Member Info for KumKuat

CC,

Divi is factored in currently as the market has voted with a 30-40% hike on the sp from initial declaration. Needs production success to get this moving, divis alone ? nope. Divis alongside production, yep another catalyst as peeps will see the fundamental value and maybe factor some blooooo sky in, that would be a novelty :)

…lol, is Donald on the list

https://wp-caspiansunrise-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/05/2022-02-22-Caspian-Sunrise-Positive-Trajectory-Reinstating-Fair-Value-Estimate.pdf

Should see confirmation of second Divi declaration next week. Another x% into the shareholder pot.

Thanks for posting JCB, very apt username when you look at Oriental...lol

http://www.oriental-sunrise.com/News/

It's a very interesting article as Dunga is a shallow field producing c 12,300bopd and Total's 60% stake valued at £275m which would make the whole field worth c £460m. Haven't look at the reserves from Dunga but based on MJF/SY as a comparison, our 2400bopd is 37.5% of Total share and you could draw a comparison as a valuation of £103m as of today or 4.58p per share.

Also interesting that Total are investing into wind energy in Kaz and obviously reducing their exposure to oil production in the smaller assets like Dunga. I can see Casper continuing with the deeps on BNG until they get a result but that will stop if the money pit does not deliver next year. They'll then continue onto Block 8 and drill 2 wells and if successful then great news but if duds, they'll move onto wind energy providing the shallow operation is delivering enough cash to fund the new venture.

I'm still not with the Divi strategy at this juncture. I'd have preferred to see the 5000bopd delivery as communicated as that will enable them to accelerate field operations whilst paying healthy divis. Currently they've slowed down shallow operations at a time where they should be doing the opposite. But more rigs, pipes etc and go for it in 2023 and if successful, the divis will f ollow and payable from a much stronger financial base. Currently they're taking the cash now, i still don't understand why they're not waiting a little longer. Taking the cash now and not confident about future production ? KO needs the money to replace his lost interest on loan ? or some of the WCP membership want their dough as per previous promises made ?

Curren marke is ver strong on the ask as a few peeps have flogged a few or maybe a seller in background ? Can buy 775k @ 4.2p and sell 150k @ 4.13p.

Dick, you are a thief ;)

Mr 250k spoiling the party and without those trades we might've seen a little more of a move. Nice to see some blue midweek, maybe Casper will surprise us with some news.

Morning DD,
Only real material news pre year end is likely to be the barge. Another divi declaration next week or the week after would be good as confirmation of another payment on 16/1, hopefully will continue. Then we have the 802 result followed by testing and hopefully a positive result ie several hundred barrels and no blockages during testing.

DD,
I’m pleasantly surprised it’s help up and moving on low volumes. MMS were fishing for cheap stock yesterday so 2 options, shake it hard or close the spread to encourage trade.

For those trading the stock til next news, next declaration date should be early December but the key date will be the ex divi date on 16/12 if you want to receive payment. Declaration will show their intent and 802 news will follow by Dec month end .

Obviously reading the boatds and normal service resumed and a couple of buys :)

MMs obviously want to stock so they can rip off punters with a silly spread of 0.37 ?? 3.61p to sell up to 1.2m ! and 3.98p buy, max 350k. MMs want to make nearly 10% for transactions, that's crazy and hence zero trade. Need to up the bid or reduce the ask but narrow the spread.

Ambiguity,
You definitely have the right username for this stocks or probably most stocks on the AIM Casino !

Netbacks at $40 ? Depends on 3 factors ie oil price from MRs/Donestic market, oil trading improvement between $5-10 and demand from the market. Company are saying $38 and $33 gross and $37/$28 net so if oil was sold 50:50 then fair to say $32.5 mid and same with the oil trading benefit by taking $7.5. Crude has come off and back to $85 and the sanctions discount still in play as is the tax on gross Brent as opposed to the sanctioned price so export off the table. Also, have Domestic/MR prices weakened ?

The oil prices will fluctuate but whilst they’re getting improved netbacks, it would make sense to crack on with shallows as oppose to deferring to Q1, I really don’t get that ? I’d rather them accelerate shallows at all sites inc new structure at SY and get prod up to the 5k bopd number they set for this year. They’ve obviously hit problems and the 155 new we’ll has taken priority over 141/2 and 5 ?

Always sone ambiguity or obfuscation with Casper comms but now it’s time to deliver to expectations set and deliver on both shallow and deep assets

Or even higher. Previous netbacks c$28, new net backs @ $32 (Dom/MR) and additional $5-10 from trading their own oil. Could be $40 v $28 and by my maths that's 42% :)

And whilst we wait for news, the MMs will try and make a market or rob people blind when trading volume is very thin I know McQ is not interested in daily prices but the MMs and some peeps are. Really well bid, 800k @ 3.655, up from 3.63p this morning as there are no takers so they need to move the price up if they're short of a few Caspers. The ask has weakened to 3.97 for up to 375k max and a loverly spread of 0.32p !!! for those wanting to play. Great business for the MMs but if they want more biz, maybe tightening the spread would help ;). Don't sell any and surprising the sp will move back up :)

Yep and hopefully SY horizontals will will be successful and add reserves.

