Member Info for KumKuat

Buy out ? No way as it would be at fire sale prices and PIs would get slaughtered.

JV/Farm in on the deeps, i'd buy that but i'm not sure if anybody is interested based on trach record. Sort the regulkatory stuff, get some cash in the bank, get shallow production up and poke a hole in 3AB and the Devonian. Continue with the remedial work on the deeps until they get Partner interest.

Margie,

That's one thing we can't dispute, they're a bunch of lying bustards.

There are several bags to be had regardless of deep success and the deeps will be an ongoing story. People will be pumping it as always but i agree that a flowing deep is the real catalyst and foundation to some sensible fundamentals and a healthy sp.

There won't be a gusher unless all the previous comms were a load of tosh. There is an argument that why would CASP push the production up until the BNG charge appeal is resolved. Also with MJF, why push production if 45% to the loss making domestic market. Will the production numbers increase post a successful appeal ? i hope so. Will A5 or 801 suddenly flow ? i hope so BUT i'm certainly not holding my breath.

Flow a deep...lol, did you read the last RNS !

Plenty of upside but the deep story is exactly that, a story. The only opportunity is probably A5, the only well that flowed commercially for X days although that's clouded in mystery. The initial communication re 3800 bopd, the flaring video and the hype. 6.5 years have passed since the initial A5 spud and probably $70m down the deep money pit, them's the facts.

The commentary re drilling another side-track on A5 when they're acknowledging a stuck pipe, spanner, Clive's lunch etc, is laughable, why would it flow after it's failed 3 times now ?

For me it's time to get the focus on the right areas ie

1. Sort the outstanding regulatory bits. BNG charge resolution would help greatly and if successful there's likely to be a refund coming their way.
2. Get South Yelemes export licence sorted, much needed revenue
3. Set out the MJF drill schedule for the remaining X wells
4. Drill the Devonian. If they sort 1 & 2, they can go it alone but that doesn't fill me with hope
5. Spud a well on 3AB and access the intermediate opportunity below Dunga or sell it.
6. Partner with somebody on the deeps but i suspect that nobody's interested
7. Rent the barge or sell it as N Caspian exploration is likely to pick up as Covid dissipates

Anybody invested here (long) will nake money as the stock is oversold. They need to get the regulatory shoite sorted and they'll have options. A boat rental would obviously be fantastic but get the 'going bust' fear out of the way, generate more income from the shallows and they'll have options.

Yes, cash will be tight and several unknowns ie

- what price are we achieving for oil sales currently
- what is the export/domestic sales ratio
- oil trader debt

They’re producing more oil than in 2019 where average was 1250 ish and oil prices are not far off as 2019 was $64. The real issue has been domestic price, the change in invoicing and the additional boat charge. To counter, they’ve cut costs and slowed operations. Oil will go north, domestic prices will recover and the operational activity will resume.

Boat revenue would be a game changer as would a deep but I’m not holding my breath there. A partner for the cash draining operational is the way through.

Providing no regulatory problems, things could resume to normal sooner than many think,.

Maybe i have the blinkers on but i see this as hugely oversold based on the fundamentals. MJF alone is worth multiples of current sp. Maybe i'm overcalling it but the objective was 24 wells and probably 5-6k bopd ? 200-250 bopd per well ? Plenty of oil to be recovered over X years if you believe the P1/2 numbers. Yes there will be depletion but there will be workovers and that's part of the field development plan.

Crude going up and i believe this will continue as the controlling bodies are doing that, controlling the supply as demand recovers from Covid destruction. Current netbacks from export @ $30+, diesel deman and domestic prices will increase. Probably receiving $19 net currently across exprt/domestic and the split is 55:45 as per last communication, in favour of export. When will this go to 70% on MJF as agreed, also SY will have the production licence.

I'd ask any investor here to calculate revenues and take a good look at the last financials. They're producing 1445bopd average without 141/151 & South Yelemes and there's allegedly 650 there so average production should be 2-2.1k? They should be generating more revenues than at any other time in their history and that's with domestic prices on their arze.

Yes they have the BNG charge cost but there has to be a cost on agreement to move to production licence. People will scaremonger re the $32m debt, that's over 10 years and they've been paying it since licence award. Hopefully they negotiate this down but even at full charge it doesn't take them down. I believe a deal gets done as i'm sure they want companies like Caspian to continue trading so they can develop the assets and increase licence payments to the State.

