Member Info for KumKuat

Wasn’t the RNS I was expecting but the more I think about it the more I like it. No disclosure as to price so not a clue as to the value of the deal.

Meanwhile, Crude chart has been one direction since the $18 low and still trending north, higher lows and higher highs and likely to continue. Casper’s bank balance is building and that enables them to fund more wells to build production quickly. The barge commentary was very positive and then no update, personally I believe a deal is close or closed already.

Fundamentals strengthening daily and market not recognising it but it will,

It is interesting. Remember, Kairat dumped stock and didn’t disclose so personally I’m happy that he’s out and 3 new Arabs invested. I don’t know what the relationship was like between Orazimans and Kairat but obviously not part of future plans. Who knows, he may have been on Tokayevs hit list and needed a sharp exit. Can’t find much on Kairat anymore. He was President of the 2 largest Kaz banks back in the day, Halyk and ATF.
On balance I think it’s encouraging news as it brings in new investors with money and may help come eventual sale.
As always, mushrooms in the dark.
TT

We say that Crude is not affecting the sp yet. At $87.72 ! it’s definitely affecting the bank balance and enabling Casper to accelerate operations. Not stopping anytime soon and $100+ is looking a reality at some juncture.

Some positive news would be very welcome at this juncture. Positive deep and this spikes and those sitting on the sides could miss a bag or 3, depends on the magnitude of the news. If not positive, an accelerated schedule for the shallow program would be good, purchase more rigs, throw in a barge contract etc.

TT

Somm,

I think we’re at x purposes. Every well following A5 is an appraisal.

20p+ on first deep well not the structure that needs to be proved up. All ifs currently but hey, I’ll go with £1.07

Meanwhile Crude at $86.50, t/over at $70m+ loads to look forward too. Money to be made folks :)

Going to 10p on a deep success, keep taking the pills!! Forget moving the structure to production, a flowing deep will take this into the 20p range and beyond as excitement builds on the other deeps to drill and the remedial work on other wells. 50m horizon of oil between 5046 and probably 5300m not 5450m as the next 2 wells are to 5300m. Get 2 or 3 flowing and then the CPR, this will get silly. There’s minimal value built in on the shallows let alone the deeps and other assets.

Subtle deramping or should I say not so subtle .

From the recent interims.

Assessed historic costs

The big disappointment in the period under review was the much delayed court ruling denying our appeal against the charges assessed and levied by the Kazakh authorities to cover past state contributions to developing assets. This charge typically arises when a Contract Area, or in our case a structure on a Contract Area, moves from an appraisal licence to an export licence.



At dispute was the State's assertion that 100% of the assessed amounts from the whole BNG Contract Area - which currently covers an area of approximately 1,000 sq km - should fall entirely on the MJF structure which at approximately 13 sq km represents just 1.3% of the total BNG Contract Area.



Our appeal was the final appeal permitted and following the court's ruling we shall have to continue to pay approximately $800,000 each quarter for the next 8 years, funds which could have been spent on further development.



On a positive note, any other structures on the BNG Contract Area which move to export licence such as South Yelemes or either of the two existing deep structures, Airshagyl or Yelemes Deep, would be free from further assessed historic cost recoveries.

Market has got the sp wrong. PIs control the price so we are the market and we dictate the value. I'd love to know who actually plays the game, probably less than 50 people and the only time that changes is when there's hot money in and out as a result of sp hitting the daily winners list or as a result of TA indicators probably. The daily volume without news input, is probably sub 1m a day and i suspect there's less than 50 people influencing this stock, crazy when you think there's 2.1bn shares in circulation. Less than 15% in PI hands and i believe a large % of those are inactive. I know 4 large holders that are not trading this stock and i'm sure there are many others like them who must be doing the same as there are c 270m shares in PI hands.

The fundamentals are the fundamentals and we can all work them out but they're not driving the sp currently as the unrest has instigated a sell off. Some are probably selling as a result of the unrest, some as they don't believe A8 will flow but the value on shallows alone give us considerable upside.

No investment is risk free but for those of us who believe that the unrest settles down, that the horizontal programme success continues, that the barge will get rented, we will make good money. 3AB will be provide a huge cash injection if successful and the deeps are the real company maker. Even if deep program is a failure, the cash from shallows will give them options for more acreage etc.

T/over $70m+ (annualised) currently and licences giving 25 years of production. Likely to double as a minimum with shallow program and maybe more as SY is an unknown.

Current market, very well bid and can sell 7 figures so somebody wants a few more cheapies.

TT

If Russia invades Ukraine, you will see $90+ very quickly putting huge pressure on the system.Gas prices will spiral as pipelines through Ukraine will probably be affected and Nord Stream 2 not an option as sanctions will stop that option although not complete yet. Opec will counter to increase supply but fuel bills will increase and it’ll affect all of Europe. Kaz govt will cap increases and maybe the Kaz elites will play the game realising that any more unrest could see their positions threatened ?

