Member Info for KumKuat

The big pressure will come from the US or is coming. Funded by the Stare and ‘America First’ still in play. More production = over supply = lower prices and cycle continues. Why should Saudi cut when US not in line and the game goes on. There’s not enough demand and the key players will dictate the game but if there’s not agreement then there could be another crash.

Well we know why the sp didn’t move on the recent buys, somebody taking advantage of the 1m bid.

News is likely, either tomorrow or next week, hopefully not the Friday afternoon slot !

The trading would indicate some positive news, i'd like to think so but i'm not holding out for much positivity. I think the operational news will as was ie shallow production continuing, maybe a small drop off as it's Winter and weather, transport excuses likely.

Deeps, nothing new there and the only way out is getting a Partner who knows what they're doing. Our Clive states that they are as skilled as the local resources available but that's not bringing success. A bit luike the 'insanity' definition, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome ?

Barge rental, not expecting anything there either. Good development on the Lukoil piece but that's likely to managed by building offshore platforms rather than requirement for the barge but hoping i'm wrong. KMG were involved in the last CE rental and who knows, maybe we get lucky.

I believe the only ray of sunlight will come from the regulatory piece but i'm expecting more delays with Covid being cited as the reason.

I've learnt to set my expectations low and rarely disappointed sadly. Hopefully this isn't another RNS with loads of excuses for underperformance but i sense it will be although the trading isn't telling that story. As stated many times, please quote me happy, rockets not damp squibs. LTH's deserve a result and and maybe in the absence of good news, Clive's P45 would be a good place to start.

The trading is bizarre !

Yesterdays market to the close was well bid and could sell 1m @ 2.31p and maximum purchase of 250k @ 2.37p. This morning, the true market has dropped to 2.15-2.3p for the same volumes yet the trading is showing 1.2m buys. The 900k @ 2.5 is obviously a buy as are all the other trades. Questions on a postcard ??

Can't argue that there aren't headwinds as there are many but i still see us through $70 at some point this year. Pointless the US shale players over producing as it damages the price and heyho, they're back in the **** again. Unfortunately many players are indebted and just need revenue regardless. Opec and demand are the key and they'll have to continue to hold the line until Covid and associated demand pressure, dissipates.

Very weird trading today and market moved from 2.09-2.31 to 2.31-2.37p and no large buys ??? I can sell 7 figures @ 2.31p ! and maximum buy is currently 250k @ 2.37p. As you say, there must be a buyer, hopefully expecting news which must be imminent. I don't care about the timing, just that it's got positive content that enables us to get the rockets out but i'm not expecting to use them so let's see.

It’s an odd one but the price has receded 20% since the selling but as you say, they’re normally not shy in dropping the price when buyers absent. Don’t have the answer unfortunately.

I can't be the only one who hasn't got a clue re recent trading patterns. Largely selling and the sp is holding up. Today, another red day with 80%+ selling and still can sell 500k @ 2.098p ?

There's likely to be news pre month end but please let's not have any more excuses. Will they have regulatory updates ? let's hope so but Covid probably causing delays and looking at the vaccine rollout, no info on the web since planned rollout of Sputnik in Feb ?

I'm preparing for a disappointing news update with damp squibs not fireworks. Will our Clive prove us wrong, sadly, i'm not holding my breath.

Uncertain, take your pick.

AZ vaccine rollout wobbles
French lockdown
US inventory build of 2.5m barrels v an expected draw
High $
Opec+ continuing production cuts ?

Don't believe it breaks $60, i see it tracking back to $70and beyond providing Opec+ continue to hold in cuts until demand increases.

Good to see any investment into the N Caspian region. The big question is though, will they require the barge or are they setting up permanent platform/rigs ? As per below extract from Caspian pre acquisition.

'The Caspian Explorer became operational in 2012 at a time of relatively low oil prices and reduced exploration activity in the Northern Caspian Sea. In 2017, the Korean consortium decided to sell the Caspian Explorer by way of a competitive tender with the buyer being KC Caspian Explorer LLP.

