Member Info for KumKuat

https://astanatimes.com/2022/09/almaty-region-commissions-new-wind-power-plant-in-partnership-with-china/

I'm sure some business was done today !!

Wind farms.....hmmmmm. You know that's coming to Casper especially if the deeps are shelved next year. BNG Wind Farm and they'll have the money to invest, probably not a bad call but probably owned by the members of the KO clan...lol

Paul,
They’ve not taken it down, the headline spread is wrong, the true spread 2.95-3.04 and nothing changed for a week, bid and ask roughly the same.

Belles, Interims have to have to include current position on operations.

Tokayev seems to be doing a very good job of navigating the Kazakh ship through choppy seas. Seems to be a very active President and managing to walk the political and economic tightrope. Article below shows the opps that sanctions have presented. Companies that have or are relocating from Russia and not from the energy sector.

China looking to strengthen their relationship with Xi visiting tomorrow. China are their biggest partner and Xi will be looking to secure trade deals, especially on the energy front which will probably protect Kaz from future Russian threats. Tokayev is driving trade with as many partners as possible and seemes to be doing a great job with GDP numbers increasing unlike many countries. Disruptions in the energy sector from CPC downtime or maintenance on larger fields obviously will damage numbers but Tokayev is driving trade in the other verticals to fill any void.

They will continue close ties with Russia, keep your friends close, keep your possible enemies closer still probably applies. Continuing bilateral relationships whilst increasing relationships/partnerships globally to limit dependency on one. A good example was Russia launching an Iranian satellite from Kazak soil last month, shows the political tightrope that Tokayev is having to balance successfully.

https://astanatimes.com/2022/09/kazakhstan-to-welcome-44-foreign-companies-relocating-from-russia/

Crude deciding it's next move as retesting $95. Current chart looks like lower highs and lower lows and i don't see $100 being broken unless something dramatic happens with supply but nobody seems to know.

Back to operations. Link below showed 801 well was drilling at an average of 35m per day but that included drilling through the harsh winter months. Sinopec drilled it without incident so if Interims are last week of Sept, we should be at c 4200m and into the likely pay zone by mid October and coring activities will commence.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/wkm8yvr

We have the financial update with the Interims publication, operational updates on 2 shallows, barge and 802 plus divis to update on. The buzz pre AGM has fizzled out as a result of the 5k production ceiling on MJF and a less active operational campaign for H2. Also the comms blackout from the company whereas investors were expecting more CAB, more activity and Divi payment, also the 141 news which was due 2 months ago or more ?

Loads to be positive about but you always have to be on your guard as a result of inconsistent comms, hopefully everything going swimmingly and they're back to mushroom mode and quarterly comms.

Soon find out whether Shin continues to milk MJF, has found a new structure at SY and is going to bring home the first deep that will transform the company. 2 bags from the shallows, many bags from the deeps and in good financial health to continue the journey. Unloved and undervalued but only one way to change that.

Steady on McQ. Ramper ….lol. A pragmatic bullish investor with a small dose of cynicism when required, sadly our Casper needs it unfortunately !

I hate the fact that they are crap with comms but as we all know, they’re not doing it for us.

Interims will be positive but I don’t think the cash build will be high otherwise we’d have seen Divi update already. Let’s hope that it’s more good news operationally and going forward, they do as they say they’re going to do. Not long to find out :)

Unfortunately Dictators have a habit of staying in power and Putin has built his power base around him. He's had more than 20 years at it and the majority of the elites see him as a winner. Those who disobey are dealt with and the opportunities move to the next in line or distributed amongst the key members in his club. He's not going anywhere unless Special Ops sort him out as very unlikely to be an inside job. He won't lose the war and as demonstrated in many protracted stalemate wars, the leaders aren't ousted as a result of the conflict.

