Member Info for KumKuat

Nothing wrong with qualifying out our concerns and ensuring that our understanding is correct on many fronts. What's wrong with giving the real detail on A5 and A8 ? Oil flowing to the surface but not at previous levels ? We're the mushrooms again, having to translate the crap info. No different to the 1500 bopd statement when A5 was flowing for x days. Needs to advise the market as to the true position, A5 is flowing oil @ x bopd and next steps, hopeful that we'll get it flowing @ commercial rates by x. If it's a trickle, unlikely to flow then tell us but sadly we all know the real truth.

They've given investors the forum to ask some important questions so let's ask them.

I took it to be revenue net of costs. another one to qualify out via the questions opportunity.

The company have added 'shareholder questions' to the website so very important that we ask pertinent questions. Lots of scaremongering on various blogs , new names appearing etc, always going to happen when you hot the losers leaderboard.

The 'going concern' element needs to be qualified. I'm not overly worried about the $3.8m to oil traders, $5m to KO, i'm more interested to understand current incoming oil revenues. Domestic at historic lows so i'm assuming that 40% of the existing 1600 bopd is at that but needs qualifying. So the other 960bopd is at c $21 ? They stated on the AGM answers that $40 gross will return $21 net of costs, important to qualify that out. By my reckoning that generates c $735k from current production with 141,144 and SY shut in 300 bopd on top. Add 151 to that and that's way over 2500bopd, we can all work out the sums.

My concern is that they're not achieving the $21 so important to get that confirmed. The only other big risk is the oil price.

Also interesting to see the commentary on A5. They're never going to flow it at full choke but they've stated that oil flowing to surface but not at rates previously encountered. What does that mean ? at the 2k it flowed for hours back in 2014 or 3800bopd ? A fair question to ask, what is it currently flowing at ? They know the details, it's material and it should be in the public domain.

Personally, i'm going to add another sizeable chunk, i did it back in the earl days where the situation with Roxi was far worse. Not going under but it would be good to get some more meat on that bone.

And for the previous X years, it's been the last week of Sept.

Personally, i'd be very disappointed to see the ops update in the Interims but again, this is Caspian.

Clive will be sorting the interims and historically they’ve been released in the final week so no surprises I’d they’ll leave it til then. Let’s hope he’s not crafting another episode of Carverspeak. Worst case 2 more weeks !

Can't disagree with the lack of trust, that's why many private investors have abandoned ship. Clive has been inconsistent with his communication, contradiction and misleading commentary is there for all to see and the latest and most misleading one of all was the A5 flowing at 1500 bopd when it certainly wasn't.

You've either got to dump it and take the paper loss or stick it out and deal with poor communication. At this juncture, they are coming to the end of the road on the current deep strategy unless the acid works, personally i doubt it. They are then forced to adopt a new strategy as they have licence commitments on A9 and 802 and pointless drilling them and wasting more money so they have to change direction. They also have stated they will drill to the Devonian and can be drilled from A8 TD providing its not FUBAR.

Aibek on the board now. To replace Dad and knock over the ducks ? hopefully not to use his ISP skills putting the company into receivership, i think that's very unlikely.

I stay invested as on paper there's huge upside from shallows, 3AB, deeps, even the barge but i've been believing that for sometime so now would be a good time to start delivering .

Additionally, much that they've had no commercial success on the deeps, if they wanted the sp down, a few P&A announcements would have sent this lower or poor news on MJF etc.

Private not the game, only an absolute last resort and even then i believe they will fall foul of the Kazakh authorities.

News please

Not to be ruled out but that specific question was asked in the AGM questions and the answer was a resounding NO. If they wanted to dilute this to death they could have done so with the barge deal, the strike price could've been half the price. The same with the rigs, 3AB etc.

Private isn't the answer, they get their payday from sp appreciation .

I see the boys are at it again...lol. Investors beware ??

Plain and nose are order of the day, beware ??

I'm not so sure on A5 as they did state on 2 occasions that they're applying acid to 4 wells. Maybe i'm wrong with that assumption but my reading is that they've fixed the pipe, well not flowing due to mud blockage hence the acid treatment. They had removed 3 tons of mud, it was nothing but a trickle and had well on small choke to sustain pressure. We could assume that they haven't repaired the pipe yet and acid is due to be part of the process ?

We're used to waiting for news from our Clive but the medium/long term positioning re shareholder return didn't make sense when they state that the deeps are all receiving acid treatment in August. They've also stated they were hopeful of getting at lease 2 to flow at commercial rates.

Hi Uncertain,

I believe the Q&A session gave you many of the answers that will come via the next RNS.