In 2017, the Caspian Explorer was hired out to a KazMunaiGas / Indian state oil company joint venture for $28 million after costs and drilled one exploration well to a depth of 3.5 km. In 2018, the Caspian Explorer was hired out KazMunaiGas for up to $24 million drilling one exploration well to a depth of 1.8 km. The Caspian Explorer did not operate in 2019 or to date in 2020.'

Let's hope that appetite for the CE increases as that is a game changer. That with a successful appeal, South Yelemes and an active MJF drill schedule, i think we all agree that the current share price is a little oversold !

All buys yes but all sells last week and the market is offered, max sell 25k @ 2.1p.

Nice to see some buys today but needs a lot more than £13k to reverse the trend.

Uncertain,

Rocketeer, Fido etc, all very boring inane drivel. We all know there's news due but hopefully the last week of trading isn't a preview of the quality of news coming our way. I don't believe Caspian is a leaky ship. Anybody can contact Carver and co and be nice to them but anybody looking for inside info, no chance unless you're a very large shareholder and willing to go on the inside, my answer to that would be a resounding no.

Nobody has a clue re news, even Fido's Kazakh mate. I reckon news tomorrow and the sp is going to go up, recede or stay the same, must be clarevoyant.

Yep CC, sadly, many are underwater and i'm in that bucket although i've added considerable volume at recent prices but only worthwhile if they come good.

Don't understand why Clive is still in the club but maybe the move to NED, removal of Field mean the end but i'm not convinced. One thing that keeps me invested and that's KO's desire/need to make this work. Doing sweetheart deals can only go so far and i'm sure his colleagues, other Kazakh investors will be hurting and peer pressure in play. He certainly isn't an Oligarch, you need to be delivering production to benefit from that title. The only good thing that he hasn't diluted the golden hen to death and he knows that sp/m/cap appreciation is the way to that status. He doesn't win by selling or taking it Private, that's last resort stuff and certainly not the actions of an Oligarch.

I get the hump with it but i stay invested as there's still upside based on the current fundamentals.

Disappointing to see the sp demise this week and the market is offered so more to come. Volume not high but the emphasis is on selling so is that pointing to more disappointment come next news update.

The company communication has changed considerably since 2017 where the Pieman was on a beauty parade to drum up interest. The accelerated 24 well campaign on MJF, 58km2 sea of oil at Airshagyl, more M&A opps, building infrastructure etc. I do go back and read that shareholder presentation and it's actually laughable. A complete failure versus the expectations set. Any normal business would have seen heads roll, sadly delivering performance to justify earnings isn't the case at Caspian, actually it's probably true in AIM where most companies milk the system and dilute shareholders.

This company needs to redefine and communicate it's strategy. The last strategy document is over 3 years old and shareholders need to understand what the real plans are. What is the plan on MJF ? They should be generating enough cash to continue drilling wells, that must be a priority unless the opportunity as not as lucrative as first thought. Deeps, boat,3AB, infrastructure, future growth plans, M&A etc, shareholders need to see their 3 year plan and how to fund it to deliver growth.

Let's hope that the next update is not a disappointment but as we al know, the retail investor has no say in this company.

Uncertain, what did your spreadsheet show in Jan 2019 when sp was 14p and m/cap of £275m....lol

Do your calcs inc anything for Boaty or is that in the cost column. They have to realise some value from, the 3 other assets that could deliver ie boat, 3AB and a deep inc Devonian. In the interim, drill the living daylights out of MJF and qualify out the 5-6k bopd expectation set.

Current trading doesn't reflect it ! Can't sell a bean and the next tick is down in the absence of a buying spree. Amazed as to how well the sp is holding up but not for much longer unfortunately.

Yes, there's a likelihood of some positive news from the list that they could report on, hopefully BNG/SY as a starter with the some positive operational commentary.

