Member Info for KumKuat

SP has consolidated at this level and if oil prices have remained as per previous guidance then they're more profitable than they were when exporting. Crude price above $80 and much that Kaz oil is not affected by sanctions, anything through Russian pipes is. The demise of our Putin should be great news dependant who his successor is.

Q1 will be a very busy period with 6 wells in progress at the same time. If they can get 141/142 back online and achieve the 4000 bopd they are expecting then the sp breaks out on that alone. 4000bopd @ netbacks of $32 = $46m pa and Casper becomes very profitable and divis will increase. We see sp movement from this shallow progress whilst the journey continues on BNG and Block 8. 4p ? market isn't recognising the fundamental value and zippo blue sky factored in but Q1 will hopefully see that change and a huge change in credibility/sentiment.

Hi Wolfi,

Yep, would’ve been good to see the oil prices achieved and by not doing so they always leave uncertainty , they’ll never learn.

Et Al,

No bad news which makes a change at this time of year. No bad weather excuses etc .

Good news that they’re buying a new rig for A7 so I suspect that they’re achieving healthy oil prices as they’re spending money whilst paying Divis.

802 drilling is a month behind but setting casing and I suspect that’s what went wrong last time as the oil bearing zone is just post the salt layer and they weren’t expecting to see oil at that level on the original drill. The oil is there, can they flow it ?

Other deeps - A5 sidetrack in Q1 and that’s the well I want to see flowing as it’s the most material. A6 and 801 progress will depend on outcomes on current 3 deeps ie 802/A7 and A5.

MJF - 155 delayed to Jan and allegedly work continuing on 141/142 whereas last operational update in Nov stated that all work suspended to Jan. Our Clive needs to get his facts straight but unfortunately sone things never change. Also 145 workover ?

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CASP/operational-update-and-dividend-declaration-w16dqe0s5nkgrqi.html

CE - we knew there were 2 possible projects that were discussed at AGM but no cigar yet, we live in hope.

Block 8 - Good news here as they’re proceeding and work will probably progress in 34 and they’ll know where they are with BNG deeps by then.

Also good to see production maintained but would’ve been god to see prices ! Loads on in Q1 and good to see commitment to the new rig. If they don’t charter CE, take the rig of and accelerate the deeps.

Q1, 3 deeps in progress and 802 result in a month. 3 wells on MJF and first horizontal on SY into new structure ? Trying to sell CE that would inject welcome cash and Divis continuing.

So much on the go in Q1 and a very high probability that we see sone healthy so appreciation :)

Evening McQ,

Was speaking to a pal tonight who has a large holding here and was looking to reinvest so we all have a different view. No more for me but will continue to trade on the fringes until we start the real journey north and will be all in as soon as I see that the ship is about to leave port .

Retired bids…lol, better have another glass !

Merry Xmas already ! there’s definitely sone retired bids on this BB ;)

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Putins-Energy-Weapon-Is-Losing-Strength.html

Urals on its arze but hopefully our Casper is selling most of its oil to the MRs.

Divi cash arrived on Monday but not going back into Casper, going into the profit pot and hopefully it builds as production increases.

Cmon Clive, you owe us a deep and before Xmas would be fantastic :)

No fibbing CC, just sitting back, waiting for the 802 news. Barge has obviously missed as it’s 6 months since tender and I suspect the intended project has been postponed, let’s hope not but time is running out for 23 season.

Weather has been freezing through December and night time temperatures between -10-20 degrees so hopefully no interruption to 802 but I suspect it’s not helping.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/kz/tengiz/1686182/december-weather/1686182

8 trading days left in 22, any positive announcement during this period, a time where market volume is thin, will see the sp shooting violently northwards. That’s what we need to shake things up and who knows, maybe 23 will be the year of the Sunrise.

I love the interest in whether i've sold a few, especially the comments from our biggest trader fickle fecker, that really is choice coming from you CC. Yep, i do have a trading pot and i've even disclosed that and yep the trading pot is there for some fun or should i say serious fun, to be traded whilst i wait for my payday, maybe before my 17th anniversary here.

