ago when the company was producing 1300 bopd, Covid pandemic , oil price crash sub $20 and Domestic to $6 and Caspian was at risk of huge dilution to stay afloat. KO had already placed £1m shares to clear oil trader debts etc and signalled his intention not to fund the operation going forward. Why would he dilute his shareholding back then if he was awash with cash, a question i have asked but no sensible response.

Compare 2020 to now ! Oil production at 4000 bopd (capacity) and Crude been averaging (gross) above $100 in 2022, Domestic @ $25. The company have cleared down all debts , the KO clan have done their housekeeping to max out their shareholding and to set up divi structure and there's NO way that they're looking to exit when the sp is 3p !!! They're profitable and generating cash for the first time in their history. They probably have at least 15-20 years of capacity prod from MJF/SY so why the hell would they take it Private ??

As stated many times, they are continuing with the deeps, that is their big payday but until then, they have a cash cow with MJF/SY that can fund the operational effort and deliver income through the divi structure. Barge charter ? yep, nothing to date but i still believe that they could get lucky and that will add to the operational/divi pot. The deeps ? 802/A7 and A5 side-track completion by H1 2023 ? probably and they will know by then if they can get any return from 8 years of drilling. If not, they'll have the option to get a partner in as it will be the only option imo as opposed to selling it.

In the interim, they will look at other asset acquisitions, possible existing shallows that need shallow driling, i think that's likely. Wind project, don't rule it out and you can see from the link below, companies are looking to invest. I just hope there's no more sweetheart deals, that would be the end for me.

SP is disconnected from true value and PIs have sold/are selling as a result of geopolitical issues, the CPC pipeline interference and probably the lack of follow through from AGM. I have added more stock as i didn't believe that it could ever get back to this level and this is definitely the time to be greedy when negativity is abound. It's not a game and some serious money to be made if you have appetite for risk.

This is in the best position it's ever been in from a fundamental perspective. We all know what the shallows are worth and maybe SY adds to that but that price is 200% above current level and the bit we've lost is the £1 valuation/upside from the deeps following A8 disappointment. No hope value in at all yet Caspian are still spending money to pursue the deep opportunity as they know it's their big payday. In the interim, they continue to build cash and hopefully KEBCO branding will increase those revenues.

Each to their own.

JD,

Limerick and his wife are the only two who have actually purchased stock unless you count KO’s debt swap.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CASP/result-of-agm-kqgcxdv7hoymvyk.html

Was passed at the AGM inc restoration of his renumeration package.

That’s all I was expecting. PIs are treated like mushrooms and as stated we wait for the next feed !! Very poor show following AGM lead up and expectation setting but hey, we’ve suffered it for many years. Nothing changed fundamentally, just poor comms continuing

Mr C, I go along with a lot of that, same as most public funded bodies. Shoite leadership , Unions and not a clue how to run a business efficiently.