Member Info for KumKuat

Badge,

Absolutely . All about reserves and the company makers are the deeps, 100%. Shallows will give great cash flow but c25m P2 will get us to 10p ish but the fireworks come from the deeps. We all get to make a very healthy return here providing the geopolitical tensions don’t spoil the party .

TT

Buzz,

The pressure doesn’t make sense. Yes, pressure and heat have been the problems or should I say, getting the right mud balance to deal with pressure. As we know, historic drilling has been with heavier muds using Barite and net result has been a loss of drilling fluids into the reservoir hence the blockages to date.

We know that A5 has flowed at 3800bopd on a 10mm choke before reducing down to 1000bopd on a 4mm choke. Drilling fluids being the reason for loss of pressure and then lost metal bits, Clive’s packed lunch etc.

I suspect that it’s the same problem as all the other wells ie lost drilling fluids leading to a loss of pressure or it could be being managed very carefully on a small choke but at 120bopd, that’s very low so I suspect it’s the same problem. Interesting to see Clive saying that the initial results are encouraging so hopefully Shin is managing the process.

As already stated, such a low key RNS and obviously forgot about barge, latest shallow spuds, A7, 802 and 3AB !

Crude prices may not be helping sp but the cash is building and they have a hectic year on the operational front planned. So much to report on and all of it will have a material effect on sp. 3.75p ???, I really don’t get it.

Try again.

https://*********************/companies/uk/caspian-sunrise-plc/research/whireland/wh-ireland-caspian-sunrise-casp-deep-well-production-at-bng/41_2022012503301126685

Good to see some commentary. As stated they know the structure flows as evidenced by A5 but that was at shallower interval. We don’t know which interval has been tested to deliver the current 120bopd but that’s the point, we don’t have the detail, yet. The great news, it’s flowing for several days and always good to have a mention of Tengiz in any article.

Can’t believe the do languishing at this level ?

I don’t subscribe to Brendan Long’s Research Tree as it’s on a subscription basis but below is the link that was posted by TB on ADVFN and a little more commentary from Spangle re the info you can’t see. Good to see Casper getting some coverage anyway -;

https://*********************/companies/uk/caspian-sunrise-plc/research/whireland/wh-ireland-caspian-sunrise-casp-deep-well-production-at-bng/41_2022012503301126685

Rest of article from Spsngle -;

‘Togglebrush - apologies, I missed all the "excitement" yesterday. The WHI teaser you refer to was about half the whole issue. Here's the pertinent part you couldn't get to We believe the Airshagyl field has a success case recoverable oil estimate of 305m barrels of oil (WHI estimate based on an estimated 58 square kilometre structure). Establishing long-term commercial production rates has proven to be frustrating from the company’s deep asset; however, this was also the case for the nearby super-giant Tengiz field (circa forty kilometres away). We believe it is early days, but encouraging, to see the Deep Well A8 sustain production for several days. We know the field can produce at significantly higher rates from prior testing; therefore, our principal focus of attention is on the stability of the ongoing production rate. We anticipate the market will bid into today’s positive news. ‘

Or $90 even.

MLQ,

Shin comments ? have I missed something ?

Gritster,

Crude isn’t affecting sp but it’s fantastic for cash flow and ultimately for all shareholders as it means that they are funded to exploit the asset base, first time since incorporation. As bank balance builds, far less likelihood of dilution, even for infrastructure spend eg pipeline investment.

65k bopd = 2100 bopd but I assume that 5 days were lost during troubles, probably more on production I suspect but without detail, mushrooms again. Capacity in Dec after adding 1600 from 154 and 153 was allegedly 3000bipd and I don’t believe we’ve lost 500bopd through depletion but yet again, no detail to go on.

Troubles and Ukraine geopolitical tensions are definitely factors depressing sp but not much we can do about that. Loads of upside based on fundamental case, I will continue to ficus on that .

75 posts, that was a busy day yesterday and little to show for it on the sp front.

A vague RNS on A8 that left us in the dark, 5 weeks after initial 5m perf. Obviously have had problems on getting it to flow but without proper info, we’re in mushroom mode. What interval tested ? the depth, how many perfs, what choke, oil quality API etc. None of the above were provided and only detail is that we have is that it’s flowing at a rate 120bopd for a few days and our Chairman believes early signs are encouraging .

This RNS was downbeat, deliberately so as a result of the recent unrest ? Previous RNSs in December were much more positive and it feels as if this has been deliberately dumbed down.

Making the comparison on annual production numbers was odd too. If you wanted to talk it up you’d have added the fact that 2020 average crude price was $40 and and now more than double that.

I was hoping for real positives on A8 but nobody can tell what this well is capable of yet. Have they been clearing lost drilling fluids and blockages ? The fact that it’s flowing is a big step forward in my book. 2 more intervals to perforate and the market hasn’t got enough info to assess the potential. It’s not the revenue generation from this well that gives the sp a real kick, it’s the reserves upgrade, 100s of millions of barrels or more.

Sp deflated, probably not helped by the geopolitical situation but the current sp is a joke. Company has already positioned a hectic H1 operational schedule but nothing mentioned, most odd and as stated, I believe it’s all being dumbed down.

Undervalued on shallows alone and ridiculous upside to come. Maybe KO wants to get his debt/equity swap away before this flys ? who knows but one thing is for sure, it won’t stay down here for much longer !!

Edit, bopm, not per day, that would be nice.

Company is in a far better position than at anytime in its history but disappointed with that poor RNS from a lack of clear info perspective.

I didn’t see much at all from that RNS and that’s why the sp hasn’t moved. I’ll say it as I see it, regardless of my stockpile !