The move from upfront payments to an arrears arrangement has caught them out and Covid has exacerbated the problem. As per my calcs, they're making enough money to cover costs and some, especially as operations have been slowed and cost cutting implemented.

Boaty is a cost, a pain without a contract but looks good on the balance sheet but they need to rent it or flog it, we'll know more this year re great move or white elephant.

I maintain it's oversold and money to be made. On the face of it, MJF value is more than current sp, nothing else priced in whether that be the deeps, Boaty, 3AB, the deeper oportunity in the Devonian etc. Unloved and the management not covered themselves in glory unfortunately. Hopefully Clive moves on, they sort the regulatory crap and surprisingly things improve.

Not for widows and orphans but hey, if you want to make big money, you have to take risk although i agree, this is risky !

Volume tiny and the only winners being the MM's with silly spreads, not so silly for them !

Crude oil prices will be helping matters greatly and export netbacks should be healthy. Domestic market should be picking up as demand for diesel increases so hopefully double figure prices not too far away.

Need to sort the regulatory issues so they know what they're dealing with going forward. Revenue will be healthy if receiving $30+ from export and domestic moved from the $6 historic lows. Also would be good to see the production slpit move 70:30 as contracted.

Undervalued and unloved but the market needs to see resolution of the charge and licence awards/deferral . Many bags to be had on MJF alone but the regulatory piece is holding them back. Not concerned re 'going concern' piece, according to my sums, revenues should be higher than historic levels and that's without 141/151 and South Yelemes. Also costs slaughtered but we are carrying the barge.

All about being patient and hoping that there isn't anything sinister going on in the background

I’m not usually surprised by Carver’s shoite RNS’s but he surpassed himself today. The fat lying f####r was on top form and fluent BS continues, the trouble is, he can’t remember where he left his last pasty let alone write coherent RNSs. Moved to non exec Chair ?? get rid of him ffs. A liar and getting shot of him is a positive development. I’ve made my feelings known to Kuat as have many others and hopefully the message has got through .

Time to stop messing about with the deeps and focus on revenue generation and who knows, the bleeding barge may be our salvation although surprisingly, no mention of it from the fat one today.

Seriously f****d off but pointless selling out at the bottom or nEar bottom. Cut all cost, especially Clive’s inflated salary, sort the bloody appeal, bring SY back online and do the work overs properly to build the cash so they can fight another day. Oil will go up and so will revenue so not the end of the road !

It is but i've never seen news issued on a Kaz PH.

Kaz Public Hols tomorrow and if we're going to get it, Wed, Thurs, preferably not Fri. Happy to wait for the right news .

I believe news tomorrow or Wednesday. 1 Dec is a Public Holiday ‘Day of the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan ‘. Don’t particularly care as long as it’s flip pin positive.

24p and a lot more if they deliver the results. Deep success odds are against them with 6 years of failure to date but they still persist and if no success from acid then got to progress with a partner and share some of the spoils.

All about asset value conversion. For a small company they have many assets that could be the catalyst to better times. Accelerate the shallows to generate cash to facilitate the operational program on 3AB and who knows, the boat could generate enough cash to enable them to continue solo on the deeps / Devonian, whether that’s sensible or not.

News this week and let’s hope it’s not full of Carver excuses.

Silly me, yes, Clive falling on the Caspian sword, more chance of flowing a deep.

Uncertain,

Don’t believe we’ll be waiting til Jan, smells like this week to me. The 34m, combination of rumour mongering, the camp fires, transportation tender, CNOOC (lol) and TA, we’ll find out wether there was any reason or not.

We’d all like to see a deep flowing but I re know we’ll come up short and the next step will be partnering so that they can focus on revenue generation. Love to be wrong but the odds are against it. I’d settle for a positive update on the appeal , a deep partnership and who knows, boaty gets a. Contract.

Disappointed so many times so not raising my hopes but, if e did get the deep news, god, It will be pumped off the boards.

34m traded on Wednesday and no real sell off. P&D or more to it ? Got to be some news this week and plenty of options on the menu.

1. Deep update
2. Shallow prod update inc current numbers
3. Appeal outcome
4. Licence deferral position
5. Partner on deeps
6. Boaty rental/JV

All of the above are on the menu and material so let’s hope that the news is largely positive. Rockets or damp squibs, hoping for the former and no CS.

