Member Info for KumKuat

Bid demand just picked up nicely. Can sell up to 800k @ 4.125p, up to 1m @ 3.99p. Somebody got appetite for a few more :)

Rhertig, I agree.

Kazakhstan need individuals to take on the smaller blocks that corporations won't be interested in unless they find considerable reserves. There's pressure on the OE industry, especially with the green agenda and Kaz are certainly not going to want to lose their existing partners.

There was always risk on the geopolitical front but that's now increased from low but we'll know more as things progres. Taking out the geopolitical piece, the fundamentals support a higher price and the asset base outside MJF carry no value, YET. For the first time in a long while, they have the cash to exploit the asset base and we are going to find out pretty soon whether we are going to benefit from deep production and the other assets.

Could KO be a pal of Nazabayev ? god knows but if he was i'd have thought that we'd have had a lot more help in getting licences approved going back to his time in office, that's not a worry to me. We'd have also seen huge selling and the owners of the business running for the hills.

Personally, i'm hoping that some positive change comes out of this to prevent future instability and the regime has the chance to do that. Stepping over the border to join Putin....lol, that's not going to give them a better life, over 70% in Kaz are Muslims and that won't happen, only by force but the West, NATO will be in that game, if it got to that, the world needs to start worrying.

Money to be made and lots of it, the risk element has created the opportunity for more to be made.

Adrianz,

Thankfully we have differing views, wouldn't it be a boring world if we didn't.

I don't disagree with the comment re being insane to hold in but the gravity of the situation was not evident when it kicked off and easy for me or anybody to comment with hindsight. It could've been a minor disturbance and the government resignation ? that was due for change anyway , the rest is now history and the future, yet again, that's down to our own personal views.

You believe Corporates will have to toe the party line , Why ? Kaz need foreign investment, the hundreds of billions that make the wheels turn isn't going away and Kaz is trying to attract further investment not push it away. They will need to ensure the continuation of relationships cultivated over many years. I would say it's the other way round, Kaz have to quickly show the world that they're a safe place for corporations to invest.

Clive and 'terrorist' activity within the Caspian workforce ? I did ask the question and got his response which i did publish and the fact that they're back in production after a few days says a lot. Are Caspian employees unhappy ? I don't know as haven't had a sensible response to my question but the party line was, protecting safety of staff and assets. If there is unrest, they've dealt with it quickly and maybe an opportunity to improve industrial relations. The fact that they gave bonuses to workers for 154 success was encouraging to see and maybe that bonus culture will now continue on a performance basis.

I'd agree that some lustre has disappeared from the investment as there are new unknown risks that have to be considered. I'm not a knocker but if i wanted to go on the offensive, that would be easy eg Russian angle, further riots, Ukraine situation, KO an Oligarch...lol, a very poor one i'd say. The chaos has added an additional level of risk but a higher reward for those who are willing to take that risk. I'm not leveraged and can afford to take that risk, it certainly isn't for everyone. I believe stability returns, the Russians will pullback providing it does and they'll definitely get a few favours as a result. Tokayev won't turn his back on Western money as they are the main investment player across most industries in Kaz, China will want a bigger slice (the development of the Silk Road' etc) and Kaz will be keen to ensure that they continue to attract as many players as possible.

Thank god we're all different, life would be very boring if we weren't :)

Another tick up coming as bid @ 4.28 for 200k.

Un,
Buys outweigh sells @ 4:1 and must have a seller in the background but each to their own. The fundamentals are strong with the company generating almost $6m pm and for the first time in their history, generating considerable profit. The upside potential pre riots was hugely in our favour, the chaos has taken a little shine off proceedings but that will change as time moves on. The knockers will want to see some more instability, that's something we can't control but the fact that they're back in production is a huge positive. Easy to knock the stock by taking the Oligarch/Soviet angle but if our KO was to be a casualty, we'd have seen huge selling, not a few million. PIs control this stock not the big boys who are waiting for sp appreciation, dividends and eventual payday from an exit.

Not for everybody but based on what we know, this has considerable upside to come :)

Another little tick up coming. Going to need the stability to continue, it will as there's little option for the population but more importantly, we need continued good news that will bring in new money and new investors. I haven't added today as my last feed was on Friday and all down to Casper to continue improving the fundamentals.