- 151 getting to TD and expecting to go into production. Obviously not tested yet but should be another producer @ 300bopd+ ?
- A5 - you can read between the lines there. They've stated that acid is now on Kaz, i presume on site and 4 wells will be treated in Augusts. I'm assuming that A5 isn't flowing or not flowing at the rates they want hence the acid treatment
- Netbacks, good to have the numbers and we can calculate the annual revenue based on those. They also stated that domestic prices were at an all time low so i'm assuming the worst amd taking $10 as per previous guidance
- Not taking the company private good to know
- Good to get the prod nos from 8 MJF wells at 1800-2000 bopd plus Yelemes and 151, 152 to follow
- Yelemes licence - next RNS

Missing out on potential returns if not waiting to see deep success and eventual dividends. I don't know about you but i've been waiting a long time and their commentary ie medium/long term, what does that mean in days, weeks, months, years or decades ?

The acidi work on 4 deeps is a quick process and results will be know n in August so that seems to contradict the med/long term statement ? If the acid works and the deeps flow, surely that's a short term result and the catalyst to considerable growth as stated ?

I've taken considerable volume at these levels, a few more this week too as i believe it's oversold but ultimately the share price is the measure and it's stuck in a rut. Shareholder sentiment probably at an all time low and the only way they change that to realise real shareholder value is to deliver a deep.

Clive, get on with it sir, you have 4 pokes of getting one to flow now, i'd call that short term return or are you fibbing again !
- Yelemes licence - hopefully next RNS

I believe all know the protagonists but enough of that, time to make a few quid on this stock, hopefully for the longs.

Going pop - nope
Loading more assets in at this level - possible but I hope not until the sp increases some way and those assets to hold real value
Taking it private - possible too but I don’t believe that’s the game

Investing here, not without risk from the above scenarios but the basics ie the fundamentals will continue to strengthen yet the sp is on its knees. Some are probably adding whilst creating fear, as I stated in my last post, more fool those for selling unless they’re averaging down of course.

Next couple of months will yield good news on 151, 152 to follow, who knows on the deeps.

It’s your investment, always read the GOOD research but most of that sits with each of us and no one to blame for losing your shirt.

Strong buy for me and if oil stays at this level, even stronger.

We all have opinions thankfully but certain posters have agendas, work as a team to serve that agenda. Many here know the players and the strategy is as plain as the nose on ones face.

Caspian isn’t going under, the stock is oversold and much that the certain few like their ‘research’ it’s distorted to suit the agenda.

Anybody selling now thinking their going under deserves to lose money. The only way this goes down is if oil crashes for a sustained period and even then it’s unlikely as they’ll go to market if KO not able to fund.

Oil is very likely to continue the trend north and MJF production will increase and operations are resuming, we can all work out the net revenues based on the domestic/international split.

It looks like the bulk of the volume is a Kazakh seller not reading the same script as the rest of the gang, I believe that gets sorted.

M/cap just over £60m with an asset that is being priced up and yet again, we can work the numbers based on 24 well campaign.

Ignore the negativity, look at the facts and make your call. My agenda is a simple one, keep adding as this is way oversold and sentiment will change in Q3.

Re Clive oe should i say the leadership team, i'm with you Adrianz. We are but pawns in this game where 1.8bn post CE share issue, are held by Kazakhs.

On the info published to date, MJF should produce 6-8k bopd when FDP objectives met, that in itself gives us a considerable return from here.

With regards to deep success and whether they've finished with their self serving asset games, we will always be guesing. If they did continue to fill the pot to build the m/cap, then the game is a simple one but the sp will have to go north at some point, depends if you are willing to wait.

CC,

CV in Kazakhstan peaked 2 weeks ago and new cases declining IF you can believe what's published. 12,859 cases, 56 deaths, 7376 recovered.

Oil production not declined in Kstan or should i say they're still cheating and not adhering to Opec+ guidlines along with other trustworthy countries like Nigeria and Mexico ! It would seem that operational effort continues or is the production from storage ? Tengiz workers accounted for 15% of infected cases in the country as was reported a couple of weks ago yet still producing volume.

Re workers quarantine ? i suspect that they will continue operations with existing workers and manage the transition effectively so i am expecting work to continue. If there is no progress on Caspian's operations then i suspect it's more down to operational problems than workforce and parts/materials . As we know, Caspian not the best with communications and you need to be a mind reader to understand most RNSs.

I'm bullish from this level as there is minimal downside risk, the upside is there to be seen but as always, are they operationally capable, don't know.

Maybe 'm wrong but i'm not expecting great operational progress as Covid 19 has slowed everything down. Should get prod numbers this week, 1700, 2000 or make up your own numbers. Finals to follow but looks as we're going back to Roxi timings ie June , morst likely the end of.