Good to see crude recovering, hopefully affecting our domestic/MR numbers in a positive way. Up to my arze in biz due dilligence and coming to the end thank god, hence the lack of posting. SP holding up which is great and looking forward to see all the progress they've made according to the posting and alleged activity that's going on ;). On that basis, January should be awesome, maybe 802 before, let's hope so :)

CC.....lol, you want to do something about that paranoia ;)

McQ,

Yep :), each yo their own. There was money to be made when sp went from 3-4.6p and i it was a ‘rude not to’ moment for some. The sp is stuck in this range until barge or 802 news this year and that was the risk if you chose to trade. We’ll soon see whether they’ve been working on MJF wells but I don’t believe so and we’ll get results in late Jan , Feb maybe.

I’m not converting Divis to shares, it’s going into the cash pot and other ventures. 2023 beds to be the year that the sun rises fit this little OE company .

Don't see why peeps would be selling when ex divi date this week ? after yep and buying pre next ex divi date yep but hey, each to their own.

Casper needs to build production, anything else is just noise. Conserving the cash and managing operations whereas they'd have much more flexibility if they were $1.2m a month better off and spending it on the acceleration of operational activity on all assets. Should've held off until they'd shown the market they could get to 5000bopd as communicated and the divis would not only be affordable, they'd be more lucrative and maintainable.

It's very simple, do what an oil company should be doing, produce oil and loads of it and spend the money on that endeavour or am i missing something. Hopefully no excuses for lack of activity in Q1 and we get a result at 802 as that will really move this on and sentiment/credibility will return, hopefully as Putin decides to give up in Ukraine. Loads of upside and minimal downside if any but it's now time to deliver the goodies.

Un,

3000 bopd @ known netbacks of $31 based on a 50:50 split or $32 on a 60:40 basis. Is that what you're pumping into your spreadsheet ?

CC,

All in the PD but always good to qualify out. The revenue is the revenue, the costs are the costs, the tax is the tax and the divi is the divi. I'll focus on the facts as i know them and i'll wait for the next announcement. All the info on Bico over the years, all the alleged activity and we're still at 4p.

As stated, 802 drilling ahead hopefully and some results before year end and an active start to next year or maybe you're right with Google but not for me :)

Hi Kheldar,

Had a catch up with CC to qualify out the numbers so that i could fully understand b=netbacks monthly cash flows, obviously that changes by the day as there are so many variables. We've got the figures and gross revenues have declined but profitability increased. If oil prices have been maintained, netbacks would be $31 if oil sold 50:50, domestic/MR but hopefully tat ration is nearer 60:40 in favour of MRs but that's down to demand as always. You can worlk the revenue pre costs .

Lots of smaller buys today which is great to see but the sp hasn't moved so i suspect Mr/Mrs 250k is in the background. Bid/ask not changed much all day and with buys outstripping sells @ 3:1, you'd think the bid would strengthen, so obviously sellers trades not declared as yet. Bid 300k @ 4.12/Ask 275k @ 4.29 and a tidy 4% for the MM for larger trades.

CC,

Loads of activity now ? I don't buy that as the order of the day was cash conservation as per the last RNS ie all operations bar 802 on standby. Based on last numbers, they'll have c $2m of free cashflow and $1.2m of that is going in the divi pot. I have a different view and operations are on hold apart from field maintenance as to accelerate activities now would drain cash and jeopardise divis. Very happy to be proved wrong but i don't see it unless they had amassed a pile of cash as a little nest egg. Very happy to be proved wrong but why would they say suspension of activities ? makes no sense.

Added a few this morning and nice to see sp responded to a bit of buying and i suspect that will continue this week up to ex divi date part 2. A8 success will deliver the breakout we need and then an active Q1 with regular news flow supported by monthly divis :)

You’ll be spending it on more slow cars and fast women…lol Maybe another Triumph for the collection ;)

Wolfi, you don’t need any more dough ;)

Nice to see our Casper creeping up on low volumes.Peeps buying stock to be in position pre ex divi next Friday. Maybe see it continue next week and beyond hopefully. Will move quickly between Xmas and New Year as trading volume is generally very light so positive news will shake things up :)

Keep pumping CC...lol, let's hope our Casper is too ;)

CC, it's not me, the market is deciding the value of the divis and that's currently 4p so tell me what am i missing ? I believe the market will buy into it more providing production goes up as divis alone won't do it imo. We need fundamental strength and that only comes from increased reserves not income generation.