Member Info for KumKuat

I don't believe RNS will do much as they can't forecast the future.

Kazakhstan is the richest of the 5 FSU states and the living standards higher than the other 4 states. Lifting the LPG price cap has kicked this off but the people want an end to corruption and want a better standard of living. An oil rich state where many of the inhabitants live in poverty.

There is no opposition to the Tokayev regime and this riot will ultimately be dealt with by force as they don't have many options available. Canning the govt, commitments to drop LPG prices and improve prices aren't cutting it but this will end up in bloodshed and it will be a mix of iron hand and concessions to resolve the situation.

It's an authoritative regime and what FSU state is any different. The elections are uncontested and the people have no choice now, maybe in the future if opposition is allowed to exist.

Worst case, revolution and nationalisation of all large industry, nope that's not happening. This gets resolved with the only tools that Tokayev has and that's with the police and armed forces.

I too have had enough of Kazakh politics today.

This is a Warren Buffet moment imo, buy when peeps are fearful, welcome to the stock market !!

I did write to Clive this am to ask his thoughts on the government resignation, protests and likely disruption . His response below which echoes my thoughts.

My initial thoughts remain, this will be dealt with as they've dealt with every recent riot and that the Oil industry is critical to to Kazakhstan and it's inhabitants.

Clive response
"My understanding was a change in the Government was expected although the fuel protests were not.
We believe while there may be some short term disruption it is unlikely to be significant given the importance of the sector to the Kazakh economy."

Clive

The govt was due for change. Oil is their biggest asset and their economy depends on it.

Not saying it’s not risk, it is risk but my view is that the storm will pass as always. This isn’t a a fragile state as in many countries where there are risks of military takeover etc.

Inevitable volatility in stocks but one thing is gir dure, oil production will continue .

We all have appetite for risk and peeps need to do what they have to do. Kaz is an oil rich country and its primary revenue source. They need to maintain stability to continue to attract the hundreds of billions of foreign investment.

I see it as a major buy opportunity but I have an appetite for risk. Let’s see what transpires.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/01/04/asia/kazakhstan-protest-emergency-intl-hnk/index.html

Always risk when dealing in FSU counties but Kaz hav managed successfully for 30 years as an independent state. They are an oil rich state and desperately need the oil revenues from the big players and to sustain the billions of dollars of investment from multi-nationals, projects that involve US, Russia, France, China, Korea etc. Oil production isn’t stopping, nor are Caspian revenues.

An opportunity for those with an appetite for risk to take advantage.

2m bought ,3.4m sold and down 12%.

Storm in a teacup and opportunity to add. Unfortunately leveraged plays will suffer and the MMS will feed on the volatility. I’ve added another 120k, and had to do it on 4 trades and one was a F&K.

Re news delay to April, nah. This will be old news shortly.

How goes it affect Casper ? Current oil revenues of c $67m and c $6.5m of that from domestic tariff based at $20. Even at half that price, Casper would only lose 5% of revenues.

This has given many the opportunity to feed at the trough again .

Agree. I’ve added 125k but had to pay 4.364p.

Re news release delayed. Yes they will wait for storm to blow over . What is this ? a great opp to pinch some more cheap stock !!!

Yep, same old.

Has shaken a few holders this am and we’ll find out whether there’s going to be another top up opportunity for some. Some may take the opp to release a few and possibly buy back cheaper but this will be bought up as too much imminent news .

TT

Yep unrest due to fuel price increases. An authoritarian society that bans dissent but they have had unrest even in Nazabayevs time.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018–2020_Kazakh_protests

Regarding our domestic prices , Casper have probably benefited recently but I don’t see how it affects their business as Donesic accounts for 10% of total revenues.

If it does affect sp, fill your boots.

Yep, that's what i'm doing BUT i can't do that til April and the sp will be 10p+ by then so not going to get all in.

Un, good to see Crude back in the $80s , all we need now is that first deep.

DM,

Not to to the ISA allowances but hopefully the share price !!

DM,

Old Toad does have 8 figures and just a smidge over 1m sitting outside the family ISAS. £80k allowance to play with which will accommodate c 1.6m but i don't believe that'll be the case come April .

Latest headlines below. I don't see them doing much tightening up. The only area that could suffer is hospitality/entertainment but i still believe he holds firm.

