RE: re: RE: 2020 Results10 Jun 2021 12:20
That's a difficult question as a standalone deep success is the start of the process. The appraisal process and CPR will define what's in the ground, it will give the P1/P2 numbers which will define value. The initial seismic suggested that the reservoir targets were 100mmbls but it's been so long, i can't remember without checking the last IP (Investor Presentation). They are well overdue an update and hopefully our new COO will oblige. The 58km2 statement and the data collected showed the oil column @ c 100m for the wells drilled on A block to date. That's a huge find and much larger than the initial expectations but as we all know, that's yet to be confirmed and they'd need to get A5 flowing and 2 appraisals in order to undertake a new CPR and P1/2 numbers.
f your question is really what will happen to the share price on a deep discovery @ 1500 bopd, then that also is difficult but history has shown that 25p was achievable but as you know, hype played it's part back then. The difference today is that they've drilled 2 other wells, major drilling costs paid so if they could flow one, why not 4 with A9 plus future wells. If they can prove the 58km2 statement, the hype would be off the scale and it will get ramped, the Devonian will be in play and the share price will get well ahead of true value as happens in most cases. Also, they're far further ahead today than they were in 2013 from an operational perspective, know far more about the geology, the A block is far bigger than estimates from a reserves perspective and they have other assets like 3AB, CE and MJF that didn't exist then.
Re the Investor Presentation, i'd ask any investor to read the last one so that you could see what was expected. I find it laughable, actually fiction compared to the current position but the only way they change this is by proving up the first deep.
Loads of potential but at this juncture they need to flow that first deep to open Pandora's Box, that's when the real fun will begin . In the meantime, there's upside from MJF if they can get back on track with productive wells and who knows what will happen with 3AB and the CE opportunity. They need a competent partner for A9 or if they go it alone, they'll need an Appeal refund, SY back online and MJF with healthy production so they can fund from cash flow.
Clear as mud...lol
I
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