Been here so many times but if it was flowing , yes, this would fly. Depends on the content of the rns -;

'We are pleased to announce that affter successful acid treatments and additional drilling,deep well (s) X is/are flowing at 2000 bopd of 46api oil. We have had uninterupted flow at this level at a choke level of x for 30 days now and about to put onto a 30 day flow test. We believe that after numerous false dawns, we have now created the operational techniques and methodology to enable us to unblock and commercialise all of our deep prospects'

The hype will be ridiculous whether one well or more as 1 success should mean that others can fall. The CPR will then go up the priority list and new broker note etc. It will get silly as everything will be bigged up, boaty, 3AB, Devonian riches and billions of barrels....lol

History has shown this is very unlikely and i'm my expectations remain low but very happy to be surprised.

Placing ? Anything is possible but i would think that's crazy at this price. They cash crisis has passed, oil receipts increased, costs down, operational spend reduced, why do they need cash ? If it was a small amount, short term one again, it doesn't make sense unless oil traders were demanding payment, possible i suppose OR if KO is in the shoite and potless.

If it was to fund larger operations on the deeps ? that wouldn't make sense at this level and there are other options ie partnering, deferral to licence commitments etc. I understand that there will be a funding requirement to build the infrastructure to transport oil effectively ie pipeline, refinery etc but that's not being done when the sp is on it's arze.

Got to be news next week after a 34m share spike and we'll know shortly whether it was a P&D or whether there is good reason for the little spike. Personally, i'm hoping that one of the deeps is flowing commercially but i'm not betting the house on it !

There is some good news, 2.6p is better than 1.5p ??

Reason for the crash from 14p (£275m) 2019 high to 1.5p ?
- Continued failure to get deeps to flow
- Covid effects on operations/cash flow - that plus payment from oil traders, advanced to arrears based
- MJF charge dispute - should hear soon
- Buying boaty - good or bad
- Continual dilution through asset acquisition - good or bad
- Fear of taking Private, being sold or falling out with Kazakh authorities
- Comms are shoite and Clive's a lying bustard

Worth 54m ?

Fundamentals
- Boaty value ? - Purchased for $25m and current worth post acquisition $4 ! Real value will come from rental or taking part in a JV on offshore prospects
- MJF ? - Prod should be 2500bopd+ with SY and plans to drill 24 wells. Take 250bopd average so when FDP completed, the field should produce 6000 bopd. Oil at $60 ? 70/30 split, export @ $40 net, domestic back to $10-15 ? P1/P2 numbers 18/27mboe, you can do the sums
- Deeps - oil discoveries at all, none flowing commercially to date. Company believe that reservoir is connected hence the 58km2 statement. More appraisal wells to be drilled 802, A9 etc. Failure on latest acid aplications/drilling etc, is it time for a new partner ?
- Devonian - unknown as not driled
- 3AB - Need to spud a well to meet licence commitments or defer

As i see it, they're self funding currently, probably making a profit and paying down some of the oil trader debt whilst prudently managing operations. Increasing oil prices and production = more revenue and enables them to accelerate the operational schedule. The deeps ? if they fail now then i believe they'll partner and focus their spending on revenue generation from MJF whilst sticking a hole or 2 in 3AB.

The boat may not turn out to be a white elephant and exploration activity will resume in the N Caspian so hopefully it was a wise purchase.

The flaring, oil transportation tender for NY, the CNOOC 15p takeover.......lol are all catalysts for yesterdays move and probably news next week that will make things a little clearer or no??t

No way George.

Strapped ? We both know that’s codswallop. Our beloved Carver stated $23.5 from $40gross, an increase from the 21 bucks from the previous communication but we know he can’t tell the truth. Oil at $48+ and probably $28 for the export element,was 55% but upside to 70%. Domestic on its arse as diesel demand shot but that will pick up as will crude. So, not skint and smells like some.bods want to pump this. As I said, news next week, let’s see if there’s any foundation or is it more BS.

Cnooc rumour....lol from the poster MeOLeChina......lol

Happy to eat humble pie but no chance. Flaring, NY transportation tender now a takeover...lol

I don’t want 15p, neither does Clive, Ed and our Tim.

News next week, let’s see if there’s some substance or is this all p&d, not long to find out.

Thanks for that Adrianz.

801 successful ? They stated that they'd apply the 'special' acid to 801 if successful at A6&A8. I'm still wearing the cynical hat but i'd welcome any positives on the deeps. The fact that they're planning to drill 802 or looking to defer it until they have funding or source a partner, suggests that they're still bullish re getting these to work.

News is overdue and they must have material info to release this week or next. Regardless, it's good to see some positive sentiment, just needs some positive news to back it up.