3m bought, 300k sold, definitely have a seller as sp should be much higher now. True market 4.06-4.23p and as we all know, if it wasn't for the unrest, we'd be much higher. We're back at the sp pre the great 153 result and SY licence award and the shine taken off by the troubles. Those with appetite for risk will add at this level but many will still sitting on the fence, waiting to see what transpires over the coming days. There was considerable volume traded last week, most of it was selling so providing it wasn't leveraged and peeps are broke, then this will come back into the market. Some people will need convincing to get back in now, i get that but this is under priced on fundamentals with lots of very material news to come this quarter.

As always, tick, tock.

Was expecting more of a bounce but heyho i'll take it. Still down 20% from the 5p pre start of riots but i expect there will be some trepidation from many punters. 2.7m traded and 99% sells, should've moved higher, obviously have somebody trading, letting a few go.

All about timing for Casper now ie when to release positive news on the drilling front. Shallows will continue to build revenue whilst we wait for the first deep and the barge bonus.

The fact that they're back in production so quickly is good news for all longs so let's hope things continue and investor confidence returns.

Yep, a return to production RNS would be good news. Still not loads of news coming out of Kaz but I’m sure Casper are keen to get back to daily activities.

KO gave bonuses gir ge 154 success, maybe the same on 153 was done but if they did have done unrest then maybe a bonus on all successful operational outcomes, a win win.

The news feedback is that all is under control and I suspect there’s still dissent from done but pointless with shoot to kill orders ! We will get back into production and more importantly, continue the recent successes achieved in H2 2021.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/life-in-almaty-kazakhstan-returning-to-normal-after-protests/2469433

Clive leading the revolt for extra pay…lol .

Let’s hope that we’re back online next week. Many investors have dumped so we could see a quick reversal tomorrow especially if there was a RNS to help us along.

I don’t believe our Kuat is an Oligarch…lol Fingers in pies I agree but running Casper for the last 14 years hasn’t exactly made them money. 2021, the first year in 14 to turn a profit and they were bleeding heavily in 2020 and came close to going pop. KO wasn’t prepared to risk anymore of his cash so I don’t believe you can say he’s an Oligarch or maybe a very unsuccessful one to date.

Casper is a 2 bit player with aspirations of becoming a mid sized OE company in Kaz, realising the potential of BNG after 14 years. An local employer of 200+ heads and Kaz needs more investment from players like Caspian to drive tax revenues from these operations.

Tengiz at 1.6m bpd growing to 2.45m and they’re not pulling back from that opportunity unless everything went Pete tong !

As you say, oil, uranium, agriculture, services, partnerships with all the big boys . Crypto crash must’ve really hurt the retail punters and that’s sad as most will be the younger punters, spending more time gambling when working from home. I see it with family, my staff in the office and if it did crash, it would be the same old story of rinse and repeat as the bigger boys and institutions pick up the cheapies.

Kaz will want to get train back on rails ASAP. We’ll know more shortly as Kaz comes back online.

Much that info coming out of Kaz is minimal, it looks as if things are calming down. Allegedly large oil fields are online as are refineries and ports unaffected. There will obviously be negotiations from the industrial actions from oil workers and maybe that’s well overdue.

The more I read about the situation of the last few days, it looks like infighting with the Kazakh elite families, those in power and I’m sure there are many factors in play that we’ll never understand. Is the Kremlin involved, a play to help with current discussions with NATO re Ukraine, Crimea etc. A game for the big boys and been going on for years.

As stated, foreign investment is critical to Kaz economic success and they’ll be determined to get things back to normal ASAP and not to jeopardise trade relationships.

Huge money being spent on Tengiz expansion as below and this will continue, as will investment from many of the large players.

“Chevron and its partners are engaged in a $45 billion expansion project at Tengiz, expected to raise capacity to 850,000 b/d, with completion expected between the end of 2023 and mid-2024”

Caspian are on the cusp of some considerable profitable revenue growth and to realise the potential from all its assets. 30% decline in a few days ad fear and panic set in and at a time where we were expecting the next leg up not down.

Hopefully we see a positive RNS from Clive next week resuming production and some further good operational news delivered at the right time. This has the potential to double in short order , fingers x’d.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.inform.kz/en/amp

HG,

That was the position most of the day on Friday and stock is liquid especially after days of healthy buying/selling.