Re oil and last hurrah, we’ve got another 30 years IMO. Yep, we’ve got the green agenda. supply will reduce over time as exploration activity stops,supporting infrastructure and services decline but demand could see oil over $100 for many years to come.

Casper are in prime position to take advantage. A minnow that is funded and has the assets to exploit at a time where crude prices are going to be high for an extended period.

The troubles have taken some of the sheen off the opportunity but positive results will give them the opp to start the PR engine. As RichyP posted the other day on CAML, it would be good for Casper to do the same thing, to reassure investors maybe after some more good results :)

Crude over $86, starting to get silly .

I also thought that the move to drill A7 & 802 to 5300m was as a result of the findings at A8. I'm sure they'd have changed TD if oil was found to 5300m so i'm expecting to see any success announced between 4500 and 5300m. Why drill the additional deeps to 5300m and so quickly ? I've given my thoughts and they're obviously not giving up on the deeps. Let's hope our Mr Shin really is making that difference.

News next week ? if so, let's hope it's really positive.

Somm,

Much that i'd like to see all buys, i believe most of the trades if not all were sells today hence the bid being so weak.

As per 22/12 RNS, remedial work on A5/6 & 801 on hold, i believe that's the right move with A8 in progress and 2 new deeps to drill plus the rigs being used for the horizontals. I believe they'll be buying more rigs now that cash in bank improving and enables them to really accelerate the drilling program. The barge deal would be a great development as that gives them even more options.

A raving buy for me until i really see otherwise.

'Work to progress existing deep wells A5, A6 and 801 remains on hold'.

Ah, i assumed that 4.23ps were sells as the bid was so weak @ 4.2p for 20k max. So real market 4.2p-4.23p, sells 916k, buys 142k. Next move down based on bid ask and we're almost at the same price pre the 153/SY news, hey ho .

A red day, all trades are sells and 1.058m sold, £45k. More upside for those who are investing on improving fundamentals v those who don't like the geopolitical risk, i'd say. We've all got to weigh up the risk/reward position and hey, that's what makes a market. The view of most of the bbs was very positive before the riots and all looking forward to news going forward, lots of it as per my brief summary below.

Down to Caspian to continue their good run of form and continue to strengthen the business. Each to their own .

Lots to be announced this month and that operational activity will continue with gusto this year, funded by the cash flow from the shallow wells. Crude prices @ $85 are helping with that process and looking at current forecasts, they range from $65-$100+, probably end up somewhere in the middle as an average for 2022.

News due this month

A8 perforation results
152 drilling update
142 existing well, 600m horizontal drill should've started
A7 spud
Barge charter status
802 spud
3AB update

I'm sure the chaos has slowed the administrative tasks, the regulatory bits will probably take longer but Kaz need to keep the wheels of industry going. The one thing Casper can conrol is the drill bit and there is plenty of that planned this year. 2 deeps in addition to A8 and existing 3 wells. Shallow program on MJF, how many wells this year ? maybe 10. Add in SY horizontal plan, unknown at this juncture but a chance to build reserves.

Barge news must be imminent too. Approx $6m pm is a difference place to where they've been historically and enables them to really ramp up the production effort. Onwards and upwards.

TT.

Morning Mike,

Oil forecasting, you have to be clairvoyant to get it right as there are so many factors that can affect it. As you say, it’s all about supply and demand and which one wins out. Supply will definitely reduce going forward and Biden strategy to curtail exploration etc will be great contributor to future reserves. Opec and their ability to increase supply when needed ? How much oil do they have left to be able to turn up the taps when needed ? A fascinating topic and in a world without Covid, the demand element may surprise to the upside but hey, so many other factors that could push it the other way.

Bid is surprisingly strong today, 300k @ 4.32p. We’re underpriced at current levels but the political background is obviously affecting investment confidence and only time will fix this. Needs continued good news, the PR to follow and if the sp doesn’t react , buy some more because the penny will drop .

Crude over $85 and Casper filling the coffers , bodes well for future investment :)

https://www.euronews.com/2022/01/13/russian-led-forces-begin-withdrawing-from-kazakhstan

Thanks.

Very candid and as stated, nobody has a clue what happens politically, yet. CAML are a non Kaz owned biz or should I say 1 Kaz Director. Casper are Kaz owned and hopefully they navigate any political upheaval. Tokayev already stating that Kaz Elites give back to the State that made them, not a bad thing in my book.

It’ll still be an authoritarian structure and I believe little chance of any opposition and democracy. Appease the populous by capping fuel, increasing wages and improving standard of living.

Tokayev won’t rock the boat too much as he’ll be vulnerable and he’ll want to benefit financially as did his predecessor Naz.

Out most of the afternoon so didn't see the trading. Last time i looked it was 250k sale @ 4.25, 4.35p to buy so don't know if the 115k was a buy, probably was, the late reported 500k @ 17.09 ?

All small beer until next update.

TT