An RNS that was lacking real detail and the content I was expecting.

A8 deep
One interval perforated, flowing at 120 bopd for several days. Perforations ? how many ? which interval ? depth, choke, quality of oil produced etc. These deep wells cost c$5m to drill and I believe they need to produce at 1000bopd min to be classed as commercial, there’s the reserves CPR to be done too. They’ve had almost 5 weeks since A8 initial perforation but today’s RNS does not give the info needed to assess any potential so yet again it’s a Carverspeak special and obfuscation continues. The good news, it’s flowing but as communicated in the past, we can’t trust the info. Not much that can be said until we know more.

Shallows
65k bopd whereas capacity should deliver 90k so they’ve lost 25kbopd somewhere. Yep, they’ve had a revolt and we don’t know how much that production has been interrupted ? yet again, no detailed info and probably producing at 2.4-2.5k bopd . Have to presume that revenues at 70:30 split but yet again no info.

Other deeps ? A7 spud, 802 spud date ?

No info on other wells on the MJF/SY as I and many expected ?

Barge ?

3AB

A poor RNS, as if they didn’t want to shout from the rooftops. Political unrest affecting reporting ? Personally I don’t think so. Back to minimal info and impossible to assess real situation.

The good news is that revenues are increasing, the company is now very profitable and are funded to drill more wells. The not so good, we are still in the dark on A8 and the deep program. If A8 doesn’t deliver, what’s the point in drilling A7 and A8. Do the remedial work on the wells drilled to date and drill more shallows inc the new structure at SY.

Was hoping for a clear, detailed RNS but after today, I’m back in mushroom mode and none the wiser.

Tick, tock.

910k buys, 370k sells and down. Bid weak at 200k max sell @3.7p so I expect to see a chunk sell at some point.

Market in sell off mode and we’re retracing with the general malaise.

TT

There is a real disconnect between current sp and current fundamental value. The general market has been in sell off mode as riskier plays are dumped. Crypto demise hasn’t helped either, especially for those who are leveraged and hold equities too.

Crude price averaging above $80 for 2 months now and traded between $65 and $89 over the last year. Great revenue for Casper and with oil prices set to continue at these levels, a huge opp for Caspian to benefit.

Maybe the lack of buying at this level is down to the troubles and us not knowing what’s going on with the Kaz elites like Kairat and Raushan, that’s one of the risks to the investment. We’re a minnow currently but that could soon change, especially if A8 is positive and I’m hoping that the recent share options awards are as a result of Shin making the difference.

As many have highlighted, 2022 is going to be a very busy year on the operational front and I still can’t believe why the sp is 3.85p. T/over $75m v m/cap of $105m and we have 25 years licence to exploit the reserves. A huge price/value disconnect with a hectic operational schedule.

Got to pop soon :)

Smarty 0.51% :)

Un,

I can do an updated list ;)

The ownership has changed and probably will continue to change. Current share ownership estimates -;

KO clan 48%
Daehann 11%
Al Marri 10.5%
Other Kazakhs 13% - Raushan, Mr K, MrZ, MrT etc
Koreans 5.5%
PIs 12%

Almost 40% held by Koreans. Arabs and PIs by my estimates are down to 12%.

Let’s hope these Kazakhs don’t end up being a bunch of Wagners and a Byrd in the hand is not better than 2 in Debussy.

All the assets are in the Casper shell, ducks lining up and at some point they need to fly. Back to the G&T :)

Off topic.

First day in Gran Canaria for a winter break, first one for 2 years. Airport process going at Gatwick and Las Palmas was excellent. Less hassle than the usual holiday even with Covid, excellent.

Got to GC and booked into a nice hotel but sadly it’s deserted. How they manage to make it work when only 25% occupied ! 5 restaurants normally and only 2 open, 3 bars closed and no waiter/waitress service. Let’s hope we are close to the end of Covid or should I say close to living with it as we do with other Coronaviruses .

Look after Casper whilst I’m away :)

There’s a link to contact the Director General. Send him a note and ask him what he’ll pay for 10m shares :).

Meanwhile, Crude through $89 and heading to $90, crazy !

Custodians of 225m shares, all gains tax free :)

He did and he’s well underwater so why flog them, maybe the answer he hasn’t, he’s moved them to some friendly Arab pals as nominees ?

Badge, nope, we’re in the dark. If they were your shares and you knew the sp was going north, why would you sell them ? Unless he’s in financial strife, I don’t get it unless it’s a tax manoeuvre. If the sp wasn’t going up, why would you buy the stock? As usual, in the dark.

Some thoughts, questions .

Do Aidana and Aibek live in the UAE ?
Is Kairat living in the UAE ?
Is Clive living in the UAE ?
Are they all living in the UAE ??

Why would Kairat sell his shares if the sp was going to multibag ?
Why would anyone buy the stock if it wasn’t going to multibag ?

My humble opinion -;
Kairat was our FD, a financial brain and I’m sure he’s not letting a few million escape. As we know, our KO has been doing the tax planning and moving all the stock to Aibek and Aidana. Kairat now selling stock to Arabs and there is a zero tax regime in Dubai on all earnings and investments, no CGT. Is this a tax wheeze by Kairat, transferring it to nominees in Dubai ? Knowing that all elites are going to feel the pinch if they stay in the country, time to move the stock to tax free havens, can’t see him letting it go at 4p, that makes no sense to me unless he needs the money or the sp isn’t going up. The latter doesn’t make sense either as the Al- Marris would not purchase it.

All the assets are in Kaz, they’ve loaded it up and KO’s last duck is the debt conversion.

The ducks are lined up ready for the move north IMO and won’t be long before this starts to get properly interesting.