Un,
Tokayev is definitely seeing the opportunity to get rid of Naz and his control. The risk is going to close to Russia but that political game will be played by the big boys and they won’t be suddenly turning their back on billions of investment, Tokayev wants the opposite, a bit of what Naz has enjoyed for 30 years !!

Hopefully Casper will be flogged after they’ve proved up the deeps.

Badge,

Order will resume and little minnow Casper will get on with its business. KO and Concert Party owning 70% of this play and they’re not running for the hills. Casper is tiny, 3k bopd and as you say, maybe a wake up call re staff and remuneration if they have unrest on the company, we don’t know. It’s a simple fix and far easier now as they’re generating x6 more revenue than in early 21.

Nowt we can do about the far bigger political game, the big boys will be controlling that but one thing is for sure, they’ll want to get trade back on line ASAP and oil is key to their infrastructure. Bitcoin has suffered hugely, a trillion wiped off value and a rotation of cash fro retail to institution. Same will happen here if punters sell as the free float will become smaller.

Money to be made !!!

I’m glad you gave that feedback Un ! protect you from yourself ….lol . Maybe PFF, patronising fickle fecker.

Et al,

This isn’t a game and serious money to be made or lost. Easy for the knockers to start scaremongering or should I say those who want to see a bit of wealth transfer. If you’re long here, you know the upside case and the risks. Kaz has to continue to trade and every day out of action is damaging the economy. There is huge investment from the world, US, Europe, China, Japan etc. China are building relationships ‘the silk road’ wanting to flood Kaz with Chinese products, the critical oil exports and pipelines. Russia will want to exert some influence for helping out but Kaz has spent 30 years away from Imperial Russia and the West, China and all foreign investors of which there are many, will be involved. Putin will use it as negotiation, there’s no doubt about that.

The military and police are dealing with this revolt and each day that passes will see improvement and it’s just a matter of time before Casper back in production. The revolts won’t continue and authoritarian rule will resume. The people are unhappy with many things but largely standard of living, the system, it’s corrupt and there is a huge divide from Rich to poor but hey, that’s the way of the world in most Eastern block countries. I had a software business in Romania and Bulgaria and the corruption off the scale, everyone in authority wants a slice of the action and sadly the few control the game and you have no choice but to confirm.

Hopefully there will be change but to the stance of the govt is pretty brutal and the Soviets will definitely not want the Kazakhs getting unruly and have to contain the risk of it spreading across the border into Russia.

Things will get back on line, industry will resume and maybe a few concessions made to the oil workers although I’m not convinced. Kuat an Oligarch being chased out of town…lol, if you believe that then you really do need to run for the hills.

I see the knockers will be appearing to bless us with their views and as always there’s 2 sides to the coin and you have to make your call as this is the time where real money will change hands. I don’t see the big holders selling and this game is controlled by PIs and we will decide where it goes next.

HG, need to change your broker. I could sell up to 500k and 1.1m most of the day , 800k at the close at 3.55p.

Yep, we’ve all got to make our own decisions on this so you’ve decided not for you, it won’t be for everyone .

Fickle Fecker, fecked a few feckers, a few feckers, fickle fecker fecked.

Everybody entitled to do what they want and listen or take advice from who they want, it's only one thing that counts DYOR and beware of sharks :)

https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/12/17/kazakhstan-celebrates-30-years-of-independence
https://www.euronews.com/2021/12/20/kazakhstan-holds-investment-forum-to-win-over-multinationals

Only a few weeks ago, Kaz conference celebrating the leadership stability ! if they knew what was coming ! Also the many investment forums attracting the foreign investment essential to continued economic growth and that's not under Imperial Russia. They have been a stable home for investment and they need to get back to that immediately to allay the fears of future investors. Oil players won't change, they know the game providing Tokayev plays his cards right.

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-01-07/kazakhstan-president-orders-troops-to-shoot-to-kill-without-warning

If it's shoot to kill as per above link and no talks with terrorists and murderers, you know where this is going and swiftly. Blaming the infiltrators, the west, the Islamists etc, same old, same old. Let's hope the bloodshed stops and innocent people getting killed.

Casper could be up and running next week and i'm sure KO and co are speaking to their staff re remuneration etc if they have challenges internally. KO will have an opportunity to look after his staff if he isn't already. Maybe good things come from this unrest ?