Current netbacks ? Should be $40+ from the export production, what is the increased production ? hopefully to the contracted 70% ? By my sums, based on the 1620bopd (inc SY)@ a 70:30 split @ $42/$6 netbacks, they are generating more revenue than ever. The 30% domestic split @ 486bopd is insignificant and even if it trebled to previous levels of $20, the difference it makes is $2.5m pa.

Not sure how they treat the SY export/domestic split but probably on the same basis as BNG. By my sums, they'll be returning $18.5m which is 50% higher than 2019 numbers. Add in a a $20 return for the domestic oil and we're over $20m.

Continue workovers, spud a well on the cheaper 3AB intermediate opportunity and dril A8 to the Devonian, they can do that without dilution. The deeps ? a partner or contribution from the barge rental.

Potential for considerable upside but the market is not acknowledging it so they need to change that with the right news, only issue is, they have a habit of delivering disappointment !

Sadly, I don’t believe he’s on the bench but a P45 would be great development. Unless they’re in need of a cash raise, then his role is obsolete as what does he do ? A bit like Tim Field, engage them on a consultancy basis and no more share allocation.

He’s been in since the beginning and it’s unbelievable that after almost 14 years of underachievement, he’s still in the company ??

I remember 70p+ !

Hopefully the COO/CFO appointments are pointing at a spell of positivity. Shin is well connected in Kazakhstan and his Korean links are a possible avenue to investment. The CFO promotion from Financial Controller, is there corporate activity ? Boat rental, farm in ? is there a requirement for a Placing ?

I see the appointments as a positive one and an even more positive one would be to side-line the NEC as he has overseen the company sp demise to historic lows. Yes, our current board KO, Limerick etc would argue that Kuat has transformed the company since involvement, i think most investors would have a different view.

They need cash to accelerate the operational effort and much that export prices are delivering good netbacks, they'll need cash to meet licence commitments on the deeps, 3AB etc and is that going to be the CFOs focus this year. The boat rental would help greatly, maybe the KNOC link will part of that party ?

News soon, let's hope that for once it's going to make shareholders happy .

Well, there's enough due so hopefully a yes to news next week.

Somebody dumped 1.46m @ 2.4p and bid is still strong a 2.4p, max sell online 800k ? Always a mystery !

Good to see and speculation that Opec+ will hold in cuts as opposed to agreeing increases. Could be a little pump pre news ? Regardless, good for Caspian and as per last news, as mitigation to low domestic prices , they can sell a higher % to export market. That was a very positive statement and hopefully our new COO wants to announce good news in his first month in the job.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/officers/z5cl2eG_1Nx70icGK0QHgP1uGRE/appointments

As we can see, our Clive is a busy bee and i'm not sure how much time he spends on Caspian.

Uncertain, Patience....lol, i believe that's a given when investing in Roxi/Caspian.

As you say, news due on various fronts . Current m/cap reached the dizzy heights of £50m @ a mid price of 2.4p. Are we worth it ? Our Tommy Winnifreth would say we're worth zero, god knows how he comes to that assumption with MJF and the CE. Maybe MJF has issues after the last 2 wells but we'll only know the real value when a few more holes drilled and a CPR done but they won't do that until they get some more clarity on the deeps.

The Explorer rental contract ? all gone quiet but surely exploration will kick off this year in the N Caspian so that would be a welcome development.

For me, just get BNG sorted and build the cash reserves. Is it out of the question to have a sensible resolution, South Yelemes back on line and a rental contract, no shortage of cash then. That's why we invest and take the risk and wouldn't it be good to experience the 2014 experience (pre the crash !) where sp 8 bagged in short order. Will need a deep for that but maybe A5 gets there with a partner.

Always prepared for disappointment and the requirement to decipher the real meaning in Carver RNSs but just for once, let's have some great news.

Maybe CC but somebody has just lightened the load to the tune of 580k and the bid is still 1.2m @ 2.365p. Must be a buy order and somebody expecting news.