Crude back @ $95 but supply/demand influencers are many. Was reading an article on the possible China slowdown as one of the reasons for demand slowdown. Not only Covid, Real Estate Crisis, drought etc. Their zero Covid strategy ie the brutal lockdown approach will obviously affect demand as people are stuck indoors, not working, not earning an income. The Real Estate crisis is also a huge threat if they start seeing the huge insolvencies predicted. Housing market down more than 30% this year and negative equity position for many. Developers who were funded are now going out of business as government tightens lending criteria, also the same for access to mortgages for buyers. Developments not being completed, ghost towns being created and a huge crash will damage their economy. They've got to make the call on loosening credit and risking a repeat of the 2008 financial crash.

Water shortages will affect energy, especially in Western China, no water for Hydro, having to turn to other more expensive resources ie coal. Manufacturing slowing, factories closing, unemployment etc all affecting demand. China such a huge player globally and when they sneeze, we all catch a cold. Need to limit the dependency on China as it is doing with Russian exports. Funny ole game this world economy malarkey and countries are trying to become far more more independent in a world where globalisation has meant that we are all intertwined.

The article posted earlier regarding the increased traffic through the Trans Caspian route is the start of Kazakhstan's move away from Russian dependency and hopefully this continues and quickly.

You can tell i'm really bored ! C'mon Clivey boy, surprise us with some positive comms pre the Interims :)

Another 133k buys after the 284k sell to appear on the trades list so even Stephen for the day thus far yet market is 2.95-2.99p. Almost as if we're sitting here until Interims released and maybe we get a Divi declaration too with first payment scheduled for Dec ? 0.15p would give a 20% yield !! and even 0.1p would give 13.3%. CAB was $1m in June so 6 months of healthy cash build should enable them to deliver 0.1p as a minimum and i suspect many will re-invest the cash.

....lol. Maybe they should've got Sinopec signed up for 802 and A7 and booked in Xi for a flyby.

On a serious note, will strengthen bilateral trade relationship and Tokayev continuing to play his game. It'll stop Putin from shutting down pipelines and creating disruption.

https://astanatimes.com/2022/09/chinese-president-xi-jinpings-first-international-visit-since-start-of-covid-19-pandemic-to-take-place-on-september-14-kazakhstan-confirms/

https://astanatimes.com/2022/09/trans-caspian-international-transport-route-sees-triple-increase-in-shipment-volume-in-2022/

There's obviously dissent at senior levels, just a matter of time if the war goes the wrong way. The replacement ? who knows but if deposed, let's hope it's somebody who wants to build relationships as opposed to launching missiles. The threats will escalate and Russia will be looking to counter in the north. Russians won't want to lose Kherson and unless the West really ramp up support, that will be a long drawn out campaign over the Winter. The longer it goes on suits the western regimes as Russian forces weaken and discontent may build in Moscow ?

I'm expecting to see some chunky sells disclosed as the buying over last week exceeded the selling by a couple of million so the stock is coming from somewhere but yet to be published ? Bid remains as it was from last Wednesday, can sell 550k @ 2.95 ish and buy 250k.

Oil continues volatility, bounced $7 since last week low of $86 but still demand fears and continued Covid outbreaks in China not helping. Urals continues to trade at c $18 discount.

Interims next week, probably going to have to wait as the ops updates will be in the accounts.

Investeg, yep and i'd have expected to see the start of some healthy buying. The buys have been outstripping sells by some way this week and yet zippo movement. Silly spread and mid price, should be 2.98p-3.02p and 3p mid. News fast approaching and as you say, 141/151/802/Divi and CE. £65m m/cap ? that is a joke.

Was hoping that Casper would get to the start of the reservoir in the Carboniferous at a depth of 4300m and have some news for the Interims. Probably going to be at c 3600m and drilling ahead without incident or maybe they've increased drilling to 40m per day as per the previous 801 well. I fully expect them to find oil , we'll get the coring updates but unlike A5 the first well, we've had 3 disappointments that followed the 'oil filled vuggy cores' so we'll probably have to wait for flow tests before excitement builds.

Got to be in it to win it and they're continuing to spend the dough and chasing the jackpot.

JD,

Casper are just poor with comms and if you’re invested, it’s a like it or dump it. PIs are an irritant and will continue to be so. They say they want to change the investor base or add more investors, that’ll never happen with their current management style unless they hit a couple of deeps and then the investor base will change. Never see them bringing in institutions, they’ll sell it and letter the larger company do the FDP and transform it to a mid sized OE company.