I don't believe they've fixed the pipe on A5 but if they have then probably need acid as it's been shut in, don't know. 15 news will be positive, hopefully at TD but they were on a 'steady as we go' plan but maybe $42 oil has changed that mindset.

Our seller continues unfortunately and they are are drag on sp progress.

Awax,

Re bonus scheme, yes they did and yes they make money as sp and m/cap appreciates but wouldn't it be nice if Clive and Tim get some skin in the game, maybe then they'll be a little more articulate or should i say accurate when communicating with the investor base.

Nice to see the sp moving, probably in anticipation of the 2019 Finals, hopefully with a positive operational update and an encouraging forward looking statement.

Uncertain,

You're figures are plausible, the key ingredient, MJF being nailed on and delivering 7000 bopd. Dividend paying company ? wasn't one of my expectations, i expected them to sell out as soon as they could prove up the deeps and justify the acreage potential with some good reserves numbers.

Adrianz has alluded to the fact that their communication is shocking, it is. How many RNS corrections do they have to make ? often after PIs have contacted Clive or the Nomad, it isn't good enough. We are powerless to change that as the cards are held by KO and co and we can but hope that it improves or sell on.

MJF at 7000bopd ? has to be achievable when 143,150 and 153 are producing at 500 bopd+ but as always the communication is poor eg 1700, 2000, 2300 with Yelemes which is only producing c100 bopd ? Last A5 update, was producing xbopd per day, that's oil not mud and how long did it flow for, not very long and figures extrapolated.

Caspian's biggest issue is credibility and the only thing that changes that is a deep success where their many misgivings will become history as the hype kicks in. We have to hope that they get there this year as that's when all of us make money and there is good news, it is a free punt from this level and there's not many stocks in that bucket.

What is the NAV for Caspian ?
M/cap £73m pre the CE acquisition
Production @ 2300 bopd with Yelemes or is that 2000 or 1700 ?

The share price crashed to 2.4p, oil prices the same to $19. Share price bounced to 6p+ pre oil price rebound and sp receded to current levels. MJF projections of 6-8000 bopd, if we take the mean, that's 290bopd from each of the planned 24 wells. Some wells will produce over 500bopd as per 143,150 and 153 and others on the reservoir periphery will probably produce 100bopd so the mean value of 290 bopd is more than achievable. What is MJF true NAV based on the recover expectation over the 29 year production licence ?
The sp and NAV are currently way out of kilter, no value for the deeps or other assets in the portfolio. Sunk costs on the deep wells are probably $60m+ as of today and zero value in current NAV. The volume has dissipated over the last few weeks as PIs, probably the larger holders have chased far better returns in other stocks. We have a persistent seller or sellers that continue to absorb any buying interest in a thin market, Kazakh or PI ?

Oil price over $41 and likely to continue it's run if Opec/Opec+ commit to cuts and June/July contracts will spike as supply destruction continues.

If we take 2000 as the current MJF production, 60000 bopm at a net back of c $20, we can all calculate what the revenues are and the trend on production and oil price will continue the journey northwards. Each well at MJF in the short term will be adding 10000 bopm, the average oil prices in 2018/2019 were c $70 so we can see what production revenues are likely based on sensible valuations.

The deeps have been a disaster but the company believe that A5 will deliver and there has to be another strategy if the acid does not resolve the overbalanced drilling and the resultant Barite mud blockage issue. If no success in 2020, maybe time to farm out or JV with another partner skilled in delivering challenging deeps, not easy I know and probably unlikely.

I still maintain there's huge sp appreciation from the current levels. MJF alone delivers healthy returns but will the real value be unlocked ? Kuat, family and friends are running it like a lifestyle business, the asset accumulation, tax planning, share dumping has to stop if we are to make real money.

Kuat and co make real money when the sp goes north. I'm sure KO or Aibek want to be the local big shots and the eventual value creation comes from a production company that's doing what they say ie producing oil in volume rather than building the m/cap through asset acquisition that deliver little return.

Time to get off the pot and deliver as to the 'special' company plan. Undervalued today but sentiment and credibility shot hence the current m/cap. The company need to solve the deep conundrum quickly or get somebody in who can or this saga will run and the exploratory phase at BNG will have come to an end. One deep success, we know what happens next.

Mr C,
As you're aware, there are many posters that look to mislead others and to profit from their activity. You have been invested long enough to know who those posters are and the drivel continues.

My post below is probably too bullish. Unlikely to get 12 wells on MJF as last RNS stating that 153 on production by end Q2. 2 wells v 18 target so I'd be happy with 6+.

Still an opportunity to see real returns providing MJF delivers and A5 progresses. Don't see much downside unless 150 is a problem. A5 as stated, is a game changer.

Good luck with your investment and ignore the BS.