Hopefully we're going to see continued monthly divis, that in itself is great news but Q1 should be a very busy time for Casper and hopefully no weather interruption to delay proceedings. The sp will rerate on success and pointless pumping it as it'll just recede as peeps sell into any good news or even worse, it tanks if the news is not good. We are range bound currently but there is so much on the go that any success will break us out and then the hype will build as peeps talk about billions of barrels, yada, yada.

2022 Dec
802 result
155 spud
Barge rental charter ?

2023 Q1
A5 side-track - timing dependant on 802 rig release. This has been our most productive well and by that i mean it's actually flowed for several days at 3800bopd but expectations have been set at 1000bopd as per last update. Success at A5 is the catalyst for the dramatic re-rate.

A7 - Restart drilling from 2175m but timing dependant on rig and crew availability. Personally, i'd have expected them to buy another rig and pipes, don't know why they're not as they'll have the cash ?

141/142 - Disappointing results on these wells. 1400bopd on 142 announced in May and additional 141 horizontal in play but both have failed due to water cut issues, blockages. Expected to resume in Q1. Why don't they say, WILL resume in Q1 or are is it another Casper FUBAR scenario and missing pasties and spanners.

As far as i see it, the above is the summary as communicated by Casper and i don't believe i've missed anything. Divis will get paid and hopefully no hiccups there and we have 5 or 6 operational events that will kick this on in style but as stated, the A5 success on Airshagyl is the biggest news of the bunch.

Finally, if Ukraine war ceases then we'll get an additional boost to the sp. In summary, we have a good chance of some serious upside and don't forget Block 8 and future windfarms ;)

Kheldar,
I’m hopeful that 802 becomes our first deep win. Flow rates ? probably in the 100s as you say and more importantly, healthy reserves numbers.

CC,
We know that 802 has flowed as have all deeps to date but they found oil well before the targeted zone of c4300m. I suspect they hadn’t cased as they weren’t expecting to intersect oil higher up and hence the side-track. Personally, I don’t believe that the Bicotender relates to 802, I think it’s the shallow fields. Regardless, they have to complete a sidetrack, then test it for commerciality so flowing open hole means nothing, we know that already, we don’t know it’s commercial until perforation completed and flow tested. Your intonation is that it’s flowing commercially, that’s nonsense and you’re using the Bico info for a little pump. Sidetrack will take time, then perforation then testing.

As stated, the last update was disappointing operationally and pointless positioning it as anything different. Shallow update was poor, only good news was that they’re maintaining 2400bopd. 802 was disappointing too as we were expecting oil in the targeted deeper horizon, sadly not the case but hopefully they get a win from the new higher zone.

Operationally they have had a poor 6 months without progress and hopefully this changes with positive 802 news by year end but still have to have a successful flow test without lost packed lunches ! Q1 will hopefully be a very busy time operationally and that any success with continued monthly Divi payments, will mean that the sp finally gets back to double figures. A5 is the key well to propel the sp to previous levels seen in 2014 and hopefully they convert it in Q1, 5th time lucky :)

The best news apart from Divis was the netbacks pricing and that is material. Add more production volume and this starts to look very good. Add in the end of the Ukraine conflict and 2023 could finally be the year of growth that all Caspers have been waiting for.

Almost forgot the rust bucket. Maybe a surprise before year end ? If so, a very handsome special Divi coming to those holding stock :)

Pumping again CC before your next dump…...lol. Don’t want to rain on the parade but we know 802 has flowed and Nov 4 announcement below states that clearly. Hopefully sidetrack is well underway and to be tested before year end making it our first commercial well.

‘The Company remains encouraged by the strong oil shows from Deep Well 802. Following an extensive cementing exercise we are now preparing to drill a side-track from a depth of 2,416 meters to a depth of 3,900 meters to target the first interval of interest from which the oil encountered to date HAS FLOWED. If successful and based on current timings we expect to test the well before the end of the year.’

Purely an advisory service i offer ;) Some peeps may not know the current bid/ask levels as they don't hold large volumes of stock and can't test beyond their holding level. They may want to know that the market is well bid and the ask is tight, depends if their buying or selling stock and important to understand which way the market is moving.

We're going to have a quiet time on the news front until news or maybe the barge will give us that pleasant surprise. Peeps will trade it in the interim period and some will take the risk of getting caught out by a surprise announcement. Next ex divi date weeks away and i'm expecting sp to retrace before picking up as Divi/ approaches . This won't continue for long as we move into Q1 and the operational activity picks up. The Q4 upside comes fro 802 and a barge deal, both possible but 802 is a month away and the barge could be anytime, let's hope it's tomorrow.

Online market not very liquid this and the bid is weak so looks like a tick down on the cards. Max sell 25k @ 4p, max buy 350k @ 4.21p but 4.139 up to 300k.

230%...lol, a little typo. Nice to see the bounce, i thought it would continue to retrace and bounce hard as next news in Dec nears. Would be good to see this trend continue and the continued divi payments will build sentiment and the hype will arive with some solid operational news. As always, patience required.