Latest updates: Imperial College epidemiologist Neil Ferguson ‘cautiously optimistic’ but says weeks ahead could still be difficult for NHS services

- Millions of UK critical workers could get priority Covid tests
- Omicron infections may have plateaued in London, Neil Ferguson says
- Heads warn of weeks of Omicron disruption in English schools
- Coronavirus global updates – live
LIVE Updated 7m ago

? You've got me there Somm. If i can buy over 1m shares for £20k, let me know where i can get them please ;)

To add, i do have a little problem as i have acquired 7 figures of stock that sits outside my ISAs and have 4 options to transfer it all to via BednIsa in April but i don't believe i'll be lucky enough to fit it all in unfortunately.

ODS,

A sensible strategy. Could the sp pull back on a poor A8 or on the absence of news for a few days/weeks ? very possibly but i believe you'd see healthy buying, there's too much on the go in the near term.

Peeps will trade it as someone stated the other day, bought @ 3.5p, out in the 5's and looking to do the same. Personally, i'm hoping that opportunity doesn't arise and the next news on A8 breaks us out into a new trading range. I still maintain they'd have waited to release SY/153 news if they thought that A8 was going to be poor, same goes for the barge.

As always we get to see shortly but i'd rather be buying now knowing that next news could take it into double figures as opposed to waiting for a 10-20% decline. The trend in 2022 is northwards, the pace and magnitude of that movement sits with Casper.

Is 2022 going to be the year that Caspian final delivers the promise from the BNG acreage. Renamed Caspian Sunrise in March 2017 after 10 years of failure as Roxi Petroleum, known to their ardent followers as ‘Poxy Roxy’.

So much planned for 2022, a quick recap -;

Deeps
A8
Drilled to 5450m, found 140m of potential oil from 3 or 4 intervals from 4500m. Awaiting for the imminent result from first 5m perforation with more to follow.

A7
Probably spudded last week and TD of 5300m by end April 2022.

802
To follow in Q1 and time to TD @ 5300m only 4 months

A5/6/801
All drilled and awaiting remedial treatments this year, possible sidetrack, new acid treatments to get the blockages cleared. All on hold currently ? could they be waiting for A8 result and maybe all can be drilled to 5300m ?

Shallows
MJF
9 wells drilled and original plan was 24 wells. We’re delivering c 1300 bopd from these wells but horizontal drilling at new well 154 has added c 600bopd and previous well 153 which is now delivering an additional 650bopd. Current capacity from existing wells is 3000bopd, original estimates from 24 wells was 8000bopd. Planning to redrill all existing wells with the horizontal approach and maybe a few more new wells that will be drilled horizontally.

SYelemes
300bopd from old Soviet wells and going to redrill them with the same horizontal approach as with MJF, this is likely to far higher production and a possible reserves upgrade from the structure.

Caspian Explorer
Last communication in August stated that they were in advanced talks with a large international oil company. If the deal happens (ed), it would be announced in Q1 and likely annual revenues of $25m or maybe a sale of the barge, maybe $75-100m

3AB
Framed out 15% and partner is waiting for regulatory green light to proceed with drilling. If successful the agreement is to sell their remaining 85% for a negotiated sum, maybe $100m+

Other opportunities
Caspian have always stated that they want to expand their presence in Kazakhstan and Central Asia. If they generate enough cash from existing wells, they will have options to build their portfolio.

Caspian Explorer May also present opportunities for Caspian to take a % in offshore projects in the N Caspian.

The deeps are the company makers and if they manage to flow all of them, likely production could be 15000bopd, more importantly, what would the CPR show as reserves, a lot will depend on the the appraisal wells.

In addition, the current shallows, could they deliver 8000bopd as per initial expectations set.

Not going to boring boys and girls and we definitely have a great chance of making some money.

A8 well result is very important and could be the catalyst for great things this year. The darling of AIM in 2022, quite possibly :)

Oil is very difficult to forecast but providing Covid is coming to an end, the immediate future is a higher price. The transition to a green economy will take decades and there will be divestment but that will push up prices as supply wanes. $100 oil could be the future for this decade but as always, so many factors in play.

Casper need to take advantage now and that’s why I find it interesting that they are pushing ahead with the deeps as opposed to delaying and putting all efforts into pumping up shallow production revenues. Why would you continue with the ‘money pit strategy if current program to date is non commercial. FOMO ? Can’t be. Is A8 going to be the first positive well drilled to a commercial conclusion without incident ? we’ll find out this month, hopefully initial positive developments this week ;)

Down to Caspian to do the talking now

....lol, let’s get the icing on first :)

A8 if positive, is the company maker if they can flow it. A poor result and sp retraces briefly before going again but I don’t believe it will be poor. About time we got lucky.