We have upside just on shallows and maybe they do build cash and invest in other projects but in the short term, the first deep success will be the transformative event this company needs.

Geopolitics and inflationary pressures are a drag on the price and we have to hope that the conflict is resolved , not just for our Casper investment, for world peace until the next calamitous event.

Tick, tock.

Trading is odd. The bid has moved up slowly from 2.91p to 2.975p and current limits are 2.975 to 350k and up to 550k @ 2.9495. The action has been predominantly buying apart from a 500k and a 250k, there were a couple of 316k trades on Tuesday at 4.15 i believe and at 3.01p but don't know if the bid had risen above 3p ? apart from that i haven't seen any sizeable sells ? Somebody is obviously feeding the market unless MMs are holding loads which is very unlikely. True spread is 2.975-3.02p, very tight and something has to give soon.

Investeg,

I don't disagree with the shallows focus and to build revenues to exploit other opportunities but that puts a ceiling on the sp of probably 10p as the fundamentals are linked to reserves. Yep, they will be in a far stronger position with loads of cash and to take the business in another direction or buy other producing assets as communicated but i won't be around for that with this leadership team. I'm for maxing out on the shallows but there must be a reason they're putting a 5k ceiling on MJF and it must be to do with the no of horizontals they can drill or simply, maintaining the production levels at 5k bopd. I'm sure depletion plays it's part and workovers will continue through the licence term. If they could get up to 10k bopd, i'm sure they would be doing it, why wouldn't they ? there has to be a reason and i think that's management of the longevity of the cash cow.

802 meant to be the easiest deep and we'll soon find out, success there changes the landscape here and will give existing investors the confidence that they can deliver and also will attract speculation as A5/A7 will follow. They'll finish the deep licence commitments and drill A5 side-track. The outcome will define the next phase of their business journey and the investment opportunity.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Sources-Hungary-Is-Threatening-To-Block-EU-Sanctions-If-Oligarchs-Arent-Spared.html

Time to can Hungary !

Crude through $90 and volatility continues. I can see a range of $70 to $150 anything possible in this crazy world.

Just interested to see investor expectations :)

McQ,

I posted my thoughts and numbers earlier, hopefully a pessimistic view !

…….lol, another belly laugh.

Silly spread @ 2.9-3.30 when true market is 2.95-3.02. Bid price strengthened to 2.959 for smaller volumes and bid volume weakened to 600k. Either a little tick up coming or we've got Mr Iceberg in the background and we're going to see late reported chunky sells.

https://astanatimes.com/category/business/

Kaz have had a positive start to the year economically but H2 will be far more difficult and GDP forecasted to decline for many reasons. Can't believe their base rate is 14.5% and the CPC pipeline maintenance plus oilfield maintenance at Tengiz /Kashagan will reduce revenues considerably. Tokayev continuing to attract inward investment and trade partnerships with as many countries as possible.

Any guestimates from peeps re the likely H1 numbers, T/Over/GP/PBT ?

The existing one isn't far behind !

Yep, Almaty, Astana and a quick visit to see a rig , a few containers and a pipe.

Wolfi, i'd be up to that but probably next year when things have settled down with Russian games. I think you're going to find that it's miles from anywhere and as barren as hell. Probably better to have a couple of days in Almaty (jolly style :)) and then pop over to Casper, 3500kms away !!

https://www.rome2rio.com/s/Mangistau/Almaty

Back to important stuff. 992s Turbo ordered (2 YEAR WAITING...LOL) and on the search for a nice Healy but that'll be next year, still hoping for car prices to collapse.

https://www.imsa.com/news/2022/01/10/this-rare-alloy-gullwing-could-become-the-most-expensive-one-ever-sold/#:~:text=While%20a%20steel%2Dbodied%201955,Gooding%20%26%20Company's%202012%20Scottsdale%20Auction.

Very nice. Are you planning to add it to the collection Wolfi ?